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GDX

GDX resumes its original pathA month ago, the GDX gapped up above the 55EMA to break a downtrending cycle. But it was not sustainable, as previously observed. This week saw the concomitant plummet, alongside Gold, which closed the previous Gap Up with a Gap Down, bringing the week closure below the 55EMA. This is a failed breakout. Technicals support this bearish turn of events, with the MACD and the Price Momentum crossing down. The drivers for this downside move have been described previously... Target 32-33 in Feb 2021.
AMEX:GDX
by Auguraltrader
1
Gold snooked many... Previously mentioned that Gold was in a downtrend... and despite a December rally that started a lot of Gold-to-the-sky talk, I had doubts and hence, no update post as I was patiently observing. Friday proved my suspicion correct as Gold dropped well below the 1900 level after breaking above 1950 for a day. The Friday Gold drop wiped out the month of December's gains in a day. Big hint here. Nonetheless, one of the major reasons for being suspicious about the rally was that the Top 8 traders were obviously selling Gold, not buying. The bottom most panel (yellow line indicator chart) is the Top 8 Net positions. From May to June 2020, the Top 8 traders were accumulating already. And when the non-commercials started joining in the accumulation party, Gold prices took off. December 2020, the Gold rally was supported by retail and clearly, non-commercials (until Christmas). However, it is clearly observable that the Top 8 Traders were distributing instead. Over and above that, technicals show that Gold has a trend change, and needed to consolidate first. MACD was in bearish territory, and price just bounced off 1800 support and channel support despite that there was a large harami type candlestick pattern indicating a couple weeks of Gold rally in December. Well, that has ended... promptly. This week, we saw a break out of channel resistance, and then failure of that break out. Bad news... this typically suggest a breakout on the other side to follow. This can be targeted to be around Feb, at about 1650, if it were to plummet over the next few weeks. Probable at this point as the massive bearish engulfing (after channel breakout failure) is strongly suggesting... I expect to see some small bounce, followed by more of a dive in Gold over the next two to three weeks. Breaking down and out of the channel support represents good opportunities to look for a trend change (back to bull trend). Oh wait... there is a BRB system buy signal, which I intend to discretionarily ignore for now. Perhaps take into consideration IF there is a bounce off the 55EMA in about two weeks. Anyways... Do see my following post about the USD (and the GDX too). It spiked, and contributed to Gold dropping fast on Friday.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
GOLD MINERS GDX bearish tonesPlease see Chart... recent minor failures hint of bearish tones, and technicals are crossing down. Overall, the equity markets are pushing higher on air and expecting a serious pullback soon, after a surprise trigger. Gold prices are not moving despite USD weakening... this is bad for Gold, and Gold Miners particularly. Once the USD jumps, and Gold drops, then the Gold Miners will be in double jeopardy. I like GDX, but it is reeking of danger right now. I would be very wary IMHO...
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
4
Gold consolidating for a (potential) move to $2500 in early 2021With gold being in consolidation mode for a few months, this is a potential path out of the bull flag and trend it's trading in. I've drawn ideal support backtests with little flushes below to shake out weak hands. The measured move out of this trend will replicate the move up from our March generation lows, placing the target somewhere in the $2500 range. Inflation will show up in commodities/PMs as we have the regime change in the US and more stimulus packages to aid the economic recovery.
TVC:GOLDLong
by bubblegumman
BTD on $GOLD $GLD $GDX $JNUG $GDXUWe got some good news on the Stim bill today but it hasn't passed FR FR yet. The House and Senate will vote today on a roughly $900 billion pandemic relief package, with the White House saying President Donald Trump would sign it. The deal includes help for small businesses, the jobless and direct payments to most Americans. The bill that lawmakers will vote on will be attached to a $1.4 trillion measure to fund government operations through the end of the fiscal year. As part of the compromise needed to reach agreement, Democrats allowed a provision to be inserted that would prohibit the Federal Reserve from restarting a program supporting corporate bonds and small businesses due to expire Dec. 31. (no more ink/paper for Powell? ) GOLD- i talked about this a while back, I'm overall bullish on Gold/Gold miner because stimulus passed = more inflation = good for GOLD fundamentally.(yea i know, who cares) $22.20 has been a nice buying opportunity for this company but you could use that area as stoploss as well. Entry $22.20 area Target $25.20 Target 2 $28.20 Stoploss 21.20
NYSE:BLong
by DiYWALLST
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLV, GDX, XLE, IWM/RUTWith two shortened market weeks in a row for Christmas and New Year's, I probably won't be doing a ton here, but figured I'd do a post for how exchange-traded funds are looking in the waning weeks of 2020 ... . EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY PERCENTAGE THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE NEAREST 45 DAYS IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (32/46/11.9%) GDX (18/43/11.0%) XLE (25/42/10.7%) EWZ (14/40/10.0%) XBI (21/36/9.1%) KRE (18/36/9.3%) I'm currently in small XLE, EWZ, KRE, and GLD positions, but will consider adding on weakness if any comes my way and the implied volatility sticks in there. One thing I don't want to do is to constantly follow high implied volatility, only to find myself grossly overweighted in energy, Brazil, and regional banks, however, so don't want to go too crazy adding in sectors that have been high in the list week in and week out over the past several months. BROAD MARKET: IWM (22/29/6.9%) QQQ (19/26/6.5%) SPY (13/22/4.9%) Pictured here is an SPX 50 wide set up to pay at least 10% of the width of the spread, or around 5.00/contract in the expiry nearest 45 days, which would be the February 5th weekly (currently 47 days until expiry). I would ordinarily opt for a higher implied volatility RUT setup, but there currently isn't a February 5th expiry available. You can certainly go with the January 29th (40 days) or the February 19th (59 days), with the preference being to put these on in a down day or days. Smaller account should consider going with SPY or QQQ spreads* with the appropriate combination of of contracts and spread widths commensurate with your account size. BOND FUNDS: TLT (1/15/3.5%) (1.609% Yield) EMB (11/8/2.6%) (4.024% Yield) HYG (7/10/2.1%) (4.917% Yield) AGG (29/9/1.9%) (2.252% Yield) In the IRA, I've been selling HYG short put here of 30 days' duration or so for a credit that is around the monthly dividend. With the December 18th short put having expired worthless, I'll look at adding some in the January 22nd cycle, where the 85 is paying .41 at the mid. As I've pointed out before, the premium in bond funds generally stinks, but I've been using this strategy as a way to deploy buying power that would otherwise be sitting there earning virtually nothing while I await down days or a higher volatility environment. * -- Unfortunately, NDX isn't as liquid as either SPX or RUT, so I virtually never trade NDX spreads, opting instead for equivalent sizing in the QQQ's (e.g., 5 10-wides).
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
(DXY) What Really Is Driving Gold (Yields)There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes. The Financial Solar System Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead treasury yields. However, if we overlay the Dollar index it is astronomically clear that the only times that Gold does this is when the Dollar's gravitational pull temporarily alters Gold's trajectory. Gold prices at the root are inversely corelated with Treasury yields. It is really that simple. The Treasury market is the Sun while Gold, the Dollar, and the Stock market are planets. As treasury yields ultimately dominate and inversely lead Gold prices, the Dollar acts as a secondary force. Yields are the only pre-signal for Market crashes and it looks to me like another leg down is imminent. However, it also looks like the dollar is setting up for a relief rally which means Gold would plummet along side stocks before the Sun sling shots it to new highs.
TVC:GOLD
by trade-God
1