Gold Extends Its Downward Pressure Amid Clouded MomentumHello everyone, I see gold still holding its downward pace after forming a top around 4,230–4,250 USD/oz, now hovering near 4,030 USD/oz — trading below the Ichimoku cloud and squeezed between several unfilled Fair Value Gaps, signalling that the market may be rebalancing liquidity before choosing a clearer direction. After the strong surge earlier this month, corrective pressure has returned, pushing price toward the short-term support zone at 4,000–3,980 USD/oz — an area that overlaps with previous green FVGs and where buying reactions typically appear. On the upside, 4,070–4,100 USD/oz has turned into a key resistance region where price has repeatedly attempted to break but failed. Only a decisive breakout above this zone would restore the short-term bullish structure; otherwise, losing 3,980 could open the door for further downside.
On the news front, gold continues to face weight from fading expectations of a Fed rate cut next month, a strengthening US dollar, and the return of risk-off sentiment, all of which leave the metal struggling for momentum. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to CME FedWatch, has sharply fallen from 61.9% to 39.8%, while the likelihood of unchanged rates has climbed to 60.2%. This extends the pressure on gold — a non-yielding asset — while the dollar benefits more clearly. The prolonged government shutdown in the US has also delayed key inflation and labour reports for October, leaving the Fed with less evidence to support a firmer forward-guidance message. Meanwhile, Chair Powell’s cautious stance reinforces the view that higher rates will persist for longer, adding further strain to gold.
Based on both technical and macro factors, I feel this could be gold’s final corrective phase before the market finds equilibrium again. I expect price to ease toward 3,990–3,970 USD/oz to “test” liquidity — an area where demand historically returns. If buyers step in as before, gold could rebound toward 4,100–4,150 USD/oz, and once above 4,150, the next target expands toward 4,200–4,250 USD/oz.
