On the weekly time frame GBPJPY finally managed to break out from its long time resistance. You can see that in the past years it bounced back 3 times but this week it has finally broken it. This means 160+ is next for GBPJPY.
Keep in mind that this is the weekly time frame providing a long term view. There will be plenty of retracements and small corrections to sell.
After seeing the price rejection on GBPJPY, I immediately called bears to occur on this. Sadly before descending, my trade was taken out. Another rationale for entering a short position here was the descending behavior that can be seen on daily at 2017.05.11 to 2017.06.12 in which it shows where temporary correction is to occur before more downside pressure....
Technically: rising wedge (bearish)
Fundamentally:
JPY short positioning overextended
JPY safe haven in the event of equity downturn
GBP strength keeps inflation low - BoE will not hike
Brexit uncertainty remains
GBP positioning not overextended - room for shorts to build
Sentiment
Speculative market sentiment is very bearish yen; underestimating...
Our preference: lighten as long as 1.4707 is stopper with 1.4491 as objective.
Alternative scenario: the overflow of 1.4707, will validate an increase over 1.4785 and 1.4832.
Comment: The RSI is below its neutral zone of 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line.
GBPJPY is a perfect example of why you should also look at te higher time frames. If you would only look at the 30m, 1h, 4h, or even the daily you would quickly judge the GBPJPY has gone up a lot already and that it would be very logical to go back down again. How ever when you take a look and the weekly and monthly you see that price is still rather low and it...
Our preference: sales position below 147.60 with targets at 146.60 & 146.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: in excess of 147.60, aim for a continuation of the rise with 148,10 & 148,50 in line of sight.
Comment: The RSI is misdirected.
We went long on GBPJPY from 140 to 147 and now we have the opportunity to short this pair back down to the trend line. We can see the price has re-tested the 147 resistance line again, making it the third test in 8 months, which meets the requirements of a possible triple top. In order for this to become a valid triple top, we need to wait for price to break...
Our preference: sales position below 147.20 with targets at 146.45 & 146.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: in excess of 147,20, aim for a continuation of the rise with 147,60 & 148,00 in line of sight.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and militates for a continuation of the decline.
