Looking at a weekly chart it seems that we are in distribution that has started in 2015. We now see volume off the tops of the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). There are Signs of Weakness (SoW) and change of character in the background. I break below the yearly pivot point which should be tested this week could result in significant declines.
The Top 40 has previously found support at the yearly pivot point. After a rally, there has been a rejection of the 200Day MA. Volume is decreasing on rallies and increasing on declines indicating the selling pressure. It does not seem that the 200Day MA will hold again.
The Top 40 is seeing some buying at the yearly pivot point. The volume has increased and it looks as like there will be a rally but probably within the trading range defined by the yearly pivot point and recent highs.
Today we have seen a high volume bar with a small range indicating effort without response. Some demand has entered the market and a rally is possibly on the cards this week.
After a backup to the TR we see some supply volume pushing the price down. There is a negative divergence on the RSI. We have been waiting for the breakdown (See posts below) which finally seems to have started.
Following on from last weeks post the market has formed a top and broke out of the short distribution range formed at the highs. Due to the short TR we need to be conservative with the targets.
Last week there was some high volume (effort) but with no progress in price (response). This indicates that some selling is taking place. After breaking the channel there has been a low volume pullback. Now after a retest, there is some volume and now I am expecting a decline in the next week.
The Top40 has had a great run since the start of the year. On the way up there were two occasions when institutional supply entered the market (seen by the high volume) but was unable to stop the advance. Now the market has reached the highs were previous institutional supply occurred. However, the volume has declined in the leadup to the elections. Trading volume...
Considering the number of stocks above the 50 and 200 daily MA we have seen a divergence with price. Price is making new highs but the number of stock above the MAs are decreasing. This indicates some weakness developing in the market and potentially and need to watch for reversal at resistance.
On the daily timeframe (TF) following the Wyckoff logic, there was a change of character that formed a Trading Range (TR) with the Selling Climax (SC) and Automatic Rally (AR). This is at the bottom of a larger TR on the weekly TF (See post below). After a Secondary Test (ST) of the lows, the price is testing the top of the TR again. This is also the 2019 Yearly...
After a Change of Character (CoC) and major Sign of Weakness (SoW) the JSE Top 40 has been seen the start of a smaller trading range (TR). Price is now approaching the top of the TR (Round number 49000) with confluence with the 200 Day SMA and the 2019 Yearly Pivot Point. The Rally is seen on lower volume than the decline and negative divergence with the RSI....
Reconsidering the evaluation of the trading range (TR) it could be evaluated as an inclining TR. The initial part of the trading range had some signs of accumulation but after an up thrust (UT) a strong distribution character has emerged. Before the end of 2018 price had a change of character (CoC) with signs of weakness (SoW) on increasing volume. Now the Top 40...
The range in the JSE Top40 index that started in April 2015 seems to be a distribution range. Following the Wyckoff logic, we could have seen an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and test at the highs at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018. Now we see an increase in the spread to the downside of 8 to 11 to 12 to 19% indicating a bearish Change of Character...
The JSE Top 40 has been ranging but finding some support at the breakout level of the previous trading range. Looking at the comparison of the three main sectors in the JSE since April we can evaluate recent relative strength. The Resources sector has been strong and even looking at resent lows on 12 September it has remained the strongest of the sectors....
