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NVDA

NVIDIA – Enormous Pressure After Reaching the Stretch LevelBetween July 31 and August 13, price kept nagging at the white U-MLH, but there wasn’t enough strength to break through. From there, price began to drift lower, pressing against the red U-MLH. The close last Friday failed to break below the red U-MLH – a clear sign of weakness! If the green mini-trendline gives way and the white ¼-Line moves above price as well, NVDA could be ripe for a short setup. Let’s stalk the trade.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by HowToChart
NVDA: Undervalued AI Chip Leader Amid #YoungInvestorPortfolio?NVDA: Undervalued AI Chip Leader Amid #YoungInvestorPortfolio? $209 Target in Sight? 🚀 NVDA trades at $178.19 (+1.45%), undervalued with dominant AI GPU demand tying into Reddit young investor buzz on portfolios—analysts forecast average $209 target, 17% upside from robust data center growth, questioning if Blackwell rollout sparks breakout. 📈 **Fundamental Analysis** EPS $3.51 ttm with revenue $165.218B and 71.55% YoY growth; P/E 52.56 reflects relative undervaluation in high-growth tech, DCF models indicate 15-20% intrinsic premium on AI expansions. - **Positive:** Leading AI market share; strong cash flow generation. - **Negative:** High capex demands; supply chain vulnerabilities. **SWOT Analysis** **Strengths:** Innovative GPU technology; data center dominance. **Weaknesses:** Valuation sensitivity to growth slowdowns. **Opportunities:** Expanding AI adoption; strategic partnerships. **Threats:** Regulatory scrutiny; intensifying competition. **Technical Analysis** Chart in uptrend with strong volume support. Price: $178.19, VWAP $177. Key indicators: - RSI: 53 (neutral, upside potential). - MACD: Positive signal line. - Moving Averages: Above 50-day $170, 200-day $150 (bullish). Support/Resistance: $170/$185. Patterns/Momentum: Ascending triangle targeting $200. 📈 Bullish. **Scenarios and Risk Management** - **Bullish:** AI demand surge to $200; DCA on pullbacks below $175 for averaged gains. - **Bearish:** Chip shortages drop to $160. - **Neutral:** Consolidates at $180 awaiting earnings. Risk Tips: Stops at 5% below entry, limit to 2% portfolio, diversify tech exposure, DCA to handle volatility. ⚠️ **Conclusion/Outlook** Bullish if AI trends accelerate. Watch Q3 earnings. Fits tech theme with #YoungInvestorPortfolio upside. Take? Comment!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by DCAChampion
But Ser, Wen Moon? Wen Alt Season?But Ser, Wen Moon? Wen Alt Season? Why 2024 Was Your Alt Season (And Why the Next One Is Years Away) The Uncomfortable Truth: Alt Season Already Happened Everyone’s still asking “wen alt season?” The painful reality: it already came and went in 2024. The Altcoin Season Index hit 88 in Dec 2024 - its highest since 2021 - before collapsing to 12 by April 2025 - that was your alt season. The memecoin mania, the AI‑narrative pumps, the handful of legitimate winners like CRYPTOCAP:HBAR , CRYPTOCAP:SOL (at the time of writing still up 10x from 2023 lows), CRYPTOCAP:SUI , COINBASE:SEIUSD , CRYPTO:INJUSD , CRYPTO:RENDERUSD and a few others - that was it. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ES It peaked symbolically when the President of the United States launched his own memecoin $BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT. Pause and think about that for a minute: when the most powerful person on earth is shilling crypto memes, you’re not early anymore - you’re late. Most people missed it because they were waiting for a 2017‑style blow‑off where everything pumped indiscriminately. Instead, 2024 was surgical: only the strongest assets with real utility or meme community power survived. The rest 95-99% of the market - stayed the same laughable junk it’s always been. This wasn’t broad‑based euphoria; it was natural selection. Why Traditional Finance Beat Crypto This Cycle Here’s the overlooked truth: the AI rally happened at the same time as Bitcoin’s halving rally. Faced with a choice between dead altcoins hoping for a 2021 revival or BIVA:NVDA and BMV:MSFT printing real revenue, smart money chose AI and equities over dead altcoins. Retail followed. The AI trade sucked the oxygen out of crypto, leaving most alts gasping for liquidity. NASDAQ:NVDA added $2.2 trillion in market cap in 2024. NASDAQ:APP surged +758%. NASDAQ:PLTR and NASDAQ:MSFT rode AI adoption to record highs. INDEX:ETHUSD path tells the story: it clawed back to its 2021 highs - just enough for whales to exit three years of underwater bags. Mission accomplished. Retail still waiting for $10K ETH? Game over. In September alone, COINBASE:ETHUSD saw it largest ETF NASDAQ:ETHA outflow and this money didn't go to alts it was out of the market - Institutions don’t rotate into alts - they rotate out of crypto entirely... The Institutional Playbook vs. Retail Delusion The 2024–25 rally was institutional, not retail. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust NASDAQ:IBIT has seen $60B+ inflows since Jan 2024, holding ~756,000 BTC. Fidelity’s CBOE:FBTC holds ~$22B. Together, they dominate >70% of U.S. ETF flows. When Blackrock NYSE:BLK and Fidelity CFI:FBTC buy billions in Bitcoin ETFs, they’re not chasing 100x moonshots. They’re happy with 2–3x on massive positions. In institutional terms, a 5x is a career‑making home run. This isn’t 2017 or 2013 anymore. Crypto is a multi‑trillion dollar ecosystem where retail’s few thousand dollars are statistical noise. The old playbook - “Bitcoin pumps, then alts follow” - is dead - it assumed retail drove the cycle. Today, institutions hold the keys, and like i said they don’t rotate into your favorite altcoin. They rotate into other asset classes entirely. The Timing Mismatch: Why Q4 Narratives Are Dead Wrong Veterans keep calling for a Q4 2025 blow‑off top, stuck on the 2013/2017 template. But this cycle is different: The 4th halving was April 19, 2024 - not May. IG:BITCOIN typical 1.5‑year post‑halving peak landed in Q3 2025 (~$124K), not Q4. The cycle is already complete. Altcoins only thrive when IG:BITCOIN highs are fueled by retail FOMO and leverage. This cycle was powered by measured institutional accumulation. Without retail mania, alts had no fuel. The few that did pump ( CRYPTOCAP:HBAR , CRYPTOCAP:SUI , CRYPTOCAP:SOL , BINANCE:RENDERUSDT ) had real narratives or tech advantages. In a mature market, only quality survives. The Next Real Alt Season: Q4 2026 and Beyond Here’s the contrarian call: the next true alt season won’t arrive until Q4 2026 at the earliest. Why? Because it will take a global financial crisis bottom, central banks printing like mad, and risk appetite returning before crypto regains its role as the speculative playground. That’s when we’ll see a decade‑long melt‑up that makes 2017 look quaint. By then, 95% of today’s projects will be gone. Regulation will be clearer. Infrastructure will be mature. The survivors of this purge will form the foundation of the next supercycle. But first, the forest fire has to clear the dead wood. What This Means for Your Bags If you’re still holding 2021 altcoins waiting for a miracle, you’re fighting the last war. Smart money has rotated out. Retail is exhausted. Institutions aren’t coming to save your bags. Most alts will bleed slowly into irrelevance - not with dramatic crashes, but with grinding decline as liquidity and attention flow elsewhere. The few survivors will be those with genuine utility, strong teams, and institutional interest. Everything else is destined for zero. The New Playbook: Cash Is King For the next 12–18 months, the winning strategy isn’t catching falling knives. It’s preservation of capital and patience. Hold cash. Maybe some Bitcoin as a hedge. Wait for the real bottom - when fear replaces hope and quality trades at fire‑sale prices. The casino days are over. The market has grown up. And grown‑up markets don’t hand out infinite money glitches to anyone with an internet connection. The future belongs to those who adapt to the new rules - not those who keep playing by the old ones. Bottom line: Alt season already happened in 2024. The next one won’t come until 2026+. Plan accordingly.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by niclaxfx
7
EUR USD AUD NVDA MSFT AVGO S&P500 BTC XRP Weekly InsightsIn this video, we dive into the key market movements and outlooks for major financial instruments over the past week. Highlights include: Analysis of currency pairs: EUR/USD and AUD Trends and technical setups for leading tech stocks: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO The S&P 500’s performance and what it suggests about broader market direction Developments in cryptocurrency, with a focus on BTC and XRP Whether you’re a trader, investor, or just interested in macro markets, this video gives you a consolidated, data-driven snapshot of where things stand and what to watch next.
Short
by MartketsTitan
NVIDIA (NVDA) – RSI Trendline Breakout Signals Momentum Shift NVIDIA has staged a sharp move higher, reclaiming momentum after weeks of sideways-to-lower action. What makes this setup notable is not just the price, but the RSI trendline breakout. Key Points: RSI Trendline Breakout: The RSI broke above a descending trendline, suggesting momentum is shifting back in favour of buyers. Volume Confirmation: The breakout coincided with a strong volume spike – often an early tell that institutions are stepping in. Price Action: Price is now retesting the all-time high zone (~$184–185). A sustained close above this level could open the door for further upside. Short-Term View: As long as NVDA holds above the $175–177 support zone, the bias remains bullish with potential for acceleration if RSI pushes toward the overbought zone. Watchlist Levels: Upside breakout trigger: $185+ (new all-time high) Immediate support: $175 Momentum invalidation: Below $175 This is a classic case of how RSI trendline analysis can provide an early signal, often before price fully confirms the breakout.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Gautam_Mazumdar
US30 hits new all-time high amid robust AI fever US equities rallied to fresh record highs, fueled by the Fed’s rate cut, resilient US economic data, and optimism over progress in US-China trade negotiations. Ongoing enthusiasm for AI also boosted technology stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) drove the strongest market reaction after announcing a \$5 bln purchase of more than 4% of Intel (INTC). Sentiment was further buoyed by reports that Chinese regulators halted their antitrust probe into Google (GOOGL), ending a long-running investigation into Android’s dominance. US30 maintained a solid uptrend within the ascending channel, setting a new high. The index holds above both EMAs, indicating the potential continuation of the bullish momentum. If US30 breaches above the 46415 high, the index may gain upward momentum toward the psychological resistance at 47000. Conversely, if US30 breaks below EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound, the index could retreat toward 45000.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by inkicho_exness
Bullish Pullback Attack – NVIDIA Heist Plan for Escape Loot!🚨💻 NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Heist Plan 🎭 | Swing & Day Trade Robbery 💰⚡ 🌟 Hey Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🌟 Welcome back to the Thief Trading Den where we don’t trade… we steal from the market vaults! 🏦💸 🔥 Asset: NVIDIA (NVDA) 🎭 Heist Type: Swing / Day Trade 🔑 Plan: Bullish Pullback Robbery 🗝️ Entry (Breaking into the Vault) First lockpick entry above 167.00+ 🔓 Retest & pullback = perfect robbery spot Thief layering strategy: stack multiple buy limit orders (layered entry like robbers tunneling from multiple sides 🛠️). Any price level? Yes, thieves adapt—grab loot wherever the window cracks open! 🏃‍♂️💨 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route 🚪) Official Thief SL: @ 161.00 ⚠️ But dear Thief OG’s, adjust based on your risk appetite, loot bag size & startergy 🎭 Remember, no thief survives without an escape route! 🚁 🎯 Target (The Electric Fence Escape ⚡) The High Voltage Electric Shock Fence is guarding the treasure @ 196.00 ⚡⚡ Snatch your profits before the fence fries the loot 🔥 Escape fast, spend faster, rob smarter 💸🍾 ⚠️ Thief Alert 🚨 The market guards (short sellers) are patrolling heavy—don’t get caught in their traps 🕵️‍♂️ Use layered limit orders, scale out profits, and keep your SL tight! A true thief never overstays at the crime scene 👀 💥 Boost this Robbery Plan 💥 Every like & comment powers the Thief Trading Family 🏆 Stay sharp, stay sneaky & let’s rob NVIDIA together! 🤑🎭
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by The-Thief
NVDA Setup Explained: Layered Entry + Clear SL/TP Levels😎 NVDA Thief’s Wealth Heist: Swing/Day Trade Blueprint 🚀 Asset: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 📈Vibe: Bullish, sneaky, and ready to snatch profits with style! 💰 Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the Thief’s OG Wealth Strategy Map for NVDA! This is a fun swing/day trading plan designed to grab liquidity like a master thief. Let’s break down this bullish setup with a double bottom pullback, layered entries, and a cheeky escape plan. Ready to outsmart the market? 🕵️‍♂️ 📊 Market Analysis: Why NVDA? NVDA is riding a bullish wave 🌊, confirmed by a double bottom pullback pattern and a sneaky liquidity grab at key support levels. The stock’s momentum is screaming “UP!” as buyers step in to defend the price. This setup is perfect for swing or day traders looking to capitalize on NVIDIA’s tech-fueled surge. 💻 🗺️ The Thief’s Plan: Bullish Heist Strategy 🎯 Entry Strategy:Deploy the Thief’s Layering Tactic with multiple buy limit orders to maximize your entry precision. Suggested price levels: $172.00 $174.00 $176.00 $178.00 Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite and market conditions. The more, the merrier! 🧑‍💼 🛑 Stop Loss (SL):Set a Thief’s SL at $168.00 to protect your loot. Note: Dear Thief OGs, this SL is my suggestion, but you’re the boss of your trades! Adjust based on your risk tolerance and let the profits roll. 💸 🎉 Take Profit (TP):Aim for the juicy $195.00 target, where we expect strong resistance, potential overbought conditions, and a possible trap for the unprepared. Lock in those hard-earned gains and escape like a pro! 🏃‍♂️ Note: This TP is my call, but you do you! Take profits at your own pace and keep the cash flowin’. 😎 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD) To boost your market awareness, keep an eye on these correlated assets: NASDAQ:AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): NVDA’s chipmaking cousin often moves in tandem. A bullish NVDA could signal strength in AMD. 📡 NASDAQ:SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF): This ETF tracks the semiconductor sector, including NVDA. Watch for sector-wide momentum. 📊 NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): NVDA’s a heavy hitter in this tech-heavy ETF. QQQ’s trend can confirm NVDA’s direction. 🚀 Key Correlation Point: NVDA’s performance is tied to the broader semiconductor and tech sector. If AMD or SMH shows bullish patterns, it reinforces NVDA’s upside potential. Conversely, weakness in QQQ could signal caution. Stay sharp, thieves! 🕵️ 🛠️ Why This Setup Rocks Double Bottom Pullback: A textbook bullish reversal pattern, signaling strong buying interest. 📉➡️📈 Liquidity Grab: The market’s attempt to shake out weak hands before the real move up. We’re smarter than that! 😏 Layered Entries: Spread your risk across multiple price levels for a smoother ride. 🎢 Risk Management: Clear SL and TP levels keep your heist disciplined and profitable. 🧠 ⚠️ Disclaimer This Thief Style Trading Strategy is just for fun and educational purposes! I’m not a financial advisor, and trading involves risks. Make your own decisions, manage your risk, and trade responsibly. Let’s keep the vibes high and the losses low! 😜 ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NVIDIA #NVDA #Trading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #StockMarket #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by The-Thief
Nvidia - The rally is still not over!🔌Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) still heads much higher: 🔎Analysis summary: For the past decade, Nvidia has perfectly been respecting a major bullish rising channel formation. Currently, Nvidia is still far away from the upper red resistance trendline, which indicates another potential move higher. Just understand that the trend is your closest friend. 📝Levels to watch: $200 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
23
TSLA path to 550/650 USD Breakout Still Pending🔥 What specifically drives TSLA into 550–650 📦 Deliveries + mix surprise If unit volumes beat whisper numbers and mix favors higher-trim/FSD attach, you get more gross profit per vehicle without needing price hikes. Watch the cadence of regional incentives and shipping vectors; strong NA/EU mix plus improving China utilization is the sweet spot. 🛠️ Margin stabilization → operating leverage Gross margin base effect + opex discipline = powerful flow-through. Even a 100–150 bps lift in auto GM, coupled with energy GM expanding as Megapack scales, can push operating margin into low-mid teens. That alone recodes the multiple market is willing to pay. 🔋 Energy storage stepping out of auto’s shadow Megapack/Powerwall growth with multi-GW backlogs turns “side business” into a credible second engine. As deployments and ASP/contract mix normalize, investors begin modeling $10–$15B annualized energy revenue with attractive GM — this is multiple-expanding because it looks more like infrastructure/software-tinted industrials than cyclical autos. 🤖 Autonomy & software monetization bridges Two things move the needle fast: (1) clear progress toward supervised autonomy at scale (drives FSD attach + ARPU), and (2) licensing (FSD stack, charging/NACS, drive units). Even modestly credible paid-miles/seat-based models (think $50–$150/month vehicles on fleet) transform valuation frameworks. 🦾 Optimus/robotics as a real option, not sci-fi The market doesn’t need commercial ubiquity — it needs line-of-sight to pilot deployments and unit economics where labor-substitute ROI < 3 years. A few high-credibility pilots (warehousing, simple assembly, logistics cells) can tack on optionality premium that pushes the multiple toward the top of the range. 💹 Options-market reflexivity Flows matter. Elevated call demand near ATH turns dealers short gamma, forcing delta hedging that lifts spot, which triggers more call buying → a familiar feedback loop. On breakouts, watch open interest skew to short-dated OTM calls, and put-call ratios compressing; these magnify upside in a tight float day. 🌍 Macro & liquidity If indices hold highs and the rate path doesn’t tighten financial conditions, growth duration gets rewarded. TSLA’s beta + story premium thrives in that regime. ________________________________________ 🧠 Outside-the-box accelerants 🛰️ “Software day” packaging A coordinated showcase that bundles FSD progress, energy software (fleet, VPP), service/insurance data, and Optimus pilots into a single capital-markets narrative could reframe TSLA as a platform. The Street responds to packaging; it compresses time-to-belief. 🤝 Third-party FSD/charging licensing headlines A single blue-chip OEM announcing software licensing + NACS deep integration reframes the competitive landscape. The equity market pays a software multiple for recurring seats. 🏗️ Capex signaling for next-gen platform without GM hit Announcing a modular, high-throughput manufacturing scheme (cell to structure, gigacasting tweaks, logistics compression) with proof that unit economics are accretive from ramp can flip skeptics who anchor to past ramp pain. ⚡ Grid-scale contracts + financing innovation If Tesla pairs utility-scale storage with project-level financing (think repeatable ABS-like channels for Megapack), you de-risk cash conversion cycles and unlock a new investor constituency (infrastructure/green income). That tightens the multiple. ________________________________________ 🏎️ Comparative playbook: RACE (Ferrari) & NVDA (NVIDIA) 👑 RACE — the scarcity & brand ROIC lens Ferrari’s premium multiple rests on scarcity, orderbook visibility, and brand pricing power. TSLA doesn’t have scarcity, but it can borrow the RACE lens via (a) limited-run, ultra-high-margin trims that anchor halo pricing, (b) waitlist-like energy backlogs that create visibility, and (c) bespoke software packages that mimic “personalization” margin. In bull phases, RACE trades as a luxury compounder rather than an automaker; TSLA can earn a slice of that premium when the energy + software story dominates. 🧮 NVDA — the flywheel & supply-constrained S-curve NVIDIA’s explosive run blended (1) clear demand > supply, (2) pricing power, (3) ecosystem lock-in. TSLA’s battery and compute stacks can echo that dynamic: limited 4680/cell supply + Megapack queues + proprietary autonomy data moat. The moment the market believes TSLA is supply-gated (not demand-gated) in energy/AI, it will award NVDA-like scarcity premia. Add toolchain stickiness (training data, fleet miles, Dojo/AI infra), and you get ecosystem multiples rather than auto multiples. 📊 What the comps teach for TSLA’s 550–650 zone • RACE lesson: visibility + pricing power boost the quality of earnings → higher P/E durability. • NVDA lesson: credible scarcity + platform control turbocharge EV/Sales and compress the market’s time-to-future state. • Translation for TSLA: blend of luxury-like quality (energy contracts + premium trims) and platform scarcity (cells/AI stack) → multiple rerate into our target band. ________________________________________ 🧾 Valuation outlook 🧮 Earnings path • Units up mid-teens % Y/Y; ASP stable to slightly higher on mix; energy + software up strongly. • Auto GM +100–150 bps; Energy GM expands on scale; opex +SMC disciplined → op margin 12–15%. • Share count glide modest. Forward EPS ≈ $9–$11. • Multiple: 50× (conservative growth premium) → $450–$550; 60× (software/autonomy visibility) → $540–$660. • Why the market pays up: visible recurring high-margin lines (FSD, energy software, services) + AI/robotics optionality. 📈 EV/Sales path • Forward revenue $130–$150B (auto + energy + software/services). • Assign blended EV/Sales 6.5–7.5× when energy/software dominate the debate. • Less net cash → equity value per share in $550–$650. • Check: At 7× on $140B = $980B EV; equity ≈ $1.0–$1.1T with cash, divided by diluted shares → mid-$500s to $600s. Momentum premium and flow can extend to upper bound. ________________________________________ 🧭 Technical roadmap & market-microstructure 🧱 Breakout mechanics A decisive weekly close above prior ATH with rising volume and a low-volume retest that holds converts resistance to a springboard. Expect a “open-drive → pause → trend” sequence: day 1 impulse, 2–5 sessions of rangebuilding, then trend resumption. 🧲 Volume shelves & AWVAPs Anchored VWAPs from the last major swing high and the post-washout low often act like magnets. Post-break, the ATH AVWAP becomes first support, then the $500 handle functions as the psychological pivot. Above there, $550/$590/$630 are classical measured-move/Fib projection waypoints; pullbacks should hold prior shelf highs. 🌀 Options & dealer positioning On a break, short-dated OTM calls populate 1–2% ladders; dealers short gamma chase price up via delta hedging. Expect intraday ramps near strikes (pin-and-pop behavior) and Friday accelerants if sentiment is euphoric. A steepening skew with heavy call open interest is your tell that supply is thin. ________________________________________ 🧨 Risks & invalidation 🚫 Failed retest below the breakout shelf (think: a fast round-trip under the $4-handle) downgrades the setup from “trend” to “blow-off.” 🧯 Margin or delivery disappointments (e.g., price-war resumption, regional softness) break the EPS/EV-Sales bridges. 🌪️ Macro shock (rates spike, liquidity drains) compresses long-duration multiples first; TSLA is high beta. 🔁 Flow reversal — if call-heavy positioning unwinds, gamma flips to a headwind and accelerates downside. ________________________________________ 💼 Trading & portfolio expressions for HNWI 🎯 Core + satellite Hold a core equity position to capture trend, add a satellite of calls for convexity. If chasing, consider call spreads (e.g., 1–3 month $500/$600 or $520/$650) to tame IV. 🛡️ Risk-managed parity Pair equity with a protective put slightly OTM or finance it with a put spread. Alternatively, collars (write covered calls above $650 to fund downside puts) if you’re guarding a large legacy stake. ⚙️ Momentum follow-through Use stop-ins above key levels for systematic adds, and stop-outs below retest lows to avoid round-trips. Size reduces into $590–$630 where target confluence lives; recycle risk into pullbacks. 💵 Liquidity & slippage Scale entries around liquid times (open/closing auctions). For size, work algos to avoid prints into obvious strikes where dealers can lean. ________________________________________ 🧾 Monitoring checklist 🔭 Delivery run-rate signals (regional registration proxies, shipping cadence). 🏭 Margin tells (bill of materials trends, promotions cadence, energy deployment updates). 🧠 Autonomy milestones (software releases, safety metrics, attach/ARPU hints). 🔌 Licensing/partnership beats (NACS depth, FSD/AI stack interest). 📊 Options dashboard (short-dated call OI ladders; put-call ratio shifts; gamma positioning). 🌡️ Macro regime (rates, liquidity, risk appetite). ________________________________________ ✅ Bottom line 🏁 The 550–650 tape is not a fairy tale — it’s a stacked-catalyst + rerate setup where energy/software/autonomy rise in the narrative mix, margins stabilize, and options-market reflexivity does the rest. Execute the breakout playbook, respect invalidation lines, and use convex expressions to lean into upside while protecting capital. esla (TSLA) — Breakout Playbook 🎯 Core Thesis • Insider conviction: Musk’s ~$1B buy. • Risk-on macro: equities at highs, liquidity supportive. • Options reflexivity: call-heavy flows can fuel upside. • ATH breakout (~$480–$490) = gateway to price discovery. ________________________________________ 🚀 Upside Drivers to $550–$650 • Deliveries & Mix: Surprise beat + higher trim/FSD attach. • Margins: GM stabilization + energy scaling → op margin 12–15%. • Energy: $10–15B rev potential with infra-like multiples. • Autonomy/Software: FSD attach, ARPU, licensing. • Optimus/Robotics: Pilot deployments → ROI < 3 yrs adds optionality. • Licensing Headlines: OEMs adopting NACS/FSD stack. • Capital Markets Narrative: Packaged “software + energy + robotics” story reframes Tesla as a platform. ________________________________________ 🏎️ Comparative Bull Run Lens • Ferrari (RACE): Scarcity, orderbook, luxury multiples. • NVIDIA (NVDA): Scarcity + ecosystem flywheel → EV/Sales premium. • Tesla Parallel: Blend of luxury quality (energy backlogs, halo trims) + AI scarcity (cells, fleet data, Dojo). ________________________________________ 📊 Valuation Bridges • EPS Path: $9–$11 EPS × 50–60× = $450–$660. • EV/Sales Path: $130–150B revenue × 6.5–7.5× = $550–$650. ________________________________________ 📈 Technical Roadmap • Breakout > $490 → retest holds → next legs: o $550 / $590 / $630 / stretch $650–$690. • Watch anchored VWAPs; ATH shelf flips to support. • Options chase accelerates above round strikes.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
56
$NVDA rolling over. $SMH looks vulnerableSemis have been the toughest pillar of this bull market. The Semis ETF NYSE:SM has been making new highs and new lows with occasional consolidation. NASDAQ:NVDA has been instrumental in the dominance of NASDAQ:SMH in most of the thematic ETFS. The ratio chart $NVDA/ NASDAQ:SMH is also showing signs of weakness and rolling over hard. Last time NASDAQ:NVDA lost momentum it fell 40%. Will the history repeat? History usually rhymes. So, when we see weakness in the largest stock in SP:SPX the indices will also roll over. The momentum weakness is visible in the RSI. If we believe that the previous highs act as support, then we can expect the stock to drop to 150 $. This aligns with the 1.0 Fib retracement level. This can mark a 17% downturn from here. The next support is around 120 $. That will mark a 33% pull back which is not unusual for $NVDA. But these price level will be great accumulation point for the stock. The consolidation in NASDAQ:SMH and NASDAQ:NVDA was predicated by me on Aug 3. But our long-term target remains intact with NASDAQ:NVDA @ 250 and NASDAQ:SMH @ 315. Verdict: NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:SMH looks vulnerable here. Price consolidation more likely providing good entry points in $NVDA. Long term target still holds.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by RabishankarBiswal