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$GOOG – Post-Earnings High Tight Flag SetupGoogle ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) is setting up a high tight flag after blowout earnings, and it’s easily one of the strongest charts in the entire Mag 7 lineup right now. 🔹 The Setup: Earnings were outstanding — strong revenue growth and margin expansion. Price has been tightening up perfectly post-earnings, riding above all major moving averages. The pattern has that classic high tight flag look — clean, compact, and primed for continuation. A breakout over $290 is the trigger that could send this higher. 🔹 Why It Stands Out: Relative strength vs. the rest of the Mag 7 — while others are chopping, NASDAQ:GOOG is leading. Tight range = low risk, high clarity. Volume has contracted nicely post-earnings — ideal pre-breakout behavior. 🔹 My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Position: Holding $290 calls for next week’s expiration. 2️⃣ Trigger: Watching for a breakout through $290 with volume confirmation. 3️⃣ Stop: Will cut the position if price breaks under the 9 EMA on the daily chart. Why I Like It: Best relative strength among large-cap tech. Textbook high tight flag structure. Earnings-driven setup with clear risk management — everything lines up clean.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by kunal00
20+ Stocks for November: Your Ultimate Investing Radar📅 October is wrapped up, and a new month always means a new chapter on the charts. Monthly closes reveal which breakouts are real, not temporary spikes, but clear signs that investors are willing to pay higher prices than before. 📊 I’m looking for those moments where the market proves it has changed its mind — when former resistance finally turns into support, and timing starts creating an edge. That’s one of the biggest strengths of technical analysis: we don’t hope it moves, we see the action on the chart. ----------------------------------- 🔍 Over the past days, I’ve done another full round of research: I scanned through both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 , and also handpicked a few strong setups from Europe. In total, you’ll find 20+ stocks today — each with its own description and plan. I know that sounds like a lot, but there are quite a few of you here already 🙏, and every investor has a different strategy. So don’t feel you have to study everything… just scan the names: if something catches your eye, stop and dig in. If not, scroll on. You don’t need to cover them all. 📣 The purpose of my work is simple: "to give you good, technically correct ideas — ones that avoid the classic mistakes that come from buying at the wrong time." …and when you combine that with your own fundamental homework, your success rate might turn out surprisingly green. ----------------------------------- 🧭 November radar In today’s post, you’ll find both breakout setups and corrections that have reached strong support zones. I’ll also go through the major indices, explaining: “why it might be smarter to take half positions instead of going all in.” ☕ So grab your coffee… and let’s kick off with 10 breakout ideas! 👇 Amazon (AMZN) No need for a long introduction here. When a member of the Magnificent Seven delivers a clean breakout, it’s a signal you don’t want to ignore. 📈 For those who regularly add to their Mag7 holdings or rotate between them monthly, Amazon would be my pick this time. While META’s recent correction isn’t a bad zone either, technically speaking, AMZN shows the stronger setup right now. ----------------------- Dell Technologies (DELL) Dell Technologies is one of the largest IT companies in the U.S., providing computers, servers, and cloud infrastructure solutions. Over recent quarters, Dell has gained solid momentum — especially from AI server demand, which helped lift margins thanks to its higher-value infrastructure products. Revenue also came in above expectations in the latest report, boosting investor confidence and pushing the stock to new highs. 📈 From a technical perspective, the breakout is clear: The $150 resistance, which had held for almost a year and a half, finally gave way in October. The structure is now open to the upside, and the chart shows clear strength. The decision is simple: enter now, wait for a deeper retest, or just keep it on your radar — your call. ----------------------- Nokia (OMXHEX: NOKIA) A few weeks ago, I mentioned that Nokia was setting up for a potential breakout, and look at that, it actually did. The company announced a collaboration with NVIDIA, which triggered the long-awaited move higher, breaking through its previous resistance zone. The €5.5 level mentioned earlier is now history, and the monthly close above it confirms the breakout’s validity. Whether you enter immediately, wait for a retest, or skip it because it doesn’t fit your style — again, your call. Technically valid! ----------------------- Steel Dynamics (STLD) Steel Dynamics ranks among the largest steel producers in the U.S., known for using recycled steel and low-emission production methods. With a P/E of 20 (forward ~12), the company benefits from U.S. infrastructure investments and the broader manufacturing uptrend. Recent quarterly results have been steady, the balance sheet is strong, and cash flow remains solid, supporting potential future growth. 📈 Technical setup: This chart checks every box of a classic breakout play: .......... 🧭 Full radar and extended notes are available on my main page — you’ll find it easily. All the best, Vaido
NASDAQ:AMZN
by VaidoVeek
4
Peak Tech Earnings Wrapped Up: Here Are the Winners and LosersWe're past that time when we all get glued to the dual-monitor setup and watch the titans of tech parade their financials. Last week was the Super Bowl of earnings season, with Meta NASDAQ:META , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN all reporting in the span of just a couple of days. The result? A mixed bag of profits, promises, and expenses, all revolving around the familiar AI growth story. Some soared. Others sank. And everyone was reminded that in Big Tech , growth costs money — a lot of it. Let’s unwrap what happened in the most influential week of the earnings calendar . 🥴 Meta: The Spending Spree Continues Meta NASDAQ:META suffered the most bruising showing. On paper, revenue looked great — $51.2 billion, up 26% year over year and above estimates. But earnings per share? A brutal $1.05, far below the expected $6.72, after a nearly $16 billion one-time charge tied to President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Without that charge, net income would’ve jumped to $18.6 billion. Instead, the headline number showed $2.7 billion — not exactly inspiring. But the real story wasn’t the miss. It was the spending. Meta now plans to splurge $71 billion this year, up from $69 billion, mainly on AI data centers and a hiring binge in its research division. The stock dropped 11% on Thursday. 🧠 Alphabet: Ads Strong, Cloud on Fire If Meta NASDAQ:META stumbled, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL strutted. The Google parent beat on everything : earnings per share at $2.87 vs. $2.26 expected and revenue hitting a record $102.3 billion, up 16% year on year. The company took a $3.5 billion fine from the European Commission — but even with that, margins looked healthy. Excluding the fine, the operating margin would’ve hit 33.9%. Not bad for a firm still making 85% of its money from ads. The real fireworks were in Google Cloud, where sales rose 34% and profit margins improved to 24% from 17% last year. Alphabet stock jumped 2.5% Thursday. 🧩 Microsoft: Cloudy with a Chance of Heavy Capex Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT delivered classic consistency — and then some. The company reported earnings per share of $4.13, beating estimates, on $77.7 billion in revenue. Azure, the star of the show, grew 40%, topping expectations. Yet shares dipped 3% the day after as investors fixated on capital spending. Microsoft shelled out $34.9 billion last quarter and warned that capex growth in 2026 will exceed 2025. 🍏 Apple: New Phone Who Dis? Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is back, everyone. The company posted record revenue of $102.5 billion , slightly above expectations, and hinted that the holiday quarter will be even juicier. CFO Kevan Parekh said sales could rise 10–12%, led by a “double-digit” surge in iPhone 17 upgrades. After years of lukewarm demand, Apple’s upgrade cycle looks hot again. One blemish: China sales dipped, underscoring the company’s ongoing battle in its second-largest market. But services revenue — now over $100 billion annually — continues to shine as Apple quietly transforms into a subscription empire disguised as a hardware company. The stock erased a 3% Friday gain to dip into the red. 🚀 Amazon: AI, Efficiency, and a Holiday Boom Then there was Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , the comeback kid of this earnings season. The e-commerce giant’s revenue soared 13% to $180 billion , and profit surged 39% to $21.2 billion. Solid. Amazon Web Services grew 20%, its fastest clip since 2022, as AI demand turned into real money. CEO Andy Jassy said data center expansion will remain a top priority heading into 2025. The company managed to sprinkle in some “efficiency” — laying off 14,000 employees, a move expected to cost $1.8 billion now but save plenty later. Amazon’s stock shot up 10% in pre-market Friday, and held on to the increase, proving that just a select few companies can pivot from layoffs to record profits with such finesse. 🧾 The Takeaway So, what did we learn from Peak Tech Week? America’s highflyers are spending big to secure their AI future. The underlying theme is that AI costs a fortune, but not investing in it could cost even more. In short — the future is bright, the bills are bigger, and the market’s message is clear: keep growing, but try not to spook traders while you do it. The earnings show continues with AMD NASDAQ:AMD and Palantir NASDAQ:PLTD reporting this week. Off to you : Are you looking to scoop up some NASDAQ:META or sell some NASDAQ:AMZN ? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
21
US500: Strong Upward Momentum Approaching 7000 LevelFundamental approach: - The US500 advanced this week, propelled by strong earnings momentum from tech giants and robust performance in select sectors. Among top movers, Qualcomm rose over 11% following upbeat earnings guidance, while Alphabet and Tesla also rallied ahead of their highly anticipated quarterly results. W.R. Berkley Corporation and Welltower Inc. were notable gainers, reflecting sector rotation and risk-on flows in the index. - Earnings from the 'Magnificent Seven', including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, drove sentiment, with over 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting results above consensus expectations so far this quarter. Tesla's performance was mixed, while Amazon is set to announce slightly lower profits, but the broader group is still outpacing the rest of the market in earnings growth. - Tech earnings and the upcoming FOMC decision are key catalysts that may influence future US500 moves. Broad sector participation and ongoing AI investment could sustain upward momentum if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. Technical approach: - US500 created a new all-time high this week after breaching the key level at around 6765. The index showed an urgency in moving upward, creating a gap that remains unfilled. US500 is well above the diverging EMAs, indicating a strong upward momentum. However, the index is approaching the upper bound of the ascending channel, which may limit the price movement. - If the current gap remains unfilled, the US500 may continue to move upward and test the psychological resistance at 7000. - On the contrary, rejecting the channel's upper bound may prompt a correction and fill the gap around 6790, retesting the broken level at 6765. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DatTong
SANTA RALLY OR BLACK FRIDAY ...... THOUGHTS?This is this weekend's whiteboard projections for the next 6months. This shows a slight reclaim this week but a continuation of lower highs and lower lows. Then a drop to the bottom of the narrower channel when China tariffs & rare earth restrictions are reflected in earnings guidance as Mag7 reports Q3 results. Dead cat bounce into Thanksgiving after the market pullback on guidance. Then only a Trump tweet can give us a Santa Rally, otherwise the other shoe falls and we get a Black Friday/Monday after Thanksgiving. Followed by a controlled selloff through Q4/Q1 earnings & poor guidance. Chart forecasts finding a bottom in April 2026. Please share your charts/forecasts into April 2026. (I am pretty new to this if you can't tell by my charts)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by cobra15999
1
EUR USD AUD NVDA MSFT AVGO S&P500 BTC XRP Weekly InsightsIn this video, we dive into the key market movements and outlooks for major financial instruments over the past week. Highlights include: Analysis of currency pairs: EUR/USD and AUD Trends and technical setups for leading tech stocks: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO The S&P 500’s performance and what it suggests about broader market direction Developments in cryptocurrency, with a focus on BTC and XRP Whether you’re a trader, investor, or just interested in macro markets, this video gives you a consolidated, data-driven snapshot of where things stand and what to watch next.
Short
by MartketsTitan
S&P Correction Window is official - VOLATILITY AHEADIt's that time of year where the pre-summer push wraps and the summer lull and potential pause gets underway. July 31 finished on a bit of a sour note with over 67% of stocks declining today and US indexes finishing RED despite the big gaps and bullish pops on MSFT and META post earnings.f SPX Key Levels -watch the 21 day moving average -watch the 50 day moving average -more dynamic support in the 100/144/200 moving average cluster I'll be taking bites at the 5/10/15% correction levels with options and looking for this dip to be bought by retail and institutions. Will August 1 US Tariff Deadline matter? After Japan and Eurozone came in and said a deal is being done, I was thinking this would be a dud. BUT, Dr. Copper says "maybe" on the global tariff deadline with the largest single day move in history (bearish). Being the perfect time of year for a correction (the other being Feb-Apr), and the technicals looking so clean for an orderly pullback, VIX may float higher and make things more interesting in the next 30-60 days. Strategies matter, I'll be trading risk defined, but there are great opportunities ahead. A pullback is sure better than literally watching all-time highs every single day. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
$MSFT: A Teflon stock turning hot, will it catch fire? Before you wonder why we call it a Teflon stock please check my blog on 27 April 2025. NASDAQ:MSFT : A 'Teflon' stock refusing to budge under pressure for NASDAQ:MSFT by RabishankarBiswal I pointed out the reason why this stock refused to go down below critical levels and held onto some impressive gains. And since then, we have rallied 33% from the lows of 360 and reached an ATH of 480 $. The buying pressure on the stock has pushed it above our upward sloping parallel channel which we have been following for more than 2 quarters. We always argued that the stock has support around 350 $ and is unlikely to break the support. We bounced back exactly 350 $ with 25 RSI indicating oversold conditions. Currently with stock price above 480 $ the RSI looks over bought at 73. But in my opinion the bull run can continue for some more time unless we see a double top in the RSI just like in 2022 and 2024. Double tops usually result in breakdown. But until then there is a lot of runway ahead of us. If we plot the Fib extension levels from the top before Liberation Day to the bottom after the liberation day, then we see that the next level on the chart is 1.612 Fib level with a price of 542 $. NASDAQ:MSFT is a Teflon stock which is hot but might not catch fire and go to the moon. 😊 Verdict: More potential upside in $MSFT. Near term target 542 $.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RabishankarBiswal
Nasdaq All-Time Highs, S&P Close, Blast Off or Breakdown?What an incredible melt-up since April 7 lows in the US markets. Trump vs Musk - ignored Iran vs Israel - ignored High Valuations - ignored FED Pausing - ignored The US economy is resilient and it's a good thing because the world is performing really well (EX-US). Europe/China/India/Emerging Markets are outperforming the US by 15-16% YTD The USD is having one its worst years ever in 2025 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin are great diversifiers in my opinion for 2025 Oil prices are incredibly volatile and energy stocks and commodities in turn are showing volatility and big swings As we near end of month and end of Q2, I have to believe the market is due for a small pause or pullback sooner rather than later - but we'll see Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
5
S&P Melt-Up, FOMC, Gold, Bitcoin - Key Levels and OutlooksHappy Saturday!!! I just finished a live roundtable session so charts and analysis was fresh on the mind. S&P just closed 9 consecutive days higher S&P Futures 9 green candles The melt-up has been slow and steady, but persistent Markets are now "repaired" back to or above the US Liberation Day break levels on April 2/April 3 I see some near-term resistance in the S&P with FOMC coming this week. There are some reasonable gaps lower for some pullbacks, but the PAIN trade persists. The "pain" trade now is higher highs because sentiment is so bearish. The "pain" trade if we see all-time highs would be a bull trap. FED is likely staying paused for May and June per the FED Watch Tool and the first rate cut may start in July 2025. But I'm watching US Yields to see if they persist higher because that may ruin the FED's plan and power and 40+ year correlations. Eyes wide open and small risk. Short-term strategies are doing well in this environment. I'll continue to grind. Thanks for watching!!!
CBOE:XSP
by ChrisPulver
$MSFT : A 'Teflon' stock refusing to budge under pressureI promised multiple times that a detailed analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT will be published. Its time, today we analyze the levels to watch for and the future price points in this stock. A large cap stock like NASDAQ:MSFT is a difficult ship to navigate. During the recent turbulence the stock lost almost 33% of its value. Even during these times, it never broke below the prior cycle highs of 345 $ in contrast to other MAG7 stocks like NASDAQ:TSLA which then led to more than 50% downturn in the stock. But as the headline says NASDAQ:MSFT is Teflon stock with resistance to go down. In the weekly chart we see that the stock never broke below the midpoint of the upward sloping regression band channel which is @ 375 $. Now where does the stock go from here? If we plot the Fib levels on NASDAQ:MSFT we see that it is firmly at 0.382 which lies at 392 $. Next level is at 415 $, and we have an earning catalyst upcoming for NASDAQ:MSFT and if the stock closes above 425 $ then we can easily touch 422 $. Verdict : NASDAQ:MSFT keep on DCAing. Earnings quality with low volatility.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RabishankarBiswal
$MAGS Repeating History? - Nasdaq Oscillator Flashes Caution📉 CBOE:MAGS (MAG 7 ETF) is showing striking similarities to its previous top, right before a 30% drop. Both price action and the Nasdaq Oscillator are echoing that same setup. 🔍 Key Observations: Price has rallied into a confluence of resistance near the previous breakdown zone. The Nasdaq Oscillator has returned to a historically high reading – the last time this happened, MAGS topped and dropped hard. A similar structure could suggest a -30% move, targeting the $32–$33 range. ⚠️ Caution: We’re in a potential bull trap zone. Unless we break cleanly above the red trendline and consolidate, this rally may be short-lived. 🧠 Smart money may already be unloading into this strength.
CBOE:MAGSShort
by SmartSignalss
MAG7 MODEL Rally is going to be in the form of ABC up The chart posted is the Mag 7 .I feel strong that the super cycle Top in the mag 7 was seen like January 2000 in the internet Bubble . I am counting a clean 5 waves down and see a strong ABC rally phase like that in 2000 then we dropped about 30% in the first leg down followed by a huge Bearish rally back up first leg up moved to the 50% retracement and then had a abc down for wave b of B to be followed up to .618 of the decline to form THE B Wave TOP . I am looking forward in my work and my models to see a near prefect rematch in the formation . I stated in my dec 8th forecast How the market will unfold based on the Wave structure and cycles and the DATA . We are now set for that abc rally . next turn date in spirals in 3/28 best of trades WAVETIMER
CBOE:MAGS
by wavetimer
$NAS100 approaching correction territoryWe are again back from a short winter flu. I think the index NASDAQ100 is also coughing showing signs of a flu. Pun indented.  The tech heavy NASADQ100 does not look particularly healthy on a daily and weekly basis. In this weekly chart we can see that even if we find ourselves in the structural bull market the index has lost more than 5% from its peak. The internally also do not look good with MIL:MAG7 also bleeding and off their peaks. The PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is almost approaching its 200-Day SMA. If the index loses another 3 % then it will land @ the 200 Day SMA which it @ 20200. In the upcoming weeks there are multiple events which might put pressure on the indexes. We have tariffs upcoming on Tuesday and we must watch out for the inflation and unemployment numbers. But we must also look at the other side of the coin. A 10% pull back is normal in a secular bull market. In all the bull markets this kind of skittishness is normal. In my assessment PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 will be a good buy @ 200 Day SMA. My lowest level in this small correction phase is 19000 which is 0.618 Fib Retracement level on the upward sloping Fib channel I have plotted and an indicative of a secular bull market. I will keep visiting this chart in the future. Accumulate PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 between 20200 and 19000.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100
by RabishankarBiswal
AAPL 1.22.2025 IdeaMy assessment is a fair price on the stock of $230 per share. AAPL now sitting at $222.5, I believe there is a high probability for a 5% up move within a few months. Entry would be favorable if AAPL =< $220. I would enter direct shares here. AAPL is of those companies that will be affected by tariffs. However, AAPL has benefitted from expanding its services economy. In other words, AAPL is not reliant on iPhone sales to drive their FCF. This opportunity is one for those looking for a discount on a MAG 7. Just be patient! But be flexible and anticipate further disruptions.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by SRNceo
NASDAQ: Key Support at 21,500 Poised to Propel a Rally Toward 22Looking at the chart, the 21,500 level is a strong support zone as it aligns with previous bullish positions and significant volume activity. This support could act as a solid base for a potential upward move toward the 22,000 resistance level. Key Observations: 21,500 Support Zone: Historical bullish activity suggests buyers are actively defending this area. The price has bounced from this level, reinforcing its strength. Volume Profile: Heavy volume concentration near the support indicates strong interest in this region. Limited resistance zones between 21,500 and 22,000 support the case for a move upward. Target Resistance: 22,000 is a psychological and technical resistance level. Reaching this level would require sustaining bullish momentum above 21,500. If the price remains above 21,500, it could fuel a bullish rally toward 22,000, assuming no external bearish factors interfere. Monitoring price action near these levels is crucial for trade planning.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by BIGonTRADING
Nasdaq 100 Index - outlook for Q1 2025Since the beginning of 2024, the Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 28.83%, leaving the broader market, like the S&P 500, in the dust. In the long term, the chart screams bullish, with the one-month view suggesting a strong buy. Yet, the recent trading sessions have seen some cooling off, a typical holiday lull as traders and investors take a break. The Nasdaq peaked at 22,174 on December 16, 2024, and since then, making higher highs has been a struggle. This hesitation can be chalked up to uncertainty around the U.S. interest rate policy for 2025. At the same time, there was a flurry of buying activity when the Nasdaq hovered near its 50-day moving average, around the 21,000 mark. This suggests that investors see this level as a sweet spot for picking up shares, possibly viewing it as a solid support line amidst all the market noise. Currently, I see no clarity in the Index's direction for the near term. If we hear hawkish news from the Fed and Trump's policy in January, the stock market could deepen. At the same time, earnings reports from the MAG7 and their guidance for the year 2025 will play a pivotal role in the Index's direction.
NASDAQ:NDX
by appirik
He wasn't dead, he was just catching his breath.After a monstrous rise, the time came to catch his breath and prepare for a new year of ups and downs, but most importantly, to consolidate at this level. Before falling, our goal was to reach $169. Based on the current formations, everything seems to indicate that the trend continues. We must observe how an expanding wedge concludes at $155, followed by other patterns at $161, and finally, a very old one at $169 USD. Don't forget that NVDA is partnering with GOOGL on a groundbreaking quantum chip, a revolutionary development that is set to transform computation over the next decade.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AllAboutMoney
MAG7 breaks to new highs with the NAS100 outperforming The reaction in markets is what interests the most, and on the day, despite US Treasuries finding form, we’ve seen broad USD strength, the S&P500 has pushed to its 55th new all-time high in 2024, while gold and crude are largely unchanged. We also see sizeable dispersions in the daily returns in the crypto space, with XRP and Chainlink arguable the standout plays, with 23% and 41% gains respectively on the day. In the volatility (vol) space, we see the VIX trading lower at 13.5% - the lowest level since July and at levels more aligned with S&P500 20-day realised vol. Equity hedges have been unwound, which speaks to a market confident of a grind higher into year-end. Another way to visualise the subdued equity vol is in the daily high-low trading ranges, and on the day the S&P500 has tracked a meagre 18-handle range – one of the lowest high-low ranges of the year, and well below the 5-day average of 34-handles. Removing downside hedges makes sense given the largest drawdown in the S&P500 in Q4 has been 3.1%, and hedges cost money and subtract from performance if equity is moving higher. On the day we’ve seen a solid bid in comms services names (Meta & Alphabet), tech and consumer discretionary – said another way, the MAG7 index (+1.9%) has broken out to a new ATH, with all 7 MAG7 constituents rising on the day. Microsoft and Meta would be my picks that lead us higher from here, with MSFT filling the gap from the 31 Oct, where a break of $432.23 would suggest a continuation rally into $440. Naturally, when tech and the big discretionary plays are firing up, it’s the NAS100 which has outperformed, and we see NAS100 futures 120p from testing the former ATH at 21,340. We’ve seen solid moves in European equity too, and notably in the German DAX which is in beast mode and doing everything right technically – happy to hold longs here until the index has a daily close below the 5-day EMA. French equity is the exception, with the CAC40 closing unchanged, which is quite a solid result given the brewing political angst. Certainly, we’ve seen the political risk expressed in the EUR, which is lower on the day against all G10 currencies, and notably vs the JPY and USD. We can add negative revisions to the French and German manufacturing PMIs, which make for sobering viewing, and the upshot has been broad EUR selling. EURUSD hit a low of 1.0461 before the buyers stepped in – we can attribute a degree of the move lower to an improved US ISM manufacturing report (at 48.4 vs 47.5 eyed), although we did see some modest USD selling late in the session as Fed gov Waller signalled that he is leaning on a December rate cut and that rates are still “some distance from neutral”. US interest rate swaps now price at 79% chance the Fed cut by 25bp on 18 Dec. Equity and bond vol may be headed lower, but FX vol is alive and well with EURUSD 1-month implied vol at 8.66% and the 92nd percentile of the 12-month range. Buying EUR vol certainly made sense given the uncertainty of the ECBs (and the Fed’s) next move and the French political risk premium. CAD vols also screen well, with options traders seeing increased movement in USDCAD and AUDCAD. On the subject of movement, we can always find it in the crypto markets, and while Bitcoin (-2.5%) and Ethereum (-2.7%) take a backseat, it’s XRP that’s getting the lion’s share of trader attention with its punchy 23% rally on the day. The daily chart looks ridiculous and highlights the explosive 450% gain seen since the US election. XRP Volumes are tracking north of SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on the day, which is higher than what’s traded on BTC, with the gains taking its market cap to $134b – the third biggest coin in the crypto sphere. Grossly overbought, and with a 10-day volatility of 150%, chasing XRP upside from here comes with significant risk and the fact I’m focused on it suggests we’ve likely hit peak sentiment – but as know what is overbought can stay overbought for some time. Looking ahead, we see a largely positive open for Asia with the ASX200 set to outperform with the index set to open nicely above 8500 and to new highs. Event risk in the session ahead comes in on the light side, with Swiss CPI and US Job openings (JOLTS) the key events on the radar.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone