Crude Oil (USOIL) – Long SetupOil is currently trading around $63.20 and has formed a clean ascending structure, pushing into the breakout zone. Price is respecting the trendline well and is consolidating just below the EMA cluster – a breakout could be next.
We're currently in a narrow entry zone where bulls may gain control if we see a clean break above the local resistance range.
Trade Setup:
Entry: within the purple box (current zone)
Stop Loss: $62.60 just below the trendline – invalid if broken
Breakout Confirmation: clear candle close above $63.45
Targets:
T1: $63.70
T2: $64,60
Why Long?
Trendline support is holding – price has been bouncing cleanly off the rising line.
Momentum building – repeated tests of resistance without strong rejection.
EMA cluster as magnet – price may want to retest and potentially break through the EMA zone sitting above.
Summary:
Crude oil is coiling tightly just below resistance and trendline support is holding strong.
If we get a push above the breakout zone, I expect follow-through toward T1 = $63.70 and T2 = $64.60
Setup becomes invalid if the ascending trendline breaks clearly to the downside.
No financial advice – just how I see the chart.
Oil
OIL Trade Setup - September 12th📲 NFX TRADE ALERT – Swing Setup
💹 Instrument: Crude Oil GBEBROKERS:USOIL
🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Sell at Market
📍 Entry: $63.60
⛔ Stop Loss: $64.50
✅ Target Profit: $60.50
📊 Trade Setup Analysis – GBEBROKERS:USOIL
🔻 23.6% FIB rejection
🔻 200 SMA rejection
🔻 Rising wedge retest rejection
🔻 OPEC+ supply hike
That’s quadruple confirmation supporting a solid short position.
WTI Crude Oil – Falling Wedge Near Demand ZoneWTI is approaching a strong demand zone around $60–$61 while forming a falling wedge pattern.
A bullish breakout from this structure could trigger a move toward $68–70 in the coming weeks.
🔑 Key Levels:
Support: $60–61 (demand zone)
Resistance: $68–70 (target zone)
⚠️ This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Always manage risk accordingly.
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
Multi-Asset Execution Chart Analysis & TradesAnalysis Date : September 11, 2025
Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework
Methodology : Enhanced Dual Renko Chart System with Optimized Technical Indicators
Executive Summary
Execution chart analysis validates the exceptional institutional opportunities identified in our structure analysis. All three primary equity indices show perfect technical confirmation of institutional positioning with strong momentum indicators. Commodity and currency markets reveal significant technical conflicts requiring defensive positioning adjustments.
Enhanced Indicator Configuration
DMI/ADX Visual Standards :
ADX (Green) : Trend strength indicator (>25 = strong trend)
+DI (Blue) : Bullish directional movement
-DI (Red) : Bearish directional movement
Line Weight : 3pt for enhanced visibility
Dual Stochastics Configuration :
Tactical (5,3,3) : %K (Dark Blue), %D (Teal) - Short-term momentum
Strategic (50,3,3) : %K (Black), %D (Red Circles) - Medium-term context
Primary Opportunities - Technical Validation (75-85% Total Allocation)
1. DOW JONES (YM) - 30-35% ALLOCATION
Classification : OPTIMAL RISK/REWARD - Superior Technical Confirmation
YM Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bullish alignment confirmed (black above orange)
ADX : 47.74 (highest trend strength among all indices)
+DI/-DI Ratio : 2.69:1 bullish dominance
Momentum Quality : Exceptional - strongest ADX with optimal positioning
Stochastics : Tactical 98.86/84.24, Strategic 98.86/84.02 (peak momentum)
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (80% probability) :
Entry : /MYM at current levels 46,050 (optimal positioning confirmed)
Technical Edge : Strongest ADX + minimal extension risk
Stop Loss : 45,000 (2.3% risk - best among indices)
Target 1 : 47,000 (+2.1% - close 40% position)
Target 2 : 48,000 (+4.2% - close 30% position)
Trail Strategy : 150-point swing lows on remaining 30%
Consolidation Scenario (15% probability) :
Range : 45,500-46,500 around YTD POC consensus
Strategy : Accumulate on any dips to 45,700
Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support
Risk Management : Optimal positioning within institutional zone
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 45,000 (institutional consensus violation)
Action : Reduce position by 50%
Probability : Very low given YTD POC validation and technical strength
Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence
2. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : EXCEPTIONAL MOMENTUM - Exceptional Institutional Backing
NQ Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Strong bullish alignment (black above orange)
ADX : 44.91 (exceptional trend strength)
+DI/-DI Ratio : 2.90:1 bullish dominance (highest among indices)
Momentum Quality : Exceptional directional bias
Stochastics : Tactical 88.27/80.21, Strategic 88.27/80.21 (strong sustainable)
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (75% probability) :
Entry : /MNQ at current levels or pullback to 23,700-23,800
Technical Edge : Highest +DI/-DI ratio with institutional backing
Stop Loss : 23,000 (4.3% risk)
Target 1 : 25,000 (+4.3% - close 50% position)
Target 2 : 25,500 (+6.1% - close 25% position)
Trail Strategy : 100-point swing lows on remaining 25%
Consolidation Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 23,500-24,500 above institutional accumulation
Strategy : Scale into weakness, maintain core position
Management : Use tactical stochastics for entry timing
Support : 26.8:1 institutional backing provides confidence
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 23,000 (Q3 POC violation)
Action : Exit all positions immediately
Reassessment : Wait for institutional re-accumulation
Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional support
3. S&P 500 (ES) - 20-25% ALLOCATION
Classification : SOLID CONFIRMATION - Strong Institutional Support
ES Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bullish alignment maintained (black above orange)
ADX : 41.32 (strong trend strength)
+DI/-DI Ratio : 1.74:1 bullish dominance
Momentum Quality : Solid institutional validation
Stochastics : Tactical 34.44/93.30, Strategic 98.26/95.30 (extreme overbought)
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (70% probability) :
Entry : /MES on any pullback to 6,450-6,500
Current Caution : Strategic stochastics extremely overbought
Stop Loss : 6,300 (3.8% risk)
Target 1 : 6,700 (+2.8% - close 50% position)
Target 2 : 6,800 (+4.4% - close 25% position)
Profit Management : Take profits on strength given overbought conditions
Consolidation Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 6,400-6,600 around institutional levels
Strategy : Wait for tactical stochastics to reset before adding
Management : Reduce position size until momentum cools
Context : Strategic overbought suggests pause needed
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support failure)
Action : Systematic position reduction
Management : Tight stops given overbought technical readings
Re-entry : Wait for technical reset and institutional validation
Secondary Opportunities - Mixed Technical Signals (10-15% Total Allocation)
4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 8-12% ALLOCATION
Classification : INSTITUTIONAL CONFLICT - Defensive Positioning Required
CL Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bullish alignment (black above orange)
ADX : 42.19 (strong trend strength)
+DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 2.44:1 (-DI 42.10 vs +DI 17.86)
Critical Conflict : DEMA bullish vs DMI strongly bearish
Stochastics : Tactical 9.26/27.64, Strategic 27.64/33.61 (oversold setup)
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (45% probability) :
Entry Criteria : WAIT for +DI to cross above -DI for confirmation
Current Action : Reduce position size due to momentum conflict
Stop Loss : 61.50 (tight due to bearish momentum)
Target : 65.50 if technical alignment achieved
Risk Management : Maximum 1.5% account risk due to signal conflict
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 62.00-64.00 within institutional accumulation
Strategy : Maintain minimal defensive position
Monitoring : Daily +DI/-DI relationship for momentum shift
Institutional Support : Strong Q2 accumulation provides floor
Bearish Scenario (20% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure)
Action : Complete position liquidation
Reason : Bearish momentum confirming institutional breakdown
Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support) with technical confirmation
High-Risk Positions - Technical Deterioration (0-8% Total Allocation)
5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 3-5% ALLOCATION
Classification : HIGH RISK - Institutional Disengagement Confirmed
NG Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bearish alignment (black below orange)
ADX : 42.79 (strong trend - bearish direction)
+DI/-DI Ratio : EXTREME BEARISH 6.30:1 (-DI 53.25 vs +DI 8.45)
Technical Reality : All major indicators bearishly aligned
Stochastics : Tactical 0.00/6.70 (maximum oversold), Strategic 51.98/65.70
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (20% probability) :
Entry Criteria : AVOID - all technical signals bearish
Required Confirmation : DEMA bullish cross + DMI reversal + institutional re-engagement
Current Action : Complete avoidance recommended
Speculative Only : Maximum 1% account risk if attempting reversal play
Neutral Scenario (30% probability) :
Range : 2.80-3.20 with declining institutional participation
Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for institutional return
Risk : 65% volume decline from Q1 peak activity
Liquidity : /MNG insufficient volume (13,991) for meaningful sizing
Bearish Scenario (50% probability) :
Continuation : Further decline toward 2.50-2.70 historical lows
Institutional Reality : Smart money disengagement pattern
Technical Confirmation : 6.30:1 bearish momentum supports decline
Strategy : Complete avoidance until institutional re-engagement
6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 2-3% ALLOCATION
Classification : DANGEROUS EXTENSION - Technical Breakdown Confirmed
6E Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bearish crossover (black below orange)
ADX : 29.21 (moderate trend strength)
+DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.19:1 (-DI 29.21 vs +DI 24.49)
Extension Risk : 12.1% above YTD POC institutional consensus
Stochastics : Tactical 23.24/66.57, Strategic 74.26/90.89 (extremely overbought)
Technical Trade Setup :
Bullish Scenario (15% probability) :
Entry : AVOID - dangerous extension with technical breakdown
Existing Positions : Immediate systematic profit-taking required
Risk : Overextension + bearish technical = correction imminent
Management : Emergency profit-taking protocols engaged
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels
Strategy : Avoid range trading given extension risk
Risk Assessment : All signals point to mean reversion
Professional Response : Defensive positioning only
Bearish Scenario (60% probability) :
Target : Return to YTD POC 1.0525 (-12.1% correction)
Technical Trigger : DEMA bearish cross + momentum deterioration
Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength above 1.1780
Entry : /M6E shorts with tight stops above 1.1820
Risk Control : Maximum 1% account risk given extension
7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 0% ALLOCATION
Classification : LIQUIDATION - High Risk Territory
GC Execution View:
Execution Signal Analysis :
DEMA Status : Bearish crossover from distribution highs
ADX : 34.91 (declining trend strength)
+DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.31:1 (-DI 34.91 vs +DI 26.64)
Extension Risk : 12.2%+ beyond ALL institutional positioning
Stochastics : Tactical 11.25/30.89, Strategic 89.46/93.86 (maximum overbought)
Technical Trade Setup :
Emergency Liquidation Protocol :
Immediate Action : Complete liquidation using market orders if necessary
Rationale : Void territory + technical breakdown = catastrophic risk
No Stops : Emergency exit protocols - immediate execution required
Reallocation : Proceeds to YM, NQ, ES primary opportunities immediately
Short Opportunity (High Probability) :
Strategy : /MGC shorts on any rallies above 2,690
Target : 2,380-2,400 (return to institutional zones)
Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control)
Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline expected
Risk : Maximum 1% account risk for speculative short
Portfolio Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Framework
Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% account value (1.5% for conflicted signals)
Portfolio Heat Limit : 15% total risk across all positions
Correlation Controls : Maximum 85% equity exposure given technical alignment
Cash Management : 5-10% opportunity fund for technical setups
Technical Signal Hierarchy
Primary Confirmation : DEMA + DMI + ADX alignment required
Entry Timing : Stochastics for tactical positioning optimization
Risk Management : Institutional levels for strategic stop placement
Profit Taking : Systematic protocol at 2:1, 3:1, trail remainder
Market Scenario Analysis
Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (70% probability)
Characteristics : Technical momentum sustains institutional accumulation
Winners : YM, NQ, ES (maximize allocation to 85%)
Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections accelerate)
Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, complete defensive liquidation
Technical Catalyst : ADX strength maintenance + DEMA alignment
Scenario B: Technical Consolidation (25% probability)
Characteristics : Momentum indicators cool, range-bound trading
Management : Reduce position sizes, use stochastics for timing
Opportunity : Accumulate on pullbacks to institutional levels
Risk Control : Tighter stops, faster profit-taking on strength
Technical Signal : ADX decline below 35, stochastics reset
Scenario C: Technical Breakdown (5% probability)
Trigger : DEMA bearish crosses on primary indices
Action : Emergency position reduction protocols
Management : Systematic liquidation, increase cash to 25%+
Re-entry : Wait for institutional level retests with technical confirmation
Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional backing
Weekly Monitoring Checklist
Daily Technical Assessment
DEMA relationship maintenance across all positions
DMI momentum quality and directional bias confirmation
Stochastics positioning for entry/exit timing optimization
ADX strength validation for trend continuation
Risk Management Verification
Position sizing within 2% account risk per trade
Portfolio heat below 15% total risk exposure
Stop loss proximity to institutional support levels
Profit-taking discipline at predetermined targets
Technical Signal Evolution
Cross-asset momentum convergence/divergence analysis
Stochastics reset opportunities for position optimization
DEMA separation quality for trend strength assessment
Institutional level respect vs violation monitoring
Key Success Factors
Technical Execution Excellence
Signal Clarity : Enhanced visual indicators enable precise timing
Risk Discipline : Systematic adherence to technical signal hierarchy
Momentum Quality : ADX + DMI confirmation prevents false signals
Entry Optimization : Dual stochastics for tactical timing precision
Institutional Integration
Strategic Context : Structure charts provide positioning intelligence
Tactical Timing : Execution charts optimize entry/exit precision
Risk Management : Institutional levels anchor stop placement
Professional Standards : Both frameworks align for optimal decisions
Framework Validation Results
Primary Opportunities : Perfect technical confirmation of institutional intelligence
Risk Identification : Technical signals validate structure chart warnings
Professional Execution : Enhanced indicators enable institutional-grade precision
Capital Preservation : Systematic risk management across all timeframes
Risk Disclaimer : All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Technical analysis and institutional intelligence frameworks are tools for risk assessment and should not be considered guaranteed predictors of future price movement. Position sizing and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions.
Document Status : Active execution framework requiring daily technical monitoring and weekly risk assessment updates. Integration with structure analysis mandatory for optimal decision-making.
Framework Evolution : Enhanced visual indicators and systematic technical analysis represent significant advancement in execution precision. Continuous optimization based on market regime changes and signal quality assessment required.
Manage Crude Oil Risk with Weekly Energy OptionsOn Sunday Opec+ agrees further oil output boost by 137K barrels per day, but less than Sep / Aug output, when market open it went higher.
How to manage short-term risk, in this case opportunity with CME Group weekly energy options on such a scheduled announcement?
Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: CL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025
Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis
Executive Summary
Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence.
Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation)
1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN)
Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186)
Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation
Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (65% probability) :
Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400
Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range
Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit all positions immediately
Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence
Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation
2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN)
Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375)
Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (70% probability) :
Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation
Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength
Management : Maintain core position size
Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation)
Action : Systematic position reduction
Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level)
Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals
3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION
Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN)
YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150
Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus)
Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (75% probability) :
Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed)
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position)
Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position)
Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%)
Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus
Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200
Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained
Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation)
Action : Reduce position by 50%
Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit)
Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation
Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation)
4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION
Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN)
Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone)
Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (60% probability) :
Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00
Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position
Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (30% probability) :
Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness
Management : Patient accumulation approach
Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit positions systematically
Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support)
Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity
Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation)
5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION
Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation
Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high
Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks
Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (45% probability) :
Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls
Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position)
Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%)
Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support)
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation
Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement
Management : Maintain defensive positioning
Watch : Volume quality for institutional return
Bearish Scenario (20% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure)
Action : Complete position liquidation
Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration
Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence
Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation)
6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION
Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC)
Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus)
Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning
Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (25% probability) :
Entry : AVOID new long positions
Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended
Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions)
Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels
Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops
Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk
Management : Defensive positioning required
Bearish Scenario (40% probability) :
Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700
Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525)
Action : Short opportunities on strength
Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely
7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION
Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning
Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels
Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended)
Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (15% probability) :
Entry : AVOID all new long positions
Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended
Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable
Management : Defensive exit strategy only
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels
Strategy : No positioning recommended
Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension
Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals
Bearish Scenario (60% probability) :
Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones)
Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely
Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength
Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690
Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control)
Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone)
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Framework
Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value
Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies)
Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions
Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts
Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels
Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels
Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days
Profit Taking Protocol
Systematic Approach :
Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward
Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward
Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops
Correlation Management
Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM)
Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG)
Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only)
Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only)
Market Scenario Planning
Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience
Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation)
Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections)
Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance
Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability)
Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels
Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support)
Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges)
Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading
Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality
Winners : Cash, defensive positioning
Losers : All risk assets
Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction
Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels
Weekly Monitoring Checklist
Daily Assessment
Institutional POC level respect across all markets
Volume quality and institutional engagement trends
Position sizing within risk parameters
Stop loss proximity to institutional levels
Weekly Review
Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages
Risk/reward ratios for all open positions
Institutional volume profile evolution
Correlation analysis across positions
Performance tracking vs. benchmarks
Monthly Evaluation
Quarterly volume profile updates
YTD POC alignment reassessment
Strategy performance attribution
Risk management protocol effectiveness
Market regime change identification
Key Success Factors
Institutional Intelligence Priority
Decision Hierarchy :
Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic)
YTD POC alignment validation (tactical)
Technical indicator confirmation (execution)
Risk management protocols (defensive)
Discipline Requirements
Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas
Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes
Institutional level respect over short-term price action
Professional risk management with systematic protocols
Performance Expectations
Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage)
Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades
Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital
Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time
Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bearish Pressure
WTI Crude Oil is under a strong bearish pressure after
US CPI release today.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a flag pattern
in a clear intraday downtrend on a 4H time frame leaves
a strong confirmation.
I think that the price will reach 62.0 level soon.
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OIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Update – USOIL FX:USOIL
Price pushed above $64, tagging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which I believe should hold. This move looks like a liquidity grab, hunting short stop-losses (our last setup included 😅). Classic SMC in play.
Now we have clearer insight: the key question is whether price respects the 23.6% Fib or extends higher. Based on strong fundamentals (recent inventory build signaling oversupply), I doubt sustained higher prices. The bearish case still holds weight.
🎥 Full breakdown and details in the video.
Oil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concernsOil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concerns
Oil prices dipped late Thursday as U.S. crude stocks rose 3.9M barrels, defying forecasts for a decline, while the IEA lifted supply estimates, signaling a larger surplus ahead. Losses were capped by rising geopolitical risks, with the U.S. and EU weighing tougher sanctions on Russia after fresh Ukraine-related tensions. Traders now balance bearish fundamentals with potential supply disruptions.
US CPI Number? Lets see What Crude Is Telling us... Today is the US CPI one of the most important events before the Fed’s next move
I’ve often used the relationship between US CPI and Crude oil, and it has been a reliable guide many times before.
Key points
👉Crude was down -8.5% in August → we may see a suprise with lower CPI
👉 Official expectations are for higher CPI: from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y → risk of a miss
👉Even if CPI hits 2.9%, dollar may not rally far → because its expected number
👉Dollar bottomed in Sep 2024 after Fed made 1st cut in while→ weak USD risk remains till FED cuts, then reversal
Oil at the crossroads - buy zone or bear trap?Technically , WTI is testing the lower boundary of a converging wedge, hovering around the identified buy zone. Holding above 62–63 is critical for bulls, as a breakdown would expose targets at 61.30 and 58.80. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could trigger a move toward 70.50 and even 77.60 if momentum builds. The daily stochastic hints at a potential reversal to the upside, suggesting that a short-term bounce may be in play.
Fundamentally , the outlook remains tense: weak demand from China and global economic uncertainty are weighing on prices, while OPEC+ continues to maintain control over supply. U.S. inventory swings, with alternating builds and exports, add to volatility. Overall, the setup looks neutral with elevated risk - macro data could easily tip the balance either way.
Tactically , the market is facing a binary scenario: sustained strength above 63 opens the way to 70.50 and 77.60, while failure here brings 58.80–55.60 into focus.
In short, oil is at a crossroads and the next decisive move depends on whether bulls can hold the line.
USOIL Trade Insights📢 NFX Trade Update – FX:USOIL USOIL (WTI-USD)
Strong rejection at the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance, with price dropping exactly as expected, confirming the liquidity grab setup. A textbook SMC play.
We anticipate further downside on Oil. Our trade is active, and for those who entered around $64.10 (per the last video analysis), you’re already sitting on +350 pips in profit.
Looking ahead, I expect price to drop below the EIA entry level and potentially test the $62/barrel zone before Friday’s market close.
WTI OIL Recent fractal calls for a buy towards $70.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle following a Double Bottom bounce on the 61.50 Support. At the same time the 1D RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
The same set of conditions emerged on the May 05 bottom rebound, which resulted into initially a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and then a Resistance 2 contact.
As a result, we expect this rise to continue, targeting $70.50.
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USOIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup
💹 Instrument: FX:USOIL Crude Oil (WTI-USD)
🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Sell at Market
📍 Entry: $63.50
⛔ Stop Loss: $64.00
✅ Target Profit: $60.50
Analysis:
Crude Oil turned bearish after failing to hold above the $64.00 resistance. The latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories report (Sep 10, 2025) showed a +3.939M build versus a forecasted -1.900M draw and a previous +2.415M, signaling weaker demand and oversupply pressures.
This aligns with the current technical setup: lower highs forming and supply pressure weighing on price action. A rejection around $63.50 opens room for continuation to the $60.50 support zone. Risk remains tight with a stop above $64.00, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward profile.
Oil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gainOil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gains
WTI crude traded around $63 August 10, marking a third day of gains as Middle East tensions escalated after Israel struck Hamas leadership in Qatar. The move adds to years of regional operations and heightens supply concerns, supported by OPEC+’s smaller October output hike.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to pressure Russia, with Washington ready to match. U.S. crude inventories rose 1.25M barrels, tempering the rally. Global stocks gained and the dollar steadied ahead of key U.S. inflation data, while gold held near record highs.
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Struggles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $62.25.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil price failed to clear the $65.60 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $62.25 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to clear $65.60 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $64.60.
The bears gained strength and pushed the price below $62.00. Finally, the price tested $61.20 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above $62.00, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $65.63 swing high to the $61.23 low.
The bears are now active near $63.00. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face a barrier near $63.05. The first major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at $63.40. The next stop for the bulls could be near $64.60. Any more gains might send the price toward $65.60.
Conversely, the price might start another decline and test a short-term bullish trend line with support at $62.25 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $61.20. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $60.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $60.00.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.28
Target Level: 61.46
Stop Loss: 64.49
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
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WTI ShortThe alliance, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed to a phased increase in production, which led to an increase in supply on the market.
OPEC+ production increase parameters
April 2025: Increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day
May-July 2025: Monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day
August 2025: Increase by 548,000 barrels per day
September 2025: Increase by 547,000 barrels per day
October 2025: Planned increase by 137,000 barrels per day
OPEC+ plans to fully restore production cuts in 2023. Initially, a gradual increase in production was planned until September 2026, but due to favorable market conditions, the process was accelerated
US trade policy, which introduced customs duties on goods from many countries, also affects the price of oil
We expect a decline in the American grade of oil to $ 60
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again.
This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat.
The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact).
Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025
Current Price : $62.25
Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis
Executive Summary
WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup.
Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis
Institutional Positioning Intelligence
The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions:
Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50
Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation
Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range
Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone
Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period
Secondary Support Levels:
$60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support
$58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest
Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone
Resistance Structure Analysis:
$65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume
$68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution
$70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak
Price Structure Context
Historical Pattern Recognition:
The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal.
Critical Structure Points:
Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning
Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity
Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation
Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing
Execution Chart Technical Analysis
Current Technical Configuration
DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL:
Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25
Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50
Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange)
Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support
DMI/ADX Assessment:
ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement
+DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI
Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias
Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction
Stochastic Analysis:
Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal
Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum
Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Technical Levels:
Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line)
Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC)
Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary)
Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low)
Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach)
Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone)
Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
Required Conditions for Long Entry:
DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line
DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI
ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30
Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor
Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence
Entry Protocol:
Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover
Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement
Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals
Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation)
Profit Targets:
Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits
Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits
Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25%
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup
Short Entry Conditions:
DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line
Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor
DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI
ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias
Short Setup Parameters:
Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown
Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown)
Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones)
Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
Sideways Trading Framework:
Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone)
Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary)
Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary)
Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract)
Profit Target: Opposite range boundary
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Guidelines
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict)
Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.015 ÷ (Stop Distance × $10)
Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support)
Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach)
Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation)
Time-Based Risk Controls
Monitoring Requirements:
Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect
4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength
Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns
Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution
Market Context and External Factors
Fundamental Considerations
Supply/Demand Dynamics:
OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies
China demand recovery prospects
Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October)
Geopolitical Factors:
Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums
US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns
Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows
Seasonal Patterns
September-October Considerations:
End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand
Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions
Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive
Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness
Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels
Daily Monitoring Requirements
DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship
Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor
Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns
External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements
Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets
Critical Alert Levels
Bullish Alerts:
DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50
Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor
+DI reclaiming dominance over -DI
Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation
Bearish Alerts:
Break below $62.00 institutional floor
DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange)
Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50
ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning.
Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment.
Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect
Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention
Important Disclaimer
Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor.
Key Risk Considerations:
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis
Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly
Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly
Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework.
The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.