LOGARITHMIC
BTCUSD on Log scale - Long waited trendline touchFirst of all i am not a professional trader or analyst, so feel free to adjust and discuss my idea..
As you can see in the chart, bitcoin didn't break the trend line yet on log scale (BTC broke it on linear scale!!)
This is a moment of truth; whether the BTC will touch the trendline and go long or it will break it to 2,993 USD level
I'm a bit optimistic and i think we are going long this time..
Good Luck in your trades guys :)
Bitcoin long term overview (logarithmic)Time to sobering for btc, in spite of all uneasiness, ordeals, even tears i like to hear the footsteps of beautiful things. Community psychology, bluntly below zero this is exactly perfect time to initiate bull market on the other hand ''Bakkt'' (ICE) news is solidly remarkable and most of news will follow this sentiment. Let's take a look at what is chart telling us. The first cross between ma's witnessed a growth of 7000% within just 2 years However, when second cross occured tremendously held at the btc 6000 level. From my point of view 6k levels were the dip of btc also this ''Tether'' fud brought us to 0.618 fib level. If/when we obtain some upward movement above 0.618 fib level most likely we should wait possible cross between ma's and possible bull market as well according to chart. Frankly, i always adopt win-win market and I want to be on the side every re-tail trader wins so all i need that keep our motivation high and prepare for next bull market technically and emotionally. Cheers
BTCUSD resistance viewed in LOG & LINEAR differs considerablyThe two charts show how viewing the current BTCUSD price trend and breakouts are considerably different when seen in LOG scale view and LINEAR scale view. While i use LINEAR scale for the majority of my charting, I often switch between the two scales, especially when there has been limited movement when price crosses one resistance but fails to make the scale of price movement expected. Perhaps some greater movement will take place when BTC crosses the sideways resistance as viewed in LOG scale.
Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlines So, there are many charts to be seen at the moment on tradingview, showing this latest longterm trendline, and how BTC will certainly bounce off it, giving us a low of around 4500.
However, if we look at BTC historical data, we can see, that bitcoin already had 2 trendlines of this type, which both were broken.
The first one starting in 2010 until 2011, the second on was a 2 year trendline from 2012 to 2014.
I think the same will happen again. People just give too much credit to these longterm lines, and I think the longterm bitcoin growth is not a line in the log chart, but a square root function, meaning
that the steepness of the longterm lines will get lower and lower.
A more accurate indicator for finding the low is imho the weekly MA200 line, painted in solid red. This line will offer extremely solid support, just like it did in 2014-2015.
BTC will probably rest there for a while in 2019, before it comes back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket.
Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlinesSo at the moment I see many charts that draw the longterm trendline from the last bullmarket, that started end of 2015, early 2016.
By this trendline, we come to the conclusion that the low will be at around 4500, because that trendline is solid as rock, it cannot break, impossible.
However, many people forget that we already had trendlines like this twice. The first when bitcoin was very young, starting from 2010, the second one starting from 2012 and reaching all the way to 2014.
But the problem is: BOTH were broken.
That is because I think the bitcoin growth doesn't follow one exponential trendline, it breaks the old ones, and adpots for new ones that are not so steep as the previous one.
So I think this time it will be no different, the longterm trendline will break, panic will ensue because people give far too much credit to these longterm lines, a panic sell-off is almost certain.
So I think we'll go below 4500. But then, BTC will find the bottom and come back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket :)
#Bitcoin long term log scale analysis #btcusd $btc #cryptoBitcoin long term log scale analysis:
To analyse the percent change of bitcoin over the long term period.
What we are seeing here is two major corrections from bitcoin since double digits prices .
1st one when btc crossed the 250 level barrier. It lasted 91days with a 74% drop in price, in the same period the RSI dropped 52%
2nd one when btc crossed the 1000 level barrier. It lasted close to 406days with 87% drop in price and RSI dropping 71% in the same period to a low of 27.5
Currently we are in the 3rd major correction that is seen afer btc broke the 10k level and faced exhaustion while coming close to 20k
We've seen 71% drop in prices so far(196days) while the RSI in the same period has dropped 54% to a low of 41.3 .
The 91 Days correction (-74%) was till the weekly 30MA(green) & 78.6fib support of the move till 259
The 406 days correction (-87%) was till 152 level that was a prev resistance level, in the 78.6-88.6 fib region
Btc found decent support at the weekly 100MA during this correction period.
Currently the weekly 100MA is at 4607
78.6fib support is at 4328
Previous swing high: 4980 will also provide good support
XVGUSD 1D chartTrend lines on logarithmic scale chart
Inverse Head and Shoulder
Two possible right shoulder patterns
Comparing BTC with the 2013 and 2014 cyclesI keep seeing the 2014 bear fractal charts everywhere. There seems to be a trend going on or something. However, many people forget that before 2014, there was another rally, in early 2013.
Both rallies ended in a large correction, with a subsequent logarithmic downtrend line.
In both cases the trendline was broken. In 2014 it was a failed breakout, meaning that after breaking through the log res, it failed to go above the previous fibonacci resistance (mostly the 0.5 and 0.38 fib levels from the entire rise of the bull move).
It then continued to decline.
In 2013 however, we see a successful breakout from the downtrend line, leading to the second rally of 2013.
The question is now: Which path will BTC take now?
I think that BTC will continue to climb to the 0.38 fibo level, around 11500. Then, the usual oscillations, and afterwards it shall be decided if BTC does another rally like in 2013, or fails and continues to decline like in 2014.
People who pretend to know are liars, no one knows what will happen. However, one can position himself or herself accordingly after we hit 11500.
I will be prepared for both scenarios. Luckily, after the first pumps or dumps, it should be clear which direction BTC will take :)






















