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$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rises to Seven-Month High (August/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY August/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in August, its highest level since January, as retailers gradually passed higher import tariffs on to consumers. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, the most since January, above both July’s 0.2% increase and forecasts of 0.3%. Core inflation held steady, rising 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, matching July’s pace.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$ALLE (Allegion plc) - Long SetupTrading Idea: NYSE:ALLE (Allegion plc) - Long Setup 🎯 Idea: LONG ⏰ Timeframe: Daily 📊 Pattern: Bullish Breakout from Consolidation Fundamental Context: Fundamental Score: 4/9 (Neutral). Growth: Weak Revenue + Moderate Net Income Growth YoY. Balance Sheet: Moderate (Debt Score: 7/10). Valuation: Fairly Valued on P/E; Overvalued on P/B and P/S. Technical Setup: Trend (D1): Bullish ✅ Catalyst: Recent RSI2 Connors Buy Signal (confirmed oversold bounce). Entry: $176.09 (Break above recent consolidation high). Stop Loss (SL): $165.29 (Below key support and the 50-period SMA). Take Profit (TP): $198.16 (Previous resistance target + Measured Move). Momentum: RSI (62) in healthy bullish territory, supporting further upside. Risk Management: Risk/Reward (R:R): 1:2.0 Position size based on the risk between entry and stop. Summary: A technical breakout play following an oversold signal, targeting a continuation of the primary bullish trend towards new highs. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your own trades and investments. Past performance is never indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. #TradingView #ALLE #Long #Security #Hardware #RSI2 #Connors #Breakout #TradingSetup
NYSE:ALLELong
by shortermtrader
Good time to get out of the MARKET (Too Heated)The market has never been this expensive and retailers are being the exit liquidity for whales / institutions. Almost like many people are just sitting a sipping away on an active volcano. The market could be jumping for a few days, but a rate cut confirms that the market is weak and needs a boost / help. Unfortunately, it's too little too late. Most macros show a clear sign of stress, which is not being reflected in the market (for now). Don't get too complacent...the VIX will spike at astronomical levels when the hammer falls. Best of luck!
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
1
$LDOS (Leidos Holdings) - Long SetupTrading Idea: NYSE:LDOS (Leidos Holdings) - Long Setup 🎯 Idea: LONG ⏰ Timeframe: Daily 📊 Pattern: Bullish Continuation + RSI2 Connors Buy Signal Fundamental Context: Fundamental Score: 5/9 (Neutral). Growth: Moderate Revenue + Strong Net Income Growth YoY. Balance Sheet: Good (Debt Score: 8/10). Valuation: Fairly Valued on P/E; Overvalued on P/B and P/S. Technical Setup: Trend (D1): Bullish ✅ Catalyst: Recent RSI2 Connors Buy Signal (oversold bounce). Entry: $183.30 (Pullback to support & confluence zone). Stop Loss (SL): $173.70 (Below key swing low). Take Profit (TP): $202.50 (Previous resistance target). Momentum: MACD hovering near zero, poised for upward crossover. Risk Management: Risk/Reward (R:R): 1:2.0 Position size accordingly. Summary: Buying the pullback in a bullish trend following a short-term oversold RSI2 signal, targeting a move to the next resistance level. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your own trades and investments. Past performance is never indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. #TradingView #LDOS #Long #Defense #GovernmentIT #RSI2 #Connors #TradingSetup
NYSE:LDOSLong
by shortermtrader
Brent to FALL up to 62Key factors influencing the market: Anticipation of the OPEC+ decision at this weekend’s meeting — a potential further increase in production could put additional pressure on prices. Excess crude inventories in the U.S. — commercial stockpiles have grown, lowering demand expectations. Weak economic backdrop — signs of cooling, especially in the U.S., are softening demand for energy Demand/supply imbalance risks — despite the potential for lower prices, geopolitics and demand from strategic reserves (e.g., China) could limit the downside
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTBRENTShort
by Rosgastrade
Gold Analysis for the Morning of September 11thAfter the CPI data was released, gold prices surged as high as $30 before retreating. This indicates strong short-term selling pressure, and compared to the previous period of extreme bullish momentum, the short-term trend has clearly weakened. However, gold remains in a bullish trend. While it hasn't reached a new all-time high, the 5-day moving average remains strong. A drop below $3,610 would signal a short-term bearish trend. Currently, the gold market has entered a high-range range, presenting opportunities for both long and short positions. For detailed real-time strategies, please follow my updates. Gold Strategy This morning, I recommend opening a short position in the 3,640-3,650 range, anticipating a price correction, with targets around 3,620 and 3,615.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Violet_Trading_Strategy
CPI in Focus – Gold’s Sell Setup ActivatedGold is showing signs of weakness after failing to sustain above 3674. Any pullback toward 3635 – 3650 can provide a good sell opportunity, with confirmation below 3617 accelerating downside. Bears will eye 3599 – 3581 as the next key levels, while major support lies at 3540. Today’s US CPI data will be the key driver — if inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower. On the other hand, a softer CPI print may support gold with a bounce toward 3635–3650 before fresh selling pressure resumes. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: 3640 – 3650 - Support: 3618 - 3600 📌 Sell Zone & Sell Trigger: - Sell Zone: 3640 – 3650 area - Sell Trigger: If price retests 3635 – 3650 and rejects with bearish candles → short entries valid or Confirmation break below 3617 will add more bearish pressure. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
BTC - Crash Path PossibilitiesI expect Bitcoin to crash hard today, and here is a zoomed in look at my potential pathways. NOTE - See linked related idea on DXY to make sense of this more Beginning with most likely in my own opinion, to least likely: Option 1: 114,200 to 35,000 - Short 35,000 to 85,000-86,000 - Long 85,000 to 8,000 - Short 8,000 - Long Entry Option 2: 114,000-115,000 to 18,000-19,500 - Short 20,000 - Long Entry Option 3: 114,200 to 43,000 - Short 43,000 to 77,000 - Long 77,000 to 8,000 - Short 8,000 - Long Entry Strategy: - Regardless of option I am short Bitcoin - I will watch for a sudden crash initiate today - I will first watch for a hold and bounce at 35,000 - closing 75% of my short at 45,000 (I expect wick to be very fast and hard to trade exact numbers) - If we see a bounce at 35,000 - I will open a hedge long at that level - Repeat first four steps if we drop below 30,000, looking for the correct bottom and closing short accordingly - Safest option is low leverage short and spot buys at the bottom levels Thanks to those who have been following me and supporting my ideas. I know I’m the only one speaking about this. Happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
14
EUR/CAD – Watching for ContinuationEUR/CAD has been grinding higher as CAD weakness continues to play out, mainly driven by softer oil prices and the Bank of Canada's dovish lean. Meanwhile, the euro is holding steady with the ECB staying cautious on further cuts, giving this pair a solid bullish tilt. This can play out 1 of 2 ways, a sweep to the downside to catch liquidity before breaking through recent highs (best). Or we may see bullishness from here in which case the re test of the broken area will be the optimal entry. Trade safe, Trade smart, Trade Drippy!
Long
by Drippysnipes
EUR/USD Eyes 1.1790 as Fresh U.S. Dollar Data Weakens GreenbackThe dollar softened in early Thursday trade after fresh U.S. macro data signaled cooling inflation and reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year. At the same time, the European Central Bank held rates steady and avoided a strongly dovish tone, allowing the euro to regain momentum. US CPI Surprise: Latest print came in below forecasts, pushing Treasury yields lower and pressuring the dollar. Fed Rate-Cut Odds: FedWatch now shows increased probability of a 25-bp cut at the next meeting. ECB Hold: ECB kept policy unchanged and stressed data-dependence, which markets interpret as neutral rather than dovish. Higher-time-frame structure shows the next clean liquidity pocket near 1.1790–1.1800. Next Target: 1.17902 if daily orderflow sees bullish momentum, we have euro news ahead also!
Long
by CORE5DAN
AppLovin: Undervalued AI Ad Tech Powerhouse or Volatility Trap? AppLovin: Undervalued AI Ad Tech Powerhouse or Volatility Trap? $615 Target Incoming? AppLovin (APP) shares are trading at $567.12 today, up 1.60% amid a fresh 52-week high and S&P 500 inclusion set for September 22, fueling a 75% YTD rally driven by its AI-powered marketing platform. With Q2 2025 earnings crushing expectations—revenue surging 44% YoY to $1.44B and EPS at $0.89—analysts are bullish, hiking targets to $615 amid 53% projected EPS growth over 3-5 years. But at a trailing P/E of 78x, is APP the undervalued gem poised to go viral in the $500B mobile ad market, or will high beta (3.85) and market jitters trigger a pullback? Let's unpack the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 11, 2025. Fundamental Analysis AppLovin's dominance in mobile app advertising and gaming, bolstered by its AXON AI engine, has propelled explosive growth, with free cash flow hitting $1.2B TTM and margins expanding to 35%. Analysts forecast 2025 EPS of $13.49 on $5.74B revenue, up 40% YoY, as AI optimizations drive advertiser ROI in a post-cookie world. Recent S&P 500 addition could attract $10B+ in passive inflows, underscoring its undervalued status at 1.8% below fair value per DCF models. However, premium valuations reflect growth bets, with risks from ad spending slowdowns if the economy softens. - **Positive:** - AI platform fueling 53% EPS growth forecast; Q2 beat with 44% revenue jump and net income flipping to $236M from prior losses. - S&P 500 entry sparks institutional demand; market cap at $191.8B undervalues its 700%+ stock surge since 2023 lows. - Broader trends in digital ads and gaming (e.g., partnerships with Unity) position APP for 20%+ annual gains amid AI boom. - **Negative:** - High beta (3.85) amplifies volatility; recent 24% monthly gain risks overextension if Fed delays cuts. - Competition from Meta and Google could pressure market share if ad budgets shift. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Leading AI-driven ad tech with 2B+ daily users; strong cash generation ($1.2B FCF) enables buybacks and acquisitions; proven turnaround from gaming to profitable software focus. **Weaknesses:** Elevated P/E (78x TTM) signals growth dependency; high volatility with beta 3.85 exposes to market swings; reliance on mobile ecosystem vulnerable to app store policy changes. **Opportunities:** S&P 500 inclusion for passive inflows; expansion into e-commerce and CTV ads via AI; undervalued growth at 42x forward P/E amid 53% EPS CAGR. **Threats:** Economic downturn crimping ad spend; intensifying competition from Big Tech; regulatory scrutiny on data privacy impacting AI models. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, APP is in a strong uptrend, breaking to new 52-week highs at $576 after consolidating above $500 support, with volume spiking on S&P news. The weekly shows a multi-year bull flag breakout from 2023 lows, now extending with higher highs. Current price: $567.12, with VWAP near $560 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 68, bullish but approaching overbought—room for extension if momentum holds. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, confirming upside acceleration; watch for divergence on overbought signals. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price well above 21-day EMA ($520) and 50-day SMA ($480), with golden cross intact; 200-day EMA at $350 trails far below. Support/Resistance: Key support at $500 (recent breakout level and 50-day SMA), resistance at $576 (all-time high) and $615 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Bull flag extension targets $650; strong buy rating for 1-week horizon. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume surge and S&P catalyst. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overbought RSI could prompt 10% pullback on profit-taking. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $576 on S&P inflows or soft CPI data targets $615 short-term, then $650 by year-end. Buy pullbacks to $500 for high-conviction entries. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $500 eyes $450 (200-day EMA); broader tech selloff could retrace 15-20% if growth slows. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $500–$576 if data mixed, ideal for options plays or waiting for Q3 earnings. Risk Tips: Set stops 3% below support ($485) to manage volatility. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify with META or GOOGL to hedge ad sector correlations—avoid overexposure in high-beta names. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if APP sustains above $500, highlighting its undervalued growth with 50%+ upside amid AI ad dominance and S&P buzz—perfect for viral momentum in retail circles. But monitor Fed decisions and Q3 guidance for confirmation; this fits September's small-cap rotation into high-growth tech. What’s your take? Loading up on APP's rally or waiting for a dip? Share in the comments!
NASDAQ:APP
by DCAChampion
Gold trend analysis continues to rise after consolidationGold trend: Today, gold focuses on the impact of CPI data, which may impact the temporary technical view. Today, the Asian and European sessions maintain a low-long bullish trend, with support at 3620-3610 and short-term focus on 3645-3655. The US data has little impact, so it depends on the range. If the data has a large impact, focus on 3600 below and 3680-3690 above. Gold has risen unilaterally in two transactions and fluctuated for one trading day this week. The current high of gold is 3675, and the decline is only around 3620. Therefore, it is obvious that gold is rising slowly under the bullish trend, and even if it fluctuates, it will not fall much. Then, to determine the direction, we must look at the upward space under the direction. We still don’t guess the top, but under the influence of data, we still have to discuss whether there will be a change in direction or a shift in strength in the near future. From a technical point of view, the daily line is still above the support of the 5-day moving average. If the 5-day moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of weakening. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have closed, the middle track has not broken, and it is difficult to have a major adjustment. Therefore, the current market is still in a strong position. It is not clear whether gold has peaked or has a larger adjustment space. Therefore, if you want to trade, you still have to go long on the decline. So, today's market can be viewed in two steps. The European session is expected to fluctuate upward. Operate at key points and go long in the 3620-3610 support area below. Look at the 3645-3655 area above. If the US data has a greater impact, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3600 key point below. It is still a good time to go long if it does not break.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Bitcoin Price Eyes Breakout as ETF Inflows Mirror ATH TrendBitcoin’s price is trading at $114,192 at the time of writing, facing resistance at $115,000. Sustained buying interest at this level will be crucial to trigger the next stage of upward movement. If ETF inflows remain strong, BTC could flip $115,000 into support and rally toward $117,261 before targeting $120,000. This level would represent a critical milestone in Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle. However, if the breakout attempt fails, Bitcoin may consolidate between $112,500 and $110,000. Such a pullback would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis but still keep BTC within its broader uptrend channel.
by BeInCrypto
ADA – Cardano Swing Long IdeaADA – Cardano Swing Long Idea 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains strongly bullish as the FED is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut, with speculation building for a possible 0.5% cut in September. Monetary policy shifts are being driven by both inflation trends and weakening labor market data. The latest August and September job reports were soft, signaling that the economy is cooling rapidly. This environment continues to fuel expectations for a major bullish run in the weeks ahead. 📈 Technical Analysis Price found support on September 1st at the bullish HTF trendline and has been moving upward since. Price is currently at the HTF Key Resistance level, showing accumulation rather than sharp rejection, with deviations pushing upward. This indicates strength and a bias toward higher prices. 📌 Game Plan 1)Watch for a daily close above the bearish trendline. 2)Look for the HTF Key Resistance to be broken and confirmed with a daily close above. 🎯 Setup Trigger Entry after the retest of the HTF Key Resistance level ($0.885). 📋 Trade Management Stoploss: Daily close below HTF Key Level ($0.85 area) Targets: TP1: $0.96 TP2: $1.02 💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
2
AVAX Price Hits 7-Month High, Seeks $1 Billion for Crypto FirmsAt the time of writing, AVAX is trading at $29.00 after rising 11.3% in a single day. The surge pushed the token to a 7-month high, though it is currently facing resistance at $30.00. If investor enthusiasm holds, Avalanche could flip the $30.00 resistance into support, enabling a move toward $31.15 or higher. Sustained inflows and stronger correlation with Bitcoin would reinforce this bullish trajectory. However, risks remain. If investors begin booking profits at current levels, AVAX could lose momentum. A dip to the $27.00 support or even further to $25.86 would erase much of the recent rally and invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term.
by BeInCrypto
XAUUSD Analysis – September 11, 2025On the H1 timeframe, Gold is showing signs of weakness after failing to hold the key resistance zone. Price is currently trading around 3,622 USD, with short-term selling pressure becoming more visible. Key Technical Levels: Resistance: 3,634 – 3,657 USD → Strong supply zone where sellers are actively pushing price down. Support: 3,616 – 3,570 USD → A breakdown below this area could trigger a deeper pullback toward 3,552 USD. EMA Signals: Price has slipped below short-term EMAs and is now testing the mid-term EMA, signaling corrective momentum. The EMA200 (purple line) sits around 3,570 USD, overlapping with strong support → this level will be decisive for the next trend direction. Trading Strategy: Bearish Scenario (preferred): Consider short positions if price retests 3,630 – 3,634 USD. Targets: 3,616 → 3,570 USD. Stop-loss above 3,657 USD. Bullish Scenario (countertrend): Only consider long entries near 3,570 – 3,552 USD if clear reversal signals appear. Recovery targets: 3,616 → 3,634 USD. Conclusion: Gold faces short-term downside pressure and may test the 3,616 – 3,570 USD support zone. The reaction around EMA200 will determine whether this is just a technical correction or the start of a deeper bearish phase.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets? Systematic risk affects all traders, no matter the strategy or asset class. It comes from market-wide forces—like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical shifts—that influence entire sectors at once. Unlike unsystematic risk, it can’t be avoided through diversification. This article breaks down what systematic risk is, how it’s measured, and how traders may incorporate it into their analysis. What Is Systematic Risk? Systematic risk refers to the kind of risk that affects entire markets or economies, rather than just individual assets. It’s the result of large-scale forces—like inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical conflict, or economic slowdowns—that ripple through multiple asset classes at once. A sharp rise in interest rates, for example, tends to push bond prices lower and can drag down equity valuations as borrowing costs climb and consumer spending slows. Similarly, during a global event like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 shock in 2020, almost all sectors saw simultaneous drawdowns. These events weren’t tied to poor management or bad earnings reports—they were macro-level shifts that hit everything. Because it’s a largely undiversifiable risk, systematic risk is a key consideration for traders assessing overall market exposure. It often drives correlation between assets, particularly in times of stress. This is why equities, commodities, and even currencies can start to move in the same direction during periods of heightened volatility. So, can systematic risk be diversified against? Only relatively speaking. Traders and investors may shift into defensive positions to limit potential drawdowns (e.g. gold, bonds, healthcare stocks vs tech companies). However, no matter how diversified a portfolio is, it remains exposed to this kind of risk because it’s tied to broader market movements rather than asset-specific events. Note: systematic risk differs from systemic risk. The systemic risk definition relates to the potential collapse of the financial system, such as in a banking crisis. It is rare but severe. Systematic vs Unsystematic Risk Systematic risk is broad and market-driven. Unsystematic risk, on the other hand, is specific to a company or sector. It might come from a product failure, a major lawsuit, or a change in management. For example, if a tech company misses earnings due to poor execution, that’s unsystematic. If the entire sector drops because of a global chip shortage or policy change, that’s systematic. Unsystematic risk can be reduced through diversification. Holding assets across industries may help spread exposure to isolated events. But systematic risk can’t be avoided by simply adding more assets. It affects everything to some extent. That’s why traders track both systematic and unsystematic risk—understanding where their risk is concentrated and whether their exposure is tied to broad market movements or individual events. Clear separation of the two may help traders analyse potential drawdowns more accurately. Key Drivers of Systematic Risk Systematic risks tend to stem from structural or macroeconomic forces, and while they can’t be avoided, traders can track them to better understand the environment they’re operating in. Below are some of the most common types of systematic risk and how they influence market-wide movement. Monetary Policy Central banks play a huge role in shaping market conditions. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, which tends to slow down spending and investment. That usually puts downward pressure on risk assets like equities. Conversely, rate cuts or quantitative easing often lead to a surge in asset prices as liquidity improves. Traders closely monitor central bank statements and economic projections, especially from institutions like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Inflation and Deflation Inflation affects everything from consumer behaviour to corporate earnings. Higher inflation can reduce real returns and push central banks to tighten policy. Deflation, though less common, signals weak demand and falling prices, which also tends to hurt equities. Commodities, currencies, and bonds often react sharply to inflation data. Economic Cycles Booms and busts are among the most well-known examples of systematic risk, influencing everything from job creation to earnings growth. During expansions, risk appetite tends to rise. In downturns, investors often shift towards defensive assets or cash. GDP figures, manufacturing data, and consumer spending are key indicators traders watch. Geopolitical Risk Elections, wars, trade tensions, and sanctions can drive sharp market reactions. These events introduce uncertainty, increase volatility, and can disrupt global supply chains or investor sentiment. Market Sentiment and Liquidity Panic selling or sudden shifts in positioning can cause assets to move together, even if fundamentals don’t support it. During liquidity crunches, correlations spike and markets can move sharply on little news. This is often driven by leveraged positioning unwinding or large institutions adjusting risk. Measuring Systematic Risk Systematic risk can’t be removed, but it can be measured, and that may help traders understand how exposed they are to broader market swings. One of the most widely used tools is beta. Beta shows how much an asset moves relative to a benchmark index. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset typically moves in the same direction and by a similar percentage as the overall market. Above 1 means it’s more volatile than the market; below 1 means it’s less volatile. For example, a high-growth stock with a beta of 1.5 would typically move 15% when the market moves 10%. Another approach is Value at Risk (VaR), which estimates the potential loss on a portfolio under normal market conditions over a specific timeframe. It doesn’t isolate systematic risk but gives a sense of how exposed the overall portfolio is. Traders also watch the VIX—often called the “fear index”—which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500. When it spikes, it usually signals rising market-wide risk. More complex models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) use beta and expected market returns to price risk, but some traders use these tools to get a clearer picture of how exposed they may be to movements they can’t control. How Traders May Use Systematic Risk in Analysis Systematic risk isn’t just a background concern—it plays a direct role in how traders assess the market, structure portfolios, and manage exposure. By understanding how market-wide forces are likely to affect asset prices, traders can adjust their approach to reflect broader conditions rather than just focusing on technical analysis or individual names. Position Sizing and Exposure When systematic risk is elevated—during tightening cycles, political unrest, or global economic slowdowns—traders may scale back position sizes or reduce leverage. The aim is to avoid being caught in a correlated sell-off where multiple positions move against them at once. It's common to see increased cash holdings or a shift towards lower beta assets in these periods. Asset Allocation Adjustments Systematic risk also shapes how capital is distributed across asset classes. For example, during periods of strong economic growth, traders may lean into equities, particularly cyclical sectors. In contrast, during uncertain or contractionary periods, there may be a move towards defensive sectors, fixed income, or commodities like gold. Some rotate between assets based on macro trends to stay aligned with the dominant forces driving markets. Macro Analysis and Scenario Planning Understanding systematic risks may help traders prepare for potential market reactions. A trader can analyse upcoming interest rate decisions, inflation prints, or geopolitical tensions and assess which assets are likely to be most sensitive. If recession risk increases, they may expect higher equity volatility and reassess exposure accordingly. Correlation Tracking As systematic risk rises, correlations between assets often increase. Traders who normally count on diversification may find their positions moving together. Keeping track of these shifts may help reduce false confidence in portfolio structure and encourage more dynamic risk controls. Systematic Risk: Considerations As mentioned above, systematic risk is mostly unpredictable and fully unavoidable. There are some other things you should consider when trying to analyse it. Here are a few points traders often keep in mind: - Lagging indicators: Metrics like GDP or inflation are backwards-looking. Markets often react before the data confirms the trend. - False signals: Beta, VaR, and the VIX can be useful, but they’re not foolproof. A low VIX doesn’t guarantee calm markets, and beta doesn’t account for real market conditions. - Uncertainty around timing: Even if the presence of risk is clear, the timing and severity of its impact are hard to analyse with precision. - Overreaction risk: Markets can price in fear quickly, and traders may misjudge whether a reaction is justified or temporary. - Diversification assumptions: Assets that usually behave differently may move in sync during stress. Risk models can underestimate this. The Bottom Line Systematic risk is unavoidable, but understanding how it moves through markets may support traders in making decisions. By tracking macro drivers and adjusting positions accordingly, traders may respond with more clarity during volatile periods. However, it is important to take into account all the difficulties that systematic risk brings. FAQ What Is Systematic Risk? Systematic risk refers to the type of risk that affects an entire market or economy. It’s driven by macroeconomic forces such as interest rates, inflation, economic health, and geopolitical events. Because it impacts broad segments of the market, systematic risk cannot be eliminated through diversification. What Is Systematic Risk vs Unsystematic Risk? Systematic risk is market-wide and linked to broader economic conditions. Unsystematic risk is asset-specific and tied to events like company earnings, leadership changes, or industry developments. According to theory, unsystematic risk can be reduced by holding a diversified portfolio, while systematic risk remains even with strong diversification. What Are the Five Systematic Risks? The main categories include interest rate risk, inflation risk, economic cycle risk, geopolitical risk, and currency or exchange rate risk. Each can affect multiple asset classes and contribute to broad market shifts. Can You Diversify Systematic Risk? No. While diversification may help reduce unsystematic risk, systematic risk affects most assets. It might be managed, not avoided. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
BTC: 114.2k–116k Decision Zone into CPI__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating just below 114k after reclaiming 112k–112.5k, sitting in a 113.5k–114.5k decision zone. Intraday drives higher, while HTF remains cautious into CPI. Momentum: Tactical bullish 📈 — higher highs/lows on 4H→1H, but capped below 114.2k–116k. Key levels: • Resistances (4H/1H): 114.2k–114.6k | (6H/12H): 115.5k–116.0k | (12H): 117.0k • Supports (2H): 113.0k–113.2k | (W/4H): 111.9k–112.3k | (4H): 110.8k Volumes: Normal on 1D/12H, Moderate on 4H/2H, Very high on 1H/30m/15m during impulses. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H MTFTI Up but broader caution; 4H/2H/1H in NEUTRE ACHAT with rising volumes; short‑term divergence as 12H is still hesitant. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a mild risk‑off backdrop that contradicts intraday momentum; watch for a flip to NEUTRE ACHAT to validate continuation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Approach: favor continuation buys on breakout with quick invalidations while HTF remains mixed. Global bias: Tactical NEUTRE ACHAT above 113.6k; swing invalidation if 111.9k then 110.8k break. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: 2H/4H close > 114.6k → aim 115.6k then 117k; stop 113.6k. • Pullback buy: 112.2k–112.3k with absorption/volume → 114.6k / 115.8k / 117k; stop 111.5k. • Tactical sell: failure below 114.3k + close < 113.0k → 111.9k then 110.8k; stop 113.6k. Risk zones / invalidations: Repeated rejection below 114.3k followed by a 113.6k loss opens 112k; losing 111.9k then 110.8k invalidates the tactical bullish bias. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • US CPI Thursday: benign print supports a 114.6k break; hot CPI favors a fade under 114.3k. • US labor softening: bolsters rate‑cut odds (tailwind if CPI undershoots). • Pro‑crypto policy tone (SEC/HK): marginally improves regime if levels confirm. Action plan: • Entry: 114.65k (2H/4H close) / Stop: 113.60k / TP1: 115.60k, TP2: 117.00k, TP3: 118.50k • Approx R/R: ~1.5R to TP1, ~3R to TP2; scale size if volumes stay Very high and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator flips ≥ NEUTRE ACHAT. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday risk‑on, HTF cautious: continuation is possible but needs regime confirmation. 1D/12H: MTFTI Up, yet backdrop “NEUTRE VENTE”; bounded between 111.9k–110.8k base and 114.2k–116k cap; daily HH above 113.5k needs confirmation. 6H: Ascending sequence from 110.8k; resistances 114.2k–114.6k then 115.5k–116k; pullback 112.2k–112.3k is attractive if volume confirms. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: NEUTRE ACHAT with rising volumes; breakout > 114.6k is primary setup; key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator still NEUTRE VENTE outside 15m → wait for confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is the referee: CPI and weak labor frame risk, while on‑chain/crypto flows are constructive but demand confirmation. Macro events: CPI in focus (moderate consensus); very weak US labor supports rate‑cut narrative; selective global risk‑on (Japan ATH, China recovery); pro‑crypto policy signals (SEC/HK) add a marginal tailwind. Bitcoin analysis: Daily trend reclaimed >113.5k; immediate resistance 114.2k; acceptance >117k would open 124.3k extension; strong alt rotation can cap BTC’s relative upside; short clusters imply squeeze risk if breakout validates. On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD); STH ~60% in profit = fragile neutral state; neutral funding (compression risk); slower spot ETF inflows — need a firm close >114.2k–116k to convert. Expected impact: “Cool” CPI + pro‑crypto tone backs a breakout >114.6k; “hot” CPI favors a move back to 112k/110.8k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market at an inflection into CPI: intraday bullish, HTF cautious. - Trend: tactically bullish, but needs confirmation above 114.6k (then 117k). - Top setup: validated 2H/4H breakout > 114.6k with volume → 115.6k/117k; alternative pullback buy at 112.2k. - Key macro: CPI and weak labor steer near‑term risk‑on/off. Stay disciplined: wait for the signal or de‑risk pre‑event — invalidations are close, use them. 🚦
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali