$MSTR ..Houston we’ve found a support NASDAQ:MSTR , MSTR went from trading at 400 times bitcoin value to less than 1(slightly) book to value. And it Happened suspicously while hitting the volume profile point of control.
MSTR
$BMNR: Bullish reversal?GN lads,
It seems like Tom Lee's DAT can run up by 148% from here before facing significant resistance.
This is the level that corresponds to the quarterly earnings report from Q3 2025.
Once above it, prices could accelerate higher longer term.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
MSTR: Now I can't unsee itWas on a Livestream Friday talking about my (now closed) short and migrated to the Monthly timeframe on $NASDAQ:MSTR. I've seen this pattern many times before and now I can't unsee it.
Turns out there is nothing new under the sun... of finance. All the same patterns of human behavior repeat just with different narratives.
Alert: Bitcoin Price Charts Bear Flag Bitcoin follows the downward path posted earlier on the weekly chart (see related)
The falling knife accelerated after price broke below $100k as it swiftly hit the 80k level and stopped there just ahead of the next viable support at $74k
The price is now within a pink downtrend channel as RSI turned bearish below the 50 reading
Every strong move is followed by corrective price action
So the price bounced off the $80k and is now in a sideways consolidation
This is how the Bear Flag pattern has formed (white lines)
I think one more minor leg up is likely to complete the corrective structure
Watch for a breakdown of the flag’s downside to target the distance of the flagpole below
This aligns with both the downside of the descending channel and the $64k strong support
As I checked, MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) BTC cost basis is around $66k
Watch RSI as it should remain bearish below 50 to support the drop
Trade idea: $MSTZ 2X inverse #MSTRThese measured moves are determined from the #cupandhandle pattern.
There is also a inverse head and shoulders pattern within the CUP section, giving further credence that we shall this pattern perform to target.
And thus see further weakness with #Saylor's #Bitcoin investment vehicle.
What goes up must come down.
The current BTC nav sits at $65,827
The premium is leaking out with the mNav at 1.34 likely to test parity
BTC = Bout To Collapse
I'm not trading bitcoin, but I trade the highly correlated stock Microstrategy. This is a pristine setup before the Asian session punishes Bitcoin for that faux breakout we saw into market close.
The downtrend on the daily chart is the dominant trend on BTC right now, and cracked the whip anytime Bitcoin even thought about crossing that downtrend.
BTC hit massive daily resistance.
Asia rarely breaks resistance overnight.
Max pain favors a move DOWN, not up.
Dealers are short gamma into the strike zone you’re playing.
Your deltas (–0.41) will explode to –0.55 to –0.70 on a gap-down.
IV crushed today → will expand tomorrow morning, benefiting you.
MSTR ALWAYS overreacts to BTC.
Strong Open Interest build at 185, 180 and 175 - temporarily OTM ;)
Max pain sits well below current price on MSTR of $186 at $175
Market Makers hedge delta, not max pain
The largest Open Interest of call options sit at $190.
My prediction for Bitcoin and MSTR for 12/5:
BTC opens below 91,400 and MSTR opens below $183
Under $183, Market Makers hedge mildly bearish
Under $181, MM's hedge strongly bearish (accelerating fall similar to what we saw today around 2-2:45pm)
Under $179, Gamma Squeeze in control - move down accelerates
Under $177, MMs forced to short to $175 (current max pain level)
Under $175, Max pain magnet realized. If we hit $175 - expect price to be pinned by MMs.
Options are pricing in a big downward movement for the overnight session pointing at a 65-70% likelihood of a big selloff.
MSTR - Wave 4? - Next stop 197-202 then reload for 220-235!THESIS
The recent price action confirms a bullish Elliott Wave impulse move from the $155.61 low. The market has validated an Extended Wave 3 by successfully holding the maximum 61.8% retracement level during the deep Wave 4 pullback (low of $177.82).
We are now in the final thrust of Minor Wave 5, we should then see a 3 wave pullback which sets up the full corrective rally to our higher-degree target of $220-$235!
Analysis & Targets (Aligned to the Chart)
1. 🎯 Wave (A) Completion: The Final Minor Impulse
The current action is the final push of Minor Wave 5 (the fifth wave of the initial impulse from the $177.82 low).
• Entry Signal: The bounce from the $177.82 low confirmed the Wave 4 bottom.
• Target Zone (A): The technical projection for Wave 5 (using W5 = W1 or 0.618 \times W1-3) places the peak between $196 - $202
• Action: This is the initial profit-taking zone. Look to sell calls here, as this completes the first major structural move.
2. 🌊 Wave (B) Correction: The High-Grade Reload
Once the Wave (A) target is hit, a larger corrective pullback (Wave (2) in the larger context) is mandatory before the final surge. Since the preceding Wave 4 was sharp/deep, this Wave (B) correction is likely to be shallow/sideways (a Flat or Triangle) to adhere to the Principle of Alternation.
• Target Zone (B): We project a 38.2-50-61.8% retracement of the entire impulse. This places the reloading zone between $182 - $172 (The green box on the chart).
• Action: This is the Optimal Reloading Zone for long positions before the final rally.
3. 🚀 Wave (C) Final Target: The Greater Rally Peak
The final Wave (C) completes the overarching corrective rally. This leg is targeting a significant Fibonacci retracement of the prior, large bear wave.
• Target Zone (C): The $220 - $235 box is perfectly aligned with the high-probability 38.2% of the massive Wave 3 down that preceded this entire rally.
• Action: This is the final take-profit target for the entire trade structure.
Key Levels to Watch
• Buy Target (Sell Limit): $197 (Exit Minor W5).
• Reload Zone: $182- $172 - (Buy the Wave B dip).
• Invalidation Price: $170 (A close below this invalidates the entire impulse).
Good luck with the final wave! Remember to manage risk and set a stop loss! I am a guy on the internet and not a financial advisor!
#ElliottWave #MSTR #Bitcoin #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis
The Bitcoin Meteorite and MSTR falling knifeThe US Trading session just ended and handed Asia a Bitcoin Meteorite. If there's one thing Asia hates - it's fake pumps...and that's all today was on BTC. We'll be lucky if BTC is over $90k when the US market opens tomorrow on 12/4.
Asian session behavior is predictable:
They love to liquidate overleveraged U.S. breakout traders
They fade fake pumps
They push price back toward equilibrium
At the very least we pull back to $92, and while I think $91k is more likely and even $90 isn't out of the question. The other concern is all the benevolent articles coming out about BTC. Larry Fink said bitcoin is the new bellbottoms...or whatever. When they flood the market with bogus 'opinion' pieces, these people only speak because they want to influence retail traders. You really think the CEO of black rock wants to drive the price of BTC UP before they expand their holdings... If they're talking about something...they're selling you a bridge. I think BTC and it's biggest holding company MSTR (which managed to buy only 130 Bitcoins this cycle (BWHAHAHA) is going to crash even harder than it has been. $1.4B in cash reserves to fund $773+ Million in annual dividends while diluting shares is a recipe for bankruptcy and a $.01 share price...
Shorting BTC and MSTR all week long and twice on Sunday.
$MSTR BUY THE DIP!MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) is navigating a significant correction phase. The stock, currently trading around $185.88, has experienced a steep 30% decline over the past month, largely attributed to a concurrent 13% drop in the price of Bitcoin. This downturn has been more severe for MSTR than for the underlying asset, with the stock falling 65% from its all-time high set in November 2024, compared to Bitcoin's 6% retracement over the same extended period.
Amid this volatility, a contingent of market observers, primarily active on social media platforms, maintains a thesis of resilience for the Bitcoin-focused treasury firm. Their argument centers on MicroStrategy's established public market stature and its systemic importance within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. They highlight that, according to metrics from CompaniesMarketCap, MicroStrategy ranks as the 433rd largest company globally by market capitalization. This position, they argue, suggests a lower probability of a catastrophic collapse, positing that external entities or market participants would likely intervene to "bail out" the firm rather than face the widespread repercussions of its failure. This perspective draws a distinction between MicroStrategy and private crypto companies that have failed, citing its regulatory transparency and public accountability as key buffers.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the chart for MSTR indicates two critical support zones that could halt the current descent. The primary support level is identified near $120, with a secondary, stronger support zone around $100. These levels are viewed as potential accumulation areas where buying interest may resurge.
Conversely, for any sustained recovery, key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent downtrend provide clear resistance targets for taking profits. The first and more immediate target resides at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, approximately $226.79. A stronger bullish momentum would then face significant resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, around $270.83, which represents the second major take-profit zone.
In summary, while fundamental debates about the company's durability persist, the technical framework suggests a path defined by the $100-$120 support range and a recovery trajectory capped by resistance near $227 and $271. The stock's trajectory will likely remain tightly coupled to Bitcoin's price action, with these technical levels serving as crucial markers for both downside risk and potential recovery.
STRATEGY Mirror crash with 2022 to $60 has started.Michael Saylor won't like this. But the chart is what it is and that's an objective dynamic.
** The 5-year Channel Up and Bear Cycle **
Strategy (MSTR) has been trading within almost a 5-year Channel Up since the February 2021 Top of its previous Cycle. Within this lines, it has had its latest top (Higher High) on the week of November 18 2024 and since then it has been on a structured strong decline.
This decline has gotten even stronger once the price broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). So far, the 2025 correction is mirroring the 2021 one, which was the start of a 2-year (2021/21) Bear Cycle.
** The three Stages **
Based on that, we have valid reasons to expect that 2026 will also mirror the past Bear Cycle. What stands out on this analysis is that we have classified the whole Bear Cycle into three Stages. Based on that, we have now already entered Stage 2 as the price has broken below its 1W MA50 (and should stay as the Resistance for the remainder of the Cycle) and almost touched its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). When that happened in January 2022, the market rebounded towards the 1W MA50 where it was rejected and when it broke below the 1W MA200 as well, Stage 3 started. This Stage made the Bear Cycle bottom on the 1M MA250 (red trend-line) after a -90% decline in total. It was completed when the price broke above the 1W MA50 again, essentially confirming the start of the new Bull Cycle.
** Where is the bottom now? **
As a result, we may now see a short-term rebound, limited by the 1W MA50, which after it gets rejected and breaks below the 1W MA200, Stage 3 may start. If this Bear Cycle also crashes by -90%, we should then be expecting a bottom at $60 (at least), supported by the 1M MA250 again.
Notice also the striking symmetry among the 1W RSI patterns of the two Cycle fractals. The 1W RSI has currently hit the 30.00 oversold barrier (similar to Jan 2022) and it was a second break and then a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence that confirmed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, essentially turning Strategy Inc. into a long-term buy opportunity again.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
MARA HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETUP SOON!!!🚨 MARA HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETUP 🚨
* Here We Can See Clearly The Next Potential Moves For MARA Coming Hours/Days.
* Keep Your Eyes Close On Your Trading Positions.
* Happy PIP Hunting Traders.
FXKILLA.
The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bottom!Today MicroStrategy formed a beautiful daily chart bottoming tail on extreme volume.
Its truly a picture perfect reversal signal.
This reversal came on the back of BTC being very weak and still down 5% at market close.
Michael Saylor announced an addition of a 130BTC purchase, but also has set aside a billion dollar expense fund if he needed to sell some BTC.
The likely hood of MSTR having to sell BTC is very unlikely.
We traded MSTR today for a lovely gain. Riding 180 calls to the upside.
MSTR HIGH PROBABILITY LONG SETUP SOON!!!🚨 MSTR HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETUP 🚨
* Here We Can See Clearly The Next Potential Moves For MSTR Coming Hours/Days.
* Keep Your Eyes Close On Your Trading Positions.
* Happy PIP Hunting Traders.
FXKILLA.
MSTR when will it end? Soon...NASDAQ:MSTR Sentiment is low, the asset is hated and misunderstood by TradFi and retail. It’s a recipe for a bottom!
Price hit the weekly 200EMA in wave 4. Not much more to add, there is room to fall to $101 High Volume Node, but a bottom should emerge soon.
🎯 Terminal target for the business cycle could see prices as high as $1000 based on pivots
📈 Weekly RSI hit oversold with bullish divergence from wave 2
👉 Analysis is invalidated if we close back below $84
Safe trading
MSTR nearing bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR Price dropped hard wave Y of IV, invalidating the previous analysis.
Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern, but is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, a high probability bottom.
📈 Daily RSI went deep into oversold, negating the bullish divergence
👉 Continued downside has a target of the High Volume Node, $101
Safe trading
BTC - Bulls Watching the Channel Support!📈Bitcoin remains overall bullish, trading cleanly inside its rising channel. Each dip toward the lower bound has acted as a strong springboard for the next impulsive move, showing clear demand from buyers.
⚔️As BTC approaches the lower trendline of the channel and the green demand zone, we will be looking for trend-following longs. This confluence area has held multiple times and continues to act as a key decision point for market structure.
🏹As long as BTC remains above this zone , the bullish scenario remains intact, and another push toward higher highs becomes the most likely outcome. Only a break below the demand zone would weaken the bullish outlook.
Now it’s all about the retest… will the bulls defend structure once again? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
MSTR still bullish. MSTR bullishness is still intact but it should close above the upper yellow line for the bullishness confirmation intact. If that happens then there's a big possibility that we will see a big sharp last parabolic run to new ATH. Of course this is not financial advised.
If this failed then the last hope is on the Red Line.
Is it time to reload $BITF? We caught the breakout in NASDAQ:BITF when it was below 3 earlier this year. It ripped all the way to $6+. Since then, the stock imploded back to the original crime scene amidst the AI overvaluation selloff. The $2.30 area provides good support and the stock has reacted off that level. If Bitfarms can scale its entrance into AI/HPC capabilities, the stock should be able to see the $3.8-4 area barring any further market selloff on AI names.
Stock is current trading around $2.70. I would put my stop at $2.30 if taking this idea.
Best of luck if tailing.
MSTR long-term TAStrategy is strictly bearish, and it's been bearish since the end of September, there's no bottom as of yet, it's hard to tell when will it stop falling, the blue lines is an approximate channel for consolidation but we need more time to see.
Due to excessive selling it may have a small jump in a short-term but it needs way more time to stop falling.
MSTR Chess Game: When Smart Money Plays Against Saylor!
Did you play chess before?
For me, i started playing it in the past 3 days, and even though i reached a nice speed rank, the performance and game review still show the blind movement! And this is EXACTLY what Saylor is doing! Let me show you the data:
He bought $1.5B at $52K (March), then added $3B at $60K+ (November) - always buying the momentum, not the value! Now MSTR down -50% from $360 while BTC only -10%... You see the pattern?!
Weeks ago (Oct 1, around $360) i told my friend, "If I play with 1-2, I will say this guy is ass*** and i will try to cost him a loss, and i will play the game to make him buy my sells then rekt him and buy his loss."
Just a few weeks and here we are! MSTR losing -50% and BTC run to his buy AVG $74K, yes, he is still in a safe zone, but the real game starts now!
The Technical Setup (this is where it gets interesting!):
So i use multiple methods - GANN 50% retracement hitting at $145, Fibonacci Golden Pocket at $152-163, and Volume Profile showing the highest trades at $147. Even RSI at 28 is showing divergence while price is making new lows!
Here's my trade plan:
Entry Zone: $145-155 (I'm scaling in here!)
Target 1: $183 (taking 25% off)
Target 2: $190 (another 50% off)
Stop Loss: $139 (below monthly support)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.8 (this is a beautiful setup!)
But wait, there's more data!
The correlation is crazy:
MSTR/BTC: 0.84 correlation
BTC/NDQ: 0.72 (and rising!)
If MSTR breaks $140, we could see BTC at $83-79K and NDQ dropping 5-8%!
Will Saylor survive? Here's the math:
BTC needs to hit $29K for margin calls - that's NOT happening!
He has $3.2B in unencumbered BTC
Bonds not due until 2027-2029
His software business still makes $50M quarterly.
So he plays it nicely, and the team behind still has more to do! Strategic Bitcoin Reserve talks, Gensler leaving, Q1 2025 crypto regulations - they're doing their best to make everything hold!
The sentiment data (this is golden!):
Fear & Greed: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Put/Call ratio: 2.3 (highest since 2022!)
Social volume: -78% last 7 days
You know what this means?! Smart money accumulating while retail panicking!
My analysis using:
GANN boxes on log scale (this is KEY!)
Custom MA ribbons with volume weighting
Multi-timeframe RSI divergence
Fibonacci zones from multiple swings
So what's the play?!
If you're conservative:
Wait for the weekly close above $180
Scale by 25% at a time
Use BTC/GOLD as a hedge
If you're aggressive like me:
Accumulate $145-155 NOW +2% invest
Sell $190+225 calls for income
Consider the BTC/MSTR pair trade
Next 30 days watch:
Monthly close Dec 31 (CRITICAL!)
Q4 BTC purchases announcement
Fed meeting Jan 29
MSTR earnings Feb 3
Anyway!
Would MSTR be saved now and rebound?! YES!
Professional accumulation is happening at these levels - the risk/reward is too good!
they do their best to make everything hold, the system is upgraded, the thinking scale has become faster than your mind now!
So, we're all here to make profits, and i wish i could short MSTR at $360, but now I'm buying!
if you like what you read and what you see, please press the like button, and your comments are welcome
Thanks, tradingview, for giving me a space here!
we ask Allah to reconcile and repay
#MSTR #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Saylor
MicroStrategy Under Pressure: Bearish Playbook in Action🎯 MSTR: The "Thief's Playbook" - Strategic Bear Trap Setup! 💰🔥
📊 Asset Overview
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) - Bitcoin's Proxy Play in the Stock Market
🎭 The Setup: When Bears Come to Party
Alright folks, gather 'round! We've got ourselves a textbook triangular moving average breakdown on MSTR that's screaming "short opportunity" louder than my portfolio after a bad trade week! 😅
Current Market Sentiment: 🐻 BEARISH CONFIRMED
The technicals are aligning like planets before a lunar eclipse - and trust me, this eclipse might cast some shadows on those long positions!
🎯 The "Thief Strategy" Game Plan
🚪 Entry Zones - The Layering Approach
Here's where it gets spicy! 🌶️ Instead of going all-in like a degen at a casino, we're using the "Thief Layering Method" - multiple limit sell orders to scale into this position:
Suggested Entry Layers:
🥇 Layer 1: $300
🥈 Layer 2: $290
🥉 Layer 3: $280
💎 Layer 4: $270
🔥 Layer 5: $260
Pro Tip: You can add MORE layers based on your risk appetite and account size. More layers = Better average entry = Smoother sleep at night! 😴
🛡️ Risk Management - The "Oh Sh*t" Line
Stop Loss: 🚨 $320
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTICE: Dear Thief OGs, Ladies & Gentlemen! This SL is MY line in the sand. YOU need to decide YOUR own risk tolerance. Trade at your own risk, manage your own money, and don't blame me if things go sideways! This ain't financial advice - it's entertainment with charts! 🎪
🎁 Target Zone - Where We Cash Out
Take Profit Target: 🎯 $210
Why $210?
💪 Strong historical support level
📉 Oversold territory expected
Classic bull trap zone where longs get liquidated
⚠️ ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTICE: Thief OGs! This is MY target. You do YOU! If you see profits earlier and want to secure the bag - DO IT! Don't be greedy. Take profits when YOU feel comfortable. Your account, your rules, your responsibility! 💼
🔗 Related Assets to Watch - The Correlation Game
Keep your eyes on these bad boys for confirmation:
📈 Direct Correlations:
NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital) - Bitcoin miner, moves with crypto sentiment
NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms) - Another BTC miner, similar volatility pattern
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) - Crypto exchange, sentiment indicator
CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Bitcoin spot) - The godfather! MSTR holds massive BTC, direct correlation
🧠 Key Points:
MSTR trades with ~1.5x-2x Bitcoin beta (more volatile than BTC itself)
When Bitcoin dumps, MSTR often dumps HARDER 📉
Watch BTC support at $60K - if it breaks, MSTR likely follows to our target zone
Tech sector weakness ( NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY ) adds bearish pressure
⚡ Trading Psychology - The "Thief Mindset"
Look, this setup requires PATIENCE! 🧘♂️ Don't FOMO in at market price. Layer in like a professional thief planning a heist - calculated, methodical, strategic! This isn't gambling; it's probability management with a side of humor! 😎
🎪 Final Word from Your Friendly Neighborhood Chart Thief
Remember: Markets are wild, unpredictable, and don't care about your feelings OR your bills! This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes ONLY. The "Thief Strategy" is MY trading style - it's risky, it's aggressive, and it's definitely NOT for everyone!
Do your own research. Manage your own risk. Trade what you can afford to lose. And for the love of all that's holy, don't mortgage your house based on some random internet chart analysis! 🏠❌
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
🏷️ #MSTR #MicroStrategy #ShortSetup #BearishBreakdown #SwingTrade #DayTrade #ThiefStrategy #BitcoinStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverageCrossover #LayeringStrategy #RiskManagement #StockMarket #TradingIdeas #BTC #CryptoStocks #BearTrap #SupportAndResistance #ChartAnalysis #TradeSmart
🎯 Trade smart, layer in, manage risk, and may the profits be ever in your favor! 💰🚀
$MSTR: Rough sailing for Saylor. Trading strategy for Strategy.Since the largest crypto liquidation event on 10th of Oct which yipped out 19 B $ of leveraged positions the Crypto market finds itself in turmoil. One of the major causalities of all this FUD has been MicroStrategy. The stock NASDAQ:MSTR is now trading 2.3% below the NAV. That means the cos. NASDAQ:MSTR is 2.3% less valuable than the amount of CRYPTOCAP:BTC it holds on to its balance sheet. This signifies the market is pricing a lot of short to medium term downturn in the fundamentals of the stock and a credit event in the worst-case scenario leading to a liquidity and a solvency crisis.
From its ATH in Nov 2024 the stock has already lost 68% of the value. On 17th Sept I wrote in this blog that there is more downside expected in $MSTR/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC with support @ 0.002 CRYPTOCAP:BTC which indicates a price of 160 $ - 170 $ for $MSTR.
Is NASDAQ:MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. for NASDAQ:MSTR by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
Currently the stock is @ 170 $. If we plot the Fib levels on the weekly from the bottoms of the FTX blowout in 2023 we clearly see the support and resistance levels for the stock. If NASDAQ:MSTR has 2 weekly close below 170 $ then we might easily visit the 140 $ range which seems to be a previous support level. If it breaks below 140 $ then we can easily see a 100 $ on $MSTR. Another key metrics is the short interest in the stock which is @ 10% of the current float.
Trade Set Up: NASDAQ:MSTR to see more downside before any turnaround. Below 170 $ the stock can go down to 140 $ and eventually finding support @ 100. NASDAQ:MSTR / CRYPTOCAP:BTC may visit 0.0015.
$MSTR Pullback Into Monthly Demand🟠 NASDAQ:MSTR Pullback Into Monthly Demand
✓ Price has rotated cleanly back into a major demand zone
✓ Structure still supports higher time-frame strength
✓ Buyers have stepped in here before with conviction
A strong area to watch as momentum rebuilds.
We have already started adding via out tier system.
