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WTI - Moscow's Discounts Keep Russian Oil Flowing to IndiaIndian refineries are still incentivized to buy Russian Urals oil, says Commerzbank Research's Carsten Fritsch. President Trump inflicted stiff tariffs on New Delhi--including a 25% levy for its purchases of Russian oil--but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears unwilling to bow to U.S. pressure. Meanwhile, the Kremlin cut the price of its oil in order to keep Indian customers. "This oil is being offered at a discount of $3-$4 per barrel compared to Brent for cargoes loaded at the end of September and in October," Fritsch says, citing unnamed sources. "By comparison, Indian refineries recently had to pay a premium of $3 over Brent for U.S. oil."
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
WTI Surges Above 65$ ResistanceCrude oil is currently supported by a combination of energy sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations — with price action eyeing the $70 barrier as long as it holds above $65.20. WTI maintained its rebound above the 61.80–62.00 support zone — aligning with the neckline of the previous inverted head and shoulders formation — and has broken above the 65 resistance level, signaling a potential continuation of bullish momentum. Daily RSI has also moved above the neutral 50 level, further confirming upside momentum. • A clean hold above 65.20 may extend the rally toward 68.00, 69.40, and 70.40 — the next major resistance levels. • On the downside, 62.00 and 61.80 remain key support levels. A break below them could expose oil to deeper losses toward 59.40 and 57.90.
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
USOil Bear Trap Set: Ready For The Downside Raid?🛢️ WTI Oil Bearish Heist Plan 💣 | Thief Trader Layers Activated 🔐 💥 Welcome to the vault raid, Thief OG’s! 💥 We’re targeting US Oil Spot / WTI (XTIUSD) — and this time, the plan is pure Bearish robbery. 🚨 The Robbery Setup: This isn’t just a sell — it’s a layered ambush. We place traps, let bulls walk in, and then we rob clean. 📌 Thief Entry Plan (Limit Layers): Sell Limit @63.000 Sell Limit @63.500 Sell Limit @64.000 Sell Limit @64.500 👉 You can stack more layers if the vault door keeps opening. 🛑 Thief Stop Loss: SL locked @65.500 🔒 ⚠️ Adjust your SL like a true Thief — according to your risk + number of layers. 🎯 Escape Plan (Target): 🚔 Police barricade spotted around 59.000. 📌 Official Heist Exit: 60.000 — grab the loot before the cops arrive. 🧠 Thief Strategy Logic: Multi-layer sell ambush 🏴‍☠️ Bearish pressure from supply + demand shifts 📊 Technical rejection zones aligning with macro weakness 📉 ⚠️ Risk Management Note: Thieves don’t rush! 👉 Place alerts before the raid. 👉 Don’t dump blind orders — wait for price to approach layers. 👉 Manage your position like a stealth operation, not a casino gamble. 💬 Thief Community Code: Smash ❤️ & Boost if you’re with the robbery crew. Drop your charts + sniper entries below. We rob together. We win together. 🏆 🔔 Stay locked in — more heist plans dropping soon. 💰 Rob Smart. Trade Sharp. Exit Clean.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by The-Thief
USOIL (WTI Crude) – Buy & Sell Trade Scenarios🔵 Bullish Scenario (Buy Call) Entry Zone: Break and sustained close above 65.20 – 65.50 (current 4H resistance). Reasoning: Price has retested the 64.90 resistance cluster multiple times, suggesting absorption of supply. Volume shows declining sell pressure near resistance – a sign of potential breakout. A breakout with strong volume confirms buyers stepping in. Target 1: 66.75 (measured move into next liquidity pool). Target 2 (extended): 68.20 – 68.50 (previous structural pivot). Stop Loss: Below 64.20 (false breakout protection). R:R Potential: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Sell Call) Entry Zone: Rejection at 65.00 – 65.50 resistance with bearish confirmation candle. Reasoning: This zone has acted as a strong supply area since mid-August. Multiple wicks rejecting the level + increasing sell volume hint at distribution. If price fails to close above resistance, sellers regain control. Target 1: 63.00 – 63.20 (mid-support range). Target 2 (extended): 62.00 – 61.90 (major support zone). Stop Loss: Above 65.70 (wick protection). R:R Potential: ~1:2 to 1:3 ⚖️ Key Technical Takeaway 64.90 – 65.50 = Pivot zone (battle between bulls and bears). Breakout + volume = bullish continuation to 66.75+. Rejection + heavy volume = bearish rotation back to 62.95.
TVC:USOIL
by coolbouy
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 64.627. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 63.428. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
SpotCrude Short Setup - 4h💎MJTrading 📸 Viewing Tip: 🛠️ Some layout elements may shift depending on your screen size. 🔗 View the fixed high-resolution chart here: 🛢️ PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE Short Setup – Third Tap of Falling Wedge Resistance Pattern: Falling wedge Context: Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs Bias: Bearish 🟢 Entry Point: 64.5 This aligns with upper boundary of the Falling Wedge (After Rejection). ❌ Stop Loss (SL): 65.5 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Levels ✅ TP1 (RR1) → 63.5 📈 TP2 → 62.5 💰 TP3 → 61.5 🧠 Trade Logic Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs ⚠️ Risk Management Risk:Reward ratio ranges from 1:1 to 1:3, depending on TP level. Psychology Always Matters:
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by MJElahifx
1
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: 02-September-2025Week Ahead Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Analysis Period : August 26-30, 2025 Review | September 2-6, 2025 Outlook Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min) Current Price : $64.00 (August 30, 2025) ________________________________________ Strategic Outlook & Market Setup Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Pullback First, Then Recovery What to Expect : Market opens lower Tuesday ($63.00-63.50 range) due to bearish signal on short-term chart. This creates a buying opportunity if support holds. Trading Plan: Tuesday Opening : Expect gap down - don't panic, this was anticipated Buy Zone : Look for entries between $62.00-63.50 (strong institutional support) Confirmation Needed : Wait for short-term trend to flip bullish again before buying Target : Still aiming for $66.50 but may take extra 3-5 days to get there Secondary Scenario (25% Probability): Sideways Consolidation What to Expect : Market trades in $63.50-64.50 range for several days while technical signals realign. Trading Plan: Strategy: Be patient - don't force trades in choppy conditions Wait For: Clear breakout above $64.50 with volume Risk: Could waste 1-2 weeks in sideways action Low Probability Scenario (5% Probability): Immediate Continuation Up What to Expect : Market gaps up above $64.25 and keeps rising. Trading Plan: Verify: Make sure both short-term and long-term signals turn bullish Caution: Be skeptical without strong volume confirmation Action: Can buy but use smaller position sizes until confirmed ________________________________________ Market Risk Factors & Monitoring Critical Support Level : $62.00 Why Important: Massive institutional buying occurred here - if it breaks, the bullish case is dead Action If Broken: Exit all long positions immediately, wait for new setup Probability of Break: Low (15%) but must be respected Key Events This Week : Tuesday: ISM Services data (economic health indicator) Wednesday: Weekly oil inventory report (could cause volatility) Friday: Jobs report (affects overall market sentiment) Warning Signs to Watch: Technical: Short-term trend staying bearish for more than 3 days Volume: Declining volume on any bounce attempts Support: Any trading below $62.50 for extended periods Time: No progress toward $66.50 target within 10 total trading days Positive Signs to Look For : Technical: Short-term trend flipping back to bullish (key confirmation) Volume: Above-average volume on any recovery moves Support: Strong buying interest at $62-63 zone Momentum: Clean breakout above $64.50 with follow-through ________________________________________ Forward-Looking Adjustments Modified Risk Management : Position Size: Use 50% of normal position size until both timeframes align bullish Stop Loss: Tighter stops at $62.75 (just below support zone) Entry Patience: Don't chase - wait for pullback to support levels Profit Taking: Be more aggressive taking profits at first target ($66.50) Revised Entry Strategy: Before Buying, Confirm ALL Three: Price: Trading at or near $62-63 support zone Technical: Short-term trend signal flips back to bullish Volume: Above-average buying interest visible Timeline Expectations : Days 1-3: Expect pullback/consolidation phase Days 4-5: Look for bullish confirmation signals Days 6-10: Resume advance toward $66.50 target if signals align Beyond Day 10: If no progress, reassess entire strategy Success Metrics: Minimum Goal: Protect capital during pullback phase Primary Target: $66.50 within 2 weeks (revised from 1 week) Risk Limit: Maximum 2% account loss if support fails Time Limit: Exit strategy if no directional progress within 10 days total Simplified Decision Framework : Green Light to Buy: Price near $62-63 + Short-term trend bullish + Good volume Yellow Light (Wait): Mixed signals, choppy price action, low volume Red Light (Exit): Price below $62, bearish trend continuing, time limit exceeded ________________________________________ Bottom Line : The bigger picture remains bullish, but short-term signals suggest a pullback first. Use any weakness to $62-63 as a buying opportunity, but only with proper confirmation. Be patient - the setup is still valid but timing may be delayed by a few days. ________________________________________ Document Classification : Trading Analysis Next Update : September 6, 2025 (Weekly Review) Risk Level : Moderate (controlled institutional setup) This analysis represents continued validation of a systematic, institutional-grade trading methodology with demonstrated predictive accuracy and risk control capabilities. This is a view that represents possible scenarios but ultimate responsibility is with each individual trader. Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mxb1961
USOIL Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 64.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 64.22 My Stop Loss - 63.89 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast Current Price: $64.612 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: USOIL / WTI Crude Oil Cash Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) continues to navigate a complex fundamental landscape, currently trading at $64.612 per barrel amid significant bearish pressure. Recent market data shows crude oil fell to $64.04 on August 29, 2025, declining 0.87% from the previous session with a concerning 8.51% monthly drop and 12.93% year-over-year decline. Technical analysis reveals the commodity has broken below critical support levels around $65.00-66.00, with strong resistance encountered at the descending trend line near $65.27. Our comprehensive analysis indicates potential for further downside toward $58-60 zone, though geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production dynamics could trigger sharp reversals. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis WTI Crude Oil exhibits a complex corrective structure within a multi-year consolidation pattern: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of larger degree ABC correction from 2022 highs Wave Structure: Currently in final stages of 5-wave decline toward $58-62 target Corrective Phase: Large degree consolidation between $60-85 range since 2022 Long-term Projection: Eventual breakout above $85 targets $110-120 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $55 would extend corrective phase significantly Fibonacci Relationships: Current decline showing 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Oil demonstrates classic Wyckoff Distribution Phase completion with transition to Markdown: Phase: Early Markdown Phase following Distribution completion Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on declines indicating institutional selling Price Action: Breaking support levels with follow-through selling Composite Operator Activity: Smart money liquidating positions accumulated above $70 Market Character: Weak rallies met with fresh selling pressure Re-accumulation Zone: $58-62 represents potential future accumulation area W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $64.612 positioned near 90-degree Gann support turning point - Next major Gann level: $58.50 (180-degree decline from recent high) - Time and price convergence: September 21-28, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Critical Gann squares: $62.41, $58.50, $54.76 (geometric decline sequence) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Declining Angle Resistance: $67-68 (primary downtrend line) - 2x1 Accelerated Decline: $60-62 (next support cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $55-58 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $48-52 (crisis scenario support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 84-day cycle low expected: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October typically sees oil volatility - Major time window: October 5-15, 2025 (potential reversal period) - Annual cycle: Q4 seasonal strength often supports energy complex Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics: - Immediate support: $62-64 - Primary target: $58-60 - Extended decline: $54-56 - Time harmony suggests potential reversal after October 8, 2025 Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $62-68 (breakdown phase) - Next trading range: $55-65 (potential base formation) - Long-term channel: $45-85 (multi-year consolidation) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Bearish Engulfing: August 26-27 confirming breakdown below $65 support Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $65.50-66.00 resistance levels Spinning Tops: Indecision candles around $64-65 zone Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on red candles, declining on green Dark Cloud Cover: August 28-29 pattern confirming selling pressure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Bearish Gartley Completion: $68-70 zone (recent distribution area) ABCD Extension: Active decline targeting $58-60 completion zone Bearish Butterfly: Potential completion at $54-56 extreme target Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple extension levels converging at $58.50 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Down: Developing pattern toward $58-60 target zone Bearish Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting $52-55 targets AB=CD Equality: Price and time relationships supporting $58 target Cypher Pattern: Potential bullish reversal consideration at $58-60 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure: Bear Trap Probability: 25% - Potential false breakdown below $62 support Bull Trap Scenario: 75% - Any rally above $67 likely to be sold aggressively Key Levels: Sustained break below $60 confirms bearish continuation Volume Pattern: High volume selling indicates genuine breakdown rather than trap --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Below Kumo cloud indicating bearish trend dominance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $65.24 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $67.18 (medium-term resistance level) Senkou Span A: $66.21 (leading span A - resistance) Senkou Span B: $69.45 (leading span B - major cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Below historical price action confirming bearish sentiment Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thickening cloud structure indicating strong resistance above - Future resistance zone: $65-70 (forward-looking cloud base) - Cloud twist not anticipated until late Q4 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (active bearish signal) Price vs Cloud: Below cloud with downward momentum Chikou Span: Clear below price history (bearish confirmation) Cloud Breakout: Failed to maintain position above cloud support --- Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 38.6 (oversold territory but not extreme) Weekly RSI: 42.3 (bearish momentum with room for decline) 4H RSI: 35.2 (approaching oversold with potential bounce) RSI Divergence: No bullish divergence detected, momentum remains bearish RSI Support: 30 level crucial for preventing deeper decline Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price near lower band ($62.50 level) Band Width: Expanding indicating increasing volatility %B Indicator: 0.18 (near lower extreme, potential bounce zone) Band Squeeze: Recent expansion from squeeze formation VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $65.47 (dynamic resistance level) Weekly VWAP: $67.23 (key resistance zone) Monthly VWAP: $69.18 (major resistance level) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $66-68 zone now resistance Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $65.89 (immediate dynamic resistance) 20 EMA: $67.12 (short-term resistance) 50 SMA: $69.45 (intermediate resistance) 100 SMA: $71.23 (key resistance level) 200 SMA: $73.87 (major secular resistance) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bearish alignment across all timeframes - Death Cross pattern established (50/200 SMA) - Price trading below all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $66.50-67.00 (immediate technical resistance and daily VWAP) 2. R2: $68.00-68.50 (previous support turned resistance) 3. R3: $70.00-70.50 (psychological and technical confluence) 4. R4: $72.00-73.00 (major moving average cluster) 5. R5: $75.00-76.00 (long-term resistance zone) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $62.50-63.00 (immediate Gann support and lower Bollinger Band) 2. S2: $60.00-61.00 (psychological and harmonic support) 3. S3: $58.00-59.00 (major Gann target and Elliott Wave projection) 4. S4: $55.00-56.00 (extended harmonic target) 5. S5: $52.00-54.00 (crisis scenario and long-term support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $66-68 (now major resistance zone) Low Volume Gap: $60-62 (potential rapid movement area) Volume Support: $58-60 (potential accumulation zone) POC (Point of Control): $67.25 (maximum volume acceptance, now resistance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Short rallies to 20 EMA with RSI >65 in downtrend Profit Targets: $0.30-0.50 per barrel per scalping trade Stop Loss: $0.20-0.30 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required on breakdown continuation Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-4:00 AM, London open 3:00-6:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $63.50-65.50 Breakdown Strategy: Volume confirmation below $63.50 for continuation Counter-trend: Fade rallies above $65.50 without volume Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Short below EMA cluster ($65.50-66.00) Pattern Trading: Bear flag and pennant formations Target Methodology: Initial $62.50, extended $60-61 Risk Parameters: $0.80-1.20 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bearish crossovers with histogram expansion Resistance Shorting: Short entries from $66-67.50 zone Support Testing: Monitor $62-63 area for breakdown continuation Session Management: Focus on US trading hours 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Short on failed attempts to reclaim Ichimoku cloud Elliott Wave: Ride Wave C completion toward major targets Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for short entries Hold Duration: 5-15 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakdown Strategy: Short on sustained breaks below $62 with volume Bear Market Rallies: Short rallies to $67-69 resistance zone Target Progression: $60 → $58 → $55 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bearish below $70 weekly resistance Swing Targets: $58-60 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes above $70 signal potential reversal Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Range: Multi-year consolidation $45-85 Long-term Targets: $52-58 completion of corrective phase Reversal Zone: $55-60 area for potential major low formation --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced US Participation) Market Conditions: Thin liquidity in US markets, focus on Asian/European sessions Technical Setup: Resistance: $66.00, $67.50, $68.50 Support: $63.00, $61.50, $60.00 Expected Range: $62.50-66.50 Trading Strategy: Reduced Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant smaller positions Range Strategy: Short rallies to $65.50-66.00, long support at $63.00 Gap Management: Monitor overnight developments in Middle East Risk Focus: Geopolitical news sensitivity during thin trading Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, inventory data focus Key Events & Strategy: API Inventory: Tuesday evening crude inventory report Technical Focus: $63 support test with volume analysis Geopolitical Monitor: Middle East tensions and OPEC+ developments Entry Strategy: Short $65-66.50 targeting $62-60 Risk Considerations: - Inventory surprise potential for sharp moves - Dollar strength impact on commodity complex - Chinese demand data influence Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: EIA inventory data and mid-week momentum Strategic Framework: EIA Report: Official US crude inventory data (10:30 AM EST) Technical Pattern: Monitor bear flag completion below $63 Volume Analysis: Institutional participation on breakdowns crucial Support Defense: $62 level critical for preventing accelerated decline Trading Approach: Pre-EIA: Light positioning due to event risk Post-EIA: React to inventory data with appropriate sizing Breakdown Play: Below $62 targets $60-58 zone Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly inventory impact and positioning for Friday Key Considerations: Inventory Digest: Market reaction to Wednesday's EIA data Technical Levels: $60-61 major support zone testing OPEC+ Watch: Monitor for any production policy signals Dollar Correlation: USD strength continuing to pressure commodities Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Below $62 favors $58-60 targets Counter-trend Risk: Any rally above $66 likely to be sold Profit Management: Scale out at key support levels Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and position squaring Final Session Strategy: Weekly Close: Below $62 very bearish, above $66 potentially bullish Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful breakdown trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and OPEC+ news flow considerations Position Review: Maintain swing shorts with appropriate stops Critical Levels: Weekly Bearish: Close below $62 Weekly Neutral: $62-66 range Weekly Bullish: Close above $66 --- Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis OPEC+ Production Policy Impact OPEC+ production dynamics remain crucial for oil price direction. The group has left the future of production cuts uncertain after September, with OPEC+ plans to gradually ease 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts by eight countries starting in April 2025. However, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. pressure on countries like India to stop buying Russian oil, could lead to further changes in OPEC+'s production strategy. US-India Tariff Impact Recent geopolitical developments show significant market impact, with WTI oil prices dropping from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India's ongoing oil trade with Russia. This demonstrates how trade policy directly affects oil pricing dynamics. Supply-Demand Fundamentals Market fundamentals show concerning trends with WTI fluctuating between $54 and $79 amid weak global economic growth, unstable demand in China, and lower production expectations by OPEC+. The EIA projects annual average crude oil production in 2026 will decrease 0.1 million b/d on average from the record in 2025. Key Risk Factors 1. US-China Trade Relations: Demand destruction from economic slowdown 2. Middle East Tensions: Potential supply disruption premium 3. OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty: Production cut extension decisions 4. US Dollar Strength: Inverse correlation with commodity prices 5. Global Economic Growth: Recession fears impacting demand projections --- Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis Historical Seasonal Patterns September Performance: Typically weak, hurricane season concerns Q4 Seasonality: Mixed, depends on winter weather forecasts Refinery Maintenance: September-October maintenance season reduces demand Heating Oil Demand: October-November typically supports complex Economic Cycle Positioning Current Phase: Late cycle with demand concerns mounting Inventory Cycle: Drawing season transitioning to building season Refining Margins: Weak crack spreads indicating demand issues Investment Cycle: Reduced capex affecting future supply growth --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Detailed Analysis Current Market Structure Assessment Bull Trap Scenario (75% Probability): Characteristics: Any rally above $67 likely false breakout Volume Profile: Low volume on rallies, high volume on declines Technical Setup: Failed reclaim of key moving averages Fundamental Support: Weak demand and oversupply concerns Target Failure: Rally stops at $68-70 resistance complex Bear Trap Scenario (25% Probability): Characteristics: False breakdown below $62 creating buying opportunity Catalyst Required: Major geopolitical event or supply disruption Volume Confirmation: High volume reversal from $60-62 support Technical Reversal: Hammer or bullish engulfing at key support Breakout Target: $70-75 following trap completion Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $67 on declining volume - Immediate reversal within 2-3 trading sessions - High volume selling on subsequent decline - RSI failure to confirm new highs Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp spike down to $60-62 on high volume - Quick reversal with gap up formation - Volume expansion on recovery move - Geopolitical catalyst supporting reversal --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total oil-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $0.20-0.40 per barrel maximum Intraday: $0.80-1.50 per barrel based on volatility Swing Trading: Above key resistance levels ($68 for current shorts) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 30% at first target, 40% at second, hold 30% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major inventory reports Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bearish Scenario (Probability: 70%) Primary Catalysts: - Continued demand concerns from China and global slowdown - Strong US Dollar pressuring commodities - Technical breakdown below $62 support with volume - OPEC+ production increase implementation Price Objectives: - Initial: $60-62 - Extended: $58-60 - Crisis: $54-56 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $60-67 - Mixed inventory data and economic signals - Technical indecision at support levels - OPEC+ policy uncertainty Bullish Scenario (Probability: 10%) Risk Factors: - Major geopolitical event or supply disruption - Significant inventory draw or refinery issues - Technical reversal from $60-62 support zone - Unexpected OPEC+ production cut extension Upside Targets: - Initial: $68-70 - Extended: $72-75 - Crisis Premium: $80+ --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Multi-Year Price Cycle Oil appears to be in a multi-year consolidation phase between $45-85, with current weakness potentially setting up major low formation in the $55-62 zone for eventual breakout above $85 targeting $110-120 by 2026-2027. Energy Transition Impact Long-term demand concerns from electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy transition continue to cap oil prices, creating ceiling around $85-90 level for sustained periods. --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) stands at a critical technical juncture near $64.61, exhibiting strong bearish momentum with potential for further decline toward the $58-60 zone. The confluence of technical breakdown, fundamental weakness, and geopolitical pressures suggests elevated probability for continued selling pressure. Key Bearish Factors: 1. Technical Breakdown: Clear break below $65-66 support zone 2. Fundamental Weakness: Demand concerns and oversupply issues 3. Geopolitical Pressure: US tariff policies affecting global trade 4. Seasonal Factors: Refinery maintenance season reducing demand Critical Monitoring Points: 1. $62 Support Level: Key defense line for bulls 2. Inventory Data: Weekly EIA reports for demand signals 3. OPEC+ Policy: Production cut extension decisions 4. Geopolitical Developments: Middle East tensions and trade policies Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with tactical short opportunities on rallies to $66-68 resistance zone. Target $58-60 for major profit-taking while managing risk above $68. Any sustained move above $70 would negate bearish thesis and suggest major reversal beginning. The September-October timeframe represents critical period for direction, with potential for either accelerated decline to $55 or major reversal from $58-62 support complex. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Oil trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
Current Price Action All MarketsWanted to share a picture of the daily TF price action of the major markets. 1) August has been a very slow market for forex. Nothing but chop... Especially over the last 3 weeks., 2)Stocks and gold have seen a slow grinding uptrend., Each market is unique in its own right and benefits not only different types of traders, but also different setups perform better during specific market conditions. It's essential to trade various types of market conditions to suit your style, as well as when you perform at your best and worst.
TVC:DXY
by MoneyballAustin
Bearish reversal off major resisstance?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 65.87 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 51.8% Fibonacci projection and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 67.42 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 63.50 Why we like it: There is an overlap in support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
Oil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut FearsOil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut Fears Russian supply risks are clashing with growing concerns of a global supply glut as summer winds down. Crude benchmarks gained over 1% in the previous session after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories, though the pace of declines slowed from the prior week. Analysts warn that OPEC+ unwinding production cuts, combined with rising output from non-member producers, could tip the market into surplus, according to MUFG’s Soojin Kim. While Brent continues to trade at a near-term premium, signaling tight supplies, that premium has narrowed — a sign of softening demand expectations ahead.
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by ProfessorSingapore