HEADER - This is the super-detailing for 1C draft with some up minor updates due to "wave reconciliation".
SUMMARY - This is what regressions show is coming, with high confidence and complete due diligence.
DETAILS - See previous posts for background. This is everything I've worked on for 7 years. This is the last draft for this move until December 20. I...
HEADER - This should be called SUPER LIQUIDITY CRISIS. This is overall route of 1C. There will not be a "1D". But I will make a super detailed 1-C later, hopefully before 9/10 if I have time.
SUMMARY - This is how gold is going to die in December-January window. So there's a move from 1725-ish all the way to 1125 in late December ending in late January. ...
HEADER - This is my answer for gold's curious price action since 1800.
SUMMARY - Short around 1780, preferably AFTER 8/22. Cover around 1550, preferably BEFORE 9/16.
DETAILS - This move is all technical So even though I forecast this with demographics thesis, I would make the same forecast based on regressions alone. GC late September puts is what I am...
HEADER - I am still on post 1B, link is below. This is just a number of thoughts before I can post 1C.
SUMMARY - Previously, in 1B, I stated that September should feature 1550. I now believe this number should be 1450. While a great deal still depends on price action before JACKSON HOLE FOMC, I want to get this page up so I do not need to explain myself if...
HEADER - This is super detailing for most likely route for spot gold price from 7/26 to 9/11, or next 7 weeks.
SUMMARY - From a due diligence point of view, this is my greatest work ever. By this, I mean next 1200 days of price action, from now to August 2025. You can view long term chart in notes in draft 1A, link below. This is focused specifically on all...
HEADER - It's hard to see gold getting out of this one.
SUMMARY - Highest inflation in 40 years and gold keeps getting destroyed. Fundamentals? Really?
DETAILS - Today is 7/12, Wednesday 7/13 is CPI and also full moon, 7/14 is PPI. FOMC is 7/27. All combined regressions say this week closes (which is end of day 7/15 or 66 hours out) at 1580-1620. Links...
HEADER - Still formulating.
SUMMARY - NFP beat. Another .75% for July 27 hike. So once we hit 1655-65 what happens? The next legit floor is 1530 and then 1480.
DETAILS - Next 3 weeks we hit 1530, maybe even 2 weeks. That's all for now.
HEADER - Right now I have 7/13 1740 puts and 7/20 1750 calls. This is would be implied outcome if we tag 1650-1665 on 7/12.
SUMMARY - The first fundamental should be liquidity, so don't fight Fed.
DETAILS - If it does take this path, Aug-Sep short will make up for it. More on this if we break under 1675 meaningfully.
HEADER - I can't disprove the move to 1650-1665 by Tuesday 7/12, so I am simultaneously long and short with a straddle.
SUMMARY - I own 7/13 1740 puts AND 7/20 1750 calls with costs split 60/40 short because of momentum.
DETAILS - Draft 6 long is linked below.
HEADER - It's getting really hard to keep a long term bullish view. This is what NEEDS TO HAPPEN in order to hold that view.
SUMMARY - In draft 5 and 5B, I had the swing as 1770 to 1920. Since we dropped 40 under the low, we need 40 over the high - so 1960 - by 9/20-ish to "hold the curves", especially all the really long ones.
DETAILS - If this plays, it...
HEADER - Detailing until October.
SUMMARY - Weakness prior to 7/8 NFP can extend to 7/27 FOMC. Should be bought circa 1770 with 1925 target in September.
DETAILS - Drafts 1-4 are linked below. The pattern of price action to December and beyond has not changed at all.
HEADER - Data mining eliminated "24" and eliminated most blind spots for 23. This is draft 4.
SUMMARY - After checking all my boxes, this is the move. All that is left is getting to December. From here on out, I will discuss the core fundamentals of my gold price bull market thesis and all the the technicals involve from price regressions point of view on...
HEADER - A lot needs to happen here, but this is shape of curve for this story
SUMMARY - Will unemployment rise scare the FED to reverse?
DETAILS - I have a lot to share but no time to share it. I have some conviction in this move. July 8th is NFP. July 27th is FOMC. I see 2240 by 9/26/22. Will share more if I have time. All that said, I've made my 10%...
HEADER - This is an updated look at price action through October.
SUMMARY - In notes of DRAFT 2, I added that the 6/12 spike was weak and is very suggestive of a deeper move down in July. That said, I think 1740 area should hold for a second retest due October.
DETAILS - See DRAFT 1 & 2 for details. Links are below. We are following blue path now, orange...
HEADER - This is a supplement. This is used to confirm that DRAFT 1 makes sense with all corresponding bollinger bands and their extensions incorporating some important trend lines.
SUMMARY - Draft 1 was 3 sets of 3x regression layers. It was made using 9D, 3D, 1D, 12H, and 8H bars. That is to say that it focuses on longer (naturally more crucial trends). This...
HEADER - Odds of August/September rally has dropped dramatically in last week. This is now the long term favorite.
SUMMARY - This means that gold bull market thesis will be in doubt until November at the earliest. The setup for the rally would not be ready until December this year. Furthermore, if gold does not take this December's route up (and it maybe as...