This post critically analyses how BTC has behaved after a cycle top with respect to the 200D SMA and 600D SMA, comparing similar periods to 2013-15 and 2017-18 (shown using blue boxes) to the current price behaviour (if indeed BTC has made it’s cycle top this bull run already).
PRICE CHART
The 200D SMA (shown in Aqua or light blue) and 600D SMA (shown in Teal or...
Hi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion, and I'm not saying that this is going to happen.
These are the data from the chart:
-- Cycle 1 --
High: $31.91
Low: $1.99
Fib Retracement Level for the Peak: 32 at $959.43
Actual Peak: $1,242
Margin: 29.45%
Duration: 903 days
-- Cycle 2 --
High: $1,242
Low:...
Another way I like to look at BTC's Cycles as measured by the halving's is using zones outlined by historically relevant Moving Average (MAs).
Green zones represent historically good accumulation zones and Red zones historically good selling zones (not financial advice, any indicator should be used with confluence with other TA).
A good way to look at BTC's intra cycle swings within BTC's Macro Bull / Bear / Re-Accumulation zones is to look at BTC using Heikin Ashi Candles on the Weekly Time Frames (W-TF).
This show clearly we have been in a down trend since November 2021.
A lot of CT (Crypto Twitter) is bearish long term atm.
I have added the 100 Weekly SMA (Orange Line) and the 200...
A Bit of a fun indicator I put together for some dubious speculation; but historically showing we are closing in on intra-cycle over bought / sold territory currently around 35K ....
If we fail the according to this indicator we might be looking at macro lows towards the low 20K region....
If we count this cycle as a double peak cycle and we have touched our top on the BLUE line so far this run, then the orange line is our target for the second peak touch (Similar to the GREEN and RED lines in the 2013 Bull Run cycle as measured by BTC Halving).
CYCLE ANALYSIS: Most people in the Crypto Market are very fearful at present.
While I am still bullish long-term for BTC at this point that we have not reached our top for this 'Bull Run' segment of the current cycle for BTC (as measured by BTC halving's), I wanted to look at what the most bearish scenario I think is possible / worst case conditions most market...
And interesting chart showing a possibility of "lengthening cycles" using Fibonacci.
If you look from the first line, a "bottom," we can see the next line is a "top." They then alternate, quite well, between "bottom," then "top."
This tells us that the price at the moment, of 33K, is approximately "the bottom" for this cycle. So it is likely we will see mostly...
![BTCUSD: BTC - Heikin Ashi Candles W-TF [A Closer Look]](https://s3.tradingview.com/e/e0RM11b5_mid.png "BTC - Heikin Ashi Candles W-TF [A Closer Look]")
![BTCUSD: BTC - Historic Over Bought / Sold MAs [A Closer Look]](https://s3.tradingview.com/m/MJhNASRX_mid.png "BTC - Historic Over Bought / Sold MAs [A Closer Look]")
![BTCUSD: BTC Market Cycles - Worst Case Possibility [Close Up]](https://s3.tradingview.com/u/UTt4fY1t_mid.png "BTC Market Cycles - Worst Case Possibility [Close Up]")
