Gold's at key crossroads this weekDear Goldies,
We’re still riding a mature bullish trend, but the recent exhaustion wick above 4K shows that buyers are losing some steam. Price is now pulling back into the fast EMA band, where structure remains intact — but momentum is clearly cooling. This isn’t shaping up to be a breakout week — it’s a decision week. Let’s let structure guide our bias.
On the other hand, Gold failed to close above last week’s low at 4,303.15, instead finishing just below it — signaling a bearish shift in momentum across the monthly, weekly, and 4H candles. Given this, we’ll likely lean on the 1H time frame until it aligns with the broader higher-time-frame trend.
🧭 Weekly Technical Posture
Trend: Strongly bullish (EMA 5 > 21 > 50 > 100 > 200)
RSI: Around 69 — still firm, but easing off the highs
Candle: Long upper wick signals resistance and fading momentum → price now retesting fast EMAs
Volatility Ahead: With ISM, ADP, JOLTS, and NFP on deck, expect high risk and high opportunity
Weekly Key Zones:
Supply Zones:
4105 – 4285: Post-breakout distribution zone. Strong resistance after a failed expansion last week. Heavy with previous order flow.
4385 – 4550: High-wick liquidity trap, prone to spikes and failed breakouts. Trade only if price accepts.
4660 – 4825: Exhaustion extreme zone. Relevant only with major macro shift in favor of gold.
Demand Zones:
3925 – 3740: Fast EMA support block, critical for bulls to maintain the trend. A break here could lead to deeper pullbacks.
3570 – 3400: Mid-structure shelf and EMA-50 support. Key for buyers to act quickly to prevent losing control.
3280 – 3125: Trend invalidation zone. A breakdown here signals a trend reversal.
Scenario:
Bullish Play: Defend 3925 – 3740, reclaim 3960 – 4040, and target 4105 – 4285. For continuation to 4385 – 4550, strong momentum and macro alignment are needed.
Bearish Play: A loss of 3960 – 4040 leads to 3925, then 3740, and possibly 3570 – 3400. Break below 3280 – 3125 invalidates bullish bias.
Daily Key Zones:
Supply Zones:
4070 – 4145: Bearish rejection block after the impulsive top. Key tactical resistance due to order block, fair value gap, and Fibonacci overlap.
4295 – 4385: Distribution zone above the spike, holding trapped breakout buyers and unmitigated sell-side pressure.
Demand Zones:
3915 – 3969: Impulse base and OB cluster. The first area where buyers are expected to step in, including 78.6% Fib and a visible bullish order block.
3830 – 3885: Higher-low shelf and EMA 50 support. If broken, deeper corrective structure may open, but the bullish macro bias remains intact above this zone.
3985 – 4025 (Pivot Zone): The active battlefield between bulls and bears. A clean break above opens room to higher supply, while failure to hold exposes lower demand zones.
Scenario:
Bullish Continuation: Buyers defend 3915 – 3969, reclaim 3985 – 4025, and target 4070 – 4145, with potential to reach 4295 – 4385.
Bearish Correction: Price rejects from 4070 – 4145 and fails to hold 3985 – 4025, triggering a move toward 3915, then 3830 – 3885.
Execution Guidance:
Best long setups: Rejection or reclaim from 3915 – 3969 into pivot regain.
Best short setups: Rejections from 4070 – 4145 or failed retest of pivot from below.
Triggers: Watch for BOS, CHoCH, RSI shifts, and strong wick patterns near zone edges.
Key Takeaway: Focus on price action within these key zones. Let price come to you and wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Disclaimer *** For educational Purposes only
