Still short from $54, have not sold or added to my position at all.
Blue line: $52 transition line, this line needs to be broken strong for us to head lower imo.
Red trend-lines: We've see an increase in prices, with declining RSI. This is a bear divergence.(whether or not it will play it is another story, yet I believe it will)
Orange line: This was a bull RSI...
So I didn't sell any of my $54 oil shorts today when it rebounded, I just moved my stop to break-even.
Today we saw a major miss in inventories, which was initially bearish, but was somehow bullish?
I'm still short because of the numerous reports that essentially the OPEC "cut" is garbage, and on top of that oil inventories are growing, while demand remains...
Continued idea from previous.
1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short).
2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts.
3 - Most big players got out December 30th,...
Continuing with the idea published the last week. It may be starting the third wave (short) today. My recomendation: enter when the price breaks 52.74 and enjoy the sell!
Dollar strength is here to stay.
Fiscal stimulus, rate hikes, $10 trillion off-shore dollar debt, rising US yields, DXY breaking out of a multi-year consolidation zone.
The attached chart shows a strong INVERSE correlation between DXY and oil.
As the dollar strengthens, the oil price soon follows.
At present, there is a MASSIVE divergence between the oil...
Oil Trading around 50.75 once Again oil Reject above 51.5 level drop badly from that level and also going to give Day closing below 51.5 which can move a corrective move toward 48.5-49 level.
Advice to sell in range of 50.75-51.8 sl above 52.5 TP 49
The same format is happening again, last time we had nice uptrend and it gave nice profit to us. i hope the same way we can reach the 39.64 .
Trade with care, Its just a idea
oil trading around 48.35 its completed its 0.618%
of high 51.85 and low 42.2 so level 0.618-0.786
can b turning point and it can take little
correction towards 45.5-46 level
As Technical Sell advice in range of 48.35-49.2
sl above 49.7 TP1 47 TP2 45.5
The oil market in the following days will be very shaky but ultimately, it will reach $43 which is my first TP. From there on I am not sure about oil direction as the indicators on different time scales greatly contradict themselves and some data also contradicts other data and indicators.
Previously I was considering that the Wave B/2 was complete where I have placed the vertical line, now I'm taking that as the Secondary Count.
The Primary count ( In Blue ) is that the Wave B/2 is still under progression as a Flat correction and that it should see lower levels of atleast 40$ and can even go down till 32$ to complete the Wave C.
T1 : 40
T2 : 36
T3...
In accordance to my previous idea, my sentiment on oil today and for the following days is bearish. On the weekly chart, oil looks to have a lot of room for downside with the MACD flat, just barely crossing over and the STOCHS signaling a reversal. I think if this pattern completes we should see $40 oil within the next 2 weeks. This of course should be helped...
I would like to apologize for my previous analysis on oil. Whilst the idea was correct, I falsly planted the fib retracement a nd got wrong levels. Apparantly, the new pivot point is at $46.1. Thus I changed my target to that. Other than the wrong levels, you can read "Oil hates uncertainty" for more information on the trade.
I think we now have a better chance to short oil!
It reversed on major resistance, crossed the trend line and the 50 EMA. You can sell the correction or the bearish flag. Or you can sell the failure of resistance retest. This is in my view the safest way to short Oil on this level.
