I thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue...
While BTC has dipped back down recently, we are still very much on track. In fact, we are still fairly far ahead with regards to our "fair value" logarithmic regression support band, fit to "non-bubble" data.
This market cycle will likely be a long one, so buckle up for the journey, and maybe one day BTC will flirt with the upper "peak" logarithmic regression...
I have fit the weekly logarithmic regression and used 20/50/100/200 MA indicator for ETH. For a bullish trend, I expect to see a double cross on the MAs, with the 50 and 100 both crossing the 200, followed by steady separation of ordered MAs (green yellow orange red) from top to bottom.
It took 7 years of market ups and downs, from 2010 to 2017, for the crypto complex to reach a total Market Capitalisation of $761B. However, a similar amount ($741B) has been added in the past 3.5 weeks. Think about that a little, as much new capital has been added to the crypto markets in 4 weeks as existed in the market at the 2017 peak!
So time for a review of...
Here we can see the PI cycle top flashed early much like 2013
In 2013 it was April fools day when BTC started its correction
BTC reached the Center point of logarithmic regression around July 1
This correction was only 3 months in length
I do see a similar pattern here, If this plays out like the super cycle in 2013
then my personal targets are:
- I never understood why most students needed to learn what a Log was until I've studied a BTC chart.
- A Log curve in simple term goes 0 to .99999999
- It never touches 1. It is infinite. Meaning it goes forever always getting closer to 1.
- My assumption is that BTC will become stable one day. It may take many more halving's for that to happen.
A logarithmic look at the evolution of BTC price since its very early days
The following key takeaways:
BTC tends to extend only about 1/5 of its prior impulse move measured in terms of % increase;
BTC tends to react ≈38.20% on a logarithmic scale to form a correctional bear market;
The sub $80k area is a pivotal area to look for supply inflows.
Here is why Winklevoss brothers estimated high prizes for ethereum in bullrun peak.
Do remember to start taking profits / liquidity as we approach the target bubble.
As Ethereums progression reachhes 2.0 (small steps), things are gonna get excited!
Just put this together to share with noobs. Nothing revolutionary here.
Thank you to Harold Christopher Burger, @filbfilb, PlanB, and /u/capriole_charles for providing research which has been the foundation of my perspective on Bitcoin.
If you are new to these concepts, read about these fundamental BTC concepts in the following 4 articles:
Here is a trendline from March 12 2020 to October 7 2020
extended on a logarithmic price scale
using 12Hour heikin-ashi candles :
March 12 2020 was the lowest price point of 2020,
and forms the beginning point for the trendline.
Using that point,
we can form the lowest unbroken support trendline
before the post-ATH...
In this chart I have used logarithmic regression to identify cycle tops and bottoms in BTC. Using the hypothesis of lengthening cycles, I have 3 price targets for a cycle top in mid-to-late 2022. With the current weighting of my regression, it shows that BTC is undervalued right now, with the fair value shown using a blue line.