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WTI OIL Successive 1D MA50 rejections. Sell Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Down with the price experiencing successive rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the October 24 Lower High. Given that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level was also filled (as on the previous Lower High), we expect this inability to break above, to kickstart the new Bearish Leg. As previously, the Target is the Support at $56.00. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
Oil - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Downtrend line breakout. Higher highs. No opposite signs. Until the two strong support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by VladimirRibakov
USOIL Will Grow! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 60.422. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 65.013 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
2
USOIL: Q4/2025 Q1 2026 Action PlansSentiment: - The broader market is cautious in a risk-off environment, which typically translates to concerns about demand and the strength of the US dollar. However, the market is not in a state of panic as the Fear Index is at around 30, opening room for either direction. - Social Media (X/Twitter): The current tone is positive, as participants expect USOil to rise within the range of 57.50-65.00 in the near term, anticipating an upcoming upward breakout. - The COT report shows extremely bearish sentiment regarding the latest data from 26/9 (following the US government shutdown), so we can only have a snapshot of more than a month ago. Although the current sentiment may or may not be as extreme (we need to wait for the latest data), it still reflects the state of market positioning. - I think that Retail is unaware of positioning extremes and is more focused on technical breakout. It may lead to a sentiment shift as a result of a technical breakout and changes in the fundamental narrative. Fundamental: A. OPEC+ Production Shift: - Narrative: OPEC+ has pivoted to MORE cautious supply management. After nine consecutive monthly increases, the group is now implementing only a modest 137k bpd increase for Dec 2025, followed by a production pause for the entire first quarter of 2026. - Rationale: Healthy market fundamentals, low inventory levels, seasonal demand - It means more supportive than what we observed earlier in 2025. Q1 2026 pause suggests OPEC+ acknowledges oversupply risks and is being disciplined. One more thing to note is that the current price is also not entirely factored into this narrative. B. Geopolitical Risk Premium Returning: - Narrative: Recent US/EU sanctions on Russian energy companies and escalating tension in oil-producing regions are providing price support. - Market impact: This narrative provides a fundamental floor for price at least till the end of this year. C. Bearish Fundamentals - Oversupply into 2026: - Narrative: Despite the OPEC+ pause, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026 on weak demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases (such as the US production) - Factors: global inventories forecast to rise through 2026, weak demand from China, tariff uncertainties and US production at record levels. - Market impact: Bearish medium-term outlook for Q1-Q2 2026. Technical: - USOIL broke the small blue channel and is expected to reach the measured level at around 65, confluence with the Sep resistances. - If USOIL can hold above 60 (retest the broken channel), it may resume its momentum to retest the key resistance at 62 first, then 65, as measured by the move upon breaking. - Conversely, closing below the support at 59.30 may invalidate the short-term upward view and open the door for further decline, potentially retesting the swing low at 56.80. Conclusion: - Despite a short-term upward momentum until year-end, the prospect for USOIL in 2026 is not as promising. - Therefore, a range of 65-70 is possible for the short term upward plan; however, any surge bejond that may open another opportunity for counter-trade setups in Q1-Q2 2026. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
How to Trade Crude Oil with Smart Money Concepts SMC Explained Smart Money Concepts is one of the most reliable techniques for trading WTI Crude Oil. In this article, I will teach you a profitable SMC strategy for analysing and trading USOIL futures and CFD. This simple strategy is based on an important event every SMC trader should know - a break of structure BoS. In a bullish trend, the best break of structure will be based on a violation and a candle close above a current higher high. It will signify a highly probable bullish continuation and provides a great opportunity to buy Though you can spot a bullish break of structure on any time frame, the most reliable one is a daily. After a formation of a new high, I suggest waiting for a short term intraday correctional movement. With a high probability, the market will retest a recently broken structure and smart money will manipulate the market, pushing the price below that, making buyers close their positions. Once the market starts retracing, analyze an hourly time frame. The price will need to establish an i ntraday minor bearish trend. In this bearish trend, 2 trend lines should connect lower highs and lower lows composing an expanding, parallel or contracting channel - a bullish flag pattern. Your best signal will be a breakout of a resistance line of the flag and a violation of the level of the last lower high - a bullish change of character of a liquidity grab. It will confirm a completion of a correction. Buy the market on a retest of the level of the last higher low, it will be your best entry. Set your stop loss at least below a trend line and aim at the next strong daily resistance. That will be a perfect model for trading break of structure on WTI Crude Oil. We spotted such a setup in my trading academy on one of the live streams with my students. WTI Crude Oil was trading in an uptrend on a daily time frame. A bullish violation of the last Higher High and a candle close above that confirmed a Break of Structure BoS. The price started a correctional movement then, and we spotted a bullish flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The market completed a correction after grabbing a liquidity below a broken structure. A bullish movement started then, and the price violated a resistance line of the flag and the level of the last lower high. These 2 breakouts confirmed a completion of a correction and a resumption of a bullish trend. We opened a buy position immediately on a retest of a broken level of the last lower high. Stop loss was below a trend line, take profit was based on the closest key daily resistance. And the price went straight to the target. Break of Structure BoS will be useful for analysis, forecasting and trading WTI Crude Oil. Combining that with top-down analysis and lower time frames confirmations will provide accurate signals and profitable trading setups. Integrate a price model that I shared in your strategy, and good luck to you trading USOIL! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
3
Is XTI/USD Setting Up for a Sharp Bearish Correction?🚨 WTI/USD CRUDE OIL: THE BEARISH HEIST AWAITS 🎯 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ THE SETUP: Breaking Down The Crime Scene 🕵️‍♂️ We're executing a bearish pullback strategy on WTI/USD spot crude oil, leveraging the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) as our primary technical confirmation. The energy sector is flashing opportunity signals, and it's time to work the levels like a seasoned professional. 📊 STRATEGY FRAMEWORK Market Direction: Bearish Pullback from 200 SMA Resistance Timeframe: Suitable for Swing & Day Trading Operations Asset Class: Energies | WTI Crude Oil Spot 💰 THE LAYERED ENTRY STRATEGY (Multi-Level Approach) This is where the Thief Method shines—stacking limit orders at key price levels to accumulate positions as the market comes to you: Suggested Entry Layer Points: Layer 1: 60.50 💧 Layer 2: 60.00 💧 Layer 3: 59.50 💧 Layer 4: 59.00 💧 ⚠️ Pro Tip: Feel free to add or adjust layers based on your risk tolerance and position size. The beauty of this method is scalability—customize to YOUR account size and risk parameters. 🛑 STOP LOSS PLACEMENT Primary SL Level: 61.00 Positioned at the nearest swing high/candle wick resistance above our entry cluster. This respects natural market structure and gives us a defined, measurable risk point. ⚡ DISCLAIMER ON RISK MANAGEMENT: This is NOT financial advice. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. The suggested SL is based on technical structure, but YOU control your account. Set stops that align with YOUR risk tolerance. Trade only what you can afford to lose. 🎯 PROFIT TARGET STRUCTURE Primary Target: 56.50 Secondary Support Level: 56.00 — A police barricade of strength where multiple factors converge: Strong historical support confluence 📍 Oversold zone recognition ⚖️ Potential reversal trap (exit strategy alert) ⚠️ Exit Strategy: Consider banking profits at 56.50 before support intensifies at 56.00. Lock in gains as the technical structure suggests potential friction. ⚡ DISCLAIMER ON PROFIT TARGETS: Again, these are TECHNICAL levels only. YOU decide your exit strategy. Whether you take full profits at 56.50, trail stops, or use partial exits—this is YOUR trading plan. No setup is guaranteed. 🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Correlation Check) Understanding energy market interrelations helps you spot confirmation signals: US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) → Inverse correlation to crude oil. Strengthen USD = Bearish pressure on oil. Watch DXY for confirmation of our bearish bias. CSEMA:S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY / CME_MINI:ES1! ) → Risk sentiment indicator. If equities weaken, crude often follows bearish patterns. Check equity trends for macro confirmation. Energy Select Sector ETF ( AMEX:XLE ) → Direct correlation. Tracks large-cap energy stocks. Oil weakness often precedes XLE drops. FX:EURUSD → Global risk sentiment. Weak euro = risk-off environment = potential crude weakness. Monitor for macro context. AMEX:USO (Crude Oil ETF) → Direct oil tracking instrument. Moves in lockstep with WTI. Use for backup confirmation. 📋 THE THIEF STRATEGY CHECKLIST ✅ Confirm 200 SMA as resistance/bearish context ✅ Stack limit orders—don't chase price ✅ Define your personal stop loss (around 61.00 structure) ✅ Target scale-outs near 56.50-56.00 ✅ Use correlation pairs for macro confirmation ✅ Manage position size ruthlessly ✅ Accept losses—they're tuition in the market 💬 ENGAGEMENT BOOST ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #WTI #CrudeOil #EnergyTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #SwingTrading #DayTrading #Trading101 #ForexEnergy #MultiLayerEntry #RiskManagement #TradingSetup #FinancialMarkets #Energies #TradingCommunity
FXOPEN:XTIUSDShort
by The-Thief
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil has rebounded, presenting another selling opportunity. We maintain our bearish outlook on crude oil. Today, you can sell directly at 61.00, or consider selling at 61.50. Regardless of the fluctuations, it's a sell opportunity. Crude oil volatility has been minimal in recent months, so patience is needed to enter the market. The overall trend for crude oil is unlikely to change. Fundamental Analysis: There are no major data releases today; all are routine data. The most important data this week is tomorrow's CPI, which has seen significant fluctuations over the past year. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Watch Wednesday Reports for BrentOil market might have entered a key week. While end of US shutdown is in spotlight, 3 key reports will be released tomorrow. International Energy Agency will release November report. In the October report, IAE said that record oil surplus is expected in 2026. Oil demand expected to rise by 750 kb/d for both 2025 and 2026 while supply is expected to rise 3 mb/d for 2025 and 2.4 mb/d for 2026. Meaning oil surplus is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 mb/d in 2026. On top of IEA report OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report and EIA will publish monthly short-term energy outlook report in Wednesday. So far, composite forecasts and forward prices suggest that the market expects oil to remain near current levels in 2026. Projections indicate that in the first and second quarters of 2026, Brent will trade close to 60, with WTI slightly below that level before a potential recovery later in the year. However, futures and spreads have not yet been priced in a low Q1-Q2. Only two factors come to mind that could lift oil prices in 2026. The first is a surge in global energy demand that draws consumption back toward oil as prices stay low. The second is a worsening of the Ukraine–Russia war, which could lead to additional restrictions on Russian oil and more attacks on refineries. Beyond these possibilities, oil still faces a risk of trending lower. Brent oil has been in a downtrend for some time, and this trend is likely to continue in the medium term. Since the start of the year, the 60 level has acted as the main support. The price has dipped below it three times, but each instance was only a one-day spike. While 60 continues to hold, Brent is forming lower highs, which increases pressure on the support. In the event of a breakdown, the base case points to a decline toward the 54–55 zone, with a possible extension to 48 in a worst-case scenario. This week’s reports will be key for shaping 2026 expectations and could trigger preemptive price action in either direction.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by ftdsystem
1
Short-term rebound opportunities are emergingThe policy divergence of the Federal Reserve has emerged, and the expectation of a rate cut has not been completely reversed. Although some Fed officials (Schmid, Logan) oppose a rate cut in December, Powell emphasized that "policies need to balance the risks of employment and inflation", and member Milan advocated for a significant rate cut, while Baumann expected another rate cut twice before the end of the year. There is a significant divergence between the dovish and hawkish factions within the Fed. The probability of a rate cut in December remains at around 50% in the market, and the few hawkish remarks have not completely negated the trend of easing. Coupled with the narrow range fluctuation of the US dollar index near 99.66 today, it has not broken through the key resistance of 99.75, and the strengthening momentum of the US dollar has weakened marginally. The valuation pressure of crude oil priced in US dollars has eased, creating conditions for a rebound. Crude oil trading strategy buy：59.3-59.6 tp:60-60.5 sl:59
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Learn How to Trade WTI in 1 MinuteWTI in the 4H timeframe has formed a solid range for us that could lead to a strong trend after breaking out of it. Setup and Entry: A: Our long trigger is breaking the ceiling, meaning 60.329 , and B: Our short trigger is breaking the floor at 59.375 . Exit Plan: For scenario A, we can take profits at levels 61.203 and 61.891 —also, if you spot any kind of reject candle or reversal pattern on these levels, you can close the position. For scenario B, 57.360 could serve as a sort of final target; depending on the risk-to-reward you get, you can close or hold out for 56.321 . Short targets are more extensive because HWC and MWC also carry bearish momentum, which aids further drops—so the bearish bias here is stronger. Goal: For A, simply capturing the daily corrective wave; for B, continuing the MWC with partial profits to aim for higher R/R ratios. Thanks for your attention.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by SkepticLab
USOIL H1 | Bearish Momentum BuildingMomentum: Bearish Price is currently retracing toward the sell entry, which aligns with the descending trendline that has been tested at least three times. Sell entry: 60.16 Pullback resistance Stop loss: 60.71 Pullback resistance Take profit: 58.95 Swing low support Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (thttps://tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.50, target 58.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil has recently started to decline on the daily chart, with a larger drop than before. Previously, the declines were smaller, but recently the fall has accelerated. Sell on any rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance around 61.40. The daily moving averages are starting to diverge. A break below 55 would trigger a major daily downtrend. Currently, the market is experiencing a volatile decline. Fundamental Analysis: Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have signaled continued interest rate cuts. It is expected that the rapid easing policy will continue, which will support further buying and upward movement in gold. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 61.50, target 58.00-56.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
Crude oil: Consolidating sideways in the short term.Crude oil prices once hit a low not seen in over two weeks. In early trading on Monday, prices remained below the psychological threshold of $60 per barrel. Therefore, bullish traders should exercise caution before going long and adopt a prudent approach to positioning in anticipation of any substantial upward movement. Crude oil is oscillating within a range in the short term. Prices have repeatedly crossed the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend direction being sideways consolidation. The MACD indicator is hovering around the zero line, reflecting a stalemate between bullish and bearish momentum. With oil prices trading in the middle of the range in early trading, it is expected that intraday crude oil movement will remain within the range, and a range-bound trading strategy is recommended. Buy 58.8 - 59.3 SL 58.3 TP 59.8 - 60.3 - 61 Sell 60.4 - 61 SL 61.5 TP 59.1 - 58.5
TVC:USOIL
by KingArthur_
Next week's crude oil trading strategyThe expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been restored, and the decline in the US dollar index has boosted oil prices. In November, the core PPI of the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year (lower than the expected 3.0%), and the number of unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations and increased by 12% month-on-month. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen from 68% to 85%, and the cumulative interest rate cut expectation for 2026 has been restored from 75BP to 90BP. The marginal warming of the expectation of loose liquidity has pushed the US dollar index to fall from 100.5 to 99.2, and the valuation of major commodities priced in US dollars, such as crude oil, has been supported - historical data shows that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, the average crude oil price rises by 1.3%. The current decline in the US dollar has directly boosted oil prices. Next week's crude oil trading strategy buy：59.5-60 tp:60.5-601 sl:59
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
WTI on high time frame 1. **Current Price Action**: WTI has reached the $56 level, indicating a liquidity sweep. 2. **Signals for Higher Prices**: After the liquidity sweep, there are indications that prices may rise, with the first target at around $64. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The analysis is contingent on geopolitical stability, as any changes in tariffs or geopolitical situations can invalidate this forecast. If you need more detailed analysis or specific aspects explained, feel free to ask!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
CNX | Oil Is On The RISE | LONGCNX Resources Corp. is a premier independent low carbon intensity natural gas development, production, midstream, and technology company, which engages in the business of producing pipeline quality natural gas for sale primarily to gas wholesalers. It operates through the following segments: Shale, Coalbed Methane (CBM), and Other Gas. The Shale segment focuses on reserves, production, and capital investments. The CBM segment is involved in extracting CBM natural gas primarily from the Pocahontas No. 3 seam. The Other Gas segment includes nominal shallow oil and gas production. The company was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, PA.
NYSE:CNXLong
by DivergenceSeeker
WTI USOIL CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES# 🛢️ SPOTCRUDE (WTI CRUDE OIL) COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯 ## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Mastery Close Price: 59.989 USD/barrel | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 📈 ## 🔍 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE WTI Crude Oil (SPOTCRUDE) is trading at a critical technical inflection point with exceptional multi-timeframe alignment signaling imminent directional breakout. Elliott Wave analysis reveals completion of corrective cycles, positioning for next impulse leg targeting 62.50-65.00 extension zone with powerful momentum. Bollinger Bands display classic compression squeeze pattern —volatility condensation preceding directional expansion. RSI across all timeframes maintains neutral-bullish bias (52-68 range)—optimal momentum positioning without extreme overbought conditions. Volume clustering at 59.50-60.50 represents significant institutional accumulation foundation. Wyckoff spring tests near 58.50-59.00 provide aggressive entry triggers. Harmonic pattern convergence at 61.00-62.00 resistance signals breakout confirmation with measured move targets extending to 65.00+. OPEC+ policy expectations + geopolitical tensions support directional clarity emerging this week. ## 📊 TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-MINUTE (Scalping Precision) ⚡ Candlestick Formation: Japanese candles reveal micro-consolidation with breakout attempts at support zones. Evening Star rejection formations detected at 61.50-62.00 intraday resistance creating reversal opportunities. Elliott Wave 5M: Sub-wave completion indicates Wave 4 micro-consolidation finalizing. Wave 5 breakout anticipated above 60.20-60.50 with targets 61.50-62.00 (measured move). Bollinger Bands: Upper compression mode—middle band at 59.95 acts as pivot point. Lower band rejection (59.20-59.50) creates scalp-long setups with excellent risk/reward. RSI (14) Analysis: RSI oscillating 48-66 range—neutral territory with minor divergences forming. Bullish divergence at 59.30 support signals buyer engagement; caution on 72+ resistance. Micro Support/Resistance: 59.20 (micro-support) | 59.70 (POC cluster) | 60.20 (pivot) | 61.20 (intraday resistance) | 61.80 (scalp target) Volume Signature: Volume concentrated 59.70-60.30 zone—institutional marker. Breakout volume >50% above average required above 61.20 for sustained move above 62.00. VWAP Alignment: Price oscillating around session VWAP at 59.80—each touch generates scalp opportunity. Upper VWAP band at 61.50; lower support at 59.20. ### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing Gateway) 🎢 Candlestick Patterns: Engulfing bars forming at support zones—bullish engulfing at 59.50 zone confirms reversal attempts. Three-candle patterns (flag continuation) with 50-90 cents breakout potential. Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Gartley Pattern potential completion near 59.40-59.80 PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). Exceptional risk-reward at 1:3.6 for harmonic traders. Butterfly variant also forming. Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: Classic accumulation evident—small barometer move (SBM) nearing completion. Spring test anticipated 58.50-58.90 zone; markup phase targets 62.00-63.50. Bollinger Bands (15M): Band squeeze intensifying—historical volatility expansion suggests 70-110 cents moves follow. Upper band resistance at 62.00; lower band support at 58.90. Volume Profile (15M): Point of Control (POC) at 59.85—prime concentration zone. Volume surge >55% required confirming breakout above 61.50. Imbalances favor upside significantly. Ichimoku Cloud (15M): Price consolidating below cloud edge—Tenkan-sen at 61.50 = resistance pivot. Kijun-sen (61.00) = critical secondary support. Cloud support 59.50-60.20. EMA Structure: EMA 9 (60.20) above EMA 21 (59.80)—bullish alignment confirmed. Price above both = intraday strength maintained. ### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing Axis) 🔄 Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle pattern consolidating with apex near 61.50. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish bias—breakout above 61.20 targets 62.50-63.50 extension. Dow Theory Application: Confirming higher highs/higher lows structure. Secondary trend bullish; pullbacks to EMA 20 (60.10) = optimal swing entry zones. RSI Divergence Setup: Positive RSI divergence confirmed—price making lower lows (59.00) while RSI forms higher lows (38 level). Classic reversal setup targeting 61.50 minimum. Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 (60.30) = core support pivot. EMA 21 (59.80) = secondary support. EMA 50 (58.50) = structural hold level. Bullish ribbon alignment intact. Support Architecture: 58.50 (EMA 50/structural) | 59.20 (demand zone) | 59.80 (volume cluster) | 60.20 (EMA 9 dynamic) Resistance Architecture: 61.20 (triangle formation) | 61.80 (measured move target) | 62.50 (weekly resistance) | 63.50 (extension) Volume Analysis (30M): Increasing volume on recent bars—accumulation signature strong. Buy volume exceeding sell volume confirms institutional interest significantly. ### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade Engine) 🎯 Elliott Wave Structure: Major wave analysis suggests Wave 3 completion near 62.50. Current Wave 4 correction targets 60.50-61.00 support zone. Wave 5 impulse anticipated—target: 63.50-65.00. Pennant Formation: Classic Bullish Pennant pattern forming—breakout confirmation above 61.50 validates pattern. Pole height measured move = 63.50+ realistic target. Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 62.50 = squeeze breakout target. Middle band (61.50) = bullish support zone. Lower band rejection (58.50) creates swing longs with excellent R/R. VWAP Daily: Oil trading above daily VWAP at 59.50—bullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens continuation probability. Volume Profile Hotspot: Heavily traded at 59.70-60.30 (accumulation zone) and 61.50-62.00 (resistance cluster). Imbalances above 62.50 suggest vacuum-fill potential. Ichimoku Cloud Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A (61.50) & Span B (61.00)—cloud thickness indicates strong support. Chikou Span above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color: BULLISH GREEN. Gann Theory Application: 45-degree angle from swing low (57.50) establishes rally trajectory. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (61.80) precedes aggressive breakout phase. Support Tiers 1H: 58.50 (structural hold) | 59.20 (EMA support) | 59.80 (Kijun-sen) | 60.30 (accumulation zone) Resistance Tiers 1H: 61.50 (breakout trigger) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (major level) | 63.50 (impulse target) ### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Thesis Foundation) 💼 Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: Potential IH&S formation completing—left shoulder (58.20), head (57.80), right shoulder completing (58.50-59.00). Neckline breakout at 61.50 targets 63.00-64.00 extension. Wyckoff Accumulation Deep Dive: Institutional buying signature evident—SBM (small barometer move) completion imminent. Spring test to 58.20-58.60 anticipated; subsequent markup phase targets 63.50-64.50. RSI 4H Analysis: RSI at 56-70 range—bullish bias maintained. Room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 74 targets 63.50+; below 34 = defensive posture required. Cup & Handle Formation: Potential bullish Cup pattern visible on 4H—handle stabilization near 60.20-61.00. Breakout above handle (61.80) targets cup depth extension = 63.50-64.00. EMA Ribbon Structure: EMA 8 (60.80), EMA 13 (60.50), EMA 21 (59.80), EMA 50 (58.50), EMA 200 (56.00)—BULLISH ALIGNMENT PERFECT. Compression/expansion cycles identify momentum phases. Support Tiers 4H: 58.20 (structural support) | 58.50 (accumulation) | 59.50 (pivot) | 60.30 (demand cluster) Resistance Tiers 4H: 61.50 (key breakout) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (major target) | 63.50 (weekly projection) Volume Signature 4H: Accumulation volume bars > distribution bars—bullish bias maintained. Volume nodes clustering at 59.70-60.30 indicate strong institutional support zone. ### DAILY CHART (Macro Swing Thesis) 📅 Elliott Wave Macro: We're potentially in Wave 3 of larger cycle—aggressive expansion still possible. Wave structure supports break of 62.50 targeting 64.50-66.00 daily close objectives. Double Bottom Recognition: Historical Double Bottom pattern near 57.00-58.00 support—confirmed breakthrough above 61.50 neckline triggered. Second target near 63.00-64.00. Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 63.50 = realistic daily target zone. Mean (61.50) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansion—expect 200-350 cents daily ranges. Volume Profile Daily: Strong buying volume bar at 58.50-60.00 zone—institutional accumulation marker established. Selling volume decreasing—demand controls trend absolutely. Ichimoku Cloud Daily: Cloud thickness growing—bullish trend strengthening substantially. Cloud support around 60.00-61.50 zone. Kumo breakout anticipated—targets cloud top at 62.50-63.50. Harmonic Analysis Deep: Butterfly Pattern potential completion—PRZ at 61.50-62.00 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability of extension. Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (59.50) + 61.8% extension (62.50) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 62.00-63.00 as structural resistance before continuation. Key Daily Support: 57.80 (psychological/structural) | 58.50 (accumulation zone) | 59.50 (demand level) | 60.20 (midpoint) Key Daily Resistance: 61.50 (breakout trigger) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (measured move) | 64.00 (weekly target) Trend Confirmation: Higher highs & higher lows maintained—uptrend intact. Daily close above 62.50 = strong continuation signal targeting 65.00+ next level. ## 🎪 TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14 ### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 79%) ✅ Trigger: 4H candle close above 61.80 + volume surge (>50% above average) + RSI above 64 Entry Zone: 61.00-61.50 (with breakout confirmation signal) Target 1: 62.00 (TP1) | Target 2: 62.50 (TP2) | Target 3: 63.50 (TP3) | Target 4: 64.50 (TP4) Stop Loss: 59.70 (below EMA/structural support) Risk/Reward: 1:3.2 (excellent asymmetric setup) Trade Duration: 18-72 hours (prime swing window) ### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 21%) ⚠️ Trigger: Daily close below 60.20 + volume increase + RSI divergence failure Entry Zone: 61.80-62.50 (short setup) Target 1: 61.50 (TP1) | Target 2: 61.00 (TP2) | Target 3: 60.20 (TP3) Stop Loss: 63.50 (above resistance) Risk/Reward: 1:1.6 (acceptable but lower probability) Trade Duration: Watch for trend reversal confirmation first ## ⚠️ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression → Expect significant expansion imminent 5M/15M RSI: 48-66 range (neutral)—room for 30-60 cents movements | Scalp target zones 30M/1H RSI: 52-70 range (bullish bias, optimal zone)—sweet spot for swing entries 4H RSI: 56-72 range—approaching caution zone but room to extend | Safe for core swings Daily RSI: 60-74 range (approaching extremes)—be defensive if daily RSI>76 | Take profits aggressively Overbought Recognition Points: RSI daily >75 combined with upper Bollinger Band rejection = immediate profit-taking Ichimoku cloud top penetration fails (bearish candle rejection) = trend exhaustion signal Volume declining on breakout attempt = false breakout warning signal Harmonic pattern PRZ exact hit without follow-through = reversal likely imminent Oversold Bounce Setups: RSI 1H <32 on support touch = high-probability bounce back to 61.50-62.00 Price below EMA 50 (58.50) + RSI <30 = aggressive accumulation zone Spring test below 58.40 with volume surge = Wyckoff spring reversal trigger Harmonic pattern PRZ support bounce = measured move extension targets activated ## 🎯 ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY ### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING For Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 40-50 zone after Band lower touch = 15-30 cents scalp (1-3 min holds) For Quick Swings (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 61.20 with 4H alignment = 70-120 cents swing (30 min-2 hour holds) For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 61.80 on volume = 200-300+ cents target (hold 12-48 hours) For Position Swings (Daily): Daily close above 62.50 = continuation play targeting 64.00-65.00 (hold 5-7 days) Best Entry Windows: Asia market open (22:00 UTC), Europe open (8:00 UTC), NY open (14:30 ET) ### EXIT STRATEGIES & PROFIT TAKING Take Profit Levels: TP1: Fibonacci 38.2% (61.80) | TP2: Harmonic PRZ (62.30) | TP3: Daily Band upper (63.50) | TP4: Weekly target (64.50) Stop Loss Placement: Always below most recent swing low + 20 cents (strict risk management priority) Trailing Stops: Activate at TP2—trail with 30-40 cents buffer for 4H+ trades (lock in profits) Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achieved—eliminate emotional trading Partial Profit Strategy: Close 25% at TP1 | 25% at TP2 | 25% at TP3 | Let 25% run to TP4 (maximize winners) ## 🔔 REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST ### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO MONITOR: RSI positive divergence (lower price lows, higher RSI lows) = bullish reversal setup high probability Candlestick engulfing patterns at support/resistance zones = trend reversal confirmation strong signal Volume profile breakdowns (declining volume on breakout attempts) = false move warning immediate Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer) = structural resistance confirmed Harmonic pattern completion at exact PRZ = reversal zone probability increases significantly Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation) = impulse completion = reversal imminent trigger Gann angle break through significant angle = trend line break = reversal trigger activated ### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES: Close beyond resistance with >50% volume surge above average = confirmed breakout signal strong RSI crosses above 60 for bullish breakout, below 45 for bearish breakout confirmation VWAP alignment with directional move = institutional participation confirmation strong Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release) = volatility expansion confirmed immediate Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H + 4H aligned) = highest probability setup attainable Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds with bullish candles) = strong continuation signal Volume imbalance (ask volume > bid volume) = directional sustain likelihood increases significantly ## 💡 WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14 Monday (10th): 🌍 Consolidation continuation near 60.00-61.00 zone. Range-bound trading anticipated. Early breakout direction watch crucial. Entry setups favor reversal plays at support zones. Tuesday-Wednesday (11-12th): 📈 Prime breakout window opens —61.50 represents key decision point. Expect 150-250 cents daily volatility. Breakout confirmation targets 62.50-63.00 extension. This is the optimal swing trade window all week. OPEC+ headlines watch critical. Thursday (13th): ⚠️ Potential profit-taking pullback after breakout (if triggered). Support retest of 62.00-61.50. Buying opportunity if pullback holds above 60.50. Friday (14th): 📊 Weekly close pattern formation critical. Extension run anticipated if above 62.50. If above 63.00 = week target 64.00-65.00 achieved. End-of-week positioning for next week. ## 📍 CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES - KEY TARGETS 58.20-58.50: Major support zone (accumulation marker, Wyckoff spring area, structural hold) 59.20-60.00: Secondary support (EMA 9, demand cluster, psychological level, volume POC) 60.20-61.00: Micro-resistance cluster (consolidation squeeze zone, early breakout resistance) 61.50-62.00: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (triangle apex, harmonic confluence, all timeframe resistance) 62.00-63.00: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band upper, measured move extension) 63.00-64.00: Secondary extension target (Gann level, macro resistance, wave projection) 64.00-65.00+: Weekly/monthly target (if wave 5 impulse extends beyond base projections) ## 🏆 RISK MANAGEMENT RULEBOOK ✅ 1) Position Sizing: Never risk >2% of account equity per single trade ✅ 2) Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 R/R on every entry—1:3+ preferred for swing trades ✅ 3) Profit Scaling: Close 25-50% at 1:1 ratio, let remainder run to 1:2+ targets ✅ 4) Stop Loss Discipline: Place stop IMMEDIATELY on entry—no exceptions (20 cents tight) ✅ 5) Breakout Confirmation: Avoid FOMO—wait for candle close confirmation + volume surge always ✅ 6) Daily Support Respect: Psychological holds (60.00 | 62.00 | 65.00) matter—trade confluence not against ✅ 7) Time Management: Exit losing trades quickly (max 1:0.5 acceptable for educational losses) ✅ 8) Macro Alignment: Always check daily/4H bias before taking 1H or lower trades ## #SPOTCRUDE #WTIOIL #CRUDEOIL #OILTRADING #TECHNICALANALYSIS #ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING #SWINGTRADER #DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #COMMODITIES #TRADINGVIEW #BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY #WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS #ANALYSIS #SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD #REVERSAL #COMMODITYTRADING #ENERGYTRADING #BREAKOUTSETUP #TRADERSOFTWITTER #TECHNICALTRADER #CANDLESTICK #PATTERRECOGNITION #CHARTANALYSIS #DAYTRADER ## 🎁 BONUS: DAILY PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST Use this every morning before market open: ☑️ Check daily RSI (should be 60-72 for bullish bias continuation) ☑️ Identify support/resistance zones (59.70 | 60.50 | 61.50 | 63.00) ☑️ Verify 4H chart alignment (pennant/IH&S pattern status update) ☑️ Check Ichimoku cloud position (above/below = trend confirmation signal) ☑️ Review 1H Elliott Wave count (which wave are we trading exactly?) ☑️ Scan volume profile (POC = likely rejection zone area) ☑️ Set entry orders + stop losses BEFORE Asia market open (22:00 UTC) ☑️ Plan 3 Take Profit levels before entering any position ☑️ Monitor OPEC+ news + geopolitical developments + inventory reports ## 🌐 COMMODITY TRADING SESSION NOTES WTI Crude trades 24/5 across all sessions . Highest volatility typically occurs: Asian Session (22:00-8:00 UTC): Lower volatility—good for breakout setups forming European Session (8:00-16:30 UTC): Prime trading hours —peak liquidity + volatility combination NY Session (14:30-21:00 UTC): Secondary volatility surge—often confirms European direction Supply/Demand Drivers: Monitor OPEC+ policy, US inventory data, geopolitical risk, dollar strength 💡 Disclaimer: This technical analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own due diligence and implement appropriate risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly within your risk tolerance. Use stop losses on every position. Not financial advice. Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025 | Updated Daily
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
Crude oil: test the upside potentialAfter completing the consolidation and foundation-building phase yesterday, crude oil has maintained a fluctuating upward trend today. We will continue to monitor the strength and effectiveness of the rebound. Based on the momentum of the consolidation, crude oil should be able to extend its gains today. If the momentum is strong, it could reach around 61. Therefore, from a short-term perspective, we can still take long positions to test the upside potential. Buy 58.8 - 59.3 SL 58.3 TP 59.8 - 60.3 - 61 Sell 61 - 60.5 SL 61.5 TP 59.5 - 59 - 58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by KingArthur_
The Imminent U.S.–Iran Crisis: A Real-Time Analytical AssessmentDate of Analysis: Friday, November 7, 2025 Overview The following is a condensed version of a dynamic strategic discussion between an intelligent user and an AI assistant. The analysis aimed to decode the hidden layers of a potentially imminent military crisis in the Middle East through real-time observation of geopolitical developments. Introduction: Initial Hypothesis and the Major Shift The analysis initially rested on the assumption that following the “12-Day War” (June 2025), the region was in a fragile ceasefire. The central question was when the “second round” of conflict might begin. It was correctly identified that Israel’s main constraint was a shortage of defensive missiles. Turning Point: Assuming four months had passed since the first war, it was concluded that the logistical bottleneck (missile defense shortage) had likely been resolved. This invalidated earlier timelines predicting renewed conflict by December and instead shifted the danger window to November—the current month. Part I: The Strategic Deception (Iraq and Venezuela as Cover) Attention then turned to a wave of simultaneous “crisis signals”: rising talk of “a U.S. conflict with Venezuela” and “U.S. warnings to Iraq.” Assessment: These were identified as elements of a classic deception operation, intended to divert the attention of the media, diplomats, and, most importantly, Iran’s intelligence and defense systems away from the real target. This served as a perfect cover for preparing a strike on Iran. Part II: Breakdown of the Deception and Loss of Surprise Key Insight (User’s Observation): The user correctly noted that this deception had failed. With “war with Iran” trending again in global media and official warnings escalating, Iran was no longer complacent—it had entered maximum alert. This fundamentally changed the dynamics. The element of surprise, the attacker’s greatest asset, was now entirely lost. Part III: The “Forced Hand” Scenario When surprise evaporates, what can the attacker (the U.S. and Israel) do next? Analysis: The attacker is now trapped in a strategic stalemate: Cost of Attrition: Maintaining full-scale military readiness for both sides is expensive, stressful, and unsustainable. Risk of Delay: Every passing hour allows Iran to disperse and conceal its strategic assets (missiles, drones), making target acquisition harder. Point of No Return: The use of Venezuela and Iraq as covers was the equivalent of cocking a rifle—any retreat now would amount to a catastrophic strategic humiliation for the U.S. Time-Based Conclusion: Since the deception failed and surprise is gone, the attacker is effectively compelled to act. They must launch the attack before their forces degrade further and before Iran becomes even more fortified. New Urgent Window: Within 24 to 72 hours (this very weekend). Part IV: The Hidden Economics of War — Why “Crisis” Becomes a “Solution” In the final stage, the focus shifted from “when” to “why”, exploring the economic motives driving the potential escalation. The analysis suggested that this war could serve as a planned economic reset to address U.S. domestic challenges. Global Economic Shock: The immediate aftermath of an attack would be a spike in oil prices (estimated to surpass $150 per barrel within 24 hours) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation—triggering global stagflation. Dollar Strength (Flight to Safety): During such turmoil, global investors would flee risky assets (like crypto, which had already pre-priced a downturn) and rush into U.S. dollars, causing the DXY index to surge. Domestic Political and Economic Diversion (Wag the Dog Effect): This crisis would allow the U.S. government to: Deflect attention from domestic debt and weak economic indicators (e.g., PMI and recession risks). Reignite the military-industrial complex, boosting GDP through massive arms sales to regional allies and internal consumption. Justify inflation by attributing it to “geopolitical instability and rising oil prices” rather than past monetary policies.
TVC:USOILLong
by mehdikebrititrader