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macro view unclearPast week usd index broke three major resistance and when everything seems to be great(as we are in short position in our group) then boom we saw a massive reversal of usd index,and due to that silver and gold make there strong bullish move,due to involvement of big volume in this scenario we saw such a strong upward move in both of the precious metals, macro and longer term picture-In short term there is quite a uncertainty in both of the precious metals but if gold makes a bearish move again with a volatile manner then it will find support for instance from 1300 its psychologically important level then it can rally up again and can retrace to our current or even 1350 level,again its a possibility as right now our bias is neutral,second possibility which have a high chance that it can turn out to be true in a matter of weeks you can see prices of gold climbs up to 1350 level based on triangle apex reversal,overall short terms picture seems quite confusing but over a longer term we can see many factors contributing towards a massive decline in gold prices,but right now we want to see more clear signs or confirmation before we open any position in our portfolio,we will open long/short position once everything will be clear, Things to consider- -gold almost touched 1300 level and reversed back -reversal accompanied by big volume and cyclical turning point -the USD Index broke below the previous February low -our longer term view is bearish - we took all the profits from the table instead of just limiting the exposure. -no open short/long position in gold or silver
FX:XAUUSD
by NeerajPandey
Mid Term Correction Idea for SG marketSGX:SGP1! Mid Term trade idea for SGX:SGP1 Due to the weakening dollar (DXY) testing a very strong support level, and Singapore market being negatively correlated with the dollar... If the USD bounces above its key long term support, it would then mean that Singapore market would be in a period of intermediate correction. Alternatively, if the USD breaks below it's key long term support, we would see the big boys (banks, HFs, AMs) move their money towards the cheaper assets across the EM countries. Holding USD denominated assets in the alternative scenario will erode the value of their portfolios. Preferred Scenario - USD recovers and bounces above support, EM markets enter temporary correction Short when SGX:SGP1 closes below 399.65. Play the drop towards 378.00 for corrective wave A. RSI also currently finding support and testing neutral level at 50%
SGX:SGP1!Short
by talenttrader
Potential for further Yen Strength. Hello Traders, At the end of the month I like to do some monthly candlestick analysis and look at how the month closed and to get a better feel for the longer term perspective. Technically the yen looks poised for further gains since closing below the previous month's lows. I use depending on the asset class the 10 EMA or 20 EMA on the Monthly Charts to determine what type of trend a market is in. In this case, we have a monthly close for March exactly on the 20 EMA. So anything can happen here. If bulls take control and manage to close above March's highs then it is probable that we test the 124 handle. On the other hand, if April closes below the 20 EMA and March's lows then it is very likely that November USD/JPY bulls will begin to liquidate their long positions and the cross pair can head to test the 100 - 105 handles. Monthly RSI has been on a downtrend since topping out in December of 2014. So strength still remains biased to USD/JPY bears. Feel free to share ideas and open discussion in the comment section! Manage your risk, trade smart and with a plan. =)
by Daniel.B
Oil below Daily 200ma - Testing uptrendHello Traders, Oil is at a true crossroads, testing whether the bull thesis shall be ruled correct. We have had a daily close below the 200ma and as P.T.J says,“One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.” With that being said, oil has tested the uptrend multiple times and we are seeing some weakness across commodity markets as a whole. We are awaiting longer term short positions to trigger when all our filters are met, oil being one of them. If I was looking to enter bullish then oil would have to close above YTD resistance at $55. That seems an unlikely scenario, but if oil can manage a close above there even though the fundamental narrative does not align then that is a clear display of momentum being skewed to the upside and we are long for a short period. For any bullish positioning on a break higher the immediate resistance level to monitor would be $60. If we break lower and out of the triangle then I would be more inclined to short with some key support areas where I will shave some of the position off. Key support areas: $37-$39, $26, anything after $26 then I just hold on to the trend until it stops and reverses thus trailing me out of a position. Please see the linked "related ideas" for some more info or proxy to the oil trade which has already begun. I also tend to update thoughts and technical analysis more often on my twitter page. Feel free to follow me: twitter.com Weekly Bar Chart: Wedge Continuation?
NYMEX:CL1!
by Daniel.B
Long Russian Stock MarketDeep in my heart I am a contrarian. Whether its investing or anything else, usually I like to take the opposite side of the consensus. For this reason, I have been attracted to the Russian stock market for a couple of years. I'm a big reader of Jim Rogers, and I listen to any new YouTube video he appears, and he initially got me started in Russia in 2015. With Russia hated by so many in the US, its easy to miss the great investing opportunities in Russia. For starters, their market PE ratio is only 5.67, compared to the US 27. Secondly, Russia has a ton of agricultural land that is poised for growth and innovation. I am trying to find a way to play Russian Agriculture specifically, but as of right now, I haven't found a reliable answer. If one of y'all has any ideas, please let me know! Nevertheless, looking at the weekly charts, RSX has been beaten up since 2011.However, RSX did just break its 200 MA in a bullish manner, so I took the long side at 20.78 with a stop loss at 19.31, I am currently risking 0.50% of my capital on this trade. I have moved up my stop a little bit as the share price rises. Regardless of what happens to Russia, I am very comfortable with this trade and expect it to deliver asymmetric results. If not, I lose less than 1% of my capital. All the best, RC
RLong
by BrandonBeylo
Out of neutral spread, looking for directional again. Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates section if I decide to add back into a bullish position. Anyhow, good luck to any in bond positions. Trade smart, and with a plan. Cheers. =)
ILong
by Daniel.B
The beginning of a new uptrend? Hello Traders, The previous week offered a decent intra-week opportunity for me to short oil for a 2 day hold on the short (covered on Friday at daily 200 MA). Now on to longer time-frame opportunities with oil and oil related assets. Overlaid on the chart is an area chart of WTI Crude Oil (ticker: /CL). With the potential for further weakness in the black gold we can see the Canadian Dollar trade lower thus pushing USD/CAD above 1.3600 opening the way for the currency pair to trade back up to 1.400 - 1.4500 continuing the trend higher. Keep an eye on crude breaking/bouncing on the ascending trend-line and daily 200 MA. The trade: No position until we get Daily close above 1.3600. Upon a break I'm committing 1% risk to the position. Stop placement will be determined upon a break above 1.3600. Moving Averages: We remain bullish on the bullish 10EMA/50MA crossover. Trading well above Weekly 200 MA. "A man does note have to marry one side of the market till death do them part." - Edwin Lefèvre Monthly Bar Chart: Daily Bar Chart:
by Daniel.B
Another Volume Trade *Keystone*Suncor Energy Inc. broke out of the large accumulation base it formed between $24 - $31 this previous November. Now price has retraced and become bid right at pivot breakout support at $31. Moving Averages % Off 50 Moving Average: +1.5% % Off 200 Moving Average: +11.9% Support / Resistance Supp: $31 ; 50% pivot Res: $33.79 ; 61.8% pivot Volume +210% Above 50 Day Average I expect prices to rise up to test the resistance levels outlined above. A break above would open the door for the $38 pivot resistance. A break below $31 would take it down to multiple levels of support being the 100 and 200 moving averages. Cheers =) www.bloomberg.com
NYSE:SULong
by Daniel.B
EURUSD Macro Look - looks to continue downtrend The Euro looks bearish here along with oil. It has been in a macro downtrend or downward parallel channel since 7/08' which only accelerated the downtrend in 9/14' with the accompanying rising dollar and falling oil prices which the rising dollar is inverse with most currencies and oil. Right now.......the Euro is consolidating along w/ Oil & USD. When USD starts rising again and continuing its uptrend........both Euro and Oil will continue their downtrend. Euro is showing a macro bear flag here w/ tgts. around .90. As always.......watch volume for confirmation.
Short
by djflowmaster