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USDCAD: Institutions Accumulating? Perfect Pullback Into FVG1. MACRO & COT FRAMEWORK COT – CAD → Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD. The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts. Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD. COT – USD → USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting. The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength. → Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD. 2. RETAIL SENTIMENT Retail Longs: 51% Retail Shorts: 49% Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long. This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD. Sentiment confirms a bullish bias. 3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November) November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD. The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency. The current month is tracking a similar pattern. Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel. Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity. Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel. The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980. A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence. Immediate Support Zone 1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support) → ideal area for long accumulation. Upside Target: 1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high. RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
EURUSD bullish Signal 12 NovFollowing up on the previous EURUSD analysis, the price is expected to continue its upward movement, aiming to break the previous high and potentially reach the 1.16055 level. However, before doing so, a short-term pullback could occur from the order block around 1.15675. This area represents a strong zone of previous momentum and liquidity, making it a key region to watch for potential reactions. A sweep of liquidity from this zone could provide the necessary fuel for the next bullish leg. It is preferable to wait for confirmation — such as a 15-minute candle close inside the order block — before considering long entries, as this would strengthen the bullish bias and confirm order flow alignment.
Long
by Mr_Liquidity1
2
EURUDF quick sell opportunityAfter EURUSD rallied from a strong order block zone, the pair is now expected to retrace from the 1.15833 level. This area aligns with potential short-term resistance and could trigger a bearish reaction targeting the trendline liquidity on the 15-minute timeframe. The recent sweep of liquidity around this level reinforces its significance, suggesting that sell-side pressure may start building up. As a result, the price could move lower to capture liquidity resting beneath recent swing lows before finding new demand or continuing its broader trend.
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
EURAUD: Institutional Buying Pressure & Bullish November SetupThe pair has broken out of the descending channel and is now forming a new ascending structure. Price reacted strongly from the 1.7550–1.7600 demand zone, which aligns with a key structural support and an oversold RSI area. The current consolidation phase is unfolding below a daily inefficiency (gap) around 1.7800–1.7920, which represents the first bullish target. If the bullish structure holds, we could see a three-wave move towards 1.7920, with a potential mid-term pullback to 1.7700 before the next impulsive leg. 🔹 2. COT Report Euro (EUR) Non-commercials: 252k long vs 138k short → net long Commercials: strongly net short Weekly change: +2.6k shorts / -789 longs → slightly reduced bullish momentum ➡️ EUR remains fundamentally strong, though speculative momentum has slightly cooled. Australian Dollar (AUD) Non-commercials: 42k long vs 101k short → deeply net short Shorts increased by +10k this week, indicating renewed institutional bearish pressure. ➡️ AUD remains weak with a clear bearish bias. 👉 Overall COT bias: favors EUR strength and AUD weakness, supporting a bullish view on EURAUD. 🔹 3. Seasonality EUR typically strengthens in November, especially during the last 10 days of the month (+0.003 / +0.004 average). AUD historically shows November weakness across 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y averages. ➡️ Seasonal patterns support the bullish case for EURAUD, aligning with COT positioning. 🔹 4. Retail Sentiment 70% short vs 30% long ➡️ Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal. 📈 Conclusion The medium-term bias remains bullish on EURAUD, with potential upside extension toward 1.7920, and possibly 1.8050 if macro momentum persists. The key support to defend lies at 1.7600 / 1.7550. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward 1.7400.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Bitcoin – Bulls Need Confirmation Before the Next Leg UpBitcoin first swept the all-time high, taking out liquidity before showing signs of exhaustion. This move triggered a sharp selloff that rebalanced the previous inefficiency left behind on the daily chart. The rejection from that premium area set the tone for a corrective phase, bringing price back into discount levels where buyers are now attempting to re-establish control. Consolidation Structure After the ATH sweep, Bitcoin formed a clear lower high structure. The subsequent drop not only filled an existing daily Fair Value Gap but also created another sweep within that same range. This type of double sweep formation often acts as a transition phase between bearish distribution and potential accumulation, provided the market finds enough volume support at lower levels. Bullish Scenario The most recent move filled the lower wick and swept local lows, which typically indicates a liquidity grab before a shift in sentiment. If bulls can close above the highlighted level with strong volume, this would suggest a market structure shift on higher timeframes and could trigger a push toward the 111,000–114,000 region, where the next daily inefficiency lies inside the previous sweep zone. Bearish Scenario Failure to reclaim and close above the key resistance level would suggest that the current move is only a retracement within the broader bearish leg. In that case, Bitcoin could revisit the 100,000–101,000 area to re-test the liquidity base created by the recent wick fill, potentially even running the lows one more time before forming a clearer accumulation range. Price Target and Expectations If bullish confirmation comes through, the initial target sits near 111,000, aligning with the lower boundary of the daily FVG. A clean breakout beyond 114,000 would further confirm strength and possibly open the way back toward the 118,000–120,000 region where prior inefficiencies remain unmitigated. Conclusion Bitcoin has completed a deep corrective sweep, but bulls have yet to prove dominance. A decisive close above the marked resistance with solid volume would confirm that buyers are regaining control and set the stage for continuation toward the higher daily imbalance. Until then, patience is key, as the current move remains a potential retracement rather than a confirmed reversal. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
41
GBPUSD Analysis (Bullish movement)The GBPUSD dropped sharply following the unemployment rate news, showing a strong bearish reaction in the short term. However, the pair is now approaching the 1.31181 level, which is expected to act as a potential support zone. This orderblock could serve as the base for a bullish correction or even the continuation of a larger uptrend, especially after the recent CHoCH (Change of Character) that signaled a potential shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. If price holds above this level and bullish order flow confirms, our next target will be the 1.33043 level, where significant liquidity and previous supply are located.
Long
by Mr_Liquidity1
1
GAL Head & Shoulders Breakdown Ahead? | Smart Money Targeting FAThe Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (PSX: GAL) chart is showing a clear Head and Shoulders reversal pattern at the top of a long-term ascending channel — hinting at potential bearish movement before any new bullish cycle begins. 📊 Technical Insights: 🧩 Head & Shoulders Pattern signaling trend exhaustion. 🟪 IMB Zone (Imbalance) yet to be fully mitigated — price likely to rebalance before continuation. 🔻 Fundamental Area around 400–420 PKR could act as a major demand zone for Smart Money accumulation. 🟢 Long-term channel still intact, suggesting possible rebound after discount pricing. 💡 Outlook: Expect short-term bearish pressure targeting the IMB and Fundamental Zone before the next potential bullish leg. Patience and confirmation at the lower levels will be key for investors and SMC traders.
PSX:GALShort
by AliyanFX
If Bitcoin's future isn't clear, zoom out.I used to have such a hard time with ICT's concepts until I simplified it and started zooming out... There are only two concepts to recognize: Does price push past a high or a low WITH imbalance? -If YES, trend will go into that direction AFTER the market makers get into position. What does that look like? Price will almost always revert to the Premium/Discount of the swing before continuing. It is in these technical areas that we look for signs of a reversal on a smaller timeframe (imbalance to the opposite side). -If NO, this is what we call a MANIPULATION if price goes above a high/low and starts creating imbalances immediately to the reverse on a smaller timeframe. Bitcoin on a 12 month chart really makes things EASY. -2021 ATH broke with a strong imbalance to the upside. -Exactly the same as it did in 2017, 2020 and now in 2024. -In 2018 as well as 2022, price returned to BELOW discount and into OTA before a reversal. If you want to see the future, look at the past... -FVG will be confirmed at the end of the year. 2026 will likely herald in lower prices and seek DISCOUNT prices. -Current discount is below $71,000. -OTA is below $58,000. (61.8%) -If previous historical swings foretell the future, price did not reverse until at least 78.6% -This means a reversal could bring us all the way down to BELOW $40,000. The fact that we will have a reversal is a foregone conclusion at this point. Next year is going to be extremely bearish for Bitcoin, but we are absolutely bulllish in the long run.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Zulu_Kilo
7
EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context (Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown) The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes. 💭 Sentiment Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached. 📈 Seasonality Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December. 📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed. RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum. The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets. Main Bias: Short continuation Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply) Target 1: 1.1400 Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool) Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715 Summary 📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data 📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November 📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible 🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3