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Dollar is strengthening against euro Hello! This is your finance professional speaking. Today we will look at one of the most important currency pairs in the global economy - EUR/USD. Let’s start with fundamental analysis. The EUR/USD pair reflects the ratio of the euro to the US dollar and reacts sensitively to central bank decisions, macroeconomic statistics, and overall risk appetite in global markets. Two institutions play a key role here - the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Now let’s break down the key indicators and see how they influence the EUR/USD exchange rate. 1. Interest rates of the ECB and the Fed This is the main driver of the pair’s movement. When rates in the U.S. are higher, the dollar becomes more attractive to investors and EUR/USD usually declines. If ECB policy is tighter or rates in the eurozone are relatively higher, the euro receives support. 2. Inflation Rising inflation forces central banks to tighten monetary policy. High inflation in the U.S. increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes and supports the dollar. Rising inflation in the eurozone strengthens expectations of tightening from the ECB and supports the euro. 3. Labor market Strong U.S. employment data (NFP, unemployment) strengthens the dollar and raises expectations of higher interest rates. A weakening labor market, on the other hand, puts pressure on the dollar. The same logic applies to the eurozone. 4. Economic growth (GDP) Higher growth makes a country’s assets more attractive. Strong U.S. economic growth supports the dollar; strong eurozone growth supports the euro. 5. Market risk sentiment In periods of uncertainty, investors move into safe-haven assets. The dollar traditionally plays the role of a "safe haven", so when global risks increase, the EUR/USD pair often declines. Now let's move on to technical analysis. 1)EUR/USD has formed 5 Elliott waves up, indicating a potential trend completion. 2)At the end of the trend, a Wyckoff distribution structure has formed, signaling selling activity. 3)The reverse USDEUR chart shows that the dollar is being bought. DXY is also an important indicator. In the attached screenshot, you can see that the dollar index is currently strengthening, and if it continues to rise, all dollar-denominated assets may undergo a correction. Overall, that’s the situation! Write in the comments what you think
Short
by Finance_Lozha
EURJPY smart money is here!Hi! A financier is at the screens - today I’ll show you the trade I entered. In front of us is the EURJPY chart. First, it’s worth noting that the inverse chart JPYEUR looks very weak. This tells us that the euro is indeed stronger now, and we may see growth. Second, in mid-December we had a similar structure. I’ve highlighted these structures with a blue rectangle. Inside these rectangles, an accumulation schematic based on Wyckoff formed. This suggests that we have potential for a reversal and solid upside. It’s also worth noting that the structures are similar to each other and exhibit fractality. So overall, I opened a long position, aiming to trade it up to the high where we have a liquidity shelf.
Long
by Finance_Lozha
USDJPY Wait For The Beak!The Bank of Japan just hiked interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75%, the highest level in ~30 years. FED lowering while BOJ raising rates is bad juju for the carry trade. Why carry risk is rising BOJ hikes = funding cost up. Yen is no longer “free money.” Fed cuts = yield advantage shrinking. The whole carry equation weakens. Compression kills carry. You don’t need parity — you just need the gap to narrow. What actually breaks carry trades Not the BOJ hike Not the Fed cut The moment markets believe the trend is durable Carry trades die on expectations, not announcements. Keep an eye out for the breakout. If carry breaks, bad juju for Crypto & AI trade,
Long
by RealMacro
16
XAUUSD (Gold) – Bullish Exhaustion → Short OpportunityGold is currently trading near a strong resistance zone after a sharp impulsive move, showing signs of bullish exhaustion. Price is respecting the rising trendline, but rejection from the upper zone suggests a potential pullback / correction. 🔹 Key Observations: Strong bullish push followed by consolidation Price reacting near a premium resistance area Possible lower high formation Trendline break or rejection could trigger downside momentum 🎯 Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above resistance, we may see a corrective move toward the demand zone highlighted on the chart. 📌 Targets: First support near 4536 area, followed by deeper continuation if momentum increases. 🛑 Invalidation: A strong close and hold above the resistance zone will invalidate the short setup. ⚠️ Risk Management: Always wait for confirmation and manage risk properly. This is not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Adrian_Trades_
8
AUDCAD going long!Hello! This is your finance professional, and here is a new high-quality analysis. Today we will review the AUDCAD currency pair. On the chart, we can see that after a strong impulse the price went into a correction. The decline did not follow a usual structure but formed a wedge pattern. A wedge pattern is a reversal structure. That is exactly what happened — the price reversed and we saw the continuation of the uptrend. Right now, I have taken a long position according to my trend-following strategy and set the target at the asset’s high.
Long
by Finance_Lozha
BTCUSD 1H – Trendline Resistance + Supply Zone RejectionBitcoin is trading under a strong descending trendline, showing clear bearish pressure on the 1H timeframe. Price has revisited a key supply/resistance zone (green area) and failed to break above it, indicating seller dominance. The recent pullback looks corrective, and price is expected to reject from the supply zone and continue the downside move. A bearish continuation is likely as long as BTC remains below the trendline resistance. Target: ➡️ Previous demand/support zone around 89,700 – 89,800 Invalidation: ❌ Sustained candle close above the supply zone & trendline Risk Management: Use proper position sizing and wait for confirmation before entry. ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Trade with discipline.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Adrian_Trades_
1
The trend is your friendHello everyone. I’m a financier and this is educational post that might help you get closer to consistent profitability (if you actually get the point). Today I want to talk about trend trading. Yes - that very “best friend of a trader” that every book and every course keeps repeating. And after years in the market I can say: it’s not just a cliché - it really works. I’ve been through plenty of strategies: classic TA, Elliott Waves, Smart Money Concepts, Williams’ trading chaos - you name it. I’ve traded with the trend, against it, and inside ranges. Honestly, the results were average. My monthly win rate was about 30–40%. Not terrible, but I wanted fewer mistakes and more stability. Eventually I set one hard rule for myself: 👉 I only trade in the direction of the trend. And statistically, that mostly means trading the uptrend. Here’s the logic. Any asset can drop around 99.99% - the downside is capped. But to the upside there is no limit. An asset can grow 2x, 5x, 10x and more. So statistically, longs are more favorable. I still take shorts when the market structure is bearish, but lately most assets are trending up. So what’s the real advantage of trading with the trend? The market has its own momentum. It’s simply easier to move with that flow than to fight it. I stopped trying to outsmart the market or predict every reversal. I don’t obsess over overbought/oversold signals. I just wait for my setup - the same repeatable scenario - and I trade it in the direction of the trend. I’m a boring trader - and that’s exactly why I’m a profitable trader. On social platforms my job is to share analysis and possible scenarios. But trading itself is different: the goal is not to predict, the goal is to execute. If the setup plays out - great. If not -no problem, I wait for the next one. I’m no longer a hostage to my own forecasts, which only kill objectivity. Trend filters out a huge number of bad trades. It instantly removes about half of all random entries. After I really internalized that, my win rate improved, my psychology inside trades got much cleaner, less FOMO, less second-guessing. I stopped guessing - and started systematically executing. So my takeaway for today: 👉 Trend really is your friend. Try focusing only on trend trading and then tell me in the comments how it changed your results and mindset.
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by Finance_Lozha
FX 2025 RecapThe price action in FX futures throughout 2025 was defined by a historic retreat of the U.S. dollar, which saw its "grip slip" as the U.S. Dollar Index fell by approximately 9% over the year. The primary driver was a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve policy; after holding rates steady for much of the year, the Fed Pivot in September, triggered by a softening labor market and the "One Big Beautiful Bill," resulted in a series of rate cuts that brought the fed funds rate down to 4.25% by December. This dollar weakness provided a massive tailwind for major G10 futures, with the Swedish Krona emerging as the top performer with a 20% gain, while the Euro and Swiss Franc both surged roughly 14% against the greenback in the first half of the year alone. Volatility reached "monstrous" levels in the second quarter due to the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced on April 2. This event triggered a massive risk-off stampede, causing the Cboe Volatility Index to witness its largest-ever one-day spike and sending daily global FX turnover to a record $9.6 trillion. While the dollar initially spiked on safe-haven demand, the subsequent "Trump trade" exhaustion and concerns over fiscal sustainability during the longest U.S. government shutdown in history cemented the bearish trend. In contrast, the Japanese Yen futures experienced significant whipsaws as the Bank of Japan diverged from its peers by raising rates to 0.5%, creating a complex environment where traders had to balance narrowing interest rate differentials against the threat of 24% tariffs on Japanese auto exports. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:6E1!
by CME_Group
GBPUSD BUY SETUP | Bullish Continuation | High-Probability TradeGBPUSD on the 1H timeframe shows strong bullish momentum after a clean breakout above the key resistance zone. Price is now forming a bullish flag / falling channel, indicating a healthy pullback before the next impulsive move. 📈 Trade Idea Bias: Buy (Bullish Continuation) Entry: Break & hold above the flag resistance Target: 1.3600 – 1.3610 🎯 Invalidation: Below 1.3468 🔍 Why this works Strong impulsive move = smart money participation Flag structure = continuation pattern Previous resistance flipped into support Clear risk-to-reward setup (RR 💪) ⚠️ Risk Management Always wait for confirmation and manage risk properly. No FOMO trades.
by Adrian_Trades_
2
GBPUSD - Ascending Channel at $1.35 Executive Summary FX:GBPUSD is trading at $1.3498 on December 28, 2025, consolidating near 3-month highs within a well-defined ascending channel on the 2H timeframe. The British Pound is having its best year since 2017 (+8% YTD) while the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 2003 (-9.9% YTD). Price is testing critical resistance at $1.3520-1.3560 after breaking above $1.35 for the first time in three months. The Bank of England's cautious stance on rate cuts versus the Fed's expected easing creates a favorable backdrop for sterling, but thin holiday volumes and overbought conditions warrant caution. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Watching for Breakout at Resistance The trend is clearly bullish with +8% YTD. The ascending channel is intact. However, price is testing critical resistance near multi-month highs. Wait for breakout confirmation or pullback to support before entering. Current Market Context - December 28, 2025 GBP/USD is in a strong uptrend: Current Price: $1.3498 (-0.04% on the day) Day's Range: $1.3477 - $1.3527 52-Week Range: $1.2099 - $1.3789 52-Week High: $1.3789 (approaching) Technical Rating: BUY Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN (except 6M): 1 Week: Positive 1 Month: +2% 3 Months: Positive 6 Months: -1.49% YTD: +7.88% 1 Year: +7.57% Sterling is having its best year against the Dollar since 2017. The pound broke above $1.35 for the first time in three months. THE BULL CASE - Dollar Weakness Driving Sterling Higher 1. Dollar's Worst Year Since 2003 The US Dollar has been under severe pressure: Dollar Index (DXY) on track to lose 9.9% for the year Steepest annual drop since 2003 Whipsawed by tariff chaos and Fed independence concerns "The USD risk premium widened in December" - HSBC "USD weakness may reflect growing concerns around Fed independence" - HSBC 2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fed funds futures pricing in 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 First cut expected as early as March/April Goldman Sachs expects "two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25%" Fed balancing weakening labor market against inflation concerns Lower rates = weaker Dollar = stronger Sterling 3. Bank of England Cautious on Cuts BoE cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% in December Narrow 5-4 vote reflecting ongoing inflation concerns Governor Bailey: rates will trend lower "but not as quickly as markets might hope" UK inflation at 3.2% - still above BoE's 2% target Hawkish BoE vs Dovish Fed = Sterling strength 4. Improving UK Economic Sentiment "Sterling-wise looks to be some improving sentiment towards the outlook" - Neil Wilson, Saxo Markets Revised GDP figures showed substantial upward revision to business investment UK GDP grew 0.1% in Q3, in line with expectations Budget delivered extra fiscal headroom, triggering relief rally Positioning was negative going into Budget - relief rally since 5. Sterling's Best Year Since 2017 GBP/USD up over 8% YTD Best annual performance since 2017 Broke above $1.35 for first time in 3 months Up over 2% in December alone Outperforming most G10 currencies THE BEAR CASE - Short-Term Caution 1. Near Multi-Month Highs Price at 3-month highs Testing critical resistance zone $1.3520-1.3560 Natural resistance after strong rally Profit-taking risk elevated 52-week high at $1.3789 still ~300 pips away 2. Thin Holiday Volumes Year-end trading conditions Many market participants off Thin liquidity can cause erratic moves "Thin turn of year markets provide opportunity" for sharp reversals Reduced participation until January 3. Overbought Conditions +8% YTD rally +2% in December alone Extended from moving averages Mean reversion possible Consolidation healthy after strong move 4. UK Fiscal Concerns Budget watchdog to publish forecasts on March 3 Any negative assessment could pressure sterling Fiscal headroom remains tight BoE forecasts flat growth in Q4 5. Potential Dollar Bounce Dollar oversold after -9.9% YTD decline Risk-off events could boost Dollar safe-haven appeal Fed could turn hawkish if inflation persists Yen intervention could trigger broader FX volatility Expert Analysis MUFG Strategists: "The drop for the dollar this year is unlikely to be a one-off with scope for further gains ahead." HSBC Analysts: "The USD risk premium widened in December which suggests USD weakness may reflect growing concerns around Fed independence, not just the monetary policy outlook." "With many other G10 central banks on hold, we think Fed liquidity operations and a slight dovish Fed bias leaves the USD outlook tilted to the downside." Neil Wilson, Saxo Markets: "Sterling-wise looks to be some improving sentiment towards the outlook for the economy even if it looks a bit miserable in the trenches right now." "Positioning was kind of negative going into the Budget so as that delivered extra fiscal headroom we have seen some relief rally since." Goldman Sachs (David Mericle): "We expect the FOMC to compromise on two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25% but see the risks as tilted lower." Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a textbook bullish structure: Ascending Channel Characteristics: Clear ascending channel established Lower trendline: Rising support (yellow dashed) Upper trendline: Rising resistance (yellow dashed) Higher highs and higher lows throughout Price respecting channel boundaries well Currently trading near upper channel boundary Key Zones Identified (Purple Shaded): Upper resistance zone: $1.3520-$1.3560 Lower support zone: $1.3220-$1.3280 Major resistance lines: Red horizontals at key levels Channel width: ~300 pips Current Position: Price at $1.3498 - testing upper resistance zone Consolidating after push to 3-month highs 52-week high at $1.3789 within reach Technical rating: BUY Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $1.3527 - Day's high / immediate resistance $1.3520 - Resistance zone lower boundary $1.3535 - Recent 3-month high $1.3560 - Resistance zone upper boundary $1.3600 - Psychological resistance $1.3650 - Secondary resistance $1.3700 - Psychological level $1.3789 - 52-WEEK HIGH (major target) Support Levels: $1.3477 - Day's low / immediate support $1.3450 - Secondary support $1.3400 - Psychological support $1.3350 - Tertiary support $1.3320 - Support zone upper boundary $1.3280 - Support zone lower boundary $1.3220 - CHANNEL FLOOR (major support) $1.2099 - 52-Week low Channel Analysis Channel established from October lows Strong upward slope - bullish momentum Price respecting both boundaries Channel width: approximately 300 pips Upper boundary: ~$1.3520-$1.3560 Lower boundary: ~$1.3220-$1.3280 Breakout above channel would accelerate rally Moving Average Analysis Price trading above all major moving averages MAs sloping upward - bullish alignment Short-term MAs above long-term MAs MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks Trend structure bullish on all timeframes SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout to 52-Week High (60% Probability) Trigger Conditions: 2H close above $1.3560 resistance zone Volume confirmation on breakout Dollar Index breaks below 97.50 Fed signals more rate cuts Risk-on sentiment continues Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $1.3600 - Psychological level Target 2: $1.3650 - Secondary resistance Target 3: $1.3700 - Psychological level Target 4: $1.3789 - 52-week high Extended: $1.3850+ (new highs) Bullish Catalysts: +8% YTD momentum Ascending channel intact Fed rate cut expectations (2-3 cuts in 2026) Dollar's worst year since 2003 BoE cautious on cuts vs Fed dovish Sterling at 3-month highs Best year since 2017 BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Channel Support (40% Probability) Trigger Conditions: Rejection at $1.3520-$1.3560 resistance Break below $1.3400 support Dollar bounce on strong US data Risk-off sentiment BoE turns more dovish Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $1.3400 - Psychological support Target 2: $1.3320 - Support zone upper boundary Target 3: $1.3280 - Support zone lower boundary Target 4: $1.3220 - Channel floor Bearish Risks: Near 3-month highs - natural resistance Thin holiday volumes Overbought after +8% YTD Profit-taking risk elevated Potential Dollar bounce UK fiscal concerns (March 3 forecasts) NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation in Range Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between $1.3400-$1.3560 Thin holiday trading Wait for January for directional clarity Healthy consolidation before next leg Channel support provides floor MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Bullish Bias The weight of evidence favors bulls, but caution warranted at resistance: Bullish Factors (Dominant): +8% YTD - Best year since 2017 Ascending channel intact Dollar's worst year since 2003 (-9.9%) Fed rate cuts expected (2-3 in 2026) BoE cautious vs Fed dovish 52-week high within reach Technical rating: BUY Higher highs and higher lows Bearish Factors (Minor): Near 3-month high resistance Thin holiday volumes Overbought short-term Profit-taking risk My Stance: NEUTRAL - Wait for Confirmation The trend is clearly bullish with +8% YTD. The ascending channel is intact. Fed rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Dollar. However, price is testing critical resistance after a strong rally. Wait for breakout confirmation or pullback to support. Strategy: Wait for breakout above $1.3560 OR Buy dips to $1.3280-$1.3320 support zone Target $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3789 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Don't chase at current levels Respect the ascending channel Trade Framework Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $1.3560 Entry Conditions: 2H close above $1.3560 Volume confirmation Dollar Index weakness Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3565-$1.3580 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $1.3480 below recent support Target 1: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.3700 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.4) Target 3: $1.3789 (52-week high, Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support Zone Entry Conditions: Price pulls back to $1.3280-$1.3320 zone Bullish rejection candle Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3280-$1.3320 at support zone Stop Loss: $1.3200 below channel floor Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.3520 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Target 3: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:4) Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy Entry Conditions: Price tests $1.3220 channel floor Strong bounce with volume Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3220-$1.3250 at channel bottom Stop Loss: $1.3180 below channel Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:3) Target 2: $1.3520 (Risk-Reward ~1:5) Target 3: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:8) Scenario 4: Rejection Short (Counter-Trend) Entry Conditions: Clear rejection at $1.3520-$1.3560 Bearish engulfing or pin bar Dollar strength returns Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3520-$1.3540 on rejection Stop Loss: $1.3590 above resistance Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.4) Target 2: $1.3320 (Risk-Reward ~1:4) Note: Counter-trend - smaller position size Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Respect the ascending channel Buy dips, don't chase highs Thin holiday volumes = wider stops Scale out at targets Move stop to breakeven after first target Watch Dollar Index for confirmation Monitor BoE and Fed commentary Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $1.3220 (channel floor) Ascending channel breaks down Dollar Index surges above 100 BoE signals aggressive rate cuts Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $1.3789 (new 52-week high) Channel breaks to upside Dollar Index breaks below 96 Fed signals aggressive rate cuts Conclusion FX:GBPUSD is in a strong bullish trend, trading at $1.3498 within a well-defined ascending channel. Sterling has gained +8% YTD (best since 2017) as the Dollar weakens (-9.9% YTD, worst since 2003). The 52-week high at $1.3789 is within reach. The Numbers: Current Price: $1.3498 YTD Performance: +7.88% 1-Year Performance: +7.57% 52-Week High: $1.3789 52-Week Low: $1.2099 Dollar YTD: -9.9% (worst since 2003) Key Levels: $1.3789 - 52-WEEK HIGH (bullish target) $1.3520-$1.3560 - Upper resistance zone $1.3498 - Current price $1.3400 - Psychological support $1.3280-$1.3320 - Lower support zone $1.3220 - Channel floor The Setup: Ascending channel intact. Fed rate cuts pressuring Dollar. BoE cautious on cuts. Sterling outperforming. All signs point higher, but respect resistance. Strategy: NEUTRAL stance - wait for confirmation Buy breakout above $1.3560 Buy dips to $1.3280-$1.3320 support zone Target $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3789 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Respect the trend The trend is your friend. Don't fight Sterling's momentum, but don't chase at resistance.
by officialjackofalltrades
EURUSD - Ascending Channel at 1.1770 | Dollar Weakness + Fed Executive Summary FX:EURUSD is trading at 1.17705 on December 26, 2025, consolidating near the top of a well-defined ascending channel on the 4H timeframe. The Euro has had an impressive year with +13.67% YTD gains as the US Dollar weakens on Fed rate cut expectations. The pair is approaching the 52-week high of 1.19187, with the ascending channel structure suggesting continued bullish momentum. However, short-term technicals show slight bearish divergence, and thin holiday trading could bring volatility. BIAS: BULLISH - Ascending Channel Intact The trend is clearly bullish with +13.67% YTD. The ascending channel is well-defined and intact. Buy dips to channel support, target the 52-week high. Current Market Context - December 27, 2025 EUR/USD is in a strong uptrend: Current Price: 1.17705 (-0.07% on the day) Day's Range: 1.17615 - 1.17966 52-Week Range: 1.01766 - 1.19187 52-Week High: 1.19187 (approaching) Technical Rating: Slightly bearish short-term Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN: 1 Week: +0.41% 1 Month: +1.52% 3 Months: +0.90% 6 Months: +0.37% YTD: +13.67% 1 Year: +12.96% Every timeframe is positive. The Euro is having its best year against the Dollar in recent memory. THE BULL CASE - Dollar Weakness Driving Euro Higher 1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations The US Dollar has been under pressure as investors price in further Federal Reserve rate cuts: Fed funds futures pricing in 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 First cut expected as early as March/April Fed balancing weakening labor market against inflation concerns Divided Fed has left investors on edge about policy outlook Lower rates = weaker Dollar = stronger Euro 2. Dollar Index Weakness Dollar Index (DXY) at 97.96 Poised for 0.8% weekly drop - weakest since July Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc all pushing to recent highs Dollar has fallen throughout 2025 as Fed cuts rates Other central banks expected to hold rates steady 3. Fed Chair Succession Uncertainty Jerome Powell's term ends in May Trump to nominate replacement Any inkling of Trump's decision could sway markets Uncertainty adding to Dollar weakness 4. US-EU Tensions (Potential Euro Catalyst) US sanctioned former EU officials including Thierry Breton Tensions over digital regulation and Big Tech France's Macron condemned the sanctions Could lead to Euro strength as EU asserts sovereignty Transatlantic tech rift deepening 5. Seasonal Strength 2025 significantly outperforming 2024 and 2023 seasonally Euro typically strong in year-end trading Thin holiday volumes can amplify moves THE BEAR CASE - Short-Term Caution 1. Technical Rating Shows Slight Bearish TradingView technicals gauge pointing toward "Sell" Short-term overbought conditions possible Near 52-week high - natural resistance Consolidation after strong rally 2. Thin Holiday Trading Many markets closed or light volumes Thin liquidity can cause erratic moves Year-end positioning adding volatility Reduced participation until January 3. US Economic Data Still Solid Jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week US businesses see year-ahead employment growth at 4.32% Revenue growth expectations at 3.83% Strong data could limit Dollar weakness 4. Potential Dollar Bounce Dollar oversold after recent decline Mean reversion possible Fed could turn hawkish if inflation persists Risk-off events could boost Dollar safe-haven appeal Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a textbook bullish structure: Ascending Channel Characteristics: Clear ascending channel established Lower trendline: Rising support (cyan dashed) Upper trendline: Rising resistance (cyan dashed) Higher highs and higher lows throughout Price respecting channel boundaries well Currently trading in upper half of channel Key Zones Identified (Purple Shaded): Upper resistance zone: 1.1800-1.1820 Middle support zone: 1.1700-1.1740 Lower support zone: 1.1480-1.1520 Major resistance line: ~1.1820 (red horizontal) Major support line: ~1.1480 (red horizontal) Current Position: Price at 1.1770 - near upper channel Consolidating after recent push higher Testing middle of recent range 52-week high at 1.19187 within reach Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1797 - Day's high / immediate resistance 1.1800-1.1820 - Upper resistance zone (purple) 1.1850 - Secondary resistance 1.1900 - Psychological resistance 1.1919 - 52-WEEK HIGH (major target) 1.2000 - Extended target / psychological Support Levels: 1.1761 - Day's low / immediate support 1.1740 - Secondary support 1.1700-1.1740 - Middle support zone (purple) 1.1650 - Channel midline area 1.1600 - Psychological support 1.1480-1.1520 - Lower support zone (purple) 1.1480 - MAJOR SUPPORT (red line) Channel Analysis Channel established from late November lows Strong upward slope - bullish momentum Price respecting both boundaries Channel width: approximately 300-350 pips Midline providing dynamic support/resistance Breakout above channel would accelerate rally Moving Average Analysis Price trading above all major moving averages MAs sloping upward - bullish alignment Short-term MAs above long-term MAs MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks Trend structure bullish on all timeframes SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout to 52-Week High Trigger Conditions: 4H close above 1.1820 resistance zone Volume confirmation on breakout Dollar Index breaks below 97.50 Fed signals more rate cuts Risk-on sentiment continues Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: 1.1850 - Secondary resistance Target 2: 1.1900 - Psychological level Target 3: 1.1919 - 52-week high Extended: 1.2000+ (new highs) Bullish Catalysts: +13.67% YTD momentum Ascending channel intact Fed rate cut expectations (2-3 cuts in 2026) Dollar weakness continuing Euro outperforming seasonally 52-week high within reach All performance metrics green BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Channel Support Trigger Conditions: Rejection at 1.1800-1.1820 resistance Break below 1.1700 support zone Dollar bounce on strong US data Risk-off sentiment Fed turns hawkish Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: 1.1700-1.1740 - Middle support zone Target 2: 1.1650 - Channel midline Target 3: 1.1600 - Psychological support Extended: 1.1480-1.1520 - Lower support zone Bearish Risks: Technical rating showing slight bearish Near 52-week high - natural resistance Thin holiday volumes Potential Dollar bounce US economic data still solid Overbought short-term NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation in Range Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between 1.1700-1.1820 Thin holiday trading Wait for January for directional clarity Healthy consolidation before next leg higher Channel support provides floor MY ASSESSMENT - BULLISH with Short-Term Caution The weight of evidence favors bulls: Bullish Factors (Dominant): +13.67% YTD - Strong trend Ascending channel intact All performance metrics green Fed rate cuts expected Dollar weakness continuing 52-week high within reach Seasonal strength Higher highs and higher lows Bearish Factors (Minor): Technical rating slightly bearish Near 52-week high resistance Thin holiday volumes Short-term overbought possible My Stance: BULLISH - Buy Dips The trend is clearly bullish with +13.67% YTD. The ascending channel is intact and well-defined. Fed rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Dollar. The 52-week high at 1.1919 is the obvious target. Strategy: Buy dips to 1.1700-1.1740 support zone Target 1.1850, 1.1900, 1.1919 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Don't chase at current levels Respect the ascending channel Trade Framework Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above 1.1820 Entry Conditions: 4H close above 1.1820 Volume confirmation Dollar Index weakness Trade Parameters: Entry: 1.1825-1.1840 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 1.1750 below recent support Target 1: 1.1900 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: 1.1919 (52-week high) Target 3: 1.2000 (Extended) Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support Zone Entry Conditions: Price pulls back to 1.1700-1.1740 zone Bullish rejection candle Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: 1.1700-1.1740 at support zone Stop Loss: 1.1650 below channel midline Target 1: 1.1800 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.2) Target 2: 1.1850-1.1900 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 3: 1.1919 (52-week high) Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy Entry Conditions: Price tests 1.1480-1.1520 major support Strong bounce with volume Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: 1.1500-1.1550 at channel bottom Stop Loss: 1.1430 below major support Target 1: 1.1700 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 2: 1.1800 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5) Target 3: 1.1900+ (Extended) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Respect the ascending channel Buy dips, don't chase highs Thin holiday volumes = wider stops Scale out at targets Move stop to breakeven after first target Watch Dollar Index for confirmation Monitor Fed commentary Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 1.1480 (major support) Ascending channel breaks down Dollar Index surges above 100 Fed signals no more rate cuts Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 1.1919 (new 52-week high) Channel breaks to upside Dollar Index breaks below 96 Fed signals aggressive rate cuts Conclusion FX:EURUSD is in a strong bullish trend, trading at 1.17705 within a well-defined ascending channel. The Euro has gained +13.67% YTD as the Dollar weakens on Fed rate cut expectations. The 52-week high at 1.1919 is within reach. The Numbers: Current Price: 1.17705 YTD Performance: +13.67% 1-Year Performance: +12.96% 52-Week High: 1.19187 52-Week Low: 1.01766 Key Levels: 1.1919 - 52-WEEK HIGH (bullish target) 1.1800-1.1820 - Upper resistance zone 1.1770 - Current price 1.1700-1.1740 - Middle support zone 1.1480-1.1520 - Lower support zone The Setup: Ascending channel intact. Fed rate cuts pressuring Dollar. Euro outperforming seasonally. All performance metrics green. The path of least resistance is higher. Strategy: BULLISH stance - buy dips Buy 1.1700-1.1740 support zone Target 1.1850, 1.1900, 1.1919 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Respect the trend The trend is your friend. Don't fight the Euro's momentum.
Long
by officialjackofalltrades
Gold Is Pressing the Old ATH — The Final Break Looks ImminentMARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H) Market State: – Gold is in a strong bullish continuation structure, forming higher lows along an ascending support while compressing directly beneath the old ATH at 4,380. – This is bullish stair-step price action, not exhaustion buyers are accepting higher prices on every pullback. Key Levels: – Old ATH / Decision Zone: 4,360 – 4,380 – Structure Support: ~4,260 – 4,270 – Trend Support (Ascending): intact – Upside Objective: 4,450 → 4,500 (New ATH) Price Action: – Repeated rejections below ATH are getting shallower, signaling supply absorption. – Each pullback is met with faster buying, confirming strong demand control. – Compression against resistance = breakout pressure, not distribution. MACRO CONFIRMATION – WHY THIS BREAK HAS BACKING 1. Fed Policy Caps the Downside – The Fed remains on hold, with markets pricing future easing rather than further tightening. – Real yields struggle to move higher → historically bullish for gold. 2. USD Lacks Follow-Through – The Dollar fails to trend despite elevated rates a late-cycle signal. – This reduces headwinds for gold near key resistance. 3. Persistent Safe-Haven & Central Bank Demand – Geopolitical risk and fiscal uncertainty remain unresolved. – Central banks continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing structural demand beneath price. 4. Liquidity Inflection Favors Hard Assets – As global liquidity stabilizes, gold tends to lead upside expansions before other assets react. Next Move: – Holding above 4,260 keeps the bullish structure intact. – Acceptance above 4,380 opens clean price discovery toward 4,450–4,500. – Any dip into ascending support is a continuation setup, not a reversal signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
Altcoin Market Cap Building Energy Before Next ExpansionThe total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 continues to follow a familiar cycle of accumulation, breakout, expansion, and consolidation. After strong moves, the market typically ranges for a period before the next leg. Currently, it is consolidating within a wide range, similar to past phases before major expansions. This suggests the market is building energy, not distributing. A breakout above the range could trigger the next expansion phase for altcoins, while patience is needed until that happens. NFA Please hit the like button if you like it, and share your views in the comments section.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by unichartz
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