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Sterling : Life beyond the shackles Last year in June, United Kingdom's majority chose to leave the European Union. This year on March 29th Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially stamping the process to sever ties with the bloc.This brings to end a 44-year-old relationship that always had National political parties at odds, will the UK be better off without the Union or with.Most economists hold a negative view of the Brexit.They warned the public that a Leave win could have acute but serious consequences for UK economy, an immediate increase in unemployment, inflation etc. Their predictions were wide off the mark.Although inflation increased unemployment is at a record low since 1975.This is a good indication that separation from EU would be good for the UK economy in the long run.The UK once fully segregated from the Union and the regulatory burdens of trade policy could benefit immensely by adopting their own free trade policy with major world markets. There are more than 2 million EU nationals working in the UK, a divorce would give British government control back over who it allows to live and work, hence more work opportunities for Britons.After Germany, Britain is the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, leaving EU would mean all that money would be used for the national budget.But what the UK actually stands to gain will depend on the terms of negotiating with EU.It might be possible that EU could force UK to keep contributing to EU budget if they want access to EU Single Market.There have been hints that Britain will have to pay a hefty exit fee to EU that could run into tens of billion Pounds.Whether Brexit will bring about economic gain or loss for the UK can only be speculated as of now.I am not an economist but an investor and a trader, from my standpoint the worst for GBP is over. Pound in the midst of US Civil War in 1864 reached a value of $10. After the high of $10, its value started to drop and continued the downward slope for over a century against USD. A drop that started in 1864 halted in 1985, which almost brought it down to parity with the USD at 1.0438.I believe that the low of 1985 will remain to be a historical one as I do not see that low being taken out for decades.An unprecedented event like Brexit threw Sterling in a tizzy, it dropped over 1800 pips against the USD in one day after a Leave win was confirmed. And over the next few months, it kept trading lower and stabilized after hitting a low of 1.1980 in October 2016.Now it has started to get back up and is gearing to move upwards from here.The low of October 2016 will remain a very strong support for a long time to come. Coming to the analysis I'm expecting GBPUSD to make a short-term high in last week of October or first week of November. Then a low in last week of November to the first week of December. high in the first week of January and a major low around the first week of February. Then major high around last week of February or first week of March. Highs should be higher highs unless a low is broken, and lows to be higher lows as well. As always, will update as and when changing dynamics necessitates so.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1307339
Strat long term Chart analysis -A nice rounded bottom chart seen as the cup and handle formation comes in for a possible bullish trend confirmed by the new uptrend formed by the second part of the handle. -Volume seams to have significantly increased. -MACD indicates a short correction and also an increase in momentum -If the candles break bellow trend line it would be expected to bounce at the support 1 61.8 Fibonacci line which is also a strongly tested support level. -Further correction would see the charts move towards the second support and possibly a massive swing up. Note: -check for mote information Fundamental and Sentimental analysis to support finding before proceeding. Do comment your thoughts and questions, Thank you.
SLong
by neni_emsu
EURUSD - BAMM & Bullish Bat - MonthlyHi Guys, You will either think this is possibly one of the best potential trades in a while or I'm 'Bat S%*$ Crazy'! Huge Risk to reward on Both BAMM Trigger and then completion of Bullish Bat. The BAMM Trigger is in line with a downtrend and the bat spans years! This will of course take months to come off biggest test of patience ever but I think I will enter small lots and just leave them to run. Let me know of any thoughts or questions! Thank You! Victoria
Short
by Atomic_Pips
/dx LT viewAfternoon traders, Something special happened last week: the Fed funds rate rose to 66bps. Why is this important? Historically, /dx depends on not only the direction of US yields, but also the absolute level. A "high yielder" can be defined as a currency whose central bank offers at least the third highest central bank yield in the G10. By this definition, USD is now officially a high yielder. The last time this happened for more than a few months in 1979 and 1997, the dollar rallied by 30% and 20% respectively. Looking at long-end yields too, UST 10Y yields are now at least the third highest across the 5, 10 and 30Y tenors. The dollar is a true high yielder. With the US labour market operating close to full capacity and growth running above trend, one would expect wage pressures to rise in 2017 (thus leading to an acceleration in CPI). Against this backdrop, the Fed is in a good position to start hiking at a decent rate. Near-term upside risks - Since any potential fiscal boost from the Trump administration is still v uncertain, it is yet to be incorporated into the FOMC's economic outlook, as only "some" members included it in their projections. Therefore, it would be sensible to anticipate further $ strength owing to pricing of a steeper path for the fed funds rate in 2017 (currently, fed funds futures are only pricing in 55bp of hikes in the year to come). - FOMC seems to be less concerned about the effect of a higher USD than in the past (neither the Fed statement, Yellen's testimony nor the Q&A made any mention of the greenback despite its recent surge), most likely because recent moves have not been accompanied by higher volatility or a sharp move lower in commod prices (held up by Trump's proposed infrastructure plans). This is a factor that constrained the Fed in the past from accelerating its normalisation pace. - Yellen seemed to take a step back from her comments about running a "high pressure" economy at the most recent meeting. Although Chair Yellen emphasised the fact that the dot plot revision was very moderate, she did not stress her intent to normalise gradually as much as in the past. Based on previous price action, I expect /dx to reach the highs of 2002 as a conservative estimate. The FX compass is pointing North, do not be on the wrong side of it! Good luck and have a Merry Christmas!
TVC:DXYLong
by jamiegleave
WHY 1.17 IS SO IMPORTANT ABOUT EURUSD AND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?Hello traders,we are all witnesses to this EURUSD recent rally triggered by French elections and it's outcome and continued by Mario's Draghi speeches and the slowdown of Dollar and US economy generally. Now we are all wondering where and when this rally will stop? Let's see what technical analysis has to say: TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS 1.We can see the red resistance zone created by the weekly and daily structure. 2.We have also Fibonacci confluence as the 1.13 Fibonacci extension from the downward impulsive move coincides with previous structure. 3.We also have a bearish harmonic Crab pattern completion. 4.If price passes the red resistance area and the 1.17200 level it's more propably to watch the 1.20 soon.. 5.If we would stop before 1.20 OR we rejection and bearish price action there is a valid harmonic pattern completion. 6.We can also see the ascending channel of EURUSD. POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE: BUY STOP AT 1,19700 ENTRY PRICE WITH PENDING ORDER AT 1.18200 FIRST TARGET PRICE T1 AT 1.13450 SECOND TARGET PRICE T2 AT 1.1000 THANKS FOR SUPPORT! KEEP FOLLOWING FOR MORE PROFTIS!!
by The_Greek_Trader
The Bitcoin Rally LONG Continues #2In my opinion, Bitcoin seems to be completing a Wave 4 Triangle formation and will soon breakout of structure to start wave 5 LONG. It seems Wave 3 has already been completed and provided another base Resistance level. Wave 5 target range would be largely due to the impending Aug1 SegWit, as information was provided on my previous analysis here: which it explains the impending August 1st SegWit upgrade and the market entering panic stage (wrongfully because of too many amateur traders), which most likely will result in a deep ABC or possibly a very lengthy double combo WXY Wave combination, until the market settles and things return back to normal. In my analysis, I have added 2 paths which I believe are highly probable to take place, one primary and one secondary. TDI suggests the RSI is not yet quite reached the overbought position, therefore, we can expect an additional upward move, which in my opinion confirms again the possible wave count. I have already entered 3 times since price action had reached the Gartley entry point on the 16th of this month and I shall be holding on to BTC long-term, as I believe once the upgrades have been completed and the panic by the amateur traders has subsided, BTC is surely set to reach above $4,000, possibly more in the next few months. It is also possible to trade the breakout of structure from the triangle formation, however, TP must be at the next Resistance level SL (Stop Loss) must go to BE (Break Even). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn661419
CADCHF broke historical trend lineCADCHF has been decreasing since November 2011. For almost two years, and more precisely since “Black Thursday,” when due to drastic and unexpected collapse of the market caused by the decision of the Swiss National Bank to abandon the rigid EUR/CHF exchange rate at 1.20, pair broke key support at 0.7850 and since then moves in consolidation. Take a look how precisely the bearish trend line is being tested, which for several months has stopped bulls from further growth. Currently, as a result of months of bullish market has once again reached its vicinity and yesterday it was defeated. Permanent overcoming this resistance could open way for bulls even to 0.7850, which is the upper limit of consolidation. It is only breaking the top that can change the general attitude of the market for a longer period of time.
by Comparic
POTENTIONAL BULLISH GARTLEY AND H&S PATTERN ON USDJPYAs we can see we have a lot on USDJPY daily timeframe to watch out. The Trump trade as people like to call it due to it's sensitivity to political facts,as people tend to dump US dollar and buy Japanese Yien in times of crisis and turbulence as safe haven asset and vice versa. So let's get to the point: TECHNICALLY As we notice price is trying to establish the 200EMA which became flat recently. As we can also see at the chart we might form a bullish Gartley pattern on the daily chart but we have also a possible Head and Shoulders fromation. So we have 2 scenarios: 1)First scenario the price can move upwards to test the neck line of the Head and Shoulders formation and if will break it test the A point around red area before we see a retrace to T2 of the Gartley's pattern and 61,8% Fib retracement of the current move up. 2)Second scenario the price will move to the D completion point (green area) where the trade will be activate with targets T1 and T2. POSSIBLE TRADE FIRST TARGET T1 AT 105,500 SECOND TARGET AT T2 106,300 STOP LOSS AT 102,600 THANKS FOR SUPPORT HAPPY TRADING TO ALL!
by The_Greek_Trader