sumastardon

S and P 500: More range trading in store

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
S and P 500: Some seasonal facts to help you decide on likely S and P direction from here over the Summer:
S and P 500 Highs and Lows since 2011
HIGH LOW
28.4.11 5.8.11 and 28.9.11
27.4.12 31.5.12 and 9.11.12
21.5.13 20.6.13 and 27.8.13 and 9.10.13
no May peak 6.8.14 and 15.10.14
18.5 15 20.8.15 and 28.9.15
19.4.16 19.1.16 and 10.2.16 and 27.6.16 (Brexit) and 8.11.16 (Trump)

HIGH Pattern: A significant high is made in a small window of 32 days between 19th April and 21st May in 5 of the last 6 years.

LOW Pattern: In EVERY year a low is made in a 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November.
3 lows in August = 50% of all years, 2 lows in June (but one was Brexit)
28th September = 2 lows (2011 and 2015)
9.10.13 and 15.10 14 - 5 days apart
9.11.12 and 8.11.16 - 2 days apart

So it's fairly clear that one should be looking to enter this trade from the long side in the 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November and to exit the trade in the 32 day window between 19th April and 21st May each year, in preparation for the Vix long trade the following month (see Vix comment)

For the purposes of this exercise we obviously have to choose an optimal date and so it's quite likely that you can analyse and finesse this part of the equation better than I can, but here I'm choosing the last trading day of April to exit and the 16th October as entry date. Once again I believe that the timing of entry (more so than exit) can be improved significantly using Techical indicators, again up for further discussion.

But sticking to the same entry end exit dates for the purposes of this exercise and for simplicity yields the following results over 7 years to date:

Being invested in the S and P from start of analysis from first buy on 216th October 2010 through to 30th April 2017 would have netted 1210 points in profit.
Being invested for 6.5 months from Mid October to end April the next year has yielded a return of 1289 points, so only 79 points more or just 11 points per year difference - but over 6 to 7 months, not 12 months each year. So the point is: NOTHING is lost by being out of the S and P 500 during the Summer months, as clearly shown for the last 7 years now.

This year there is at least a new paradigm: like it or not his name is Donald Trump. Maybe he can save the S and P from summer doldrums - but he's going to have deliver a new trick pretty soon if the S and P isn't going to get bored with the UnTruman Show over the summer and gradually sell off, culminating in a mini sell off, with a 50-50 chance that this will occur in August.

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