Unhedged capital flows into the EZ have been attributed to the following factors:
- Perception that EZ political risks have subsided, returning market focus back to economic fundamentals
- Improving economic fundamental picture and upside surprises in eco indicators have prompted significant asset allocation shift to European equities and thus, expectations of a...
In effect, this is an extension of my aussie trade posted pre-Trump (26th October 2016) in which we bagged 500 pips.
AUDUSD has seen rapid recovery off the back of both dollar weakness (mainly due to lack of details of the US administration's economic plans) and rapidly rising commodity prices, in particular iron ore (/it has rallied 10% recently,...
Good evening traders,
Energy traders would have noticed the somewhat eery price action on oil prices recently. I believe that recently losses are attributed to:
- Emerging doubts over the degree of compliance with OPEC production cuts as Iraqi exports remain high;
- Concerns about the rate of market rebalancing;
- Rapid rebound in U.S. shale production following...
Hope you all enjoyed the Christmas break and are ready for another year of thrashing the markets.
NZD/USD is currently looking extremely bearish for the following reasons:
- Break of the neckline of the H&S, implying downside movement to 0.66150;
- Break of the trend line support from Jan to June lows;
- Break of the 200dma.
MACD and recent...
Something special happened last week: the Fed funds rate rose to 66bps.
Why is this important? Historically, /dx depends on not only the direction of US yields, but also the absolute level.
A "high yielder" can be defined as a currency whose central bank offers at least the third highest central bank yield in the G10. By this definition, USD...
I suggest that traders short the Norwegian Krone against the USD for the following reasons:
/dx has broken out of its ~2yr consolidation pattern amid Trump's fiscal stimulus promises and subsequent repricing of the Fed's hiking cycle in anticipation of higher US growth and inflation.
NOK remains highly vulnerable to /cl as >50% of Norway's exports are...
- Although recent GDP growth figures have exceeded expectations, there are signs that the Chinese economy is becoming more unbalanced; $MS predicts a Chinese slowdown, potentially reducing demand-side pressure for iron ore (and /cl's failure to maintain above 50 will only aid supply-side capacity)
- I maintain a bullish stance on $ as I believe that the...
Traders - do not be fooled, the recent bearish movement of eur/nzd is purely a retracement following the pair's 2015 move - classic bull flag stuff. On daily chart, the pair closed above the falling trendline that has been in force since mid July, signalling further bullish action for the pair.
I suggest longing upon retest of falling trendline following...