Finall Pullback on $NIOLooking back at the history of NIO and pullback patterns, after every 3 pullbacks we get a good run up or dip down. With the several recent positive catalysts I think we are due for a run up after a possible pullback to $38. Feel free to share your thoughts. It also resembles an inverse head & shoulders which gives me hope. Regardless, my position in NIO will remain as an investor and I will not sell my shares.
NIO
$NIO Target 54.80 for 31.6%$NIO Target 54.80 for 31.6%
Or next add at 38.66
No add here… just looking where to buy next…
Target is the same...
But NIO, feel free to do something fun soon.....
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
$NIO prepping for a moveNIO just reported great earnings - EPS beat , REV beat, REV growth beat, and Deliveries beat , vs. Analyst estimates.
Q3 outlook also looks good.
Technically looking at the weekly chart, NIO appears to be respecting the 50MA as support and decreasing volume implies a larger move imminent to push out of the "wedge" or flag formation. Given the fundamentals I'm long the 8/20 45c and 9/17 50c here. Assuming this is the Wyckoff Phase D : Back up and last point of support, I am expecting Phase E and a breakout next week.
Break of $41 invalidates idea and could suggest a move to $34
NIO: Post-earnings analysis!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today, after earnings! Even in moments like this, with high volatility, Technical Analysis still makes sense.
First, in the 1h chart, NIO dropped sharply only to retest the previous support at $ 41.59 and now it is bouncing back up. This is a good sign, and if we manage to close above the $ 43.43 area, the previous support level, it’ll be perfect.
However, the bias is slightly bearish in the 1h chart , as we have lower highs/lows, and the 21 ema is pointing down, and it is working as a resistance too. It won’t be an easy task for NIO to reverse this sentiment, but it is definitely possible.
The daily chart offers us more clues:
Since the beginning of the month, NIO has been trading sideways, dancing around the 21 ema. Now we are just at the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement , and if NIO is about to react, now is the best time to do so.
The volume is quite low by the time I’m writing this analysis, and even considering the trading day is not over yet, I still think the volume is too low.
So far, we have no confirmation of a meaningful reaction, but maybe we’ll see something good around these support levels soon.
If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if it helped you!
Thank you very much!
NIO's Strong Q2 2021 Results: Revenue Up 127%, Net Loss HalvesThe electric vehicle maker generated CNY 8.45 billion this quarter, getting closer to break even.
On August 11, 2021, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker NIO (NIO:NYSE) released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021, with most key figures improving year on year:
The total revenue hit CNY 8.45 billion, up by 127.2% from Q2 2020 and by 5.8% quarter on quarter.
CNY 7.91 was made from car sales: NIO beat analysts' estimates, completing 21,896 vehicle deliveries in the second quarter.
Net loss reached CNY 587.2 million, shrinking by 50.1% from Q2 2020 but increasing by 30.2% from Q1 2021.
R&D cost grew by 62.1% year on year, reaching CNY 880 million; it now equals 10.4% of the firm's total revenue.
While world-leading EV maker Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) is facing demand-side issues in the Chinese market, its local competitors are jumping in to fill the void. Through supply chain optimization and effective marketing messaging, NIO is solidifying its position as the domestic champion in the EV market's premium segment.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
gbpnzd - potential longmy own prediction - (this upcoming week)
gbp - bullish
nzd - bearish
as long as h4 wick engulfs and closes above the ascending downwards trendline price should continue going up towards 2.0 even 2.02
looking at the chart you can see GBP break out of its downtrend multiple times and based on its current setup it may be looking to break out once again.
best of luck trading this week everyone!
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trade at your own risk - not financial advice
Auto Sales - Off the Cliff - TESLA FanBois ImmunityMartha's Vineyard parties are Legend.
While Faucci suggests large groups of people gather without
wearing masks... many will die.
"These people are dangerous."
After all there people eat at Sonic and many went to a
Community College.
Papers please, Vaccine Passport Por Favor.
The China Passenger Car Association reported that Tesla's sales
in China fell to 8,621 cars in July, down 69.7% from June sales.
Tesla Vehicle sales accounted for 3.9% of July sales of EV's in China
A decline of 12.6% Month over Month.
Tesla believes that China will be 40% of deliveries for Tesla in 2022.
With respect to the Long Con and Tesla - Tomorrow never dies, there
is always "Hope" projections will deliver.
They will not.
NIO - BUY BUY BUY!!! Been a NIO bull since day 1 and right now I am more bullish than I ever was.
Here is my detailed technical analysis of NIO's price action, and what's very noticeable about NIO's price action is that every time it fakes out towards the downside, the price tends to then turn bullish and continue towards the upside. Most recently the price faked out again and has broken out of a descending trendline while also retesting a very strong ascending trendline line creating confluence. What makes NIO even more bullish is that looking at price action between May 11 2021, and May 24 2021, you can see that another fakeout was spotted right along/below the same ascending trendline price is currently retesting, which on multiple occasions price decided to respect the ascending trendline. Another thing is that with NIO's overall setup, there seems to be a giant cup and handle forming.
3 days until NIO's earnings as well.
Share & Like - and leave your thoughts on NIO in the comments !
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trade at your own risk - not financial advice
NIO bull-run will continueNIO on the weekly already fired off a squeeze, but in order to see if that squeeze will continue, we need to look at it from the daily time frame. On the daily time we can see that a squeeze and a crossover via the oscillator is about to occur. I think this is a great time to enter if you are later than others regarding NIO.
Bullish Signals
-Squeeze
-Crossover via oscillator
Price Targets
-1st 50
-2nd 55
NIO Sprints Back into Growth Mode – No Regulatory Risk Thus FarNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, up 124.48% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month.
● We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock.
● The methodology includes a car sales forecast and average selling prices.
● Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced.
● None of the currently acute regulatory risks apply to NIO.
Introduction
NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. In 2021, NIO has been solidifying a high premium profile in China, launching a new model, the ET7. NIO has also recently started shipping the ES8 to Norway, with global expansion ambitions. This article follows an approach similar to that we used in our latest Xpeng analysis, estimating the value of the stock based on its projected future sales performance.
Revenue estimation
In this section, we will project NIO's revenue by 2030 and use the 2022 figure to evaluate the stock's current investment potential. The revenue will be calculated by multiplying projected car deliveries with average selling prices.
The calculation of whole fleet (including ES6, EC6, ES8 and ET7) sales is based on a top-down methodology. It starts with a forecast of light vehicle sales in China. According to CAAM (link in Chinese), China's light-vehicle sales will hit 22.2 million in 2021. Under an assumption of slowing economic growth affecting the auto market, we estimate the growth rate will decline to 4% gradually. The market will reach 32.6 million in 2030.
Speaking of the market share, we assume NIO can reach 2.4% of the total market by 2030. It results from the fact that William Li, the founder of NIO, has aligned the company's goals with those of iconic brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. We linearized that number and estimated NIO's 2022 market share and deliveries, which will account for 0.6% and 152,066 units, respectively.
To calculate the revenue, we also need to project the average selling price (ASP). Historically, NIO's ASP has been declining as new models have been rolled out. This trend will continue, whereas we think the ASP will remain higher than CNY 300,00 per vehicle. We set a declining rate for ASP calculation, from -2% in 2021 to -0.5% in 2030. The ASP in 2022 will be CNY 328,000.
Per this projection, NIO's 2022 vehicle sales will be CNY 50 billion. Apart from car sales, NIO also generates revenue from selling charging facilities and related services, data, insurance and merchandise. These segments have correlated to vehicle sales and shown a faster growth pace. Thus, we project a slightly increasing percentage of revenue from selling them. In 2020, the number was 6%, and we allocated 7% and 9% for 2022 and 2030, respectively.
In total, NIO is expected to make CNY 53.5 billion (USD 8 billion) in revenue in 2022. Similar to our Xpeng analysis, we multiplied NIO's PS ratio in 2022 by nine (referring to the Street's average expectations). Its fair market capitalization target is thereby around USD 74 billion.
Risks
NIO has recently been indirectly involved in the regulatory crackdown-related narrative. We think investors' massive selling may insignificantly hurt the company's business. To specify all the possible risks, we summarize all the incidents concerning Chinese concept stocks within this year.
The antitrust and other new regulations are the key obstacle imposed by the central government. Some famous 'victim' cases include Tencent Music's copyrights, Alibaba's 'pick one from two' strategy and Meituan's rider employment and other issues. Obviously, the NEV market in China is still in its infancy (compared with ICE cars). NIO is certainly not a monopoly.
Data/cybersecurity concerns are also not suitable for NIO. In early July 2021, it was reported that Didi Global had illegally collected users' personal data. Clearly, the ride-hailing giant possesses huge chunks of users' travel information. However, NIO is also collecting data that seems less significant than important route data handled by legitimate third-party providers like map products of Baidu and the likes of AutoNavi.
NIO and its peers won't see anything like what happened to the country's edtech industry either: the central government, which is ''seeking to decrease workloads for students and overhaul a sector that has been 'hijacked by capital,'" is rather interested in the nationwide EV adoption.
In short, NIO, much like any local EV maker, is not exposed to these major risks.
Apart from regulatory risk, supply chain issues are worth discussing. The issues seem to remain controllable, but investors need to keep eyes on them – the component shortage will be a hot topic in the upcoming Q2 earnings calls.
Conclusion
Among Chinese concept stocks, NIO is a company with a solid product line, growing sales and great prospects. The stock has gone down and has remained volatile since the beginning of 2021. Suffering from the chip shortage, it is currently fairly priced. And is well set to gain more in the following quarters.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.






















