Will $Aradel Aradel Fractal Setup Repeat? Down -18% from ATHARADEL’s Fractal Setup — Will History Repeat?
Is Aradel ( NSENG:ARADEL ) moving in repeating fractals? — a pattern of strong rallies, quick pauses, sharp pullbacks, and steep recoveries. Each dip in this sequence has so far created the foundation for the next rally leg, showing how market psychology often mirrors itself on the chart. Current price: 710naira/share
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The First Fractal
The first major pattern appeared when price rallied from **₦520 → ₦689 (+29%)**, followed by a mild correction of about –13%.
That retracement found support around the moving average zone, after which the stock continued its steady climb — confirming strong buyer re-entry at lower levels.
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The Current Setup
This latest fractal looks even more aggressive.
Price surged from ₦580 → ₦869 (+49%) before pulling back sharply — already down roughly –18%.
Currently, the ₦710 zone is acting as a short-term support level.
If this area holds, it could mark the end of the correction and the start of the next bullish swing.
The Fractal Projection
If history rhymes once more, the next upward leg could target the **₦950–₦1,000** resistance range — a natural extension zone aligning with prior swing highs.
However, a decisive breakdown below **₦624** would invalidate the fractal and signal a deeper retracement phase, possibly toward the longer-term trend support.
Summary
* Current support: ₦710 (key pivot)
* Fractal invalidation: ₦624
* Next potential target: ₦950–₦1,000
* Trend bias: Bullish if ₦710 holds; neutral-to-bearish if ₦624 breaks.
Fractals don’t predict price — they simply hint where institutional interest and historical rhythm may align. #ARADEL #NGX #NigerianStocks #PriceAction #FractalPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingNigeria
Nigeriastockmarket
$accesscorp Accesscorp Cup and handle pattern... bullish?This is the chart of NSENG:ACCESSCORP (Access Holdings PLC) on the weekly timeframe,
Current price: 28naira/share.
Price action is forming a cup-and-handle-like structure pattern.
* The recent move appears to be completing another **cup** formation, which is typically a bullish continuation pattern if confirmed with strong breakout volume.
* Price action is currently at neckline resistance roughly ₦28–₦29 (current level), meaning price is testing a critical breakout zone.
Key Levels to watch
Immediate Critical Resistance: ₦28 – ₦29.00 (current battle zone; a breakout here could open room for further upside).
First Target: ₦34.10 /share
Second Target: ₦40.25/share (potential measured move from fibbonacci).
Idea remains validated if this Support Zone remains respected ₦24.00 – ₦25.00 (mid-level pullback support).
#accesscorp idea is invalidated under 24naira/share
$Conoil Conoil price currently devalued - Over 45% Retracement!NSENG:CONOIL Conoil PLC is a leading downstream energy company in Nigeria, active in marketing refined petroleum products, lubricants and LPG. Latest data shows: Revenue (TTM) of ~ ₦286.2 billion, net income ~ ₦1.65 billion, P/E approximately 88.7×. The main risk: margins are under pressure, cost of sales rising, and recent performance has disappointed in short-term horizon. Conoil main strength: strong brand, wide distribution network, and established business in Nigeria’s energy sector.
After a strong parabolic rally, CONOIL is now in a corrective phase of about 45%. I’m preparing to accumulate gradually—not all at once—as price approaches long-term value areas.
The Plan:
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) slowly into weakness, targeting the 200 EMA as my final support zone. This approach reduces risk and smooths my entry cost over time.
Buy Zones:
₦230–₦200: Light entries (early DCA)
₦180–₦160: Moderate accumulation
₦160–₦145: Heavy accumulation (near 200 EMA)
Each tranche increases exposure as price nears fair value.
Why the 200 EMA?
The 200 EMA often acts as the “fair value” line—after strong trends, price tends to return here before establishing a new base. It’s where patient money usually steps back in.
Planned Targets After Reversal:
TP1 → ₦314: Retest of structural resistance
TP2/TP3 → ₦403 / ₦501: Full cycle recovery / momentum expansion. Once the trend turns, these are the resistance zones I’ll be watching.
Risk Management:
Idea invalidation if weekly candle closes below ₦145, that’s a break of structure. I’ll pause or sell off accumulation until price stabilises or forms a clear base.
Not Financial Advice!!
Technically managing Risk as a Nigeria Stock Market InvestorHow Low Can It Fall Before an Investment Decision?
Before entering a position, it's important to determine how much risk you're willing to accept. As an investor, ensure you are on the weekly timeframe
This approach helps to avoid significant losses while waiting for the right entry points based on technical and price action analysis.
Final Update on My Third Quarter Nigeria Stocks.. percentage up!Here's a summary and update on my third quarter 2025 Nigeria stock picks based on the price comparison from July to September 2025:
Q3 2025 Trading View: Nigerian Stock Picks Update
Strong Performers with Significant Gains:
- BUACEMENT: Up approximately 52%, maintaining strong momentum as a leader in the cement sector.
- ETRANZACT: Surged over 130%, showing explosive growth in the tech/payment sector partnership with FIRS.
- ELLAHLAKES: Rose by 73%, indicating a promising position in its market.
- MULTIVERSE: Grew nearly 59%, reflecting healthy gains in diversified technology.
- DANGSUGAR: Increased by about 28%, notable growth in the sugar segment.
- NB: Up nearly 19%, solid growth.
- DANGCEM: Cement sector share climbed by over 17%.
Moderate or Slight Decline:
- ARADEL: Grew by about 8.8%, steady but less pronounced growth.
- HMCALL: Slight decline of about 2.4%, stable but marginally down.
- TRANSPOWER: Minor decrease near 1.9%, holding relatively steady.
Overall Market Sentiment:
- Average gain across my nigerian stocks was 37.27% from July to September 2025, reflecting strong positive momentum through the third quarter.
- This aligns with the broader Nigerian stock market trends, where the NGX All-Share Index gained over 16% in July and sustained overall bullishness into Q3 2025 supported by growth in industrial goods, cement, and tech sectors.
- Investors continue to show confidence especially in infrastructure materials and tech/payment companies, sectors driving market capitalization growth.
Investor Takeaway:
- My Q3 2025 stock picks exhibit robust growth potential, particularly in cement, technology, and payment solutions sectors.
- Conservative performers like ARADEL provide portfolio stability, while high-growth stocks such as ETRANZACT and ELLAHLAKES offer significant upside..
See you in My Final Quarter Q4 Picks for the year 2025
Cheers!
MTN Nigeria is seriously cooling offMTN Nigeria Stock Analysis
On Monday, December 9th, 2024, MTN Nigeria experienced a significant turning point in its price action. From its all-time high of ₦320 on January 9th, 2024, the stock declined steadily until it reached a low of ₦170 on December 9th, 2024. This level, which initially acted as a major support, later became a key resistance zone.
The eventual breakout above the ₦170 resistance on 9th December 2024 marked the beginning of a strong upward rally, propelling the stock to a new peak of ₦495, just shy of the psychological ₦500 level.
Technical Outlook:
Based on current chart analysis, there is a possibility of the stock revisiting the ₦400 zone.
This level aligns with a confluence point on the resistance trendline that has been in play since May 20th, 2019, making it a critical area to watch for potential price reactions.
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Honeywell Flour Mills (NGX:HONYFLOUR) Technical OutlookHoneywell Flour Mills (NGX: HONYFLOUR) Technical Outlook
Honeywell’s stock on the NGX recently staged a strong rally after breaking through its long-standing resistance at ₦5, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of approximately ₦30.
However, the stock was unable to sustain momentum at that level and has since pulled back by about 25% from its peak, currently consolidating around a key support zone at ₦21.30.
From a technical perspective, there appears to be the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, though not immediately obvious.
If the current support level fails to hold, the price could potentially retrace towards the ₦18.50 zone (a minor support level) or possibly lower, as suggested by the chart structure.
For long-term positioning, I would be more comfortable initiating entries around the ₦15.40 zone, where the stock would be trading at a significant discount.
This level offers a more attractive risk-reward ratio for accumulation.
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Dangote Cement (DANGCEM): Key Level to Watch – ₦480Dangote Cement (DANGCEM): Key Level to Watch – ₦480
Dangote Cement’s price action is currently forming a pennant pattern, which typically signals a possible continuation of the bullish trend. However, traders and investors should pay close attention to the ₦480 zone, which may act as a critical support level.
If ₦480 holds, we could see a rebound and continuation of the uptrend.
If ₦480 fails, there is a risk of further downside before another recovery attempt.
For long-term investors, the outlook remains bullish. Dangote Cement continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals, making it a stock worth holding despite potential short-term fluctuations.
📌 This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trade and invest responsibly.
BUACEMENT failed to break its All Time HighBUACEMENT Fails to Break Its All-Time High
BUA Cement Plc (NGX: BUACEMENT) has seen significant price swings over the past two years.
The initial momentum that pushed the stock above the ₦100 mark in January 2024 carried it to an all-time high (ATH) of around ₦185. However, this rally was followed by a prolonged downtrend, with the stock declining to approximately ₦83 by March 2025.
A renewed breakout in mid-July 2025 brought BUACEMENT close to retesting its historical peak, but buying momentum was insufficient to break through the ATH.
Technical View
Resistance: ₦185 remains the critical resistance zone.
Support Levels: Watch for weakness below ₦144, which could accelerate a decline. Key zones to monitor include ₦120 and ₦100.
Strategy: A dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach around ₦120 could provide a more favorable entry point for long-term investors. Patience and discipline remain essential in this setup.
📌 This outlook is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade and invest responsibly.
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From Fish Farming to Agribusiness Giant: Ellah Lakes’ 304% Rise Ellah Lakes Plc is a Nigeria‑based agribusiness firm, once focused on fish farming but now primarily engaged in oil palm, cassava, maize, soya, and rice production and processing, operating plantations across Edo, Ondo, Enugu, Ekiti (Nigeria) and Ghana.
This asset has made roughly 304% gain since 2nd of June of this year.
The questions are:
1. Is this vertical growth sustainable?
2. Will price action be respected technically as shown on the chart?
3. Will Ellah Lake drop back to close the yellow gap? (N5.3 - N6 zone)
My final view:
After a 304% gain since June, I am now questioning the sustainability of this vertical move, key technical zones, and whether a price correction to the ₦5.3–₦6 gap is on the horizon
Trade with care
Is $TRANSPOWER Transpower devalued or of no value? 25% retraced.NSENG:TRANSPOWER Transcorp Power is a gas-fired thermal generation company operating in Nigeria and internationally. It's the owner/operator of the Ughelli Power Plant, with an installed capacity of approximately 972 MW, capable of generating around 2,500 GWh annually. Founded in 2012 (as Transcorp Ughelli Power Ltd), it became publicly listed in early 2024. It's a subsidiary of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc.
The Stock is currently devalued by 25% (With an all time high of 386) and could be undervalued. Current price: ₦286.5.
The last few months are predominantly bearish), showing sustained weakness.
My buy zone for #transpower (₦264 – ₦301), suggesting potential accumulation interest around this region and could attract bargain hunters.
First Resistance / Take Profit (TP1): ₦375.3
→ A break above ₦301 with strong volume could see price retesting this level.
Major Resistance (TP2): ₦440.7
→ If bullish momentum continues, this is the next realistic upside target.
Invalidation for this NSENG:TRANSPOWER idea is under 260/per share
Third Quarter 2025 Nigerian share picks Update..26Percentage Up!Third Quarter Price Movement Analysis Report - 1st September 2025
1. Overview
The analysis highlights percentage changes for individual stocks, the average change, and the overall portfolio change assuming equal investment across all 10.
2. Individual Stock Performance
| Stock | Previous (₦) | Current (₦) | % Change |
| -------------- | ------------ | ----------- | ----------- |
| **ARADEL** | 514.5 | 512.2 | **−0.45%** |
| **BUACEMENT** | 100.0 | 151.8 | **+51.80%** |
| **DANGSUGAR** | 48.4 | 58.0 | **+19.83%** |
| **DANGCEM** | 440.0 | 520.2 | **+18.23%** |
| **ELLAHLAKES** | 7.1 | 13.45 | **+89.44%** |
| **ETRANZACT** | 7.25 | 10.85 | **+49.66%** |
| **HMCALL** | 4.2 | 4.28 | **+1.90%** |
| **MULTIVERSE** | 8.75 | 10.90 | **+24.57%** |
| **NB** | 59.0 | 70.20 | **+19.00%** |
| **TRANSPOWER** | 320.0 | 286.5 | **−10.47%** |
3. Top Gainers and Losers
Top Gainers:
ELLAHLAKES** (+89.44%) — Small-cap rally, nearly doubled in price.
BUACEMENT** (+51.80%) — Strong institutional demand.
ETRANZACT** (+49.66%) — Fintech sector showing renewed momentum.
Moderate Gainers:
DANGSUGAR (+19.83%), NB (+19.00%), MULTIVERSE (+24.57%), DANGCEM (+18.23%).
Flat/Minor Move:
HMCALL (+1.90%), ARADEL (−0.45%).
Top Loser:
TRANSPOWER (−10.47%) — noticeable decline, likely on profit-taking.
4. Averages vs Portfolio Performance
Average of individual % changes:** **+26.35%**
→ Indicates the “average stock” in the basket rose strongly, pulled higher by extreme gainers like Ellah Lakes and BUA Cement.
5. Key Insights
1. **Small caps drive volatility:** Ellah Lakes’ +89% jump skews the average, but has limited effect on overall portfolio returns due to low nominal price.
2. **Cement stocks strong:** Both Dangote Cement (+18%) and BUA Cement (+52%) reflect strong sector sentiment.
3. **Fintech momentum:** ETranzact’s +49% surge suggests renewed investor confidence in payment platforms.
4. **Blue chips steady:** Nigerian Breweries and Dangote Sugar both posted \~+20% gains, showing defensive strength.
5. **Weakness in Power sector:** Transcorp Power fell −10%, the only significant drag in the basket.
Consolidated Hallmark Holding (CONHALL) is downConsolidated Hallmark Holding (CONHALL) is down.
It’s now the third week since this asset began cooling off after rallying to the ₦6.20 zone.
From a technical perspective, and observing the ascending trendline that began on November 1st, 2024, I am monitoring potential entry levels around ₦4.22 and ₦4.00. These entries will be executed using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy.
Please note the key trendlines highlighted on my chart for context.
I’d be glad to connect and hear your perspectives.
Kindly share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like and share.
AIICO, this is the pullback I have been waiting forThe strong breakout rewarded investors with over 120% ROI from the 4th of August 2025 before this massive -26% pullback
While I am bullish on the Nigerian insurance sector because of the new insurance reform, I am patiently waiting for some of this stock to retrace for my entry for a ride into 2026
I would love to start buying AIICO from N5 to N2.3 using the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy
The yellow zone is my entry zone
I would love to hear from you.
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Here is the pullback for Cornerstone Here is the pullback for Cornerstone
The Nigerian insurance sector is seriously under a positive catalyst that is pushing insurance stocks
I am patiently waiting for a strong pullback for my long-term entries for a ride into 2026. This is because the breakout from the N5 zone was too vertical, and there was a need for a retest, technically speaking
Contrary to my previous buy entry of N3.5, I am ready to start buying at N5 per stock.
I hope to connect with you.
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Third Quarter 2025 Nigerian share picks Update....Percentage Up!Here's a summary and update on the third quarter 2025 Nigeria stock picks based on the price comparison between July and August - 1month:
Q3 2025 Trading View: Nigerian Stock Picks Update
Strong Performers with Significant Gains:
BUACEMENT: Up 48%, showing strong momentum as a cement sector leader.
DANGSUGAR: Increased by nearly 37%, notable growth in the sugar sector.
ELLAHLAKES: Shares rose over 36%, a promising performer.
DANGCEM: Cement stock up about 20%, continuing solid growth.
ETRANZACT: Up 24%, showing steady improvement in the tech/payment sector.
MULTIVERSE: Grew by 24%, indicating healthy gains in diversified tech.
NB: +28.8%, good growth for the banking/finance sector.
Moderate or no Growth:
ARADEL: Small increase of about 1%, steady but minimal movement.
HMCALL: Stable with a minor 1.4% increase, remaining consistent.
TRANSPOWER: No price change, holding steady for now.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Average gain across all picks is approximately +22%, a strong positive trend overall.
Indicates a bullish sentiment on these carefully selected third-quarter stocks.
Opportunity exists to take advantage of higher momentum sectors like cement, sugar, and tech/payment companies.
Trading Takeaway:
The Q3 2025 picks demonstrate robust growth potential, especially in key sectors like construction materials and tech/payments. Conservative performers provide portfolio stability while high growth stocks offer upside. Continual monitoring for volume and market news is recommended to capitalize on gains and manage risks moving forward.
How I view Dangote CementHow I view Dangote Cement.
Technically:
N480 & N400 have been a strong psychological resistance zone for some time now.
Fundamentally:
The news that Dangote is planning to build a deep-sea port is a positive catalyst if it comes to fruition.
My entry:
I am looking at a buy entry from N400 using DCA.
I will continue to add if it falls below my N400 entry.
Trade with care
$MULTIVERSE Multiverse over 60% retracement from All time HighNSENG:MULTIVERSE Multiverse Mining & Exploration Plc focuses on quarrying solid minerals (granite, zinc, tin, tantalite, barite, columbite, gold, etc.) in Nigeria, with operations in Ogun and Nasarawa State.
Currently NSENG:MULTIVERSE has lost over 60% of its value from an all time high of 24.50/share and is in consolidation.
Current price: 9.85naira/share
Low risk Buy zone levels is between 6.8naira - 10naira/share
Expecting #Multiverse to retest previous resistances at 17naira/share and 24naira/share if price attempts a recovery.
📈 Key Levels
Breakout above ₦10.20 Breakout zone – key resistance turning into support if broken
₦17.1 TP1 – next major resistance (target)
₦24.5 TP2 – higher resistance / bull target
Invalidation of this idea is a weekly close under 6.8naira/share
MTN Nigeria Stock: A Strong Rally smashing the roofMTN Nigeria Stock: A Strong Rally smashing the roof
MTN Nigeria stock has demonstrated remarkable growth since trading around the 170 naira zone in December 2024.
As of December 9th, the stock was priced at 170 naira but has steadily rallied over the months to surpass several resistance levels (N320, N357 & N386).
Based on this momentum, the nearest most significant support zone is N386. This is a zone with confluence between an ascending resistance trendline and a support level.
The question is.
1. Can the buy continue with this vertical push-up up
2. Will the N386 confluence zone continue to hold this stock from falling?
Trade with care.
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MTN Nigeria Stock Analysis and OutlookMTN Nigeria Stock Analysis and Outlook
MTN Nigeria has shown a strong recovery, breaking out of its prolonged downtrend in early December 2024. Since then, the stock has delivered an impressive rally, gaining nearly 70% in value.
As of the latest trading session, MTN Nigeria closed at ₦279. From a technical analysis standpoint, there is a possibility of a short-term pullback toward a key support zone (indicated in yellow on the chart). Should this level hold, the stock may continue its upward momentum with a potential push toward the ₦300 psychological resistance level.
While the medium-term trend remains bullish, it is important to approach this with caution—particularly for short-term traders. Implementing a well-placed stop loss remains crucial to manage downside risks effectively in volatile market conditions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
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MY BUY OUTLOOK FOR FIDELITY BANK NIGERIA stockMY BUY OUTLOOK FOR FIDELITY BANK NIGERIA stock.
This week has been a bleeding week for Fidelity stock despite a 64.2% year-on-year increase in gross earnings to N315.4 billion in Q1 2025.
I will patiently wait for entry at N16.5 zone and SL at N15.5 zone.
RR of 1:4
Trade with care.
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