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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚀 Tech & EV Stocks in Focus Ahead of Earnings Futures were quiet ahead of Tuesday’s open, but key movers included Astera Labs (+19%), Alphabet (+2.7%), Netflix +2%, and Robinhood –4.9% after being passed over for the S&P 500. Investors are positioning ahead of major tech and EV earnings this week — including Tesla, Alphabet, Lockheed Martin, Coca‑Cola, and Honeywell 📣 Powell Speech Eyed for Rate Clues Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 8:30 AM ET today at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in D.C. Markets will be watching for any indications on future interest rate direction 🌏 Japan’s Political Shift Has Little Market Impact Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority over the weekend, but markets remained stable as it was largely expected. The yen held steady, and Asian equities stayed calm amid the holiday—focus remains on upcoming corporate earnings 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 22: 8:30 AM ET – Powell Speech: Key address at the bank regulation conference. Tone and forward guidance may sway bond and equity markets. After Market Close – Alphabet & Tesla Earnings: Heavyweights due today—market attention will track revenue guidance, especially on advertising, EV demand, and AI. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice—consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tech #Fed #earnings #AI #infrastructure #volatility
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Chair Powell Speaks — Markets Key Into Tone Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the week’s centerpiece. Markets will be closely listening for clues on inflation strategy, rate-cut timing, and sensitivity to geopolitical inflation drivers like tariffs. 📦 Tariff Deadlines Gain Spotlight Multiple tariff deadlines are set this week for targeted trade partners including the EU, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Any new announcements or extensions could trigger volatility in trade-exposed sectors. 🛢️ Oil Market Mixed Signals Brent crude prices have stabilized near mid-$70s, but OPEC+ discussions regarding supply extensions and global growth concerns continue to inject uncertainty into energy-linked equities. 📈 Big Tech Earnings Kick Off The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants begin reporting: Nvidia leads on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta later in the week. Expect significant sentiment swings based on forward commentary. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 21 Quiet session ahead of a packed week of speeches and data. 📅 Tuesday, July 22 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June): Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes—a key housing indicator. After Market Close – Nvidia Q2 Earnings: Market will watch guidance and China commentary. 📅 Wednesday, July 23 8:30 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (June): An early gauge of U.S. economic momentum. 📅 Thursday, July 24 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Labor-market health indicator. 📅 Friday, July 25 8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June): Signals demand for long-lasting goods, often driven by business spending. 8:30 AM ET – New Home Sales (June): Follows existing home data for housing sector insight. 4:00 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole: Expect commentary on inflation, growth, and rate-path clarity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #housing #durablegoods #JacksonHole #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏢 U.S. Corp Buybacks Set to Propel Stocks Citadel Securities expects U.S. companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of stock in 2025. With the blackout period ending in August, buybacks—historically strong in July, the stock market’s best month—could bolster valuations ⚖️ Fed Independence Debate Intensifies President Trump’s continued criticism of Chair Powell has already weakened confidence in Federal Reserve autonomy. The fallout shows up in a weaker dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations—though stocks have remained resilient 🇺🇸 Immigration Rollback Sparks Economic Concern The rescinding of Temporary Protected Status for ~900,000 immigrants could remove up to 1.1 million workers from the labor force. Analysts warn of potential stagflation risks, with GDP growth potentially down 0.3–0.4 percentage points and labor-market tightening ahead 💵 Massive T-Bill Issuance Incoming Following the debt-ceiling deal, the Treasury plans over $1 trillion in T-bill issuance in the next 18 months. Money-market funds are expected to absorb much of it, influencing short-term rates and cash-market dynamics 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, July 19: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims Weekly figure on new unemployment filings—a real-time indicator of labor-market resilience. 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June) Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes; key for gauging housing-market health. All Day Events: Ongoing corporate buybacks entering open window Treasury auctions and T-bill issuance updates ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #monetarypolicy #debt #housing #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇮🇳 India–U.S. Inflation Divergence Dampens Dollar India’s June retail inflation tumbled to a six-year low, while U.S. CPI hit its fastest pace since February—driven by tariff effects. This divergence is weakening the U.S. dollar against the rupee, pushing down dollar‑rupee forward premiums 📜 Treasury to Ramp Up T-Bill Issuance Following the recent debt-ceiling increase, the U.S. Treasury plans to issue over $1 trillion in T-bills over the next 18 months. Money-market funds, flush with cash, are expected to absorb the supply, which could influence short-dated yields 💱 Dollar Eases Amid Fed-Related Volatility Headline news that President Trump “highly unlikely” to fire Fed Chair Powell, coupled with stable PPI data, calmed markets. The dollar dipped slightly after earlier turmoil, while gold and bonds saw modest gains 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 17: (No major U.S. economic releases) Markets will track T-bill issuance plans, dollar forward dynamics, and statements from the Treasury and Fed regarding debt and rate strategy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #dollar #tbills #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits ⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy 🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs 📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 16: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1% 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June) Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health Jensen Huang in Beijing Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors ⚠️ Disclaimer: This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 Dow Futures Dip on New Tariff Announcements President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, with additional duties on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures each slipped ~0.3% as markets assess inflation risk ahead of key CPI data this week 📈 Tech & AI Stocks Lead Despite Tariffs Stocks like Circle (+9.3%), CoreWeave (+5.2%), Palantir (+5%), Roblox (+5.8%), and Shopify (+4.1%) surged, showcasing sector resilience amid broader tariff fears ⚠️ Deutsche Bank Warns of Summer Volatility With thin market liquidity and rising geopolitical tension (tariff deadline Aug 1), Deutsche Bank flags summer as a period prone to sudden corrections 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 15: 8:30 AM ET – CPI (June) Core CPI is projected at +0.3% MoM (2.7% YoY) and headline CPI +0.3% MoM—signs tariff effects may be feeding into prices 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) Expected to come in around 3.0% YoY. 8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Forecast: –7.8 (less negative than June’s –16.0) — a modest sign of stabilizing factory conditions Fed Speakers Throughout the Day Watch for commentary from Fed officials (Michael Barr, Barkin, Collins, Logan) for fresh insights on inflation and monetary policy ⚠️ Market Interpretation: Inflation Watch: A hotter-than-expected CPI could delay anticipated rate cuts and lift yields. A pick-up in core CPI above 3% would be a red flag. Growth Signals: A less-negative Empire State reading may suggest improving industrial momentum but still signals contraction. Political Risk: Tariff escalation could shift investor appetite, even if markets right now are focusing on broader macro narratives. Volatility Setup: The combination of thin liquidity, tariff uncertainty, and critical data makes for a potentially choppy week. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #inflation #tariffs #Fed #CPI #manufacturing #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P500 Slips Ahead of CPI & Earnings SeasonEquities began the week under pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5%, slipping below the 6,230-resistance area. Although the Fed minutes released last week indicate that most members are open to cutting rates this year, inflation data and second-quarter earnings could change that trajectory. Upcoming Events to Watch: • CPI Release (Tuesday 14:30 SAST): A cooler-than-expected print would support a breakout in risk assets. A hot reading could shift expectations toward policy tightening, weighing on equities. • Q2 Earnings Season: Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report this week. Strong earnings may cushion the market, while any weakness could exacerbate volatility. S&P500 Technical View: • Immediate Resistance: 6,230 • Potential Upside: A cooler CPI could see the index rally toward 6,290. • Support Levels: Should inflation surprise to the upside, the index may slide to 6,190, or even 6,150 in extended selling.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by FDGCapital
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 ⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge 📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process 🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings season begins with JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ), Goldman Sachs ( NYSE:GS ), Wells Fargo ( NYSE:WFC ), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials 📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation ⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 14 Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings. 📅 Tuesday, July 15 8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June) Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial. 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) 10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Early view on Northeast factory trends. 📅 Wednesday, July 16 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends. 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June) 📅 Thursday, July 17 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling. 📅 Friday, July 18 10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #inflation #earnings #Fed #CPI #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
After 45% Profit On Last Trade, I Am Re-entering UMACTrading Family, On our stock trades, using my new liquidity indicator, we have been solidly beating the market with a cool 15% profit since our first trade with it. If you had held the SPY from the same time, your profit would have been a more meager 6.5%. Our indicator is proving beneficial, to say the least. And the last time it gave me a buy signal on UMAC, we banked 45% in profit on my last exit. I then determined that if it did not give me a sell signal (it hasn't), I would look to re-enter at that 7.66 level. We have reached that level, and I have dipped my toes back in at 7.94. I would look to double up my position if we drop even further to that 6.44 level, but I don't know that we will. My target of 11.76 will give us another 48% profit on this trade, and I have a SL set at 6.18 for a nice 2.17 rrr. Let's go! Stew
AMEX:UMACLong
by stewdamus
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Global Banks Profit from Tariff Volatility Major banks like JPMorgan, BofA, and Citigroup are expected to see ~10% growth in trading revenue in Q2, fueled by volatility from President Trump’s tariff policy shifts. Treasury trading volumes hit record highs as markets priced in policy swings 📈 S&P 500 Nears Lull Amid Bull Market Strains Despite record highs in 2025, investors are warning that the rally may be reaching its limit. Bullish sentiment is strong, but analysts caution that sluggish consumer spending, rising inflation from tariffs, and few rate-cut signals from the Fed could cap downside momentum 🐻 Bear Case Gains Ground Stifel’s Barry Bannister projected a potential ~12% correction in the second half of 2025. Key risks include slowing consumer spending, weak capital investment under tariff uncertainty, and persistent core inflation above 3%, negatively impacting earnings and growth outlooks ⚖️ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Could Add Trillions in Debt The new fiscal package signed July 4 will add $3–4 trillion to national debt over the next decade while extending tax cuts and revising EV incentives. Bond market and Fed policy implications may become more pronounced if growth fails to keep pace 📊 Stocks vs Bonds: Diverging Signals While equities climb and megacaps extend gains, Treasury yields have risen five days straight—signaling growing caution over real growth prospects. The yield curve steepening hints at mixed signals: growth optimism in stocks, but bond market signaling economic risk ahead 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Thursday, July 10: No major scheduled economic releases. Markets remain driven by tariff headlines, bank earnings reactions, and evolving Fed signals. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #marketvolatility #tariffs #banks #Fed #debt #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 Tariff Pause Extended to August 1 President Trump delayed the July 9 tariff deadline, pushing negotiations into early August. Markets reacted with muted volatility, suggesting growing comfort that deals will be struck—yet widespread uncertainty remains 💵 Junk Bonds Rally Amid Tariff Tangling Despite ongoing tariff risks, investors are doubling down on U.S. high-yield (junk) bonds. They anticipate the Fed may refrain from tightening further—favoring spread-tightening to around 7–8% yields—reflecting confidence in credit quality 🏦 Fed Faces Tough Call on Rate Path New business surveys show conflicting signals: mixed revenue outlooks, cautious spending, and ongoing tariff pressures. The Fed must weigh slower growth against inflationary risks—keeping the door open to rate cuts in the autumn but unlikely before September 📊 Equities Firm Amid Tariff Uncertainty Stocks showed resilience—S&P 500 and futures held position—after Monday’s tariff-triggered dip. Dip-buying and expectations of extended trade talks kept markets steady despite policy noise 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 9: All Day – Ongoing U.S.–tariff negotiations; markets focused on any progress toward formal deal-making or extension terms. Midday – Watch for headlines on tariff letters to 14 countries and any movement in trade discussions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #fixedincome #credit #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Macro Moves & Market Reversals: BTC-Metals-Tech-Dollar & more! 🤖📊 Macro Moves & Market Reversals: Bitcoin, Metals, Tech, Dollar & DAX Breakdown 🔥💹 Hey beautiful people, FXPROFESSOR here with a massive market update to kick off the week. This one’s for my serious traders—those of you ready to read the market like a pro 📚💡 We’re in a critical transition. The Trump–Powell standoff, rate cut games, tariff escalations, and a surprising shift in risk appetite across bonds, metals, and equities are reshaping the entire trading landscape. Let’s get into the full breakdown 👇 🧠 MACRO FIRST – THE FUNDAMENTAL PULSE 🟢 Interest Rates: The Fed is keeping rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing strong jobs data. 147K jobs added, unemployment at 4.1%. The market wanted bad news for rate cuts... didn’t get it. 🗓 September remains the most likely cut, but the Fed isn’t rushing. Strong labor = slow policy change. ⚠️ Tariffs Heating Up: Trump just slapped 25–40% tariffs on imports from Japan, Korea, and others – effective August 1. ➡️ If no political resolution by July 9, prepare for a volatility wave. Tariffs = supply chain risks + cost-push inflation. 💣 Geopolitics: Middle East tensions remain background noise, but no major disruptions for now. Still, oil remains sensitive. 📈 Risk Appetite (Bonds): U.S. Treasuries still lagging, but junk bonds and quality credit (LQD) have pumped. That’s a big clue: risk appetite is returning, even without a Fed pivot. 📉 DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – "THE YEAR OF THE NORMALIZED DOLLAR" We’ve followed this dollar short all year. 🔻 From rejection at 100.965, DXY dropped straight into our long-term 94–95 target zone. 📌 Now what? This level is MAJOR. A bounce could trap dollar bears. 🧭 No new short from me unless we re-tag 100+. The juice is squeezed. Key takeaway: The dollar already priced in rate cuts, and we didn’t even get them. That’s telling me the next macro move might not be so predictable. 💰 BITCOIN – STILL THE KING 📍 BTC at $115K resistance – a level I’ve charted for years, not weeks. Three hits: 1️⃣ First rejection 2️⃣ Second rejection 3️⃣ And now... a decisive moment 🚨 Break 115K → BTC flies. 📉 Fail here → we could revisit $64K, yes, seriously. I’m ready for both outcomes. This is not the time for hopium. It’s 50/50. 🪙 BTC DOMINANCE – THE ALTCOIN SWITCH BTC.D is now above 65%. That means: ✔️ Capital flowing back into BTC ❌ Altcoins not ready yet We don’t chase alts until BTC.D hits 71.3–72.9%. That’s the real “altseason trigger zone.” 🔒 I’m personally turned off from alts for now—too much noise, too many memes, not enough macro support. 🔩 PRECIOUS METALS – SHINING BRIGHT 💛 Gold (XAU/USD): Reached near $3,500 highs Now stalling 🛑 Taking profits here – caution warranted. 🤍 Silver (XAG/USD): 13-year high Holding $36+ well Potential breakout pending global inflation data 💿 Platinum (the sleeper): +47% YTD Beautiful long setup played out exactly as planned Still bullish above $1,400 if supply squeeze continues 💡 ETFs in metals are seeing inflows – more institutions hedging as dollar weakens. 🚗🔌 TECH STOCKS – NVDA, TSLA & THE NASDAQ 📈 NVIDIA (NVDA) Best trade of the year for me Clean re-entry, now hitting ATH levels AI demand + tight supply = rocket fuel ⚡ Tesla (TSLA) Bounce off 4H trendline Still lagging slightly – political tensions (Trump vs. Musk) not helping But levels are working like a charm 📊 NASDAQ (QQQ) Hit our “max pain” zone perfectly Rebounded with textbook precision Momentum intact – watching for new highs 🇩🇪 DAX INDEX – CHARTS DON’T LIE All-time high. Boom. Called it weeks ago. Despite: No Russian energy Industrial drag ECB policy constraints 📌 But what worked? ➡️ Simple chart structure. ➡️ Market psychology. ➡️ Pure TA. Now at resistance again. Watch carefully – support below is clearly defined. 🧾 FINAL THOUGHTS – THE PROFESSOR'S NOTES 🔹 The market’s narrative can change fast, especially with Trump in the mix. He’s Mr. Volatility. 🔹 Powell holds the real power – and right now, he’s not flinching. 🔹 Risk appetite is back – but not evenly. Bitcoin is leading, altcoins are lagging, metals are maturing. 🔹 If rate cuts materialize in September, expect massive rotation across all risk assets. 💭 Until then, I’m playing level-to-level. No FOMO. Just charts and logic. That’s how we survive, and thrive. Let me know which chart you want next – and thank you for staying sharp 💪📚 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Stocks Slip on New Tariff Threats President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1, reigniting trade jitters. The Dow fell ~0.9%, the S&P 500 dropped ~0.8%, and the Nasdaq slid ~0.9% on the news, while bond futures rallied and the dollar strengthened ⚖️ Tariff Pause Deadline Looms Markets are focused on the July 9 deadline for the current tariff pause, which now hinges on imminent trade negotiations. Investors are balancing the risk of reimposition against progress with agreements involving the U.K., Vietnam, and Canada 💵 Consumer Credit Moderates June’s consumer credit increase slowed to $10.60 billion vs. April’s $17.87 billion—still strong, but a cooling sign in household borrowing patterns. This tempered the dollar’s rise amid mixed signals on consumer resilience. 🛢️ Oil Drops on Rising OPEC+ Supply Oil prices fell, with Brent dipping to ~$68.00/barrel and WTI to ~$65.30, after confirmation of OPEC+’s August supply hike—adding to bearish cues for energy stocks . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 8: 3:00 PM ET – Consumer Credit (June) Moderation in borrowing signals possible easing in consumer-driven growth. 4:30 PM ET – API Weekly Crude Inventories A key indicator for energy markets; lower inventories lift oil prices, while builds push them down. Throughout the Day – Tariff Pause Deadline Market stability hinges on whether trade agreements materialize before the break expires. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #consumercredit #oil #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 7–11, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 7–11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 📈 From Panic to "Goldilocks" Rally The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs, surging ~20% from April lows. Markets rallied on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, the 90‑day tariff pause, a new fiscal bill in Washington, and strong June jobs data. Still, strategists caution that optimism may be ahead of fundamentals, especially if trade volatility returns 💱 Dollar Weakness & Bond Market Watch The U.S. dollar remains near 3.5‑year lows amid rate‑cut speculation and trade progress. Treasury yields are volatile this week, impacted by concerns over escalating debt issuance, upcoming tariff deadlines (July 9), and the Federal Reserve’s stance . 🏢 Tech Leadership Shifts With the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks near heights, growth is spreading: cyclical sectors, small‑caps, and industrials are gaining momentum. AI remains the primary engine, but resilience across a broader stock base is signaling a potentially sustainable rally ⚠️ Tariff Truce Deadline Looms (July 9) The April tariff pause expires mid‑week. U.S. plans to extend exemptions via trade talks with partners like UK, Vietnam, and Canada—yet any delay or failure may shock markets. Watch for headlines that may trigger spillover effects . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 7: Independence Day markets resume. Light trading expected ahead of data and tariff deadline. 📅 Tuesday, July 8: 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Credit (June) Gauges borrowing trends—an indicator of household health in a low‑rate environment. 📅 Wednesday, July 9: EIA Crude Oil Inventories & MBA Mortgage Apps & Wholesale Inventories Key mid‑week data points; oil builds may pressure energy stocks. Tariff Pause Deadline – Expect market volatility on news of extension or reimposition. 📅 Thursday, July 10: 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET – Natural Gas Inventories Markets focus on labor health and energy trends. 📅 Friday, July 11: 10:00 AM ET – Treasury Budget Statement Details on government borrowing and fiscal outlook—markets sensitive to deficit risks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: These insights are for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investing decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #tariffs #Fed #AI #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - Daily Price Uptrend, Resistance Breakout TestBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been in a recent Daily price Uptrend, rallying up from the $100,000 price support level. A SMA Golden Cross printed on May 21st, 2025. Bitcoin price is attempting a resistance zone test and has yet to breakout and hold above the $111,000 to $112,000 price zone. Resistance levels: $110,000 , $112,000 , $117,000 , $121,000. Support levels: $108,000 , $107,000 , $105,000 , $104,000 , $100,000. Recent crypto industry, government legislation news, and institutional crypto purchases have helped to keep Bitcoin price above $100,000 support. Stock market correlation volatility could also affect the crypto market and prices for the next 30 to 45 days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by NoFomoCharts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet 📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers 💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, July 3: 8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June): Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown. 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts. 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures. 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions. 9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash): Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash): Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors. The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent. Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
INDEX:NKYShort
by UDIS_View
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May—still in contraction territory. Tariff-induced uncertainty and rising input costs continue to weigh on factory activity, with new orders still weak and employment contracting 📈 Global Factory Rebound Led by India & Europe While U.S. factories struggle, India hit a 14-month high in its manufacturing PMI at 58.4, and euro‑zone factory orders stabilized at 49.5—the first sign of recovery in over three years. Asia-Europe divergence may shift global capital flows . 🏦 Powell Says Tariffs Are Delaying Rate Cuts Fed Chair Powell warned at the ECB forum in Sintra that elevated inflation—driven in part by Trump-era tariffs—has postponed the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. The Fed’s dot-plot now indicates only two cuts for 2025, with markets adjusting accordingly 💵 Dollar Nears 3½-Year Lows The U.S. dollar weakened further, trading near a three-and-a-half-year low amid soft PMI data, a dovish Fed tilt, and renewed optimism over U.S.–Canada trade talks 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 2: (No major scheduled U.S. economic data) Market focus shifts to upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3, Powell's remarks, and trade-talk headlines. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #manufacturing #Fed #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P 500 Outlook. Best Quarter Since 2023… But What Next?The S&P 500 just logged its best quarterly performance since Q4 2023 , surging on optimism around global trade negotiations and growing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as September. US futures are green this morning, thanks to developments like Canada backing off digital taxes, ongoing dialogues with China ahead of the July 9 deadline, and risk-on sentiment is pushing yields and the dollar lower. But as traders, we need to ask: Are we witnessing a genuine economic inflection point? Or is this just a liquidity-driven rally that’s pricing in a best-case scenario? Technical View Support Zone: 6,150 was just broken through. And 6000, the round number level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and previous swing level. Resistance Levels: 6,235 is the next critical ceiling, a clean breakout could see price reach the extension level of 6,415. Momentum Indicators: RSI remains elevated and is creeping toward the overbought. While momentum is strong, watch out for the possible development of a divergence. Possible Scenarios The 'Soft Landing’ Is Now the Base Case Markets are trading as if the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. But that’s now fully priced in, and historically, the most dangerous trades are the ones everyone agrees on. If trade talks stall, inflation re-accelerates, or earnings disappoint, the reversal could be brutal and fast. Risk-on Sentiment Without Volume Is a Yellow Flag Despite the price strength, volume has been tapering off. The S&P’s recent leg up occurred on lighter-than-average participation, suggesting institutions may be watching, not chasing. That’s often the case in low-volatility summers, but it also implies that any negative catalyst could cause outsized downside moves. Macro-Fundamentals May Not Justify Valuation Expansion Yes, inflation is slowing, and the Fed might cut. But if they do, it’s likely because growth is weakening, not because the economy is roaring. So the very condition that triggers rate cuts could also cap earnings growth! Projection Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 6,280 could carry us toward 6,400–6,500 by mid-Q3, especially if the trade deals progress, July inflation comes in soft, and the Fed signals accommodation. Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 6,120, especially if trade optimism fades, or inflation growth spikes or Fed rhetoric shifts hawkish again, this could then open a quick pullback toward 6,000 or lower, which also aligns with the 50-day SMA. Key Events to Watch July 9 Trade Talks Deadline: Any sign of stalling could bring volatility back fast. June CPI Print (July 10): Crucial for confirming the Fed's next move. Earnings Season Kickoff (mid-July): Tech-heavy expectations may not be easy to beat after such a strong run. Conclusion A record-setting quarter is impressive but not necessarily predictive. This quarter’s rally has been built more on relief and expectations than hard data. When expectations (not earnings) are doing the heavy lifting, any misstep from central banks or geopolitics could unravel gains rapidly. A rate cut might be delayed, or inflation re-accelerates, or trade talks stall; any of these could leave equities hanging. Remember: the higher the climb without real earnings growth, the harder the fall when sentiment shifts. It's not just about the chart. It is about the narrative behind the price. What’s your bias for Q3? Are you buying this breakout or fading the optimism? Drop your thoughts below.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Core Inflation Edges Higher May’s core inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, casting uncertainty over the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts. While headline CPI sits at 2.3%, the resilience in underlying prices complicates policymakers’ projections for later this year 💵 Weak Dollar, Rising Rate-Cut Bets Markets are reacting to “summertime data”—like the core CPI uptick—with renewed optimism. Traders now see up to 75 bps in Fed rate cuts later this year, while the dollar remains near 3½-year lows on concerns about Powell’s independence and trade developments 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Resume Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada restarted today, following Ottawa’s suspension of its digital-services tax. Progress toward a broader agreement could reduce tariff risk and offer further relief to risk assets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 1: All Day – U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Markets will watch for updates on tariff resolution and broader trade deals. Any breakthrough could notably boost equities and improve trade sentiment. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) A below-50 reading again would reinforce the narrative of industrial weakness. A rebound could support equities and temper recession concerns 10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (May) Still at elevated levels (~7.39 million in April), this metric assesses labor-market resilience. A decline could shift rate-cut expectations. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Elliott Wave StructureIn this video, we analyze the weekly chart of Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT ) using Elliott Wave theory. The current structure suggests the beginning of a new bullish impulse (waves 0, 1, and 2) following a clearly completed and technically correct corrective phase. We explore potential impulsive scenarios starting from wave 2, using Fibonacci extensions to project possible targets and identifying key support zones and invalidation levels. This analysis aims to provide a macro perspective based on price action, helpful for traders and investors following BTC from a medium- to long-term technical view. 🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own trading decisions.
Long
by Zky17