TVC:SPX using a log chart I channeled the market since it's inception. The top of the channel (in red) is exclusively where the major stock market crashes have happened. The bottom channel (in green) is "crash free." The bold purple line is where 3 of last 4 market crashes have happened. Since the "Nixon Shock," $spx has failed to breach this line, except during...
I thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue...
While BTC has dipped back down recently, we are still very much on track. In fact, we are still fairly far ahead with regards to our "fair value" logarithmic regression support band, fit to "non-bubble" data.
This market cycle will likely be a long one, so buckle up for the journey, and maybe one day BTC will flirt with the upper "peak" logarithmic regression...
In my previous long term Bitcoin analysis I argued that we had much more room to grow, more than 50% actually. This post is to indicate that the current bull trend is far from over and that we, most likely, will have another couple of weeks of the current market.
Seeing this week's sharp increase, the following couple of weeks will most likely be bullish too...
- I never understood why most students needed to learn what a Log was until I've studied a BTC chart.
- A Log curve in simple term goes 0 to .99999999
- It never touches 1. It is infinite. Meaning it goes forever always getting closer to 1.
- My assumption is that BTC will become stable one day. It may take many more halving's for that to happen.
I think the bull run isn't over, however there is a small probability that the $65K was the top and we are all on the denial phase now.
Remember market act as its own and in most cases acts the opposite of the herd,
- Most is expecting the bull market not to be over
- Most was expecting a blow off top
If $65k was not the top here is my outlook for bitcoin moving...
Experimenting with Bitcoin high time frame log charts, I began to notice some patterns.
Please note: This is a work in progress and by no means financial advice.
Highlighted in yellow are two box areas, the rest is built around them. The similarity appears striking, imo. Does this mean the chart will continue to produce and follow these patterns?
Log charts are...
A logarithmic look at the evolution of BTC price since its very early days
The following key takeaways:
BTC tends to extend only about 1/5 of its prior impulse move measured in terms of % increase;
BTC tends to react ≈38.20% on a logarithmic scale to form a correctional bear market;
The sub $80k area is a pivotal area to look for supply inflows.
In this chart I have used logarithmic regression to identify cycle tops and bottoms in BTC. Using the hypothesis of lengthening cycles, I have 3 price targets for a cycle top in mid-to-late 2022. With the current weighting of my regression, it shows that BTC is undervalued right now, with the fair value shown using a blue line.
Here we can see the PI cycle top flashed early much like 2013
In 2013 it was April fools day when BTC started its correction
BTC reached the Center point of logarithmic regression around July 1
This correction was only 3 months in length
I do see a similar pattern here, If this plays out like the super cycle in 2013
then my personal targets are:
Just put this together to share with noobs. Nothing revolutionary here.
Thank you to Harold Christopher Burger, @filbfilb, PlanB, and /u/capriole_charles for providing research which has been the foundation of my perspective on Bitcoin.
If you are new to these concepts, read about these fundamental BTC concepts in the following 4 articles:
Bitcoin's imperfect descending triangle currently targeting a measured move to $24K volume support zone. The $20K level of VPVR strong support also lines up with the logarithmic growth support trend-line. Short term looks bearish, long-term looks like a buy the dip opportunity before 6 figures.
Never underestimate the accuracy of Bitcoin's descending triangle...
Here is why Winklevoss brothers estimated high prizes for ethereum in bullrun peak.
Do remember to start taking profits / liquidity as we approach the target bubble.
As Ethereums progression reachhes 2.0 (small steps), things are gonna get excited!
This chart gives a lot of macro technical outlook!
If we mark the CYCLEs on the BTC over a log monthly chart, we can see that they connect and mark the top pretty good. This is of course common for all.
Now, let's add the 3 more ARCs to mark the bottoms. Now, it starts to get a bit out of common.
When we look at it, everytime after the TOP, BTC dropped below...
Consider taking some profits in the coming summer.. there will be bear year after this run.
Also possible altcoin fluctuation, maybe possible to make gains after bitcoin has reached its peak.
But everything will fall drastically after semester.
Sorry strange english, my native finnish brains make Ralli-finglish sentences.