NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ NAS100 Analysis: Three-Drive Pattern, VWAP & Trade Plan📊 The NASDAQ 100 has been riding a strong bullish trend, pushing higher with relentless momentum. On the daily timeframe, price now looks heavily overextended 📈.
🔎 Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the overextension is even more apparent. In trending markets, we often observe a three-drive pattern (sometimes a fourth) before an aggressive correction occurs.
⚡ I’m keeping an eye out for a sharp pullback. If price finds support and confirms with a bullish break of market structure, this could present a high-probability long entry setup 🚀.
📹 In the video, I also dive into how I use the VWAP and Fibonacci retracement tools. Both are powerful indicators that provide valuable insight and a trading edge 🔧.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
NASDAQ September's Channel Up targets 24900.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the September 02 Low and at the moment it is unfolding its 2nd Bullish Leg following the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce on September 17.
Based on the previous 4H MA50 Bullish Leg, the sequence should peak below the 2.382 Fibonacci extension at a maximum +3.96% rise. Our Target is slightly below those at 24900.
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Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
QQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)- System metrics show the market transitioning into the initial phase of overheating.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPY : Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)- System metrics show the market transitioning into the initial phase of overheating.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold SPY(+QQQ) and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of SSO(+QLD) and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
Bitcoin Trade of the Week: Liquidity Rules the MarketOne of the most decisive factors for markets right now is the expansion of liquidity. The growth of global M2 remains evident, particularly in China, where the economy faces a deflationary backdrop that forces authorities to maintain – and even expand – both monetary and fiscal stimulus. Ultimately, these flows permeate global financial markets and, as I’ve explained on several occasions, liquidity is the fuel that drives asset prices.
A Parallel with 2024
What we are observing today shows remarkable similarities with what happened in 2024. Back then, the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts marked a turning point. Even a moderate 25-basis-point cut triggered a rebound that coincided with a technical consolidation phase in Bitcoin, shaped as a descending channel.
Later, in November 2024, when the Fed accelerated the move with a 50-basis-point cut, the result was a much more aggressive bullish impulse.
Today, we find ourselves in an environment with rising probabilities of further cuts in upcoming Fed meetings, which could once again act as a catalyst.
Correlation Context with the Nasdaq 100
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is printing all-time highs, reflecting the strong risk appetite in tech assets. Bitcoin, in contrast, remains slightly behind its own highs. This divergence can be interpreted as a window of opportunity: if additional liquidity is confirmed through another rate cut, the momentum could spill over into Bitcoin and provide the strength needed to form a technical reversal structure—very similar to the inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern observed in 2024.
Trading Strategy
Entry Zone: 111,906.44
Stop Loss (SL): 108,607.83
Take Profit (TP): 130,383.16
What Could Derail the Nasdaq 100 Uptrend?The chart shows the US100 (Nasdaq 100, daily timeframe) extending its bullish momentum within a rising channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure:
The index has been in a steady uptrend since rebounding from its April lows, with price action respecting the boundaries of the ascending channel. It remains above both the 50-day SMA (23,416) and the 200-day SMA (21,481), confirming strong bullish structure.
Support Levels:
The lower channel boundary around 23,500 is immediate dynamic support.
The 50-day SMA provides further backing below that.
A key horizontal support is at 21,150, near the 200-day SMA, which marks the broader trendline base.
Resistance Levels:
The upper channel boundary near 24,500 is the immediate resistance.
A breakout above this region could extend gains toward 25,000, the next psychological target.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD remains positive, confirming upward momentum.
RSI (68.7) is approaching overbought levels but still has room before signaling exhaustion.
Outlook:
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the trend. While the RSI hints at stretched conditions, momentum remains strong, and as long as price holds above 23,500, the path of least resistance points toward 24,500–25,000.
-MW
NAS100 Pullback into Fibonacci Zone: Watching for Bullish Break📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Update 📊
The NAS100 is in a strong bullish trend 🟢📈, clearly visible on the 4H chart ⏰ with consistent higher highs and higher lows 🔼🔼.
Currently, price has pulled back 🔽 right into my optimal entry zone 🎯 based on the Fibonacci retracement 🔢. From here, I’ll be watching closely for a bullish break of structure (BOS) 🔓 on the 15M timeframe ⏰ — that would be my signal to look for a long entry 🚀.
⚠️ This breakdown is educational only and not financial advice. 📚
NASDAQ Approaching a critical +1 year Resistance.Nasdaq (NDX) is close to hitting our 24500 bullish target, which as we explained on our previous analysis represents a +6.78% rise, the technical Bullish Leg of the Channel Up that started back in mid-May.
This pattern is however headed towards a +1 year Resistance level, the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the July 11 2024 High. Technically, we should be expecting a rejection there and pull-back towards at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), if not the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where an identical Channel Up in 2024 that topped on December 16 2024, found Support at.
Even the 1D RSI sequences among the two patterns look similar. As a result, there are high probabilities to see a short-term correction there, which will in turn fuel the end-of-year rally. Our new medium-term Target is 25000.
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NASDAQ 100: A Tipping Point on the 4H ChartKey Takeaway
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) is at a critical juncture, hovering at a potential inflection point around the 24,000 level. A clear breakout above or breakdown below this psychological and technical area will likely dictate the next major move for the index, presenting distinct opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Macro View
NASDAQ 100 has been in a strong rising trend channel for the medium to long term, indicating persistent investor optimism. The overall technical outlook remains positive. However, recent price action on the 4hour chart suggests a period of indecision, with the index consolidating just below its recent highs. This consolidation, combined with the emergence of a potential head and shoulders pattern, signals that a significant move is imminent.
Bearish Outlook: A Breakdown Scenario
A breakdown below the key support level at 23,800 would be a significant bearish signal. This level is crucial as it marks the lower boundary of the current consolidation zone.
• Target 1: 23,700 A move below the first key support could quickly see the index test the 23,700 level, which has acted as a previous point of interest.
• Target 2: 23,450 A break of the 23,700 support would confirm a deeper correction, with the next major target being 23,450. This level coincides with a significant volume node and previous support, making it a strong magnet for price.
Risk Management: A stoploss should be placed just above the resistance to mitigate risk in a false breakdown.
Bullish Outlook: A Breakout Scenario
The bullish case is contingent on the index successfully holding the 24,000 psychological level and breaking above the key resistance at 24,208.5.
• Target 1: 24,463 A confirmed breakout would likely propel the index toward the upper boundary of the rising channel, with a primary target of 24,463. This level represents a key extension of the current trend.
• Target 2: 24,600 A decisive move beyond 24,463 would suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum, with a secondary target at 24,600. This level aligns with a major extension and could see the index set new all-time highs.
Risk Management: A stop loss should be placed just below the support to protect against a trend reversal.
Conclusion
NASDAQ 100 is at a pivotal moment. Traders should watch for a clear break in either direction before entering a position. The 24,000 level is a critical pivot, and the ensuing price action will provide a clear roadmap for the market's next move.
PFE is forming a trough no questions asked! 3Ms is so oversold !Using only the Money flow index is dangerous game do your own analysis!...
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that uses price and volume to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a security, similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) but incorporating volume data. It's a momentum oscillator ranging from 0 to 100, with readings above 80 often suggesting an overbought market (potential sell signal) and readings below 20 indicating an oversold market (potential buy signal). Traders use the MFI to confirm price trends, identify divergences (warnings of trend reversals), and gauge investor conviction behind price moves
NAS100 Trend Analysis: From Higher Highs to a Potential Shift📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Analysis 📊
Someone recently asked me to cover the NAS100 🤔 as price action can look a little confusing right now. On the 4H chart ⏰, we’ve been trending strongly 🟢📈 throughout the week. However, as we head into the end of the week 📅, things are starting to shift.
Zooming into the 30M timeframe 🔍, price action is showing early signs of weakness ⚠️. We’ve had a high, then a higher high ⬆️, and now a lower high 🔽 — instead of a continuation of higher highs.
In the video, we take a deep dive 🎥 into market structure 🏗️, price action 💡, and the trend 📊, highlighting what to watch out for as institutions and big players wind up or unwind positions 💼 into the week’s close.
💬 Your thoughts and comments are welcome!
⚠️ This is educational only and not financial advice. 📚
S&P | 30min Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P has been pushing into new highs, but a potential double top is forming right at diagonal resistance. This is a key level for me — the confluence of structure and resistance makes this an area worth watching closely.
If the double top holds, price might first deviate through my entry range and then retest the diagonal resistance. For me to take a short, I’ll be looking for a 30-minute candle close back within the range as confirmation.
📊 Trade Plan:
RR: 3.5
Entry:6 537.4
Stop Loss: 6 543.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 515
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 511
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading double tops, I always wait for confirmation (like a close back within range). It reduces false entries and adds probability to the trade.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you think this double top will hold, or will the S&P push through resistance to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Amazon making it's way to next support $280Amazon seems to be overlooked at the moment, but it should start making bigger moves as it approaches $280 resistance (next support).
I see a lot of things that lead me to believe next year will have a big pullback in tech. Until then AMZN looks to have really good risk reward as it's still so close to it's long term trend line with revenue growth steadily increasing.
Good luck!
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday.
In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO.
1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis.
Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines.
Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips.
Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating.
Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel.
2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings)
Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal.
Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move.
3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop
Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns.
Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals.
Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ.
4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm.
Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):
This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal.
Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability):
A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative.
Trading & Investment Implication
For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity.
For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up.
For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses.
Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend.
The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent.
Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
NASDAQ If this trend-line holds, it targets 29500.Nasdaq (NDX) has it's long-term bullish trend intact as it has mainly held its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support. If it manages to hold the 1W MA20 (red trend-line) also, then it can extend the uptrend for even longer as the similarities overall with the 2020 fractal are noticeable.
As you can see, the March - April 2025 correction in particular, is very similar with the March 2020 COVID crash. Both sharp declines (-25% and -30% respectively), found Support just before hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2020 fractal managed to rebound and reached its 2.0 Fibonacci extension and even extended the uptrend to the 2.5 Fib, all while the 1W MA20 remained intact (1W candles closed above it).
Even their 1W RSI sequences are identical and even on the price action that preceded the Megaphones. As a result, we remain bullish long-term as long as the 1W MA20 holds, targeting 29500 (Fib 2.0 extension).
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NASDAQ (NQ1!): Buy It Until The Market Notifies Us Otherwise!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ looks poised to move higher. There is potential for it to make a new ATH.
Wait for pullbacks to poi's for valid long setups.
I do not see a reason to sell this market. Until there is a bearish break of market structure, buys are the ticket.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
$MSTR Swing Trade Setup: Layered Short Entries on Breakout📉 MSTR "STRATEGY INC" STOCK – Bearish Thief Plan (Swing/Scalp Setup)
⚡ Trade Setup (Bearish Pending Order Plan)
Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.)
Plan: Bearish (waiting for support breakout confirmation).
Entry Zone:
Pending breakout entry @ 320.00 ⚡
Layered “Thief” Strategy (scaling entries):
Sell Limit Layers: 340.00 / 330.00 / 320.00
You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance.
🔔 Set TradingView alerts at breakout levels to track price action.
Stop Loss (Thief Style):
Protective SL @ 360.00 (after breakout confirmation).
Adjust per your strategy & risk management.
Target Zone (Exit):
Police barricade support @ 290.00
Note: Take profit is discretionary — escape with profits at your own chosen level 🚪💰.
🔑 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy Context)
The Thief Plan = using multiple layered limit entries after a breakout for better risk/reward.
Scaling entries gives flexibility while reducing FOMO and chasing.
Exit early at support barricades or oversold traps.
📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Data Report
As of September 7, 2025
1. Retail & Institutional Sentiment 🤝
Retail: Mixed / cautious (crypto exposure volatility).
Institutional: Neutral → slightly bearish (Bitcoin correlation + regulatory risk).
Estimated Sentiment: 55% Neutral / 30% Bearish / 15% Bullish.
2. Fear & Greed Index 😨😋
Current level: Neutral ~50/100
Suggests balanced emotions → no extreme greed or fear.
3. Fundamental & Macro Scores 📈📉
Fundamental ~60/100: MSTR tied to Bitcoin trends, highly volatile.
Macro ~55/100: Pressures include crypto regulation, tech volatility, interest rates.
Bitcoin remains the key driver.
4. Market Outlook 🐂🐻
Bull Case: BTC rally → MSTR boost, institutional adoption helps.
Bear Case: Regulatory clampdowns, BTC volatility → downside pressure.
Overall: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (short-term caution).
🚀 Key Takeaways
NASDAQ:MSTR moves in sync with Bitcoin → monitor BTC charts closely.
Sentiment is not strongly bullish → short setups have edge here.
Thief layering strategy aligns with volatility.
Always respect SL & manage risk 🔐.
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase)
NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms)
NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital)
SP:SPX / NASDAQ:NDX (macro impact on tech/crypto plays)
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #BearishSetup #CryptoStocks #LayeredStrategy #ThiefPlan #BitcoinCorrelation #TradingViewIdea