This is my possbile bullish scenario(I also included a link to my post looking at the bearish prediction to counter this idea)
First is an image of the Weekly to show the current 5 wave prediction:
I personally lean more bearish towards bitcoin for the next year or so but as I explained in my post before it is always a mistake to not look towards both sides and find possibilities and targets.
What is shown here is a prediction of one ending Daily 5 wave impulse with a correction and another 5 wave impulse to follow it.
This fits pretty well for currently saying we could be on an ending Daily wave 5 as it looks like we could be within a rising broading wedge on the daily and the target reaches the 0.618 of the trend as shown.
If still bullish this would be the end of wave 3 on the weekly.
I have what would be a Weekly Wave 4 retracing back to the 56.5k area due to the measured break of the rising wedge. Also, it would be the 0.5 of a Fib retracement.
The Weekly image I included at the top does show the 77k area to be at the 0.618 but a push to the 0.786 is never out of the question.
The timing is based off of Gann's solar cycles theory as to why the dates are picked here. Quite accurate and a good way to keep from just picking random dates as timing is always the most difficult.
What is interesting is if these targets are hit on these dates then it will mean 2 more taps on that logarithmic curve that has been acting as the strongest macro resistance:
(note: more explanations within the image)
This type of bullish prediction is a bit boring I admit.
But the amount of capital needed to push this asset to over 100k needs to have more volume and more larger interests to jump in. Currently, volume has been decreasing for quite some time as shown:
The only way to see that happening is for a sizeable correction following a possible Weekly wave 5, and then wait and see if that draws in larger buyers. I would be watching for that within the indicators I use.
Seeing this happening at the 40k-45k range feels highly unlikely to me personally.
But if it does then I would say that the future targets after are far greater than 100k as smart money does not tend to buy into an asset unless they feel very confident a 10x+ return is possible.
Either way this in my opinion would take a good amount of time to reach some of the more bullish targets I have seen posted before (100k, 250k, 500k, etc.).
I am not going to post an ultimate target for this as it is truly impossible to do as everything beyond my price targets shown are purely speculative and I would just merely be guessing.
There could be many other bullish predictions, just for me I tried to find one that is both as realistic and balanced as possible.
Bitcoin is highly volatile but on a macro it has followed rules within many forms of TA fairly consistently and this is a fitting outcome.
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
LOGARITHMIC
AMGN with nice setupHi Traders,
AMGN fell after Q2 Earnings back in August and entered a downtrend down to ~200 USD. With this, it entered a strong area of support (ATH of 2018, low of Oct. 2020).
AMGN then broke downward trend but then get capped by resistance at 210 USD and retestet downward trendline from above.
By the end of October just before earnings it started to move up with significant increase in volume. This weeks retest of supportlevel at 210 USD was perfectly in line with fib levels.
So by now the short term trend tends to be upwards, we have retestet trendline and support level and earnings behind us. Maybe ex-date can ruin this setup, but to be safe, an entry could also be done after passing last high at 219.26 USD. SL slighty under supportlevel of 210 USD.
First target is trendline and maybe ATH.
Cheers
#BSV Bitcoin SV LOG Chart- 5X potentialI always wonder why BSV is offered on Robinhood and not on Coinbase. :P
I put together a Log chart on a 1D and looking at history to assume where this is going.
What are your thoughts? Comment below and hit the like please. Thank you!
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
#LTC Litecoin 1M LOG Chart - 10XCould a 10X still be in the cards for Litecoin LTC?
I put together a 1M LOG Chart for LTC and assumed the double bottom breakout in the works. The 478% calculation brings the fib level to 2.618 almost perfectly. Of course this is an assumption but I can't rule this out.
What are your thoughts? Comment below and hit the like please. Thank you!
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
Polkadot #DOT 1D LOG ChartAssuming it following in the parallel log channel, Nov 15 high/low noted in the chart.
Fundamentally, DOT is a good project and has strong growth potential.
What are your thoughts? Comment below and hit the like please. Thank you!
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
logarithmic chart of the Maticin logarithmic scale, the price hit the bottom of the ascending parallel channel in 4h time-frame. by looking at the bottom of the channel closely, one can see that Matic breaks the descending trend line and supported very well by its trend line.
Is 73k a possible top?? Confluence is showing this possibilityAfter breaking the ATH it is evident that this is no longer an ABC correction as it had finished at 28.8k as a likely Wave 4 on the macro.
Now a possible ending 5 Wave on the macro or a possible newer Wave 3 is in play.
While trying to look for a new target there is a lot of confluence in both the 1W time frame and the 4H time frame that points to the 73k area.
An explanation to what I'm showing:
- The top-left chart shows the diminishing return logarithmic curve that has been show by many and has proven over the history of bitcoin and is currently its strongest resistance. The price is approaching this area again and if hits before this Weekly candle or the next it will hit around 73k.
- This to me is the strongest example of thinking 73k could be a top just because this log curve has the longest history of all shown here.
- The bottom-left chart shows the current macro Elliot Wave (I currently think after breaking the ATH today we are in Wave 5 now) and a possible fractal that shows the current target.
- Wave 5 could possibly be over now as the 0.618 has been hit, but for me when I do Elliot Waves I always will believe the 0.786 to be the MAX target for a 5 wave
- What is interesting here is the similarities of the 42k -> 28.7k -> 58.4k move of the past compared to the current move from 53k -> 39.6k to our current price now. It does show a bit better on a Daily chart.
- Pulling out a fractal of the past and matching with with the present as shown does target the 73k area as well. This is between the 0.618 & 0.786 so have to believe this as a possibility as well
- The top-right chart shows the current 4H Elliot Wave. Though this could be interpreted differently, it does appear to me that we are in Wave 5 on that time frame and it as well has a target of ~73k which is the golden pocket area.
- The bottom-right chart shows the 4H on a log chart. I have created a log curve of the entire 53k retrace to 39.6k and the current move up. I look to this as a possible timing as to when approx. the 73k top may occur and the start of the possible fallout that may be following but is pure speculation. I do these curves as they are good at finding reversals.
If this is true then bitcoin will be due for a very long-term bear market as a large A,B,C style correction will be likely to follow. I do not have targets yet as I rather see this play out first, especially because breaking the ATH changes all my prior targets.
What would invalidate what I am showing here is a break of 77k (a Weekly close not a wick) which would break the 0.786 of the Wave 5. If that happens then my opinion would be we are in Wave 3 of a new bullish impulse and a higher ATH will come.
I myself am bearish towards the 100k narrative so I feel this is quite probable.
I do believe though that a new possible ATH at 73k will take some time for any long-term bearish target to hit as this current move that started at 29k will take time to distribute. Plus, looking on the Daily RSI it shows no bearish divergences as of yet, even broke 75 which has been resisting for some time now.
I would say a bounce from an initial drop would be above or around 50k and then we would have to re-evaluate once we see what the next move is as even a 73k top could be a possible Wave 3 too.
Would not be surprised to see a new Wyckoff distribution happening also, even if this is a Wave 3. Always have to be mindful of that as this is the type of scenario where they can trap a lot of bullish retail buyers in the end.
Either way things have gotten far more interesting for bitcoin in the coming weeks and months...
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BTC : March 12 2020 Log Line
Here is a trendline from March 12 2020 to October 7 2020
extended on a logarithmic price scale
using 12Hour heikin-ashi candles :
March 12 2020 was the lowest price point of 2020,
and forms the beginning point for the trendline.
Using that point,
we can form the lowest unbroken support trendline
before the post-ATH drop.
Let's highlight our current battle, and then zoom in a bit :
Extending the line to the right shows that BTC broke below the trendline numerous times, the furthest point below happening about 3 weeks into July 2021.
1Hour view :
It appears that horizontal resistances may not be the only factor in the current battle.
5Minute view :
Of note,
I would consider this line as the middle of a ascending range or channel of influence,
given that it is formed using rather dated (but important) price points.
Therefore, I'll be watching for an obvious upward price launch not just at the line itself, but also from the surrounding area to signify that the line has been broken to the upside.
And if we do get an obvious break above the line, perhaps it will resume its previous role of ascending support?
Let's see what happens.
// Durbtrade
BTC 180K-200K top in Q2-Q3 2022?Major trendline resistance was broken recently at 51k level.
We may be in a mid-cycle peak on to the way up to 180k-200k until ~Aug 2022.
Would still remain cautious atm as the traditional markets are undergoing a major 100 year-cycle correction that could drag $BTC with it.
But, there is a chance that every asset on the traditional market will get tokenized, possibly decoupling bitcoin from it from here on out.
Extra Long Cycle with a Triple Top? Log chart for total market cap showing how an extra long cycle could play out. Careful hodling when prices are along the top resistance levels. Unless a breakout and confirmation happens, remember it's nice to trade for some stablecoins when you're in lots of profits. Personally, I think the old "boom and bust" rhythm will begin to mellow out and cycles won't be so extreme anymore, but still plenty of opportunity to do well.
Why Log charts can be helpful in the crypto marketAs you can see, previous peaks almost disappear and become irrelevant as each new bull move occurs
Log charts provide a more detailed perspective of price action
Its crazy to think ENJIN could be $140, if that $140 price was hit, would tower over the current peak which is already massive
Total Market Cap – Projection ReviewIt took 7 years of market ups and downs, from 2010 to 2017, for the crypto complex to reach a total Market Capitalisation of $761B. However, a similar amount ($741B) has been added in the past 3.5 weeks. Think about that a little, as much new capital has been added to the crypto markets in 4 weeks as existed in the market at the 2017 peak!
So time for a review of my previous study to recalibrate for the extended correction and the market cycle.
Market Outlook WeeklyTVC:SPX using a log chart I channeled the market since it's inception. The top of the channel (in red) is exclusively where the major stock market crashes have happened. The bottom channel (in green) is "crash free." The bold purple line is where 3 of last 4 market crashes have happened. Since the "Nixon Shock," $spx has failed to breach this line, except during the "dot-com bubble." U.S. inflation rates are rising, the Buffet Indicator (divide by US GDP on the chart) is at an all time high, and the CAPE (SPX ECY on chart) is starting to. rise, like it has at the top of every crash. However, a major crash has not when CAPE is above that black line, excluding COVID.
Note: Not claiming a crash now, just saying there are some warning signals and to be cautious.
How to use "Auto Trendline and Breakout Alert" IndicatorIn this tutorial, we will learn how to use the "Auto Trendline & Breakout Alert (Linear / Log)" indicator.
Note: You can find it in the scripts section of my profile
Auto Trendline & Breakout Alert(Linear / Log) Full-Version by BobRivera990
Overall Introduction
This indicator is the best tool for breakout traders.
Drawing and evaluating the trend lines of multiple charts in different time frames is a very time-consuming and tedious task. In addition, being aware of breakouts in the shortest possible time requires constant monitoring.
With this tool, you can draw and classify trend lines in a fraction of a second and by placing an alert on any chart, you can receive notifications about breakouts, wherever you are.
The classification of trend lines is done based on the reaction of the price chart to the trend lines and the analysis of the trading volume .
This indicator is designed to reclassify trend lines with each reaction of the price chart. These lines are classified into 6 levels and these levels are distinguished by different colors. Thus, any touching or crossing of the price chart can make a difference.
Features
This indicator is designed for use on both linear and logarithmic scales. It works linearly by default. If you are using a logarithmic chart, enter the settings menu and set the chart scale parameter to “Log”.
The indicator is equipped with the volume status tool to identify and avoid false breakouts. Note that you can't completely avoid false breakouts, but you can minimize risk and loss. I have already published volume status as a separate script.
Several filters are provided to customize alerts. You can limit alerts based on the level and strength of broken trend lines , volume status, and type of breakout (Cross-Over, Cross-Under, or both).
The last breakouts panel gives an overview of the current market situation. You can activate it in the settings menu. the figure below shows the panel:
How to setup
There are many parameters in the settings menu, but two are more important. One is “Chart Scale” and the other is the “Max Operational Range Length".
Set the “chart scale” parameter according to the chart, otherwise the trend lines drawn by the indicator do not match the price chart.
If you are using a linear chart, select the "Linear" option or if you are using a logarithmic chart, select the "Log" option.
Max Operational Range Length Limits the range of the price chart that is processed by the indicator.
By increasing this parameter:
The strength and durability of the trend lines increases.
The number of breakout signals decreases.
The importance of breakout signals increases.
The indicator processing load increases.
The best range for "Max Operational Range" is from 300 to 1200,Change it until you get the best view possible.
Also by changing the "Filter" parameter from 1X to 5X, you can reduce the clutter in the chart.
The following figure shows the results of correct and incorrect settings:
Use it well...
Bitcoin's Descending Triangle Target: $24K (Mind The Gap)Bitcoin's imperfect descending triangle currently targeting a measured move to $24K volume support zone. The $20K level of VPVR strong support also lines up with the logarithmic growth support trend-line. Short term looks bearish, long-term looks like a buy the dip opportunity before 6 figures.
Never underestimate the accuracy of Bitcoin's descending triangle measured move targets, if the breakdown is confirmed:
For alternative broadening wedge theory and bullish buy the dip scenario, see here:






















