i see a full recovery if broader market bulls can continue this turn around. should we find ourselves in a position where melt up is taking place, i think we have no choice but to go with that. the daily picture is shaping up in bulls favor, but the smart thing to do is wait for confirmation of the trend change.
i wouldnt want to be holding this thing long right now. were at 84 rsi hourly and a pullback from these levels seems like its in the works. mid to high 15s is the target. even if we gap up and blast to the upside, i dont think were really in hot water unless spx breaks to new lows, and it doesnt seem like thats going to happen.
theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of...
this is a rapid consecutive forecast going into the end of the week i dont foresee vix ending above week highs, but there could be bounce if we dont immediately continue lower on the daily the forecast cluster represents output from the ghost feed this is based on qqe, rsi, vwma 14.74, 14.24, 13.81 are key levels
wti is still in a weekly uptrend, and that could mean bulll ish business for GUSH. i think every time we hit a bottom in monthly oil futures we experience a period of upside with extreme volatility until that pattern of lower weekly highs during reversal breaks on the daily. we are just near treating VWMA as support.
generally this etf is going one direction: down, but the weight may be lifted off its shoulders briefly as calls expiring next week are eliminated. if we cant break to new intraday highs i would imagine sqqq has one last trip above 40 only to get sucked back to vwma.
i think we will see a lower high, followed by a lower low, but we will stay over the .382, and then continue higher every period of volatility that dried up quickly or was extenuating in nature was v shaped, and every period that was more exaggerated or corrective in nature was cypher shaped. we could bull cypher with a touch of support, but if we break it things...
when we cross this vwma, and the level of .618 retracement doesnt hold uvxy drops really big really fast. algos could flip bear at any moment, but there is bound to be at least one bounce worth noting between here and $12
just as spx is in a buy sided tightening range top, vix is in a sell sided tightening range bear. referto the below chart for that pattern on the 1 minute if UVXY cant break this range bull then broader markets remain a buy as long as vix puts keep piling in if we make a lower high and continue down this is a solid confirmation of bear vix
if we fail the double top, and break 18.34 confirming a downtrend with a lower high, or immediately continue bear vix, im fine with selling volatility here. if we immediately continue over 19.17, or we set a higher low over the .382 of the bounce and break the high i would stay long vix for the time being if multiple sectors are continuing to make new lows...
i really want to stress that i am not saying the daily/weekly trend is going to change right back to bull. with that said, i think there is money to be made long over the next week, as long as futures sunday dont have the craziest bear session since corona. some shorts are going to cover on the next drop, and this is going to cause a small squeeze. i dont think...
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we have reached another crossroads for vix, and thus one of my favorite etfs: UVXY. if we hold mid to high 11s the we could be up at mid 12s by friday if we keep breaking to new lows today and tommorow then we could be back down in the low 11s by the middle of next week.
i just wanted to show people why this could still go very badly for broader market longs. im not doomsaying, or fear mongering here. im simply outlining why i still have a long forecast for vix, even though we are almost breaking to new lows in uvxy. the highlighted areas are times in the very recent past where spx has increased in volatility even while indices...
nasdaq futures are looking pretty troubled right now, and if we see a large enough gap down and break last weeks low this could spell out further weakness in the index which could last into march volume has refused to drop off, and if we see another spike it will probably be selling taking out fridays high probably opens the gate to $76, and additional volatility...
if we dont break 133.33 confidently, and confirm 15 min reversal pattern with a lower low 131.85 this may signal overheated conditions in spx should we keep the uptrend holding 130.69 and continuing higher i imagine we have a go at 135, although id still be wary of buying borader markets right now except for a quick flip if we dont hold 130 and cant get back over...