About meHi, my name is Laurent Scherer, I am currency trader and the founder of Lorbeer Investment.
For more information about the mirror trading service of LobreerInv. please visit: www.lorbeerinvestment.com
It might very well be that Price will retrace after this recent impulsive Swing-Breakout.
But... there is a more significant Swing-High Resistence waiting above + the RRR will be much better.
Knowing that ABCD like movements often set up exactly like this:
1. Impulsive move "though" Highs/Lows
2. Some wedge or triangle consolidation
3. Another impulsive move for...
Looking at the daily we see the the major swing highs come at the same price levels whereas the major swing lows are coming higher forming some kind of triangly.
The firs swing low went as low as 88.6% of the the upmove. The second swing low is now resting at support at the 78.6% of the consecutive upmove. Price might bounce of here already however if it...
Looks like price is about to complete an Elliot-Wave #5 before it might reverse into a 3 wave downtrend move. The 1.3250's look like a decent area of multiple resistance for countertrend traders to take short entries.
Break down of the 1.3250:
*Uptrend channel - Price first overshot the channel then undershot. Which leads to the believe of a weakening of the...
Classic buying retracement strategy. Price runs into a 61,8% Fib resistance right at minor swing resistance levels.
The previous swing low "break down" (pink support lines) indicates an intact downtrend.
As of statistics I assume a 25% chance of profit and a 35% chance of loss. With a 2,5:1 Reward to Risk Ratio its a good deal.
Volatility collapsed creating a triangle or wedge pattern
#1 - A breakout to the upside could result in a new swing high => classic trend trade
#2 - A breakout to the downside could result in an ABCD pattern. Traders can chase the D point into SUpport then build a trend trade position
After the Swing high breakout procie retraced almost to the 382 Fibonacci retracement level of th breakout move
The downtrendline of the breakout now failed, price pulled back on that tredn line wihtout closing below.
I am looking for a candlestich reverse pattern to get long
Due to the nature of an oscillating indicator such as an RSI vs lagging idicators such as MACD, the breakout of the RSI Linechart may indicate a range breakout and volatility expansion before price action.
Price sticks right in a daly swing high resitance after a rally with increasing momentum.
RSI is grately overbought. Chances are good for a retracement into support.
If so, then: Buying this pullback you must
These Pattern have a very high rate of success, depending on the actual market cycle and pair between 40% and 70%. This one here even has an awsome RRR
Tip: Look for lower timeframe confirmation before entering
As countertrend trader we should sell the euphoria and buy the depression. Here price keeps rising wihtout major rertracement + RSI ob & divergence
=> Speculating on a 382 Fib retracement. Potential short trade will be triggered by candlestick pattern