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Seasonality

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Seasonality

Seasonality is a phenomenon where price undergoes similar and predictable changes around the same period within every calendar year. These changes can happen in a specific meteorological season, growing season, quarter, month, holiday period or off-peak period. Seasonality typically happens in the commodity market. For example, there is a seasonal trend in the demand for heating oil, pushing prices higher when demand increases and lower when demand decreases. There is a seasonal trend in the supply of soybeans (related to sowing, growing and harvesting), influencing price and producing patterns along the way.

Seasonality can also be found in other markets, such as stocks, indices and Forex and there are usually fundamental reasons behind it. Finding seasonal patterns and using them to predict a trend, to filter trade ideas or to identify a tradable opportunity can give a trader an edge. Please note that individual years can vary and that seasonality itself can be subject to change. Whether it is used alone or in combination with other techniques, seasonality is a useful tool in a technical trader's toolbox.
adamwillis adamwillis USDCAD, D, Long ,
USDCAD: Finally, USDCAD Reverses
76 0 6
USDCAD, D Long
Finally, USDCAD Reverses

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DkRIc589/ USDCAD is expected to reverse today, starting a bullish pattern for the rest of the week. Take Profit with respect to Fibonacci levels is at 1.28. Traders can make a multiple safe take Profit exits BEFORE reaching the Previously mentioned level.

Ecantoni Ecantoni MOD HG1!, D, Short ,
HG1!: Seasonality on High Grade vs. Fractal
210 3 12
HG1!, D Short
Seasonality on High Grade vs. Fractal

*7 yrs seasonality suggesting upcoming weakness *Fractal extrapolated from 1991 matching. Stop at 2017 highs, first ideal target at Fibo 50%

DanV DanV MOD EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD – COULD RETRACE IN LONGER TERM BULLISH CYCLE
1154 0 34
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD – COULD RETRACE IN LONGER TERM BULLISH CYCLE

EURUSD has posted a spike low in March 2015 and subsequently has failed to close below that low on monthly charts on last 2 attempts. This suggests that potentially an important low might be in place and that the EURUSD could continue much higher from here over several months if not more in longer term bullish cycle. See monthly chart below for the details The ...

Mr_Dent Mr_Dent PRO CL1!, 60, Long ,
CL1!: Crude offering Low Risk Setup
117 0 6
CL1!, 60 Long
Crude offering Low Risk Setup

In looking at Crude we can see that Price has fallen between the 62-76% Fib retrace levels of this nascient rally and is finding some support here. The reason we started positioning long in Oil was based on our macro view that Commodities would undergo a counter-trend rally at minimum. The Chinese liquidity injections, severely stretched trend following algo ...

surfingmarket surfingmarket PRO JP225USD, D, Short ,
JP225USD: Nikkei is about to go into correction
42 0 7
JP225USD, D Short
Nikkei is about to go into correction

The longer time frame III wave is coming to an end. I am expecting a season long correction starting early July

Evan_Moe_Money Evan_Moe_Money PRO DEZ, D, Short ,
DEZ: another loooooongterm investment
13 0 7
DEZ, D Short
another loooooongterm investment

Daily Chart! Huge loooong movements. The trend has clearly turned, and even if we missed the perfect entry, there is stilll sooooo much potential right here. Zoom out and you will find that incredible huge channel! Every wave is taking for close t o6 month. but thats like 6 month of profits, profits, profits! Enjoy =)

Mr_Dent Mr_Dent PRO S1!, W, Long ,
S1!: Beans, Beans, the magical Grain.  The more you buy....
41 0 9
S1!, W Long
Beans, Beans, the magical Grain. The more you buy....

The greater your 2017 Gains !! As discussed in our prior posts, Soybeans formed a perfect setup with extremely Bullish Commercial positioning and activity, Favorable seasonals, Massive Trend Following short positions ready to be squeezed, and numerous statistical studies evidencing the decline was near it's end. We now have some further evidence and clues that ...

JXMFinancial JXMFinancial ALXN, 60,
ALXN: This one is getting ready
30 0 5
ALXN, 60
This one is getting ready

Big July seasonality play here

Mr_Dent Mr_Dent PRO NG1!, 60, Short ,
NG1!: Nat Gas poised to Close Island Reversal Gap
90 0 6
NG1!, 60 Short
Nat Gas poised to Close Island Reversal Gap

Nat Gas is currently entering a bearish month seasonally. Since 1990, the July win percentage is only 41%, and to make matters worse losing months averaged (60)cents while winners averaged .42.. So you are looking at 2-3 pot odds along with your lousy odds of making that hand. The COT currently shows a mixed picture with Commercial Hedgers sporting a relatively ...

Mr_Dent Mr_Dent PRO CL1!, 60,
CL1!: WTI is set to rally.
121 0 4
CL1!, 60
WTI is set to rally.

CL is upon a very seasonally bullish time. Since 2000, Crude has sported a 62% winning % from July-Aug. With the PBOC pumping liquidity, the early signs of a tactical rally across the commodity complex appears at hand. The Producer/Merchant Category in the Disaggregated COT report scores a 100% on a 18m basis, and they continued adding longs into last weeks ...

Mr_Dent Mr_Dent PRO GC1!, W, Long ,
GC1!: Gold and Commodities setting up for Tactical Move Higher
55 0 7
GC1!, W Long
Gold and Commodities setting up for Tactical Move Higher

When looking for an ideal trade setup, we want to see Fundamental Catalysts, Extremes in Trader Positioning and/or Activity, as well as your preferred technical tools reaching a consensus. In Gold and Silver we are seeing all 3 factors converge to a Long Setup - And these same factors are pointing to a broad based commodity rally. 1) Without much fanfare, the ...

MidasTouchConsulting MidasTouchConsulting XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold - Buy The Next Dip Around 1,240 USD
286 1 8
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold - Buy The Next Dip Around 1,240 USD

As expected gold continues to trade between 1,200 USD and 1,300 USD. The recent strong recovery from 1,215 USD up to 1,295 USD just two days ago was a bit surprising as we´re getting close to the FED meeting next week and seasonality is not really favorable in spring. But gold is showing more and more strength and has already been breaking out above its ...

JordanFreeman JordanFreeman PRO AUDJPY, 15, Long ,
AUDJPY: Risk Sentiment and Bullish RSI Trigger-AUDJPY
33 0 8
AUDJPY, 15 Long
Risk Sentiment and Bullish RSI Trigger-AUDJPY

The AUDJPY currency pair is always an exciting pair to trade for its relation to risk and how big profits can be when traded correctly. Despite major seasonal bearish bias as seen from my 15 min intraday chart posted with this analysis, I believe this pair has been brewing strength for the last month as it showed a bit of weakness. I strongly believe in the coming ...

Audacity618 Audacity618 PRO SUGARUSD, D, Long ,
SUGARUSD: Sugar looking sweet
15 0 7
SUGARUSD, D Long
Sugar looking sweet

Swing to $.165

Esoptions Esoptions S1!, D, Short ,
S1!: Bearish price action and seasonality
23 0 2
S1!, D Short
Bearish price action and seasonality

Good downside potential. Supply & demand not bullish too.

acaitrader acaitrader PRO USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Not so fast Oil Bulls
182 0 7
USOIL, D Short
Not so fast Oil Bulls

Based on the reaction last week, we saw a larger draw from EIA then what API predicted and we still saw a sell off, indicating that the bears definitely want to have one more swing at the lows here. Of course API and EIA could drastically change the trading plan but at the current time, I don't see oil heading back up from here. DM- over the DM+ with ADX ...

Evan_Moe_Money Evan_Moe_Money PRO WTW, 60, Long ,
WTW: Chance for another breakout
64 1 8
WTW, 60 Long
Chance for another breakout

Even though the big seasonal phase is over, I think there is a breakout ahead. We see a long and stable trend to jump on here. Only thing, the big purple resistance at around 33.40 (you can see it better in the 1W chart, dont know how to get multiple charts in one idea, glad for help though) needs to be broken. Also we see a consolidation here, even a wedge ...

geryhpol geryhpol USOIL, 240,
USOIL: US OIL - long
164 2 9
USOIL, 240
US OIL - long

Despise resent knock downs oil has a good near feature. 1) Storage shows drawn 16 weeks in row 2) Summer season requires a lager demand for gasoline 3) Geo-political situation is getting more unclear in some regions 4) Bulls show power if not being sabotaged

123456...Show More Ideas
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