THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in...
Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP It's US jobs week. Which gives us at least three trading opportunities, scattered out nicely over the whole week. First is the JOLTs Job Openings report. Second is the ADP Employment Change report. Finally, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Let's look at what happened last month: Nonfarm payrolls increased by...
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB...
The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in...
08/03/24 The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive...
MACRO MONDAY 11 Continued Jobless Claims ECONOMICS:USCJC Continued Jobless Claims are the continued unemployment benefits claimed by workers who made their first “Initial claim” and remained unemployed in the weeks that followed. In other words, Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst...
KOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. ...
This analysis overlays US Recessions over CBOE:SPX on the top pane. Bottom pane is a technique shared by famous trader , Larry William - recently presented at a NAAIM Conference. The technique looks at US job market as % of population. You can find more on Sentimentrader. Larger declines in stock market are usually accompanied by a recession. There is clearly...
The Unemployment Rate looks like it's getting ready to spike higher as it Double Bottoms at the 0.786 and cracks above the 21SMA. If this plays out, it will likely spike to the highs or even make a new higher high. During all of this, I expect the macroeconomic data charts below to also play out: Consumer Credit Balances: The Mortgage ETF: US Interest...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 10/11 Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back (per Walmart's CEO)...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased last week. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball...
Looking at Job Openings data, bear markets end when RSI is below 30, we've just now crossed below 50, we have a long way to go. I think Job Openings need to fall to roughly 1/3 of the current level to 3mil or so down from 9mil, which would still be quite a bit higher than previous bear market bottoms. Equity levels will most likely follow right along.
This is Job openings minus continuing jobless claims. It makes the trends clear as day. There's another crash coming this year. There are only 1.7M job seekers and 10.8M open jobs. They will not get filled. They will close and the market will crash.
In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the...
See how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least....
were down a little more than .5% after this jobs report, and im looking at it as a non event mostly. its not the feds job to make wages go up or unemployment down. they are a lender and a monetary policy monitor/executive. i dont believe were still flying high the way we have been, were overdue for a pullback, but im still bullish treating this resistance as...
2016-2017 NFP Average = 168k (Trump Era) 2017-2018 NFP Average = 198k 2018-2019 NFP Average = 164k 2019-2020 NFP Average = -796k (COVID-19) 2020-2021 NFP Average = 474k (Biden Era) 2021-2022 NFP Average = 410k There was a time when 261k would have been outstanding, but following on from the big job reset in 2019/2020 the average was above 400k.
2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for...
The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is...