Is 73k a possible top?? Confluence is showing this possibility
After breaking the ATH it is evident that this is no longer an ABC correction as it had finished at 28.8k as a likely Wave 4 on the macro.
Now a possible ending 5 Wave on the macro or a possible newer Wave 3 is in play.
While trying to look for a new target there is a lot of confluence in both the 1W time frame and the 4H time frame that points to the 73k area.
An explanation to what I'm showing:
- The top-left chart shows the diminishing return logarithmic curve that has been show by many and has proven over the history of bitcoin and is currently its strongest resistance. The price is approaching this area again and if hits before this Weekly candle or the next it will hit around 73k.
- This to me is the strongest example of thinking 73k could be a top just because this log curve has the longest history of all shown here.
- The bottom-left chart shows the current macro Elliot Wave (I currently think after breaking the ATH today we are in Wave 5 now) and a possible fractal that shows the current target.
- Wave 5 could possibly be over now as the 0.618 has been hit, but for me when I do Elliot Waves I always will believe the 0.786 to be the MAX target for a 5 wave
- What is interesting here is the similarities of the 42k -> 28.7k -> 58.4k move of the past compared to the current move from 53k -> 39.6k to our current price now. It does show a bit better on a Daily chart.
- Pulling out a fractal of the past and matching with with the present as shown does target the 73k area as well. This is between the 0.618 & 0.786 so have to believe this as a possibility as well
- The top-right chart shows the current 4H Elliot Wave. Though this could be interpreted differently, it does appear to me that we are in Wave 5 on that time frame and it as well has a target of ~73k which is the golden pocket area.
- The bottom-right chart shows the 4H on a log chart. I have created a log curve of the entire 53k retrace to 39.6k and the current move up. I look to this as a possible timing as to when approx. the 73k top may occur and the start of the possible fallout that may be following but is pure speculation. I do these curves as they are good at finding reversals.
If this is true then bitcoin will be due for a very long-term bear market as a large A,B,C style correction will be likely to follow. I do not have targets yet as I rather see this play out first, especially because breaking the ATH changes all my prior targets.
What would invalidate what I am showing here is a break of 77k (a Weekly close not a wick) which would break the 0.786 of the Wave 5. If that happens then my opinion would be we are in Wave 3 of a new bullish impulse and a higher ATH will come.
I myself am bearish towards the 100k narrative so I feel this is quite probable.
I do believe though that a new possible ATH at 73k will take some time for any long-term bearish target to hit as this current move that started at 29k will take time to distribute. Plus, looking on the Daily RSI it shows no bearish divergences as of yet, even broke 75 which has been resisting for some time now.
I would say a bounce from an initial drop would be above or around 50k and then we would have to re-evaluate once we see what the next move is as even a 73k top could be a possible Wave 3 too.
Would not be surprised to see a new Wyckoff distribution happening also, even if this is a Wave 3. Always have to be mindful of that as this is the type of scenario where they can trap a lot of bullish retail buyers in the end.
Either way things have gotten far more interesting for bitcoin in the coming weeks and months...
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
Now a possible ending 5 Wave on the macro or a possible newer Wave 3 is in play.
While trying to look for a new target there is a lot of confluence in both the 1W time frame and the 4H time frame that points to the 73k area.
An explanation to what I'm showing:
- The top-left chart shows the diminishing return logarithmic curve that has been show by many and has proven over the history of bitcoin and is currently its strongest resistance. The price is approaching this area again and if hits before this Weekly candle or the next it will hit around 73k.
- This to me is the strongest example of thinking 73k could be a top just because this log curve has the longest history of all shown here.
- The bottom-left chart shows the current macro Elliot Wave (I currently think after breaking the ATH today we are in Wave 5 now) and a possible fractal that shows the current target.
- Wave 5 could possibly be over now as the 0.618 has been hit, but for me when I do Elliot Waves I always will believe the 0.786 to be the MAX target for a 5 wave
- What is interesting here is the similarities of the 42k -> 28.7k -> 58.4k move of the past compared to the current move from 53k -> 39.6k to our current price now. It does show a bit better on a Daily chart.
- Pulling out a fractal of the past and matching with with the present as shown does target the 73k area as well. This is between the 0.618 & 0.786 so have to believe this as a possibility as well
- The top-right chart shows the current 4H Elliot Wave. Though this could be interpreted differently, it does appear to me that we are in Wave 5 on that time frame and it as well has a target of ~73k which is the golden pocket area.
- The bottom-right chart shows the 4H on a log chart. I have created a log curve of the entire 53k retrace to 39.6k and the current move up. I look to this as a possible timing as to when approx. the 73k top may occur and the start of the possible fallout that may be following but is pure speculation. I do these curves as they are good at finding reversals.
If this is true then bitcoin will be due for a very long-term bear market as a large A,B,C style correction will be likely to follow. I do not have targets yet as I rather see this play out first, especially because breaking the ATH changes all my prior targets.
What would invalidate what I am showing here is a break of 77k (a Weekly close not a wick) which would break the 0.786 of the Wave 5. If that happens then my opinion would be we are in Wave 3 of a new bullish impulse and a higher ATH will come.
I myself am bearish towards the 100k narrative so I feel this is quite probable.
I do believe though that a new possible ATH at 73k will take some time for any long-term bearish target to hit as this current move that started at 29k will take time to distribute. Plus, looking on the Daily RSI it shows no bearish divergences as of yet, even broke 75 which has been resisting for some time now.
I would say a bounce from an initial drop would be above or around 50k and then we would have to re-evaluate once we see what the next move is as even a 73k top could be a possible Wave 3 too.
Would not be surprised to see a new Wyckoff distribution happening also, even if this is a Wave 3. Always have to be mindful of that as this is the type of scenario where they can trap a lot of bullish retail buyers in the end.
Either way things have gotten far more interesting for bitcoin in the coming weeks and months...
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
This is another possibility if we're going into yet another distribution. This daily fractal comes from the previous ATH.
This won't be exactly the same (Wyckoff rule #1) but it does fit well with both my support/resistance lines and also the two logarithmic curves shown.
This would be a ATH of roughly 74.5k so still works especially knowing it is likely to be a wick to that high.
Once again pure speculation but something to watch nonetheless.