Applying technical analysis in multiple time frames: $BRISIt's time to watch IDX:BRIS weekly time frame closely
If the price breaks 2000, next target is too deep.
Harmonic Patterns
LOADS-LONGAs LOADS is trading in a bullish trend so there is a buy opportunity at CMP for marked tps 22,26,37 and 47 respectively.
FCSC-LONGFCSC is trading in a bullish trend,so we'll buy at current market price for the target of 10.35
Solana Forecast: New SOL Rally Fueled by Fresh TradFi Millions?Solana (SOL) is back in focus as spot Solana ETFs recorded a full week of consistent net inflows, highlighting renewed institutional demand. Launched only at the end of November, Solana spot ETFs have already attracted nearly $700 million in net inflows.
The main driver remains the Bitwise Solana ETF, which not only delivered the second-most successful ETF debut of the year, but has already accumulated $608 million in assets, according to SoSoValue data. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Solana products posted positive net flows on every trading day this week.
Adding to the bullish narrative, Invesco Galaxy recently filed Form 8-A with the U.S. SEC, signaling that another Solana ETF is close to launch. The product will trade under the ticker QSOL. These fresh TradFi inflows could act as a catalyst for SOL — but the technical picture still needs confirmation.
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Solana Technical Analysis
Over the past 12–24 hours, SOL traded in a tight range between $131.60 and $133.82 (last six candles). The current price stands at $132.43, slightly below the previous daily close at $132.88. Market capitalization is approximately $74.5 billion.
Price action remains below the 20-day EMA at $133.71, and the latest structure shows slightly lower highs, indicating short-term pressure.
Key support levels are located at $132.20 (Fibonacci) and $128.50 (lower Bollinger Band).
Immediate resistance sits at $133.82, followed by $137.79.
As long as SOL trades below the EMA-20, the market structure remains neutral to mildly bearish.
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Momentum & Volatility
• RSI (14): 33.7 — weak momentum, approaching oversold territory
• Momentum histogram still points lower, though downside acceleration is slowing
• Bollinger Band width: ~$9.74 (~7.3%) — moderate but noticeable volatility
This setup suggests consolidation, not a confirmed reversal yet. Risk remains elevated while price stays below dynamic resistance.
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Short-Term Solana Outlook
Bias: Neutral → slightly bearish
Key supports:
• $132.20 (Fibonacci)
• $128.50 (lower Bollinger Band)
Key resistances:
• $133.82
• $137.79
A break above $133.82 would open short-term upside toward $137.79.
A break below $128.50 increases downside risk toward $123.11 (Fibonacci base).
Watch RSI (33.7) and the EMA-20 ($133.71) as primary short-term triggers. Given the current volatility and large market cap, conservative position sizing remains essential.
Prediction for btc For next Liquidity Swipes1) What “Liquidity Swipes / Liquidity Sweeps” Mean in BTC Context
In trading terminology, a liquidity sweep occurs when price temporarily breaches a cluster of orders (stop‑losses or limit orders) at key technical levels and triggers them, often before reversing or continuing in trend. These are not new fundamentals but rather order‑flow events that cause short‑term volatility spikes.
Quadcode
Why it matters for BTC:
Major liquidity sweeps are typically seen near psychological round numbers, prior multi‑week highs/lows, or major support/resistance zones.
They can generate false breakouts and look like trend changes, but often represent liquidity exhaustion by large participants.
onesafe.io
Note: Liquidity sweeps themselves aren’t predictive of long‑term direction by default; their interpretation depends on whether price rejects back inside the range (bearish continuation) or accepts beyond the level (bullish trend).
Equiti Default
2) Near‑Term BTC Price Expectations (Late 2025 – Early 2026)
Analyst forecasts and on‑chain/technical indicators suggest broad consensus around a mild to moderate uptrend, but with wide uncertainty ranges:
Conservative / Technical‑Driven View
Some technical models project BTC holding around current levels with modest growth into 2026 (examples show moderate annual increases of 5–10%).
Kraken
Short‑term ranges near liquidity sweep zones (like $90K–$100K) may persist if volatility prevails.
Bullish Institutional‑Flow View
A number of analysts, especially those incorporating spot ETF flows, reduced circulating supply, and post‑halving dynamics, forecast continued upward pressure into early 2026. Key potential levels frequently mentioned are:
$110,000 to $130,000+ by mid‑2026 if institutional flows resume.
CoinDCX
Mixed Macro and Revised Analyst Targets
Standard Chartered revised its 2026 Bitcoin target to around $150,000, citing reliance on ETF inflows rather than corporate treasury buying.
Business Insider
Fundstrat and other bullish forecasters have suggested forecasts as high as $200,000–$250,000+ by year‑end 2026 under strong ETF demand assumptions.
finance.yahoo.com
Key takeaway: Consensus ranges for year‑end 2026 span $100K to $250K+, reflecting differing models and assumptions.
3) How Liquidity Events Relate to Price Predictions
Key Influences During Liquidity Swipes:
Liquidity sweeps can act as inflection points—triggering large collections of stops which may either accelerate an upward trend (if accepted) or signal temporary sell‑offs before resuming a broader trend.
Equiti Default
Near major technical levels (e.g., round‑number support/resistance, or previous swing highs), sweeps could amplify volatility, especially with low macro liquidity.
Quadcode
Implication for Forecasts:
A sweep through a key resistance (e.g., above recent highs) followed by acceptance could propel BTC toward higher analyst targets.
Conversely, repeated sweeps with rejection may keep BTC range‑bound or trigger deeper consolidation before resuming trend.
Thus, liquidity events are not standalone price predictors but confirmation mechanisms within a larger trend framework.
4) Macro & Liquidity Backdrop
BTC’s price trajectory is also influenced by external liquidity conditions:
Broad risk asset liquidity (Fed policy direction, interest rate expectations) affects BTC volatility and risk appetite. Recent guidance suggests uncertainty around the pace of easing into 2026, which could both tighten and widen BTC trading ranges.
MEXC
Low liquidity periods tend to magnify liquidity sweeps and sharp intra‑day moves.
5) Summary Outlook (Forecast Bands)
Time Period Scenario Rough BTC Forecast
Late 2025 Post‑liquidity consolidation ~$90K–$110K
Early 2026 ETF‑driven flows resume ~$110K–$130K
Year‑End 2026 (Moderate) Mixed macro ~$120K–$150K
Year‑End 2026 (Bullish) Strong institutional flows ~$180K–$250K+
These are ranges based on existing analyst forecasts and technical projections (not financial advice) and assume major liquidity and macro drivers remain active through next year.
Business Insider
+1
6) Practical Considerations
Liquidity sweeps in BTC are most relevant on shorter time frames; use them with broader trend analysis and volume context.
Macro conditions and ETF flows will likely be dominant drivers in 2026 rather than liquidity sweeps alone.
Gold Price Analysis for Next WeekPolicy Landscape: Strengthened Dovish Undertones with Hawkish Expectations Fully Priced In
The Federal Reserve’s policy package has formed a strong underpinning: At the December FOMC meeting, it cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. Meanwhile, it launched a "light balance sheet expansion" program involving monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills. Although Chairman Powell emphasized that this move does not constitute quantitative easing (QE), it essentially replenishes market liquidity and reduces the cost of holding gold. During the press conference, Powell made it clear that "interest rate hikes are not part of the baseline scenario", tilting the policy scale toward prioritizing employment. Coupled with the expectation that Kevin Hassett, a dovish candidate, will take office as the next Fed Chair, the market has fully absorbed the hawkish guidance from the dot plot indicating only one interest rate cut in 2026, and the logic for the continuation of the easing cycle remains intact.
The divergence in global monetary policies bodes well for gold: Following the Fed’s easing move, central banks including the Central Bank of the UAE have followed suit with interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index is under pressure around the 99.5 level; if it breaks below the 30-day moving average, it is likely to pull back toward the 98 mark, providing exchange rate-driven support for gold prices. Simultaneously, the accelerating global "de-dollarization" drive among central banks has continuously enhanced the strategic value of gold as a reserve asset.
Nonfarm payrolls data has emerged as a key short-term variable: The upcoming release of US nonfarm payrolls data (if published) will influence the pace of interest rate cut expectations. A weak employment report—with net new nonfarm jobs fewer than 150,000—will reinforce expectations of further easing and drive gold prices to break through $4,350. Conversely, surprisingly strong data may trigger a short-term pullback. Nevertheless, the support around the $4,250 level remains solid.
Gold trading strategy for next week
buy：4265-4275
tp:4290-4330-4330
Stiffes XRP ChartThe chart maps XRP from 2017 to 2030 on a monthly timeframe.
Key external events (legal, macroeconomic, political) are explicitly marked.
Green vertical lines indicate cyclical tops, while red vertical lines indicate cyclical bottoms.
Price action develops within a clearly defined long-term ascending channel, which has been respected across multiple cycles.
Each cycle unfolds through a triangle consolidation pattern, followed by an impulse move and a corrective phase.
Fibonacci retracements are included to visualize the relationship between impulsive and corrective moves; prior corrections repeatedly align with the 0.618–0.786 levels.
The time cycles of 1,461 days (4 years) remain consistent throughout the chart, indicating a stable cyclical rhythm.
Based on time structure and pattern repetition, a cyclical endpoint is projected around 2029–2030, coinciding with a broader macroeconomic reset period.
#UMA/USDT#UMA
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest.
We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 1.36.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend.
We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average.
Entry price: 1.39
First target: 1.42
Second target: 1.45
Third target: 1.49
#UMA/USDT#UMA
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading toward a strong breakout and retest.
We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 1.36.
We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend.
We are heading toward stability above the 100 moving average.
Entry price: 1.41
First target: 1.45
Second target: 1.50
Third target: 1.57
#APE/USDT chart (1-hour timeframe)#APE
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards breaking above it, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which has reached near the lower boundary, and an upward rebound is expected.
There is a key support zone in green at 0.2412. The price has bounced from this zone multiple times and is expected to bounce again.
We have a trend towards consolidation above the 100-period moving average, as we are moving close to it, which supports the upward movement.
Entry price: 0.2453
First target: 0.2500
Second target: 0.2565
Third target: 0.2652
Don't forget a simple principle: money management.
Place your stop-loss order below the green support zone.
For any questions, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
#DYM/USDT : BUY LOW
#DYM
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards breaking above it, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which has reached near the lower boundary, and an upward rebound is expected.
There is a key support zone in green at 0.07430. The price has bounced from this level multiple times and is expected to bounce again.
We have a trend towards stability above the 100-period moving average, as we are moving close to it, which supports the upward movement.
Entry price: 0.07600
First target: 0.07726
Second target: 0.07915
Third target: 0.08157
Don't forget a simple principle: money management.
Place your stop-loss below the support zone in green.
For any questions, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
Investing in Gold: A Comprehensive Analysis1. Why Invest in Gold?
Gold offers several compelling reasons for investment. Primarily, it acts as a hedge against inflation. During periods when the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, gold prices generally rise, preserving wealth. For example, during the 1970s, the US experienced high inflation, and gold prices surged dramatically.
Additionally, gold provides protection during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. In times of financial crises, such as the 2008 global recession, investors flocked to gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold is not tied to any single country’s economy, making it a globally recognized store of value.
Diversification is another key reason. Financial advisors often suggest including gold in an investment portfolio to reduce overall risk. Unlike stocks or bonds, gold has a low or negative correlation with other asset classes, which means its value can remain stable or even rise when other investments falter.
2. Forms of Gold Investment
Investors can access gold through various channels, each with unique advantages and considerations:
Physical Gold: This includes gold bars, coins, and jewelry. Physical gold provides tangible ownership and a psychological sense of security. However, it requires safe storage and insurance, and liquidity can sometimes be a concern.
Gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): These funds track gold prices and are traded on stock exchanges. They offer a convenient and liquid way to invest without dealing with physical gold. They typically have lower transaction costs compared to buying physical gold.
Gold Mutual Funds: These invest in gold mining companies or gold-related assets. They offer exposure to gold without owning it directly and can generate returns through dividends and capital appreciation.
Gold Futures and Options: These are derivatives that allow investors to speculate on future gold prices. They can provide significant leverage but carry high risk, making them suitable only for experienced investors.
Digital Gold: This is a modern form of investment where investors can buy gold online in small quantities. It offers convenience and security without the need for physical storage.
3. Factors Influencing Gold Prices
Gold prices are influenced by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors. Understanding these drivers can help investors make informed decisions:
Inflation and Interest Rates: Gold is often inversely related to interest rates. When real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are low or negative, gold becomes more attractive, driving up prices.
Currency Movements: Gold is priced in US dollars globally. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for other currency holders, often increasing demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar can suppress gold prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Wars, conflicts, and political instability can increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Central Bank Policies: Central banks around the world hold significant gold reserves. Changes in their buying or selling behavior can impact global prices.
Supply and Demand: Gold mining production, recycling, and industrial demand (especially in jewelry and technology) influence supply and demand dynamics.
4. Benefits of Investing in Gold
Investing in gold provides multiple advantages:
Wealth Preservation: Gold has historically maintained its value over centuries, protecting investors from currency depreciation and economic downturns.
Portfolio Diversification: It reduces overall portfolio risk due to its low correlation with stocks and bonds.
Liquidity: Gold is globally recognized and can be quickly sold or exchanged for cash in most markets.
Inflation Hedge: Gold tends to retain purchasing power during periods of rising prices.
Safe Haven During Crises: It is considered a stable investment during financial and geopolitical turmoil.
5. Risks of Investing in Gold
Despite its advantages, gold investment carries certain risks:
Price Volatility: Although gold is less volatile than stocks, it can still experience short-term price fluctuations due to market sentiment or speculative activity.
No Income Generation: Unlike stocks or bonds, gold does not provide dividends or interest. Returns depend solely on price appreciation.
Storage and Security Concerns: Physical gold requires secure storage and insurance, which can incur additional costs.
Market Timing Risk: Buying gold at a peak can result in temporary losses if prices decline before an investor exits.
6. Strategies for Investing in Gold
Successful gold investment requires careful planning and strategy:
Long-Term Investment: Investors seeking stability can buy and hold gold for the long term to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
Diversification: Allocate a portion of the portfolio to gold alongside equities, bonds, and real estate to balance risk. Many advisors recommend 5–15% of a portfolio in gold.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: Buying gold in regular intervals, regardless of price, can mitigate the impact of short-term volatility.
Monitoring Macroeconomic Trends: Keeping track of inflation rates, interest rates, currency movements, and geopolitical events can help in timing investments.
Combining Physical and Paper Gold: A combination of physical gold for security and ETFs or mutual funds for liquidity can optimize returns while managing risks.
7. Conclusion
Gold remains a timeless investment vehicle with unique advantages. It offers protection against inflation, acts as a hedge during economic and geopolitical instability, and provides diversification to investment portfolios. While gold does not generate income, its long-term value preservation and liquidity make it a preferred choice for conservative investors. Understanding the forms of gold investment, factors influencing its price, and implementing strategic approaches can help investors leverage gold effectively for wealth protection and growth.
Whether through physical ownership, digital platforms, or financial instruments, gold remains an essential component of a balanced investment strategy. By carefully assessing individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions, investors can harness the enduring appeal of gold to safeguard and grow their wealth.
World Finance Rating Agencies: An OverviewHistorical Background
The concept of credit ratings originated in the early 20th century. The first formal credit rating agencies were Moody’s (founded in 1909) and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) (with origins in 1860, evolving into S&P in 1941). Fitch Ratings, founded in 1913, also became a major player in the credit rating industry.
Initially, these agencies focused on rating bonds and fixed-income instruments in the United States. Over time, their operations expanded globally, covering sovereign nations, multinational corporations, structured finance products, and emerging markets. Today, the "Big Three"—Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch—dominate global credit ratings, collectively controlling roughly 95% of the market.
Purpose and Function
Financial rating agencies serve several critical functions in global finance:
Credit Risk Assessment: Agencies evaluate the likelihood that a borrower will default on obligations. Ratings range from high-grade (low risk) to junk (high risk), providing a snapshot of credit quality.
Investor Guidance: Investors, particularly institutional ones, use ratings to make informed investment decisions. Many funds and pension plans have policies restricting investments to certain rating thresholds.
Market Efficiency: Ratings reduce information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. Investors can quickly gauge risk without conducting extensive internal research.
Regulatory Role: Financial regulators often incorporate ratings into capital adequacy rules. Banks, insurance companies, and investment funds may need higher capital reserves when investing in lower-rated securities.
Benchmarking and Pricing: Ratings influence borrowing costs. Higher-rated entities enjoy lower interest rates, while lower-rated issuers pay a premium for risk.
Types of Ratings
Financial rating agencies provide different types of ratings, depending on the instrument or entity being assessed:
Sovereign Ratings: Assess a country's ability and willingness to repay debt. These ratings impact government bond yields and influence foreign investment flows. Examples: U.S. AAA rating by S&P or India’s BBB- rating by Fitch.
Corporate Ratings: Evaluate corporations’ creditworthiness, often for bonds or long-term loans. These ratings reflect financial health, debt structure, profitability, and operational stability.
Structured Finance Ratings: Include mortgage-backed securities (MBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and asset-backed securities (ABS). These complex instruments require detailed risk modeling.
Municipal Ratings: Cover local government entities or projects, particularly in the U.S., affecting municipal bond markets.
Short-Term Ratings: Assess liquidity and ability to meet short-term obligations, often for commercial paper and money market instruments.
Rating Methodologies
Agencies use a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods to assign ratings. Key factors include:
Financial Ratios: Debt-to-equity ratio, interest coverage ratio, profitability, and liquidity.
Economic Environment: Macro conditions, inflation rates, currency stability, and economic growth.
Political Stability: For sovereign ratings, political risk, governance, and regulatory frameworks are crucial.
Industry Analysis: Sectoral trends, competition, and market dynamics.
Management Quality: Corporate governance, strategy, and operational competence.
The resulting rating is expressed as a letter grade. For example, S&P uses AAA (highest quality) to D (default), with intermediate grades like AA+, BBB-, etc. Moody’s uses a numeric system combined with letters (e.g., A1, Baa3).
Global Influence of Rating Agencies
Credit rating agencies have a profound impact on global finance:
Capital Flow Direction: Sovereign ratings influence foreign investment, with higher-rated countries attracting more capital.
Interest Rates and Borrowing Costs: Ratings directly affect yields on bonds and the cost of capital.
Financial Market Stability: Ratings changes can trigger large-scale portfolio reallocations, influencing stock and bond markets worldwide.
Emerging Markets: Agencies heavily affect emerging economies, where a downgrade can sharply increase debt servicing costs and reduce investor confidence.
Criticism and Controversies
Despite their significance, rating agencies have faced substantial criticism:
Conflict of Interest: Agencies are paid by the issuers they rate, creating potential bias. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, they rated many subprime mortgage-backed securities as AAA, later revealed to be extremely risky.
Procyclicality: Ratings can amplify financial cycles. Downgrades during crises may force asset sales, worsening liquidity problems.
Opaque Methodologies: The complexity and lack of transparency in rating models, especially for structured finance products, make it difficult for external stakeholders to assess validity.
Regulatory Overreliance: Banks and investors often rely heavily on ratings for compliance, sometimes ignoring independent analysis, which can exacerbate financial instability.
Market Concentration: The dominance of the Big Three limits competition, potentially reducing innovation and accuracy in risk assessment.
Reforms and Modern Trends
In response to criticism, rating agencies have evolved:
Increased Transparency: Agencies now publish methodologies, criteria, and assumptions used in ratings.
Regulatory Oversight: Post-2008 reforms, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and EU regulation, increased oversight to reduce conflicts of interest.
Emergence of Alternatives: New players like DBRS Morningstar, Scope Ratings, and China Chengxin provide alternatives to the Big Three.
Integration of ESG Factors: Many agencies now incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics, reflecting long-term sustainability risks.
Technology and Big Data: Advanced analytics, machine learning, and real-time data improve predictive accuracy for ratings.
Regional and Global Perspectives
United States: The U.S. remains the center of rating agency operations, with S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch headquartered there. U.S. ratings influence global capital markets due to the dollar’s reserve currency status.
Europe: European regulators have attempted to encourage competition, with agencies like Scope Ratings (Germany) and Creditreform Rating gaining traction.
Asia: Emerging economies like China, India, and Japan have local agencies (e.g., China Chengxin, CRISIL, Japan Credit Rating Agency) to supplement international ratings.
Global Coordination: International bodies like the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) set principles for credit rating agencies to enhance reliability and transparency globally.
Conclusion
World finance rating agencies play a critical role in shaping global financial markets. Their ratings guide investor behavior, influence borrowing costs, and contribute to market efficiency. However, their dominance and occasional lapses in judgment highlight the need for careful oversight, transparency, and the integration of alternative perspectives. The evolution toward ESG considerations, technological adoption, and regional diversification suggests that rating agencies will continue to adapt to the complex demands of modern global finance.
While their influence is undeniable, investors and policymakers must balance reliance on ratings with independent analysis and prudent risk management. The interplay between these agencies, global capital markets, and regulatory frameworks ensures that they will remain central players in international finance for decades to come.
Critical Elements Supply: Understanding the ConceptIntroduction
The modern world depends heavily on a wide range of raw materials and essential elements to maintain economic growth, technological advancement, and national security. Among these, critical elements—sometimes referred to as critical minerals—play a pivotal role in industries like electronics, energy, aerospace, defense, and renewable technologies. The supply of these critical elements is increasingly becoming a topic of strategic importance globally because of their scarcity, geopolitical concentration, and rising demand. Understanding critical elements supply involves examining what makes an element critical, the factors influencing their availability, global supply chains, and strategies for managing risk.
Defining Critical Elements
Critical elements are materials deemed essential for industrial and technological development but whose supply is vulnerable due to various economic, geopolitical, or technical factors. These are often elements for which:
Substitute materials are limited or non-existent.
Demand is growing rapidly, often driven by new technologies like electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, solar panels, and high-tech electronics.
Supply is concentrated in a few countries, making global supply chains sensitive to geopolitical tensions.
Recycling and recovery processes are underdeveloped, leading to reliance on primary extraction.
Examples of critical elements include rare earth elements (REEs) such as neodymium and dysprosium, lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries, platinum-group metals for catalytic converters, and indium and gallium for semiconductors and solar cells.
Factors Affecting the Supply of Critical Elements
Geological Scarcity
The distribution of critical elements in the Earth's crust is uneven. Some elements, such as lithium and cobalt, are concentrated in a few regions like the Lithium Triangle in South America (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for cobalt. This geological scarcity makes supply vulnerable to localized disruptions.
Mining and Extraction Challenges
Extracting and processing critical elements can be technologically complex and environmentally sensitive. Many critical elements are byproducts of other mining operations. For instance, indium is a byproduct of zinc mining, and some rare earths are obtained as byproducts of phosphate mining. This interdependence can lead to supply bottlenecks.
Geopolitical Risks
Countries holding a significant portion of global reserves often use their resources as strategic tools. China, for example, dominates the production and processing of rare earth elements, controlling about 80-90% of the global market. Political instability, trade restrictions, or policy changes in producing nations can disrupt global supply chains.
Economic Factors
Price volatility, investment in mining infrastructure, and global demand fluctuations can significantly affect supply. Low prices might discourage exploration and production, while high prices can lead to rapid expansion of supply or overexploitation.
Environmental and Regulatory Constraints
Mining critical elements often involves significant environmental risks, including habitat destruction, water contamination, and radioactive waste (especially with rare earth extraction). Stricter environmental regulations can limit production rates or increase costs, influencing supply reliability.
Global Supply Chain Dynamics
The supply of critical elements is heavily reliant on global trade networks. Key stages in the supply chain include mining, processing/refining, manufacturing, and recycling. Supply chains are often concentrated in a few countries, making them vulnerable to disruptions:
China: Dominates rare earth mining, processing, and export; controls a significant portion of the global supply of critical elements like magnesium, gallium, and graphite.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Accounts for more than 60% of cobalt production.
Australia: Major supplier of lithium and rare earth elements.
South America: Lithium extraction in Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia.
The dependency on a small number of suppliers creates systemic risk, making industries vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, trade wars, or resource nationalism.
Technological Dependence and Criticality
The criticality of elements is not only determined by scarcity but also by technological dependence. For instance:
Electronics: Elements like indium, gallium, and tantalum are essential for semiconductors, touch screens, and microelectronics.
Renewable Energy: Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths are crucial for batteries, magnets, and photovoltaic cells.
Defense and Aerospace: Platinum-group metals, titanium, and hafnium are necessary for military hardware and aerospace applications.
As technology evolves, new elements can become critical due to increasing demand, while others may lose importance if substitutes or recycling options emerge.
Challenges in Ensuring Stable Supply
Market Concentration
Overreliance on a few suppliers can lead to supply disruptions. For example, China's dominance in rare earths led the U.S. and EU to explore alternative sources after past export restrictions.
Sustainability Concerns
Mining critical elements often has severe environmental consequences. Sustainability initiatives and ethical sourcing are becoming critical for maintaining long-term supply chains.
Recycling and Circular Economy
Low recycling rates for critical elements exacerbate supply vulnerability. Technologies for recovering rare earths, lithium, and other critical materials from used electronics and batteries are still developing.
Strategic Stockpiling
Some nations maintain strategic reserves to mitigate supply risks. For instance, the U.S., Japan, and EU countries stockpile critical minerals to ensure national security and technological independence.
Strategies to Secure Critical Element Supply
Diversifying Supply Sources
Countries and companies are seeking alternative sources of critical elements to reduce dependence on a single supplier or region. Exploration of new deposits in Africa, Australia, and North America is increasing.
Developing Domestic Production
Promoting domestic mining and processing capabilities can reduce reliance on foreign sources. This strategy requires investment in infrastructure, technology, and workforce development.
Recycling and Substitution
Advanced recycling techniques and material substitution can help reduce pressure on primary supply. For example, recycling lithium-ion batteries for lithium, cobalt, and nickel recovery is gaining momentum.
Strategic Partnerships and Trade Agreements
Forming international partnerships for joint mining projects, technology sharing, and trade agreements ensures more stable access to critical materials.
Research and Innovation
Investments in alternative materials, efficient extraction methods, and sustainable mining practices are crucial to overcoming supply limitations.
Conclusion
The supply of critical elements is a cornerstone of modern industrial and technological advancement. However, it is fraught with challenges stemming from geological scarcity, geopolitical concentration, environmental constraints, and rising demand driven by emerging technologies. Managing these challenges requires a multi-pronged approach, including diversification of sources, recycling, substitution, strategic stockpiling, and international collaboration. Governments, industries, and researchers worldwide are recognizing the strategic importance of these materials and actively seeking sustainable and resilient supply chain solutions.
As global economies increasingly transition to green technologies, digitalization, and advanced manufacturing, the criticality of these elements will only grow. Understanding and securing their supply is therefore not just an economic necessity but a strategic imperative for national security and technological leadership.
BTC | 4HBTC — Quantum Model Projection
4H Zoom-In | Reversal Structure
BTC has declined 4.3% as outlined in the previous analysis, and a further 4.44% drop is expected — completing the remaining portion of Minor Wave 2 retracement toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the primary zone for structural completion.
The reversal thesis remains favoured, with the Leading Diagonal still the most probable early-wave formation—an origin phase of the Primary degree uptrend.
Notably, from my perspective, BTC may be in the initiating stage of Primary Wave ⓹ within the 2nd Cycle (the fifth wave of Wave III).
🔖 This potential reversal has been projected since Nov. 15 during the BTC decline.
SLNH | DailyNASDAQ:SLNH — Quantum Model Projection
Technical Update | Daily
Soluna continued its rise intraday, extending its upward momentum, posting a standout rally of 48.22% this week — even during the broader BTC decline — followed by a measured pullback that is now holding firmly along the equivalence lines confluence, which serves as a structural support zone.
The Q-Target of $8.88 💫 remains unchanged, implying a near-term upside potential of roughly +364% by late December, as the broader bullish structure of Intermediate Wave (1) continues to unfold.
A decisive break above $5.13 will fully confirm the Leading Diagonal in Intermediate Wave (1), validating it as the structural foundation for the emerging Primary degree uptrend.
🔖 This outlook is derived from insights within my Quantum Models framework.
FLOKI/USDT – Big Rebound or Structural Breakdown?Timeframe: 5 Day
Market Condition: After a strong parabolic rally, FLOKI has entered a macro correction and distribution phase
Price is currently trading at a critical decision zone that will determine whether the macro bullish trend continues or shifts into a bearish structure
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🟨 Key Support Zone (Yellow Block)
0.0000335 – 0.0000270
This zone represents:
Strong historical demand area
Previous accumulation base before a major impulsive move
High-probability buyer reaction zone
The last line of defense for long-term bullish structure
As long as price holds above this zone, FLOKI remains structurally bullish on a macro scale.
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📐 Market Structure & Pattern Analysis
🔹 1. Market Structure
Formation of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) → short-to-mid term downtrend
However, no confirmed major support breakdown yet
This move is still classified as a deep correction within a larger bullish cycle
---
🔹 2. Supply & Resistance Zones (Dashed Yellow Lines)
Key resistance levels:
0.0000730
0.0001125
0.0001380
These zones act as:
Major supply areas
Former support turned resistance
Potential distribution zones if price fails to break above them
---
🔹 3. Price Action Pattern
Current structure suggests:
Descending structure / falling channel
Potential development into:
Double Bottom (Bullish Reversal)
or Bearish Continuation Breakdown
Confirmation depends heavily on price reaction at the key support zone.
---
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Primary Reversal Setup)
Key conditions:
Strong rejection and sustained price action above 0.0000335 – 0.0000270
Presence of bullish candles with long lower wicks or impulsive moves
Bullish progression:
1. Strong rebound from key support
2. Formation of Higher Low (HL)
3. Break of minor structure
4. Upside targets:
🎯 0.0000730
🎯 0.0001125
🎯 0.0001380
📈 Bias: Buy on confirmation and reaction, not blind entries.
---
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Structural Breakdown)
Key conditions:
Strong 5D candle close below 0.0000270
Lack of meaningful buyer rejection
Implications:
Macro bullish structure becomes invalid
Previous support flips into resistance
Potential continuation toward:
0.0000200
Or a full retest of previous macro lows
📉 Bias: Breakdown favors trend continuation to the downside.
---
🧠 Technical Conclusion
FLOKI is currently sitting at a macro decision zone
The yellow support block is the critical level
Price reaction here will define:
🔄 Major bullish reversal
or ⛔ Extended bearish continuation
> “It’s not about predicting direction, it’s about reacting to confirmation at key levels.”
---
⚠️ Risk Management Note
Wait for candle confirmation
Avoid emotional entries
Always apply proper risk management
---
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#TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
#SupportResistance #Altcoins
#BullishScenario #BearishScenario
#TradingView #CryptoTrading
#MarketStructure #SupplyDemand
Nnnn//@version=4
study(title="UT Bot Alerts", overlay = true)
// Inputs
a = input(1, title = "Key Vaule. 'This changes the sensitivity'")
c = input(10, title = "ATR Period")
h = input(false, title = "Signals from Heikin Ashi Candles")
xATR = atr(c)
nLoss = a * xATR
src = h ? security(heikinashi(syminfo.tickerid), timeframe.period, close, lookahead = false) : close
xATRTrailingStop = 0.0
xATRTrailingStop := iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), max(nz(xATRTrailingStop ), src - nLoss),
iff(src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), min(nz(xATRTrailingStop ), src + nLoss),
iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), src - nLoss, src + nLoss)))
pos = 0
pos := iff(src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), 1,
iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), -1, nz(pos , 0)))
xcolor = pos == -1 ? color.red: pos == 1 ? color.green : color.blue
ema = ema(src,1)
above = crossover(ema, xATRTrailingStop)
below = crossover(xATRTrailingStop, ema)
buy = src > xATRTrailingStop and above
sell = src < xATRTrailingStop and below
barbuy = src > xATRTrailingStop
barsell = src < xATRTrailingStop
plotshape(buy, title = "Buy", text = 'Buy', style = shape.labelup, location = location.belowbar, color= color.green, textcolor = color.white, transp = 0, size = size.tiny)
plotshape(sell, title = "Sell", text = 'Sell', style = shape.labeldown, location = location.abovebar, color= color.red, textcolor = color.white, transp = 0, size = size.tiny)
barcolor(barbuy ? color.green : na)
barcolor(barsell ? color.red : na)
alertcondition(buy, "UT Long", "UT Long")
alertcondition(sell, "UT Short", "UT Short")
//@version=4 study(title="UT Bot Alerts", overlay = true) // In//@version=4
study(title="UT Bot Alerts", overlay = true)
// Inputs
a = input(1, title = "Key Vaule. 'This changes the sensitivity'")
c = input(10, title = "ATR Period")
h = input(false, title = "Signals from Heikin Ashi Candles")
xATR = atr(c)
nLoss = a * xATR
src = h ? security(heikinashi(syminfo.tickerid), timeframe.period, close, lookahead = false) : close
xATRTrailingStop = 0.0
xATRTrailingStop := iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), max(nz(xATRTrailingStop ), src - nLoss),
iff(src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), min(nz(xATRTrailingStop ), src + nLoss),
iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), src - nLoss, src + nLoss)))
pos = 0
pos := iff(src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), 1,
iff(src > nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0) and src < nz(xATRTrailingStop , 0), -1, nz(pos , 0)))
xcolor = pos == -1 ? color.red: pos == 1 ? color.green : color.blue
ema = ema(src,1)
above = crossover(ema, xATRTrailingStop)
below = crossover(xATRTrailingStop, ema)
buy = src > xATRTrailingStop and above
sell = src < xATRTrailingStop and below
barbuy = src > xATRTrailingStop
barsell = src < xATRTrailingStop
plotshape(buy, title = "Buy", text = 'Buy', style = shape.labelup, location = location.belowbar, color= color.green, textcolor = color.white, transp = 0, size = size.tiny)
plotshape(sell, title = "Sell", text = 'Sell', style = shape.labeldown, location = location.abovebar, color= color.red, textcolor = color.white, transp = 0, size = size.tiny)
barcolor(barbuy ? color.green : na)
barcolor(barsell ? color.red : na)
alertcondition(buy, "UT Long", "UT Long")
alertcondition(sell, "UT Short", "UT Short")
PATH: Bottom confirmed PATH:
Bottom confirmed
Catch up at LPS- good entry and so far target.
.
US STOCKS- WALL STREET DREAM- LET'S THE MARKET SPEAK!
