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a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
some continuation followed by consolidative move in semissemiconductors are on an upward trajectory,and a sell the news event has marked new highs in 3x leveraged semiconductor bull etf SOXL. as long as we remain in this uptrend the market will have no trouble with a third drive to the upside, but during which i would be looking for signs of exhaustion, as some kind of daily topwick could form around rhe $20 area. if we get movement above this supply zone the chart will look more bullish, but closing the gap and pivoting to an hourly equillibrium in an overbought area rsi. that being said a higher supply could take a day or two so as long as sundays numbers are positive or negligible loss nq1! semiconductors should find a local extreme to the highs early or mid next week and consolidate. upper horizontals are stiff resistance, and lower horizontals are areas to be explored for short candidacy.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
nasdaq on the verge of breaking outthe nasdaq 100 is showing that it can reach for the highs, and is on the verge of breaking out above major resistance to levels not seen since early june. continuation seems likely, and i have critical levels of support and resistance marked out as horizontal lines where it may pause, or bounce. sss is green and qqe is long. if we get over one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal above, and if we break below one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal below.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
Bitcoin Cash Huge Potential on 10X (1600%+)Here is Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD), this is the same chart we shared a few weeks back. We are hitting the gas on this one as we see potential for massive growth. After the retrace that ended 13-July (Full moon), BCHUSD is now ready to grow. We are active with 10X of leverage. Disclaimer: Not for beginner, for experienced traders only. Leveraged trading is high risk and can result in liquidation. This is not financial advice. We are wishing huge profits and good luck. Namaste.
BITMEX:BCHUSD.PLong
by MasterAnanda
9
vix coming to critical level of supportweve only seen this low in uvxy 3 times, they were all this year, and they all happened with broader markets in a downtrend. all im seeing right now is buys on uvxy, and if the selloff continues with multiple sectors like xlf, xlv, spy, qqq, iwm, and especially soxl hitting new lows of the day at the same time its almost a guarantee that vix pops once again at this level on the daily targeting the upper horizontal (high 13s/low 14s), and if the bounce continues with sector rotation occuring and consolidation forming in major indices this etf is headed for the lower horizontal (high 8s/low 9s).
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns
volatility coiling up for a spikeSVXY has printed an outside down day and this usually marks the top in inverse vix. that means vix is in for a spike as weve seen begin today. normally indices make headway when vix is at the lows, but vix has been popping with indices failing resistance pointing toward a false breakout in broader markets. if we fly higher in UVXY breaking fridays high id imagine were in for mid 13s, and if we close beneath that first lower horizontal i think were in for mid 12s.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns
false break or trend changethe reversal pattern is in if we close above the key levels marked out. we have tested this sentiment a few times in the past month, but each time its proven resistive. if that pattern turns green and we close in a bullish pattern breaking out of this wedge to the upside daily id imagine were in for the upper horizontals, and if we stay with sss and qqe in the red treating this area as resistive id imagine it gets shorted back down to the lower horizontals. bulls really want to hold that orange line (high volume area), and bears want to move below it.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
found double bottom, no break out yetweve strongly supported a level twice but each time we were equally rejected as previous lows tested as resistance, slightly trending lower woth green days in red territory. themost likely scenario is if we retest recent highs as resistance, and make a lower high compared to a tightwning range over the past week or more. 25.82 is a lever to watch for a bull break targeting 26.25 - 25.05 is a level to watch for a bear break looking toward 24.54 sss and qqe are now singaling green
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
looks like bears have returned to the nasdaqSQQQ TRAMA and VWMA have turned up, and are following the price higher. stiff resistance in the nasdaq along the downtrend line has proved a supply area in the index is sapping momentum out of the bounce. the last time this happened we had a return to the bear market, and SQQQ saw gains of around 8%. id like to see SQQQ RSI get overbought before i count it out, and inversely id like to see TQQQ oversold before im long the nasdaq. if we close the day as a shooting star, bear hammer or bear doji in TQQQ, and SQQQ forms a bull hammer, inverted hammer or bull doji i will be long SQQQ daily. holding above $53.29 id aim for just under $56, and breaking above that id target the mid-upper $65 range.
NASDAQ:SQQQLong
by cerealpatterns
Cardano's Easy 20%, Fast 40% + Sure 70% (10X Lev Trade Reminder)Cardano is moving ahead and right now we need only focus on the targets since we took care of the chart signals a few weeks ago. We've been bullish; Now it grows. Patience is key. Enjoy the results. Cardano 10X Lev. These type of chart setups are not seen very often... These opportunities are hard to find... We are active with 10X and high potential rewards = high risk. The first target is set around $0.5750 for 20% potential profits. Up to 200% with 10X lev. The second target is set around $0.6850 for 43% or 430% total. Finally, the 70/700% target is the mid-term price jump. There can be more but we aim low, secure our trades and always secure profits on the way up. This is not financial advice. Leveraged trading is ultra-high risk and for experts only. Please do your own research before trading. Always make sure to have a plan in place. Wishing you great wealth and success. Wishing you a strong recovery. Wishing you peace! Namaste.
BITMEX:ADAUSD.PLong
by MasterAnanda
2
semiconductors climbing out of the holeright now major indices and the nasdaq especially is banking on semis carrying a significant bounce out of the giant hole they have dug for themselves and us all. it follows that if we can hold 15.80s breaking 16.80s and continue with TRAMA staying over VWMA with both averages rising together that we should hae the go ahead to close the gap around 18.60s (strange that the decimal and integer are inverted 🤔 for either target). should ve a mega green day if we just manage to keep oscillators headed toward overbought with the price making higher lows.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
4
Bitcoin Leveraged Longs At Historic RecordsThis chart of BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS represents the total number of Bitcoin held in margin positions on the exchange Bitfinex. This is only the data for one exchange but I make the assumption that as a data point it represents the state of the trading ecosystem as a whole. What this data shows is that despite the drop in price (or rather because of it) traders have been apeing into the dip with larger amounts of leverage than ever seen before. This could mean one of two things: Traders using high amounts of leverage will get rewarded for taking on high risk if the price rebounds Traders using high amounts of leverage will be liquidated and create an even more rapid cascade of price decline if the price continues to fall Time will tell... do these traders taking on excessive risk get to win? Another question: if so many people are buying to DCA and/or speculate... why is price falling?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS
by norok
6
i wouldnt try to long vix right now even if were in a bear mark volatility is doing something interesting. after a failed breakout, it has consolidated and found weekly higher lows. although this normally means were in for a huge move to the downside in broader markets i believe the timing just isnt there at the present moment. things could change overnight, but they could also change the other way just as fast, and however beat down uvxy may be right now it can always go lower next week. i dont think its unfair to stick to the 11.50 target as a rule of thumb while the s&p is showing signs that daily consolidation could lead to resuming the bounce. edit*(if we hold 11.79 closing above 13.79)edit* i will change my mind, but for now i remain bearish on vix.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by cerealpatterns