Indotermes

Indotermes

US Dollar Index is plunging toward the highs during covid. These recent drop features 2 of the biggest daily red candles in a while, with the last piercing through a 10-month support line, ichimoku cloud, gaussian channel and EMA ribbon. RSI also broke nearly 2 years of support. Momentum to downside is very strong. This is in line with Q4 generally bringing a...

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This chart suggests that the coming recession will be anywhere from Q4 next year to Q4 2024 which is much later than what the 10 minus 2 year chart could be saying. There's also a possibility that the recent inversion is a false signal but unlike the 1998 fakeout, it went deeper and is much more likely a legitimate signal.

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Massive daily green candle broke out of 3-month pennant and gaussian channel after bouncing off multiple moving averages, most importantly the 200 week SMA. The move also has the highest volume since March. Long RSI trend has been broken too. Back in July, I called for a bottom and an accumulation phase for copper (See Below). It played out. Price needs to take...

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Double Inverted Head & Shoulders Patterns on top of bullish divergence followed by hidden bullish divergence(continuation of recent trend) and bouncing off important support levels and golden pocket says SPX is going to new ATH.

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US Dollar has broken out of a bearish rising wedge after a long negative divergence. Competition against the dollar is also finally ramping up and it doesn't seem like the dixie has priced that in yet. It then makes sense that the target for the wedge goes below a 7 month trend line.

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This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will...

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2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for...

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This is not just FINANCIAL ADVICE, but LIFE ADVICE. You've been WARNED.

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Lumber is a leading indicator for the housing market which is a leading indicator for the economy. In fact, as you can see on the chart, they are usually TOO leading. Housing Index needs lumber to confirm down trend via at least one failed retest of its ATH before it can establish its own top. After housing peaks, It takes a while before the stock market peaks,...

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I've already posted a chart on the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin (link below). This is a more detailed look at it. At first glance, the previous cycle looks different from the current cycle except for some very basic framework, but upon closer examination, they are in fact essentially the same even at the specific parts. It's intriguing enough that it's hard to be a...

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Employment level is not yet overheated which is bullish for risk-on assets. A repeat of the 1981-1982 recession a possibility but trading and investing has always been about probabilities, not possibilities. 6-17% increase in employment from now is far more likely. One is allowed to be a bear, but a bear right now is far more of a gambler than a bull is.

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Classic reversal signals are firing for oil but it likely won't reach all-time highs anytime soon, as there is enough evidence that inflation has peaked.

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Market conditions are the opposite of the dot com bubble. Nobody wants to go down the socioeconomic ladder. Tech is a necessity, even during economic uncertainties, and the charts are illustrating that.

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People keep comparing this supposedly imminent further crash to the great financial crisis. The VIX disagrees. According to it, we are in territory comparable to 2012. Not my opinion. Just a messenger. The coming bull run probably won't last as long as the 2010s though, because of other factors outside the volatility index.

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DXY parabolic rise has been broken. This kind of rise once exhausted usually results in a 7-12% crash for the DXY. Sometimes it goes almost straight to the 100 weekly SMA for a big bounce, or will trade sideways, still at elevated levels but the dumps are as big as the pumps, eventually reaching below the said MA. Retests and rejections at key MAs shown here and...

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According to this chart, true recession will come next year, not this year. Before the big dump is a big pump.

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VIX has disrespected 3 important support levels with a bearish weekly candle. This suggests multi-month accumulation which means a better outlook for stocks and crypto.

Indotermes

The S&P 500 seems to be behaving as it did during the dot com bubble and the great recession, especially with all the news bombarding us, but some of the factors and context necessary for a recession, at least in my opinion, are either not yet in play, or won't be for a long time(no recession or recession mild and over).