GBP/AUD: I'm Still Bullish While 83% of Retail Traders Are ShortAfter reviewing the technical structure, sentiment, seasonality and institutional positioning, I continue to maintain a bullish outlook on GBP/AUD over the coming weeks.
From a technical perspective, the market has completely changed character. After establishing a significant low around 1.8550, price broke the long-term descending trendline and started printing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, confirming that buyers are back in control.
The pair is now approaching a key FVG area between 1.9360 and 1.9415, which could temporarily slow the current rally. However, I don't necessarily see this as the end of the move. Instead, I believe this zone could trigger a healthy pullback before another continuation higher.
The area I will be closely monitoring is 1.9000–1.9050. If buyers step back in there, I will look for fresh bullish confirmations targeting the higher daily supply around 1.9525–1.9585.
Retail Sentiment
83% of traders are short GBP/AUD
Only 17% are long
Average short price sits around 1.9111
With price already trading above most retail entries, many short positions are underwater. A continuation higher could force additional short covering, providing further fuel for the uptrend.
When the vast majority of retail traders are positioned on one side of the market, I always pay close attention.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
Institutional positioning continues to support my bias.
The latest COT report shows speculative traders remain structurally bearish on the Australian Dollar, while positioning on the British Pound has improved with an increase in long exposure and a reduction in short positions.
This suggests institutional flows continue to favour GBP strength relative to AUD.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with the bullish scenario.
Historically, July tends to be a positive month for the British Pound, while the Australian Dollar usually posts only modest gains.
Relative strength therefore still favours GBP, reinforcing the current technical structure.
My Trading Plan
I'm waiting for one of two scenarios:
✅ A pullback into 1.9000–1.9050 followed by bullish confirmation.
or
✅ A clean breakout above 1.9400, followed by a successful retest. GBPAUD: Bullish Push to 1.970?FX:GBPAUD is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 1-hour chart , with price rebounding from support after recent consolidation, converging with a potential entry zone that could ignite upside momentum if buyers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a rally opportunity in the current structure, targeting higher resistance levels with more than 1:2 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 1.895–1.907 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 1.970 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 1.878 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:2 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair's momentum near support.🌟
Fundamentally , GBPAUD is trading around 1.901 in early July 2026.
For the British Pound, one of the most important releases this week is the UK GDP (Q2 Preliminary) and Manufacturing Production data (expected around July 8-10). Stronger-than-expected growth would support GBP.
For the Australian Dollar, the key event is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (likely released July 7-8) and Retail Sales data, where a dovish RBA tone or weak consumer spending would weigh on AUD.
Overall, resilient UK data versus potential softness in Australian figures could favor bullish momentum in GBPAUD this week. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
1.8950 – 1.9070
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 1.9700
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close below 1.8780
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• > 1:2
💡 Does GBPAUD use the 1.8950–1.9070 demand zone as a launchpad toward 1.9700, or do you expect another consolidation phase before the next bullish expansion? 👇 GBPAUD: Ongoing Complex Correction Within Larger Bearish TrendGBPAUD broke below the base channel support at the start of 2026 signaled a meaningful structural shift. This breakdown suggests that a bearish impulsive phase may now be in play, increasing the probability of further downside continuation within a projected five-wave bearish impulse. As long as price remains below key resistance, the broader bias remains bearish, with expectations of additional weakness within wave 5 after the current wave 4 correction.
From a shorter-term perspective, GBPAUD appears to be developing a higher degree wave 4 corrective structure within the current bearish cycle. Price action is likely forming a three-wave corrective pullback within subwave (b), with potential for a retracement toward the 1.9055 support area. This zone may act as a temporary reaction level before the market attempts another upward leg.
Following this pullback, an additional and final push higher is still possible in subwave (c) of wave y, completing a larger wxy corrective structure within higher degree wave 4. This final leg could target the 1.9400 resistance level, where stronger selling pressure is expected to re-emerge.
Overall, the market remains in a corrective-to-bearish transition phase, with short-term upside retracements seen as corrective within a broader weakening structure.
Long
