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GOLD: XAUUSD All about the dollar nowGold/USDollar XAUUSD It's all about the dollar for now Sometimes gold is a fabulous market to trade - when it gets itself in a trend that traders can see glinting at them off their screens the impulse waves it goes on to form are some of the best in any market (except Brent Crude which wins top spot for powerful, tradeable impulse waves, see today's comment)Right now is not one of those golden moments. Gold is a really difficult, choppy market, great for day traders but not so good for swingers. The first point is to recognise that with no real wave to power it gold is consequently aimless, taking a random walk on a northward bearing and very much against its will, judging by the pin bars studding the uncertain zone between the 3 blue lines on the chart. It's now powered from underneath by ongoing dollar weakness from here, (see DXY comment today). You can see from the chart that gold doesn't really want to go up, that traders are pretty bearish, or certainly were until DXY fell out of bed in London this morning...But DXY is already testing the first target at 93.99 after a low at 93.97 and should make a feeble rally (as per comment) before falling away again. Once 93.97 gives way on DXY It should fall to to 92.6 at least, so another 1.5% from here. Look to buy dips in gold (and if you're experienced you'll already be using DXY chart as confirmation of when to distribute and when to accumulate) because with at least 1.5% and quite possibly 3% to come in dollar weakness gold will keep defying the bears over the next few weeks. It's on support right now at 1278 and unlikely now to dip much lower. Only on a break below the trend line supporting the recent lows will the underlying resilience of gold be shattered - a fabulous downtrend should re-emerge as a consequence, driving price down to 1205. But until that happens, it's tricky. No trend except a seemingly grudging reaction upwards to dollar weakness. Go with it for now. No point in fighting this yet. And if you're looking to trade a trending market right now, try Brent (or check today's comment). They don't call it sweet crude for nothing.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
Dash/Dollar DASHUSD Reverse head and Shoulders with more upside DASH/DOLLAR DASHUSD Reverse head and shoulders with minimum upside target at 464. It's then morphed into what looks like a continuation pattern from September through early November, with a beautiful pin bar from the right shoulder ...which is itself the head of a tiny final reverse H&S - before Dash explodes northwards on aggressive buying interest. And on today's daily chart the low comes back to test the upper parallel for one last fleeting kiss. That's some classic price action. Lots of excellent patterns hiding in the noise. Should push on to 400 and later to 464. Very near term it may form a little flag - whatever it does will likely be pretty! - before it goes again. Time, as always, will tell
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by sumastardon
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Way more potential upside in storeBitcoin Update The Shape this is Throwing So far, the parabolic shape Bitcoin is making remains very encouraging for the future. If it can now hold up today between the old high area at 7450 and the new parallel , now at 7425 between now and Tokyo and China opening we could see some spectacular gains...it just has to hold up now... Stops for day-traders remain under the parallel by 20 points or so for now and under 7330 for longer term holders for now. The last massive surge from 6000 to 7350 came from the East. They like break-outs - if we hold up today as above Bitcoin could begin to fly higher, substantially higher. $15,000 looks like the next big number: 2, 3, 5, 7.5, 15 - let's see. But we still need to get through today: depends how involved you want to get from here...it's still in corrective mode just trading between the high and a recent low at 7474...but WOW the shape here, if the highs get taken out later on here and early in China. Suggest increasing holdings if and when (hopefully) the high is broken again aat 7577 - whether that happens soon or later. Use a stop under 7450 and it won't get hit. Good Hunting, once more, with way more potential upside once we see a break above the highs than yesterday. Be Lucky.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Less BS more chartBITCOIN: BTCUSD Less BS version More Chart What will be giving cheer to bulls right now is that fact that it's holding up so well around 1735 and down to the next listed fixed support at 7077-7065... no one really wants to sell... it's coming up to a speccy buy here when it retests 7077 or alternatively consider putting a buy order in around the 7015 level (with a stop about 50 points lower, though) and there is quite a good chance it will get struck by look of chart. Those pin bars at 7005 and 7000 off the lower parallel look good for the bulls, showing quite agressive buying power down at this level, so if we do see another sell off below 7077 - 7065 near term support range that 7010-6095 range is the next area of interst for those looking to get long (with stops). Alternatively wait for 7270 to be beaten and look to buy on the next minor pull-back from there. So far the notional fixed support lines drawn on the chart yesterday have proved quite helpful, so remain unchanged for now. Can't rest now until Bitcoin has been tagged, bagged and in the freezer. More as this move develops, football permitting, obviously. And if 6950 happens to give way whilst the football is on, we need to stand back for a while - it should then come back quite a lot further still. But right now, Bitcoin is coming up to a buy point again on retests of the upper parallel. So long as it uses that parallel for support this monster cannot run away to the downside... Those already long might consider increasing positions on a move back above the near term overhead congestion zone at 7262. So much BS needed in effort to keep less experienced, newer traders from blowing their hands off - sorry - to experienced traders . Long story short: it's more risky to buy here but reward is a little greater. Counter intuitively, It is way less risky to buy once 7262 has been beaten...it should then move back up to 7500 quickly - the next big test - it has to then show enough power and momentum to push through - some traders will close out here just in case there's a double top about to form...the question is how many??? More than want to buy??? Unlikely, but possible - only once 7500 is broken can we claim that Bitcoin is finally bagged and in the freezer. Until then it can still bite your bollocks off. Good hunting, gentlemen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Brent Crude: UK OIL More upside still once 60.60 is breachedUK OIL: Brent Crude: The medium term trend remains positive whilst within the parallels shown on chart, so whilst above 58 Brent looks to have more upside still, and should go on to test the upper parallel at 63.30 once minor resistance at 60.60 is breached. Will be looking to close down longs at 63.25ish and then wait to see price action develop at 63.30-63.50 range - if we don't see an aggressive red candle emerge it means hedge funds are still greedy for contracts and that upper parallel could yet get broken on the upside. Don't think it will, but need plan B in case - only if 63.60 gets breached on upside and then Brent comes back to test the upper parallel from above and then bounces back up through 63.60 will look to get long again for further strength up to 67.30 minimum. The next resistance above here lies at 69.73. Any test of this latter level is likely to mark the ultimate high of this run and if struck should present a good selling opportunity over the coming couple of weeks. More as this move develops...
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
7.28.17 | BANK | Falling Wedge back to ResistanceBANK index: There is an enormous Adam and Eve double top forming inside the sideways channel. This may suggest that price is going to fall back to support. However there has been a lot of bearish divergence over the past two weeks and a corrective move bullish may push price into a breakout out of the sideways channel diverging from the bearish double top. As it stands right now price is in a very tight falling wedge at a major support zone which also is at the neckline for the double top. At the very least I expect price to breakout of the falling wedge to form the pull-back for the double top and anything more from this will be a corrective rally back to resistance and possibly through it. One thing to watch out for is capital moving out of the financial sector as APPL reports their earnings next week. There is a little bearish press in the market for Bank stocks right now but this may only reinforce the resistance of the channel it may not cause price to collapse completely. Again my expectations are a bullish pull-back to a rally back to resistance starting on Monday. Any bearish divergent price action and I will revisit the Adam and Eve Double top.
NASDAQ:BANKLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
2
7.30.17 | AAL | Falling Wedge Break OutAAL looks like it has slightly diverged from its bullish breakout of a falling wedge. None the less Friday did close with a large bullish candle after a huge gap down divergent to the falling wedge pattern. Price has been trading with the support of accelerating fan lines and may have an overall target back to the lower support line. However oil this week looks like it is going to retrace out of a Rising Wedge which is going to be bullish for the Airlines. Also signaling a bullish retracement is the Stochastic Oscillator which has crossed over and trending out of Oversold as well as the Sentiment Zone Oscillator which has also bounced from Oversold and trending to break resistance of the 0 line. Confirmation of a breakout will be a bullish close on Monday, and increasing volume which is already on the rise as seen with the dashed trendline. The first target is drawn on the 31.8% line at about $31.50 | Place your stop just outside daily volatility or use the 8 EMA and place it just outside of that.
NASDAQ:AALLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
7.30.17 | BAC | Falling Wedge Breakout BAC is running into a major support line as well as nearing the support of the Upward Channel Price has been trading in for the past few months. The Falling Wedge is tightened up and will not fit another day of volatility in it. Stochastic's is in a long term up trend, the Stochastic's RSI is trending out of oversold and the Sentiment Zone Oscillator is going to makes it's bounce off oversold. I am speculating a minor trend bullish breakout at the beginning of the week and a possible rally to the resistance zone at the top of the range for a corrective move based on the bullish divergence the Bank Stocks have had for the past two weeks. There is some bearish press in the News right now but with Warren Buffet recently becoming the largest shareholder of BAC I do not see a bearish outcome for this particular Stock.
NYSE:BACLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
8.2.17 | BAC | Target 1 at around $24.90BAC | Going into the market for 8.2.17 price has already traded to Gap up above a major resistance line and currently is at $24.49 at the close on 8.1.17, indicating a rally. Price has broken the confluence between the Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension tool, indicating a further rally. It has also broken the 61.8% line on the Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating that price is going to continue to trade higher. I have a Target set at about $24.90 at the top of the Fibonacci Retracement (100% Line) use daily volatility to set your stop or if price starts to trade too far below the trendline, which has been drawn directing the bullish move.
NYSE:BACLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
2
8.6.17 | INTC | Short Trade breaking out of a Rising WedgeINTC | Price has formed a rising wedge and has already began breaking out. Sellers have had control of the market for the past two trading sessions closing each day bearish, which is the indication the bearish breakout of the rising wedge has started. A large inverted Head+Shoulders pattern (grey) is forming as an underlying pattern to the breakout on the falling wedge. The first target of the selloff is the .382% line and the second target is the .5% line. It is doubtful that price will close below the .5% line, however if it does there is a major support line that price will pivot on and reverse to complete the form of the right shoulder on the inverted Head+Shoulders pattern. It is highly recommended to tighten your stop at the second target. The MACD has started to indicate a pull back to its signal line, Stochastics RSI is starting to tick out of Overbought, and the Awesome Accelerator has already started selling back to the zero line. Enter on mondays open, and if you're using stop's set it using daily volatility and the 8EMA.
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by TrilogyAnalysis
S and P 500: More range trading in storeS and P 500: Some seasonal facts to help you decide on likely S and P direction from here over the Summer: S and P 500 Highs and Lows since 2011 HIGH LOW 28.4.11 5.8.11 and 28.9.11 27.4.12 31.5.12 and 9.11.12 21.5.13 20.6.13 and 27.8.13 and 9.10.13 no May peak 6.8.14 and 15.10.14 18.5 15 20.8.15 and 28.9.15 19.4.16 19.1.16 and 10.2.16 and 27.6.16 (Brexit) and 8.11.16 (Trump) HIGH Pattern: A significant high is made in a small window of 32 days between 19th April and 21st May in 5 of the last 6 years. LOW Pattern: In EVERY year a low is made in a 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November. 3 lows in August = 50% of all years, 2 lows in June (but one was Brexit) 28th September = 2 lows (2011 and 2015) 9.10.13 and 15.10 14 - 5 days apart 9.11.12 and 8.11.16 - 2 days apart So it's fairly clear that one should be looking to enter this trade from the long side in the 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November and to exit the trade in the 32 day window between 19th April and 21st May each year, in preparation for the Vix long trade the following month (see Vix comment) For the purposes of this exercise we obviously have to choose an optimal date and so it's quite likely that you can analyse and finesse this part of the equation better than I can, but here I'm choosing the last trading day of April to exit and the 16th October as entry date. Once again I believe that the timing of entry (more so than exit) can be improved significantly using Techical indicators, again up for further discussion. But sticking to the same entry end exit dates for the purposes of this exercise and for simplicity yields the following results over 7 years to date: Being invested in the S and P from start of analysis from first buy on 216th October 2010 through to 30th April 2017 would have netted 1210 points in profit. Being invested for 6.5 months from Mid October to end April the next year has yielded a return of 1289 points, so only 79 points more or just 11 points per year difference - but over 6 to 7 months, not 12 months each year. So the point is: NOTHING is lost by being out of the S and P 500 during the Summer months, as clearly shown for the last 7 years now. This year there is at least a new paradigm: like it or not his name is Donald Trump. Maybe he can save the S and P from summer doldrums - but he's going to have deliver a new trick pretty soon if the S and P isn't going to get bored with the UnTruman Show over the summer and gradually sell off, culminating in a mini sell off, with a 50-50 chance that this will occur in August.
FX:SPX500
by sumastardon