NAUKRI: The Bullish Case for a Technical Reversal.The current chart pattern is a "potential" setup; a confirmed double-bottom has not yet triggered—monitor the breakout level for official entry. Or scale in as appropriate.
The Bullish Case for NAUKRI:
While we watch the technical trigger, the fundamental and structural drivers behind Info Edge (NAUKRI) remain the gold standard in the Indian internet ecosystem.
Here is why the bulls are lining up:
Unrivalled Market Dominance: NAUKRI remains the undisputed leader in the Indian recruitment space.
In a digital-first economy, their brand moat is arguably the widest in the sector.
When the hiring cycle turns, Info Edge is the first to capture that alpha.
Operational Leverage: The company’s ability to scale with minimal incremental cost is a classic bullish driver.
As the economy expands, the leverage inherent in their platform model means revenue growth flows directly to the bottom line.
The "Flight to Quality" Trade: In uncertain market environments, investors naturally gravitate toward "blue-chip" internet stocks.
NAUKRI is the primary proxy for the Indian internet growth story, and institutional accumulation tends to happen exactly at these levels of structural support.
The Technical Setup:
We are looking at a classic "spring" formation. The price action is showing signs of absorption—the sellers are exhausted, and the bid is holding firm. If the volume confirms a breakout above the neckline, the path of least resistance is significantly higher.
The Takeaway:
I am treating this as a high-conviction setup.
While waiting for the technical trigger to pull the buy would be sensible, the underlying strength of the company gives me all the confidence I need to keep this in my watchlist.
What do you see? Are you tracking the breakout level, or are you already building a position?
#NAUKRI #InfoEdge #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #GrowthInvesting #Bullish #TradingView
JOBS
$USUR - U.S Unemployment Rate (June/2026)ECONOMICS:USUR
June/2026
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.3% in May and below expectations, as many people left the workforce.
The number of unemployed fell by 213,000 to 7.09 million, while total employment declined by 507,000 to 162.26 million.
The labor force contracted by 720,000 to 169.36 million, with the participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021.
The employment rate also dipped to an over four-year low of 59.0%.
The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.9% from 8.1%.
$USNFP - U.S Non-Farm Payrolls (June/2026)ECONOMICS:USNFP
June/2026
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The U.S economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, the weakest gain in four months and far below expectations of 110,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as the labor force participation rate dropped sharply to 61.5%, its lowest since early 2021, while annual wage growth accelerated slightly to 3.5%.
Why US data matters for USD/JPY & Nikkei this weekUSD/JPY has climbed above 162 as the gap between US and Japanese interest rates continues to favour the US dollar.
The next major news event is US economic data. Upcoming jobs data will shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.
Stronger-than-expected data could increase expectations for Fed rate hike, push US yields even higher, supporting further gains in USD/JPY and increasing the chances of intervention from Japanese authorities. The US-Japan 2-year yield gap is now approaching 280 basis points, wider than when Japan last intervened in the currency market.
Japanese equities are also benefiting from the weaker yen. The Nikkei remains near record highs as exporters and AI-related stocks continue to perform well, meaning any shift in the US dollar could also influence Japan's stock market.
Our prime spreads on USDJPY are from 1 point and 500x leverage, and JPN225 spreads from 5 points.
Gold Bulls Just Got Hit With a Jobs ReportGold fell below $4,350 per ounce on Friday, reaching its lowest level of 2026 and putting the metal on track for a weekly decline of nearly 4%.
The move came after a stronger than expected US jobs report raised fresh concerns around inflation and interest rates. The May nonfarm payroll report showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs, well above the forecast of 85,000.
The data has changed market expectations for the Federal Reserve. Markets are now considering the possibility of a quarter point rate increase by the end of the year.
Gold has now fallen around 23% from its peak. Silver has seen an even sharper correction, almost halving from its high above $121.
The May nonfarm payroll report revealed the US economy added 172,000 jobs, significantly above the forecasted 85,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
What Traders Are Watching Next? Other than the start of the FIFA World Cup, Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair on June 16 and 17.
$GBUR - U.K Unemployment RateECONOMICS:GBUR
March2026
source: Office for National Statistics
- The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in the three months to March 2026, above expectations and February’s 4.9%.
The reading marked the first set of figures for the opening month of the US–Iran war, which added pressure to business costs and hiring conditions.
Despite the higher rate, the number of unemployed people fell by 77,000 to 1.806 million, mainly driven by declines among those unemployed for up to six months and those out of work for between six and 12 months.
Compared with the same period last year, however, unemployment increased by 192,000, with all unemployment durations rising.
Meanwhile, total employment increased by 148,000 to 34.392 million, topping expectations of a 107,000 rise, and was up 416,000 on the year, supported by gains in both full-time and part-time work among employees and the self-employed.
The number of people holding second jobs declined in the latest quarter to 1.275 million, accounting for 3.7% of all employed individuals.
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Quick analysis for NFP should there be an aggressive move. We have added the hot spots and the RBs to the chart, the potential range we would like price to play in and the Red box targets below.
Price is a little stretched with the 1H showing we have room to go lower, however, the 4H is suggesting this could be a temporary move before a RIP, if we do go lower. Capturing the move, unless you’re already in the right direction is going to be difficult, as the potential spike can require huge SL’s, which is what the market is relying on these days.
The levels above 4655-60 are important, a breach above is needed to then target higher and break above the 4800 level which is where the market will be likely to close, if this happens.
Below, we have the key level of 4680, which if attacked and breached can bring us all the way down into the 4630s, which is where we want to see the potential for a RIP.
RED BOX TARGETS:
BREAK ABOVE 4735 for 4740, 4754, 4758, 4765 and 4773 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4706 for 4695, 4675, 4660, 4645 and 4639 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Job Growth Takes Off but Traders Stay Put. What’s Happening?Are these jobs in the room with us right now?
📊 A Blockbuster Headline
The delayed January jobs report arrived Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP showed 130,000 new hires , more than double the 55,000 estimate. On paper, that looked like a strong start to the year.
Wall Street’s reaction, though, was far from a celebration.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI slipped 0.1%, or about 67 points. The S&P 500 SP:SPX finished flat, while the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dipped 0.2%. Traders glanced at the headline, then at the fine print, and decided no buying would be done that day.
🔍 The Fine Print That Changed the Mood
Investors sometimes tend to read beyond the headline, and this report was one of those times. Annual revisions from April 2024 to March 2025 removed 862,000 jobs previously counted as real.
That is the largest revision since 2009.
Add to that another twist: November and December job growth was revised lower by a combined 17,000 jobs, effectively turning what looked like modest gains into slight contraction.
The past few months just got rewritten by nearly one million jobs. Jobs that had sparked buying, rallies, and record highs were built on... fake news?
🧮 The Math Behind the Skepticism
On the surface, 130,000 new hires sounds impressive. Dig deeper, and the composition tells a more nuanced story.
Roughly 82,000 of those jobs came from healthcare, and about 50,000 of that total was in ambulatory healthcare services.
Concentrated growth in one sector often signals structural hiring trends rather than broad economic acceleration. If real. But we all know how busy January is when it comes to hiring.
Meanwhile, employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, the highest level for the month since the 2009 recession and a 118% increase from a year earlier.
One dataset suggests momentum. Another signals strain. Traders, faced with conflicting signals, chose caution.
🏦 Credibility and the Fed Factor
Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have already suggested that labor market data may face more revisions in the near future.
If payroll gains can be revised lower by hundreds of thousands over the course of a year, investors question the credibility of the current strength.
📉 Why Stocks Didn’t Celebrate
Let’s assume that the job number is actually real. Normally, strong job growth sparks optimism about consumer spending and corporate earnings.
A hotter labor market can also complicate rate-cut expectations. Strong hiring may delay monetary easing, which equity markets have come to anticipate.
At the same time, large revisions and rising layoff announcements paint a softer picture beneath the surface. The result is a stalemate. Good news feels fragile.
🎢 A Market Caught Between Signals
Financial markets thrive on clarity. The January report offered energy but limited conviction.
Traders are weighing three key questions:
Is hiring genuinely accelerating?
Are revisions signaling deeper weakness?
How will the Federal Reserve interpret this mix?
Until those answers sharpen, market participants may continue to hold their positions rather than extend them. Next up on the economic calendar — inflation data coming Friday.
Off to you : Are you holding, adding, or getting rid of your stock? Are these numbers as real as your unrealized YTD gains? Share your views in the comments!
$USNFP - U.S Non-Farm Payrolls (January/2026)ECONOMICS:USNFP 130K
January/2026
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 130K in January and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, signaling a stable labor market at the start of the year.
Hiring beat forecasts and the drop in joblessness pointed to resilient labor demand. Annual revisions showed that job gains averaged just 15K per month last year, down sharply from the initially reported pace of 49K.
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Thursday Jan 29, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Thursday Jan 29, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
🏦 Fed Head Fake Absorbed
Markets shake off hawkish Powell comments as dip buyers step in late
🚗 Tesla Earnings Shock
TSLA jumps after-hours on Model 2 timing and European FSD licensing headlines
🧠 AI Capex Split Reaction
META slides on higher spending plans while suppliers stay in focus NVDA ANET
⚛️ AI Energy Undercurrent
Uranium names firm as power constraints resurface CCJ OKLO VST
📊 Macro Sensitivity Day
Labor and trade data test whether post-Fed stabilization holds
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Thursday Jan 29 ET
8:30 AM
- Initial Jobless Claims Jan 24: 205K
- U.S. Trade Deficit Nov delayed: -42.9B
- U.S. Productivity Q3 revised: 4.9%
10:00 AM
- Wholesale Inventories Nov delayed: 0.2%
- Factory Orders Nov delayed: 1.3%
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Fed #Earnings #TSLA #META #AI #Energy #Macro #Markets #Stocks #Options
$USNFP - Non-Farm Payrolls (November/2025)ECONOMICS:USNFP
November/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S job growth totaled 64K in November, compared with a 105K loss in October and market expectations of a 50K increase.
Employment rose in health care and construction, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, more than expected.
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Jobs Day: The October Employment Report headlines Friday, with payrolls expected at -60,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% — signaling labor market cooling.
📉 Policy implications: A weak print would reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts in early 2026, while upside surprises could stall the dovish momentum.
💬 Fed watch: Morning remarks from Williams and Jefferson set the tone before the data drop; Miran rounds out the week with a late-day speech.
⚠️ Shutdown delays: The Employment Report and related labor metrics are at risk of delay pending government data releases, adding uncertainty to Friday’s open.
📊 Sentiment & credit check: U-Mich Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit round out the macro picture.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
⏰ 3:00 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech
⏰ 7:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) speech
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Oct) — subject to delay
• Nonfarm Payrolls: -60,000
• Unemployment Rate: 4.5%
• Hourly Wages (MoM): 0.3%
⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Nov) | 53.0 expected
⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Sept) | $10.0B expected
⏰ 3:00 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⚠️ Note:
The Employment Report, Unemployment Rate, and Wage Data are flagged at risk of delay due to the government shutdown. All other releases are expected on time. Market volatility will hinge on whether the data prints or is postponed.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #JobsReport #NFP #Fed #Jefferson #Williams #inflation #yields #macro #shutdown
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Q3 closeout: Last trading day of September = quarter-end rebalancing flows in equities and bonds.
💵 Fed watch: Multiple Fed speakers across the day keep policy tone in focus.
💻 Mega-cap drift: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA leadership remains sensitive to yields + growth data.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul, 20-city)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep, Conf. Board)
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 6:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair)
• 9:00 AM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed)
• 1:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)
• 3:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed, TV appearance)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #JOLTS #ConsumerConfidence #CaseShiller #PMI #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
Critical jobs data you need to watch this week Fresh labor market data will likely be the focus this week, with payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth all carrying weight for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stronger-than-expected job reports could revive dollar demand, while weaker figures may keep pressure on the greenback as markets price in further Fed easing.
Nonfarm payrolls for September are projected at 39K, a modest improvement from August’s 22K, but still far below the levels seen through most of 2023 and earlier years (chart, top left).
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% (chart, top right).
Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-on-month, matching August’s gain. That would keep annual wage growth steady, reflecting sticky wage pressures even as job creation softens.
The JOLTS job openings series remains elevated at 7.3 million (chart, bottom left), but still well below the peaks of 2022. This suggests firms are slower to post new jobs, but demand has not collapsed entirely.
What to trade if you can't trust jobs data? U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reportedly in response to jobs figures he disagreed with.
This raises concerns about the integrity of government-reported economic data, especially ahead of the next key Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on September 5.
This upcoming report also includes the BLS’s annual revision, adjusting past job growth figures from April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs “estimate a downward revision on the order of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs—or a reduction of 45,000 to 80,000 jobs per month over the April 2024 to March 2025 period.”
Given macro uncertainty and signs of distrust in U.S. economic data, the bid for gold may persist.
Gold has rebounded sharply in recent sessions, breaking a short-term downtrend and climbing back above the 3,360 level. Price has now retraced more than 50.0% of the July 24–31 selloff. The pair may be Short-term bullish, if price holds above 3,310.
Jobs vs politics: GBPUSD caught in crossfire Two major stories are developing on either side of the Atlantic.
ADP reported a 33 k fall in June private payrolls (consensus +95 k). It is the third straight miss and sets the tone for Thursday’s early Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, brought forward because of the 4 July holiday.
In the UK, speculation is growing around the position of Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in Parliament. Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to confirm whether she would remain in the role, sparking questions over the government’s fiscal direction.
The political uncertainty helped accelerate the sell-off in GBPUSD, which has fallen sharply from recent highs near 1.38. The latest candles show a long lower wick around 1.3600, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend the area. If this support fails to hold, the next downside target lies near 1.3485–1.3500, which acted as a base for the late-June rally.
Just got the May NFPs... Let's have a lookWe just received the May NFPs, which, overall, are not bad. Let's dig in.
TVC:DXY
TVC:DJI
FX_IDC:USDJPY
FX_IDC:USDCAD TVC:GOLD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
D
Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
G
US FEDERAL WORKERS and COMING DECLINEThe chart Posted is that of Government worker Has PEAKED ! As you can see under Elliot Wave We have reached the point That Governments thru out the United States has FIVE LEGS up ! and to which the jobs created over the last fours has been where most jobs have been. It is my view that this has come to an end ! and that we are going to see a true sea change . Timing is for a decline to start NOW !This should also slow down the rate of Debt and inflationary forces ! . I stand by my work and the data the US Unemployment levels have bottomed and a upturn that started last year will see it increase to a level in the mid 5 to 5.5 % .and that the recession started last year mid summer early spring . If cycles based on the data we should see the peak in unemployment in Oct 2026 and the low in the Liquidity cycle and recession low . Best of trades WAVETIMER
US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY
ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month.
Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work.
When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month .
Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market .
For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession.
Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24.
2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.)
After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite.
Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart.
As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year.
Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness.
Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
Full Time Employment All Time HighsCongratulations to Trump supporters! you got what you deserve.
Americans yesterday voted for Trump because he convinced them that the "economy "feels" bad."
Nothing could be further than the truth. Never in the history of America have more people been employed. That's just a fact.
In the next four years, Americans will experience what a real "bad economy" feels like.
Don't shoot the messenger kids! I can only tell you what the charts say.
Nightly $SPY Prediction for 10.31.2024🔮
⏰7:30am
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
⏰8:30am
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Employment Cost Index q/q
Unemployment Claims
Personal Income m/m
Personal Spending m/m
⏰9:45am
Chicago PMI
⏰10:30am
Natural Gas Storage
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing






















