ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Nov 25th)Market Outlook: Analyzing Technical Trends and Economic Indicators
The recent rebound from the 6520–6450 support zone has generated a constructive short-term outlook. However, the market now approaches a significant supply area in the 6800 range. While the immediate trend appears to favor modest gains, contingent upon maintaining support between 6660 and 6645, a pivotal decision zone resides between 6765 and 6815. A strong acceptance above this band could trigger an upward movement towards 6855–6930, while failure to hold could lead to a corrective phase targeting 6690, 6625, and potentially 6550.
Upcoming Economic Data: November 25
The week ahead is marked by a wealth of economic data expected to impact trading activity, particularly in the U.S. housing market and consumer sentiment. Key reports scheduled for Tuesday morning include the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November, Pending Home Sales for October, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. These releases, set for the 9:00–10:00 ET window, could introduce volatility into the markets.
Recent trends in consumer confidence have suggested a dampened sentiment due to the prolonged government shutdown and slow job growth. A disappointing report could perpetuate discussions of recession and further Fed interest rate cuts, while an unexpected improvement would likely support the current risk-on sentiment.
On the corporate front, pre-market earnings from major players like Analog Devices, Alibaba, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker, and NIO could further influence market dynamics in the early hours, especially if there are surprises in their guidance.
Technical Analysis: Higher-Timeframe Perspective
From a higher-timeframe standpoint, the daily chart reflects a completed down-swing exiting the prior weak high around 6930, retracting to the extension zone between 6525 and 6455 where buyers have demonstrated strong interest. This low now appears as a "strong low" in technical analysis terms, aligning with higher timeframe discount levels and previous demand signals. Oscillators indicate a shift from oversold conditions, currently suggesting a corrective rally rather than an immediate resumption of a downward trend.
However, trading remains constrained within a 4-hour supply band between approximately 6765 and 6815. This range is characterized by the last notable lower high and previous sell-side momentum that precipitated the significant drop to 6520. Unless price breaches the 6815 threshold, the overall swing structure continues to reflect a "lower-high" scenario, which necessitates caution for any bullish positions as they occur within a broader corrective framework.
Intraday Trading Dynamics: Expectations for the Day
Analyzing the intraday structure on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts reveals that Monday’s trading culminated in a robust upward trend from the London low of 6625 to the New York AM low of 6646, concluding with a consolidation phase just beneath the Asia session high at 6724. The cluster of highs around 6715–6725 precisely correlates with an intraday equilibrium line situated just below the upper edge of the 4-hour supply band.
Volume data indicates strong buying activity emerging from the base established at 6520–6625, tapering off as prices approached the 6715–6725 range. Further insights from the 1-hour oscillator hint at a cooling in momentum, suggesting that initial price reactions may favor mean reversion rather than an unimpeded breakout.
Looking ahead into the New York trading hours:
- Asia Session: Anticipate a trading range likely between 6700 and 6730, with potential stop raids above 6725 and minor retracements towards 6685.
- London Session: If buyers can sustain the 6685–6660 level during potential pullbacks, this could establish a foundation for another attempt at reaching the 6765–6815 supply zone during the New York data release.
- New York Open: Provided that the 6660–6645 area holds during 15-minute closes, the baseline scenario suggests a rotation into the 6765–6815 decision band between late London and early New York. A significant rejection in this zone, characterized by long upper wicks and unsuccessful 15-minute closes above 6815, would favor a pullback towards 6690–6710 by day’s end. Conversely, clear acceptance above 6815 on robust volume would pave the way for targets at 6855 and potentially back to 6930.
Key zones
Resistance zones:
R1: 6724–6735 – Asia session high and intraday shelf, currently capping price.
R2: 6765–6815 – 4h supply block and 1.272 extension on the recent down-swing; prior 4h lower-high origin; this is the primary A++ short zone.
R3: 6855–6930 – Overhead daily supply with the prior weak high; if reached, expect heavy responsive selling on first touch.
Support zones:
S1: 6685–6660 – Intraday demand from the late-day push; includes London high at 6669.5 and prior structure; key pivot for the bullish case.
S2: 6645–6625 – NY AM low and London session low; first real downside objective if S1 fails.
S3: 6550–6525 – “Strong low” zone around the 1.272 extension; if this breaks on a closing basis the entire rebound thesis is likely wrong and the door opens toward the 1.618 around 6455 and even 6375.
A++ Setup 1 – Short fade from 6765–6815 (Tier-1 rejection play)
Entry zone: 6780–6805, leaning as close to 6800 as price action allows after the spike and stall.
Invalidation / hard stop: 6827, above the 4h supply high and the 1.272 line; if price can close above there, the rejection idea is wrong.
Targets and management:
TP1: 6710–6690 (retest of intraday equilibrium and prior 30m shelf). That gives roughly 2R from a 6785–6800 entry with a 20–25 point stop.
TP2: 6645–6625 (London and NY AM lows cluster). This is where you want the bulk of the remaining size off if sellers stay in control.
TP3: 6550–6525 (strong low zone) only if macro tape turns risk-off; treat this as a runner target, not baseline.
A++ Setup 2 – Long continuation from 6660–6680 (Tier-1 acceptance play)
Entry zone: 6670–6680 after the sweep and reclaim; avoid catching the first knife if momentum is still heavy.
Invalidation / hard stop: 6643, below the combined London low band; a 15m close below 6645 means the demand shelf failed.
Initial risk: roughly 30–37 points depending on fill.
Targets and management:
TP1: 6724–6735 (Asia high / intraday range top). From a 6675 entry with a 30-point stop this is just over 1.5R; to keep the setup A++, bias toward entries closer to 6670 or take partials slightly higher, around 6740, where 2R is reached.
TP2: 6765–6815 (4h supply band). This is where you expect strong counter-flow; plan to remove most of the remaining size here.
TP3: 6855–6930 only if price slices through 6815 on strong volume and macro data support risk-on; in that case trail under 1h higher lows rather than using static targets.
