01/27/2026 MSTR/MSTU LongHello traders,
I’m neutral on Bitcoin for now, but I’m bullish on MSTR/MSTU. The hammer candle on the 4-hour timeframe suggests upside potential from here. After consolidating within a tight range for several days, MSTR appears ready for a breakout. My conservative Take Profit (TP) is the R1 trendline, though we may see further extension depending on Bitcoin’s performance. Stop Loss (SL) is set just below the previous wick.
Conservative TP : $180-$183
SL : $155
May the trend be with you.
GL all!
AP
MSTR
MSTR Short-term analysis | Trading and expectationsNASDAQ:MSTR
🎯 Price dropped hard wave Y of 4, invalidating the previous analysis. Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern, but is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, a high probability bottom.
📈 Daily RSI printed hidden bearish divergence, suggesting lower to come
👉 Continued downside has a target of the S1 pivot, $136
Volatility analysis | Expected range & extremities
🎯MSTR has finally completed its overheated cooldown, dipping below fv. Downside momentum is in control and could continue to push the price down further. SD-2 threshold is $120
👉Fair value is ~$200
Safe trading
MSTR buy setup to 260. 200% profit via 2x daily bullish ETF MSTXtrade setup is for 200% profit from current price, swing trade to 12$ range as MSTR has strong buy rates for active buy sequence to 260 over upcoming 8-12 wks.
take profit on MSTX when MSTR reaches 260-280 levels, or when MSTX reaches approx 12$ for 200% gains.
thank me later
$MSTR counter trend bounce?NASDAQ:MSTR has finally broken out of it's bottoming structure and looks set for a counter trend rally.
If we can break above $200, then there's little resistance above.
I think the highest probability is that we see $263-272 before the bounce is over so that we fill the gaps left from the move down.
There's one gap at $205 and another at $258.
I think if btc can rally into $103k-112k, that MSTR will sharply follow to the upper resistance levels.
I do not think we'll break the upper blue trend line. Then I think we'll see continuation to the downside to one of the two lower $100 range targets.
Let's see how it plays out.
MSTR Trade Setup – BTC Correlation PlayMicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR caught a strong bid in yesterday’s session, driven by upward momentum in Bitcoin (BTC). With MSTR’s heavy BTC exposure, it often mirrors crypto market trends—and right now, it’s pressing against a key resistance zone.
🟢 Setup:
We're watching the $173.00 resistance level for a potential breakout and clean retest. A successful confirmation above this zone would trigger a long spot entry. Volume confirmation and BTC’s price action will be critical for conviction.
🎯 Targets & Risk:
TP Zones: $200–$230, then $280–$320
Stop Loss: Below $155
This is a momentum-based setup tied closely to BTC’s direction. Monitoring both charts is essential for trade management.
$MSTR — Multi-Month Support in Play
NASDAQ:MSTR is sitting right on multi-month support, and it’s hard for me to see this breaking much lower. The last time we highlighted this setup, it delivered a very clean move — I’m adding it here again for reference.
This is a straightforward swing trade to hold over the next couple of months.
What I’m expecting:
* Near-term resistance around 300–350
* Bigger picture: a test of new ATHs remains on the table if momentum builds
I’m adding here and would be open to adding more if price dips closer to the yearly open.
Simple structure, defined risk, and a clear path if the market continues to firm up.
MSTR Macro analysis | The bigger picture | Long-term holdersNASDAQ:MSTR
🎯 Sentiment is low, the asset is hated and misunderstood by TradFi and retail. It’s a recipe for a bottom! Price is now below the weekly 200EMA and pivot, in wave 4, hitting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. The bears are in control.
📈 Weekly RSI hit oversold with hidden bullish divergence
👉 Analysis is invalidated if we close back below $101
Safe trading
MSTR Short-term analysis | Trading and expectationsNASDAQ:MSTR
🎯 Price dropped hard wave Y of 4, invalidating the previous analysis. Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern, but is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, a high probability bottom.
📈 Daily RSI went deep into oversold on bullish divergence
👉 Continued downside has a target of the S1 pivot, $136
Safe trading
Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: $MSTR) Might Be Gearing For A BreakoutStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) shares might be set for a bullish move albeit market drawback. With the RSI at 49 NASDAQ:MSTR needs to break the 61.8% Fib level to accentuate the next levels for $MSTR.
Since the month of June 2025, the asset has lost 66% of its value moving in tandem with CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's momentum.
In recent news, Index provider MSCI late Tuesday said it would not boot publicly traded companies with big holdings of digital assets such as bitcoin from its indexes—for now. Fans of Strategy (MSTR), the company made famous for stockpiling cryptocurrency, applauded the decision: Its stock was recently up about 4%, a bit off earlier highs.
The news removed, or at least delayed, an overhang from Strategy's shares. MSCI last fall proposed removing digital asset treasury companies, or DATCOs, from its indexes following a proliferation of firms of that ilk, saying they resemble investment funds, which aren't eligible for inclusion. That spooked investors, as analysts estimated the move could spur other index providers to follow suit and cost the company billions in outflows.
Analyst Summary
According to 15 analysts, the average rating for MSTR stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $485.86, which is an increase of 200.23% from the latest price.
About MSTR
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. It also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One.
STRATEGY Is this a 2000 Dotcom crash all over?Strategy (MSTR) has been on a strong sell-off since its November 2024 All Time High (ATH). A little more than 1 year of downtrend is classified as a Bear Cycle and it may be no coincidence that this ATH was priced marginally above Strategy's previous ATH of March 2000.
That was at the peak of the infamous Dotcom Bubble and its subsequent collapse. So are we having a 2000 crash all over again? Well, with Strategy's core business being exclusively Bitcoin related, we are poised to have a big one (since it follows BTC's Cycle to a certain extent) but not just as enormous as 2000's, which exceeded -99%, dropping the company to the brink of extinction.
Technically, we can have a correction of -90% though, which is the decline that the previous Bear Cycle in 2022 suffered. After all the dominant multi-decade pattern since the Dotcom bottom, has been a Channel Up, with the recent ATH testing its top and the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) marking its Lows, hence the best buy opportunities in the last 10 years.
As a result, our long-term Target on MSTR remains $60.00, which would be a -90% correction from the Top, while also making direct contact with the 1M MA200. P.S. Notice also the similarities between the 1M RSI sequences.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The "Siege" of Strategy (A Technical Reality Check)You want to talk about "Diamond Hands"? The chart suggests this isn't just a hold— it is a Siege.
Strategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) is the ultimate high-beta Bitcoin proxy. For a long time, leverage made it a hero. But right now, the technicals show that the same leverage is turning into a massive overhead weight.
Here is the data-driven reality of the current structure ( NASDAQ:MSTR Weekly Chart).
1️⃣ THE DATA: The "Vice Grip" 📉 We are witnessing a classic compression event. Price is being squeezed between two major technical levels:
The Floor (Support): Price is sitting exactly on the Yellow Baseline (Weekly SMA). This is the "Line in the Sand." As long as this moving average holds, the bullish trend is technically intact.
The Ceiling (Resistance): Look overhead. The candles are trapped below a dense cluster of Short-Term Moving Averages (Red/Purple lines). This represents "overhead supply"—investors looking to exit at break-even.
2️⃣ THE SIGNAL : Defensive Regime ⚠️ The chart has shifted from an Offensive structure (consistently making Higher Highs) to a Defensive structure (struggling to hold the lows).
The Implication: When an asset loses its short-term moving averages, the probability shifts from "Buy the Dip" to "Sell the Rally" until proven otherwise.
3️⃣ THE SETUP: Survival Mode 💀 Current price action is testing the Weekly Support, not bouncing from it yet. This is a critical juncture:
The Bear Case: If the Weekly SMA cracks, the "Air Pocket" opens up. There is very little structural support below this level, meaning price could enter rapid discovery mode to the downside.
The Bull Requirement: To invalidate this bearish pressure, price must reclaim the overhead resistance cluster. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.
🎯 THE VERDICT This is a "Don't Blink" situation. Technically, the floor hasn't broken yet, so the bulls are alive. But the structure is heavy. The technicals demand a successful defense of this baseline before any long-term entry can be considered safe. Watch the Yellow Line. If it breaks, the siege breaks.
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT MSTR is highly volatile and tied to BTC. A sudden spike in Bitcoin can invalidate technical bearishness instantly. This is NOT a recommendation to Short. It is a warning to watch the support level. Always use stop-losses.
👇 THE DISCUSSION: Do you think Saylor can hold the line here, or is the leverage unwinding? Let me know below!
🔥 Follow me for more institutional-grade analysis.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, portfolio management, or a solicitation to buy any assets. Trading involves significant risk. Do your own due diligence.
MSTR: Mid-term and Macro Price Structure As price holds below $344, odds favor a continuation lower to retest February lows, with later potential bounce and one more push to macro-support levels: 160/150-120 (with a potential extension to 105)
(see. recent idea on BTC price structure)
If BTC and broad market indexes show signs of stabilization and short-term strength over the coming weeks with MSTR price rising above 344, the odds are shifting to a more pronounce bounce to 400-460 resistance levels.
Weekly chart:
From a macro perspective:
as long as price remains below the 460 level, I consider the bullish trend since 2008 lows to have topped in November 2024, with current price action unfolding as part of a larger corrective Wave c.4 structure. Otherwise, If price reclaims ATH the door opens for an extension to 780-1280 resistance levels.
Monthly chart
Recent idea on BTC:
$MSTR #Strategy Inc.Looks like NASDAQ:MSTR is due a bounce probably in Q1. It's current Book/sh around $182. So P/B ratio is at 0.87 for a stock usually runs at a premium of 1.5x : 2.5x.
Having said that, and since the stock is trading below its book value because equity investors are panicking more than crypto ones, the stock is priced as if bitcoin is around 60k.
Short term target @ $182, while medium term could be around $270. Analysts still have a target of $486!
#AHMEDMESBAH #MSTR #Strategy
$MSTR - Houston, we may have a problem...NASDAQ:MSTR is sitting at a very important spot on it's daily chart. It's important to monitor and consider the moves CRYPTOCAP:BTC makes when doing any sort of analysis on $MSTR. For this chart I have a CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart linked as well and it's also not looking the prettiest .
You'll see my fibonacci set up from the March 2025 lows > July 2025 highs for NASDAQ:MSTR here.
NASDAQ:MSTR broke below the 1.272 fib-extension and attempted to get back above it over the last ~7 trading days but open and closed below it on every daily candle, the weekly candle opened below that level and looks like the chances are ever-growing that it will close below that level as well. This is not a good indicator for a bullish thesis.
There is some possible positives for bulls though, many gaps have been made along the way down to the levels we are at. There are some descending RSI wedges on a few times frames that could result in a nice breakout to the upside if this recover or reverse here.
I'll be watching these levels closely to close out the year.
If there is a break below $153 I anticipate NASDAQ:MSTR will continue to dive down more with the Next Most Likely Reversal/Support Levels being at the 1.618 extension. This could be catastrophic for NASDAQ:MSTR based on their business model and the assumption here would be that CRYPTOCAP:BTC has not reversed either.
If there is a reclamation of the 1.272 fib level along with some CRYPTOCAP:BTC support you could expect some volatile moves to the upside.
Trade idea: $MSTZ 2X inverse #MSTRThese measured moves are determined from the #cupandhandle pattern.
There is also a inverse head and shoulders pattern within the CUP section, giving further credence that we shall this pattern perform to target.
And thus see further weakness with #Saylor's #Bitcoin investment vehicle.
What goes up must come down.
The current BTC nav sits at $65,827
The premium is leaking out with the mNav at 1.34 likely to test parity






















