Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88...
ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish: +8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2. Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of...
We have monthly OpEx this week and futures contract rollover. Options are pointing to a move down to 4250 on SPX first and then based on CPI and PPI, a potential dump to 4150 or a ramp to 4400. Expect a 125pt move from 4300 above/below. Flip point would be 4290-4310 , can treat that as no mans land.
JHQTX and OPEX Window of Weakness 1. Vanna and Charm Flows gain strength 2. VIX Print for the month 3. Window of Weakness Options and Vol are entering in a very fragile time when flows can be at their technical weakest. When social media start speaking about goldilocks (economy goes not to hot, not to cold). That could be this months OPEX (Options Expiry). A...
Some people have been worried about NYSE:GME and if the cycles were dead. Good news gme looks to still be on the cycle. Bad news Nov opex was in November. Shocked Pickachu face. After falling from the August run up gme stayed flat (1) while other meme stocks like NYSE:AMC and NASDAQ:TSLA fell (2). Because gme didn't get shorted it had a weak barely...
Not a great day to trade. Perfect example of what not to do on boring slow OPEX days especially after a huge gap down. Should have avoided it or only take A+ set up trades. Got burned and ended up revenge trading in the power hour to gain some losses back, but still ended up red on the day. Anyway, HAPPY MEXICAN INDEPENDENCE DAY!!!
Both the indices showing the Ascending Wedge Pattern. I would like to see the break of support around 11266.75 for NQ and 3700.00 for S&P to short but ideal entry would be on the break of the pattern + re-test of the support trendline. Targets for NQ1! - 11228.50 11165.50 111068.75 Targets for ES1! - 3700.00 3661.50 3642.00 NOTE: This pattern is forming...
OPEX Day with a record number of expiring contracts. SPY ideally uses the 438-area / yesterday POC + DEMA 200 as new Support and holds it. Low volume day expected with some volatility - Past Fr/Mo were red, so be careful towards the close
After the runup post FOMC, Futures clipped again 437/8 Resistance and with not ideal news from russia we will likely re-test 432 today. OPEX tomorrow, so most of the big contracts will be rolled today to be safe. That happens usually with very low volume.
Yhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones...
Tesla $TSLA has 38.25% of gamma expiring this Friday Breach of 908/900 would fill gap lower to 895. Previous upside nine from Jan 885 could act as support. 875 is a previous upside nine on the daily from Oct 18, bottom of that range is 850/843 and lower Fib support is near 815. MACD / RSI currently over sold with ATR expanding after selling volume came in after...
Going over key levels to watch heading into FOMC / Dec OPEX week. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to share. Best wishes to all you discretionary traders navigating this market.
Going over key levels on the SPX ahead of the FOMC and Dec OPEX. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to share. Thanks!
Lots of volatility possible in between now and Quad Witching in 2 weeks. Thu Dec9 30-y Auction Fri Dec 10 CPI Wed Dec 15 FOMC Fri Dec 17 Quad Witching The first 3 I don't think are going to cause much volatility, but it all depends on the result of each. The Quad Witching may be a bit more predictable. During the past 2 years, the QE+Stimulus...
Every 3rd Friday of the calendar month is OPEX (Option Expiration). The difference during the most recent OPEX cycle was: Excessive Front Running OPEX DIP Evergrande / Contagion Debt Ceiling Crisis China / Taiwan Tensions Inflation / Hyperinflation ------- Kai Volatility ------ Kai Volatility refers what happened as a Second Move Phenomenon....
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups...
This is the short term view of Apple. Currently within wave 4 (green) of wave 3 (blue) of wave 5 (white) im expecting a bounce this week to 155 before a trace for leg C to finish the green wave 4 around 148. From there 165 is the target, likely by late Nov to mid Dec. Keep in mind that Sept 17 and Dec 17 are quad witching days. I may look to play Nov or Dec...
Interesting cadence of SPY bounces "coincidentally" appear to be happening right around/before major OPEX dates. Would be interesting if this trend continues or we finally get the 10-20% correction all the bears are starving for