NVDA 5 trln USD market cap up next? Key fundamentals and upside.Is $5T reasonable for NVDA?
• Mechanically, yes: The market only needs ~10% near-term appreciation from today’s levels to print $5T. That’s within one strong quarter or a guidance beat.
• Fundamentally, the math works if (a) FY26–27 revenue tracks the guide/Street trajectory (TTM already $165B with Q3 guide $54B), (b) non-GAAP GMs hover low-to-mid-70s, and (c) opex discipline holds. Under those, forward EPS path supports ~35× at $5T, a premium but not outlandish for a category-defining compute platform.
• Free-cash optionality: With ~$48B net cash and massive FCF, NVDA can keep funding buybacks (already $60B fresh authorization) and capacity, smoothing cycles.
________________________________________
• Stock price at $5T market cap: ≈ $205.8 per share (on ~24.3B shares).
• Gain needed from $186.6: +$19.2 (~+10.3%).
The quick math (market cap ⇒ price)
• Shares outstanding (basic): ~24.3 B (as of Aug 22, 2025, per 10-Q).
• Stock @ $5T market cap: $5,000,000,000,000 ÷ 24.3B ≈ $205.8/share.
• From today’s price $186.6: needs +$19.2 or ~+10.3%.
That also implies P/E (TTM) at $5T of roughly ~56× (using TTM EPS ~3.68). Today’s trailing P/E is ~50–53× depending on feed.
________________________________________
Core fundamentals snapshot 🧩
Latest quarter (Q2 FY26, reported Aug 27, 2025)
• Revenue: $46.7B (+56% y/y; +6% q/q).
• Data Center revenue: $41.1B (+56% y/y).
• GAAP gross margin: 72.4%; non-GAAP 72.7%; Q3 guide ~73.3–73.5%.
• GAAP EPS: $1.08 (non-GAAP: $1.05; excl. $180M inventory release: $1.04).
TTM scale & profitability
• Revenue (TTM): ~$165.2B.
• Net income (TTM): ~$86.6B.
• Diluted EPS (TTM): ~$3.5–3.7.
• Cash & marketable securities: $56.8B; debt: ~$8.5–10.6B ⇒ net cash ≈ $48B.
Capital returns
• $24.3B returned in 1H FY26; new $60B buyback authorization (no expiration). Remaining buyback capacity ~$71B as of Aug 26.
________________________________________
Valuation read (today vs. $5T)
Using widely watched metrics:
• P/E (TTM): ~50–53× today; at $5T it rises to ~56× (assuming flat TTM EPS).
• Forward P/E: Street FY27 EPS ≈ $5.91 → ~31–33× today; ~35× at $5T — still below many AI hyper-growth narratives that trade at 40–50× forward when growth visibility is high.
• EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV ≈ market cap – net cash. Today EV ~$4.45T; EBITDA TTM ≈ $98–103B ⇒ EV/EBITDA ~43–45×; at $5T EV/EBITDA drifts to ~48–50×.
• P/S (TTM): ~27× today (at $4.5T) and ~30× at $5T on $165.2B TTM revenue.
• FCF yield: TTM FCF range $60.9–72.0B ⇒ ~1.35–1.60% today; ~1.22–1.44% at $5T.
Takeaway: $5T doesn’t require a heroic repricing — it’s ~10% above spot and implies ~35× forward earnings if consensus holds. That’s rich vs. the S&P (~22.5× forward) but arguably reasonable given NVDA’s growth, margins, and quasi-platform status in AI compute.
________________________________________
What must be true to justify $5T (and beyond) ✅
1. AI capex “supercycle” persists/expands. Citi now models $490B hyperscaler AI capex in 2026 (up from $420B) and trillions through 2029–30. A sustained 40–50% NVDA wallet share across compute+networking underwrites revenue momentum and margin sustainment.
2. Annual product cadence holds. Blackwell today → Rubin in 2026 with higher power & bandwidth, widening the perf gap vs. AMD MI450 — supports pricing power and mix.
3. Margins stay “mid-70s” non-GAAP. Company guides ~73.3–73.5% near term; sustaining 70%+ through transitions offsets any unit price compression.
4. Networking, software & systems scale. NVLink/Spectrum, NVL systems and CUDA/Enterprise subscriptions deepen the moat and smooth cyclicality; attach expands TAM (improves EV/EBITDA vs. pure-GPU lens).
5. China/export workarounds do not derail mix. Q2 had no H20 China sales; guidance and commentary frame this as manageable with non-China demand and limited H20 redirection.
________________________________________
A contrarian check (where the model could break) 🧨
• Power & grid bottlenecks. Even bulls (Citi) note AI buildouts imply tens of GW of incremental power; slippage in datacenter electrification can defer GPU racks, elongating deployments (and revenue recognition).
• Debt-funded AI spend. Rising share of AI DC capex is being levered (Oracle’s $18B bonds; neoclouds borrowing against NVDA GPUs). If credit windows tighten, orders could wobble.
• Customer consolidation & vertical ASICs. Hyperscalers iterating custom silicon could cap NVDA’s mix/price in some workloads; edge inference may fragment.
• China policy volatility. Export rules already forced product pivots; rebounds are uncertain and not fully in NVDA’s control.
• Multiple risk. At ~50× TTM and >40× EV/EBITDA, any growth decel (unit or pricing) can de-rate the multiple faster than earnings make up the gap.
Bottom line of the bear case: If AI capex normalizes faster (say +10–15% CAGR instead of +25–35%), forward EPS still grows, but the stock would likely need multiple compression (toward ~25–30× forward), making $5T less sticky near-term.
________________________________________
Street positioning (latest bullish calls) 📣
• KeyBanc: $250 (Overweight) — Rubin cycle deepens moat → ~+34% implied upside.
• Barclays: $240 (Overweight) — AI infra wave; higher multiple to 35×. ~+29% upside.
• Bank of America: $235 (Buy). ~+26% upside.
• Bernstein: $225 (Outperform). ~+21% upside.
• Citi: $210 (Buy) — reiterates annual cadence & rising AI capex.
• Morgan Stanley: $206–210 (Overweight). ~+11–13% upside; 33× CY25 EPS framework.
• Consensus: Avg 12-mo PT ~$211, ~+13% from here.
________________________________________
________________________________________
Extra color you can trade on 🎯
• Where bulls may be too conservative:
o Networking/NVLink attach could outgrow GPUs as Blackwell/Rubin systems standardize on NVIDIA fabric, defending blended margins longer.
o Software monetization (CUDA ecosystem, NIMs, enterprise inference toolchains) is still under-modeled in many sell-side DCFs.
• Where bulls may be too aggressive:
o China rebound timing & magnitude.
o Power/real-estate constraints delaying deployments into 2026.
o Credit-driven AI capex — watch for any signs of tightening in private credit / neocloud financing that uses GPUs as collateral.
________________________________________
________________________________________
Sources: NVIDIA IR & 10-Q; Yahoo Finance stats; StockAnalysis (TTM financials); company Q2 FY26 press release and CFO commentary; recent analyst notes from KeyBanc, Citi, Barclays, BofA, Morgan Stanley; financial media coverage (WSJ/FT).
ORCL
Oracle (ORCL) Stock Price Pulls Back After Historic SurgeOracle (ORCL) Stock Price Pulls Back After Historic Surge
On 10 September 2025, ORCL shares soared by 36% in a single trading session:
→ the price reached an all-time high above $340;
→ Oracle’s co-founder and chairman, Larry Ellison, briefly became the world’s richest individual.
Why Did ORCL Shares Surge?
The rally was triggered by announcements of several multibillion-dollar deals in cloud infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Oracle revealed contracts worth a total of $300 billion, with clients including OpenAI, Nvidia, SoftBank, Meta, and Elon Musk’s xAI.
According to media reports:
→ CEO Safra Catz stated that the company’s Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) could soon exceed $500 billion;
→ analysts and investors began drawing comparisons between Oracle and Nvidia, positioning Oracle as a key player in the AI ecosystem by providing essential cloud infrastructure.
However, by the end of the week, ORCL shares had retreated by roughly 15% from their peak.
Technical Analysis of ORCL
After such a steep rally, many holders likely took profits, contributing to the pullback. In addition, strong overbought signals emerged following last week’s bullish gap, indicated by:
→ the RSI indicator;
→ a price breakout above the upper boundary of the long-term channel (shown in blue);
→ the advance beyond the psychological $300 level.
Although Oracle’s long-term outlook remains highly promising, the company still holds a smaller share of the cloud services market compared with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.
At present, we could assume that the market has entered a corrective phase, with ORCL potentially retracing to the $270–280 area, where a cluster of support levels is located:
→ the median line of the medium-term (orange) channel;
→ the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the A→B impulse;
→ the upper boundary of the blue channel, which may switch its role to act as support.
Additional support could be found at $260 and at the lower edge of the gap near $240 if the correction deepens. Overall, however, given the long-term impact of the recently secured contracts, Oracle’s prospects in cloud computing and AI remain robust.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
ORCL Weekly Bullish Scalp – $320 CALL, 50% Target!
🚀 **ORCL Weekly Play | 2025-09-11** 🚀
**Directional Bias:** STRONG BULLISH ✅
**Reason:** Multi‑timeframe momentum (Daily RSI 77 / Weekly RSI 83.5) + 4.1x institutional volume 📊
⚠️ Note: Weekly options flow bearish (call/put 0.77) → likely hedging, **don’t overthink it**.
**💡 Trade Recommendation:**
* **Instrument:** ORCL weekly call
* **Strike:** 320.00 💰
* **Expiry:** 2025-09-12
* **Entry Price (ask):** \$3.10
* **Direction:** LONG ✅
* **Position Size:** 1 contract (scale to 2% account risk max)
**🎯 Targets & Stops:**
* **Profit Target:** \$4.65 (+50%)
* **Stop Loss:** \$1.55 (-50%)
* **Entry Timing:** Market open 🕒
* **Exit:** Prefer by 2–3 PM ET to avoid gamma/pin risk
**⚡ Why This Strike:**
* Higher delta (\~0.35–0.45) → better chance to move ITM in 1 day
* Liquid OI (1,695) → smoother execution
* Premium allows **controlled position sizing**
**Alternative Options:**
* \$322.50 call (ask \$2.41) → more conservative, slightly lower delta
* \$335 call (ask \$0.62) → high-leverage “lottery” ticket, tiny size only
**📈 Key Risks:**
* HIGH gamma / accelerating theta ⚡
* Options flow put dominance → possible short interest
* Intraday news shocks can wipe out premium
**Confidence Level:** 70% ✅
**📊 JSON Trade Snapshot:**
```json
{
"instrument": "ORCL",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 320.0,
"expiry": "2025-09-12",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 4.65,
"stop_loss": 1.55,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 3.10,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-09-11 10:16:53 UTC-04:00"
}
```
💥 **TL;DR:** ORCL is firing on all cylinders. Strong bullish momentum + heavy volume → tactical 1-day call for high-gamma intraday play. Tight stops, small size, exit early.
ORCL 1H Short Investment Put PurchaseConservative CounterTrend Trade
+ short impulse
+ SOS level
+ resistance level
+ below volume level
Daily CounterTrend
"- long impulse
+ exhaustion volume
- SOS level"
Monthly CounterTrend
"- long impulse
+ resistance zone
+ volumed interaction bar"
Yearly CounterTrend
"- long impulse
- neutral zone
+ impulse potential reached"
Oracle Corporation | ORCL & Ai If there is one person that you can compare it with Tony Stark aka IRON MAN is Larry Ellison
the ruthless entrepreneur who is born to win and be the number 1. Since the close of trading Friday, Ellison’s net worth has pumped 8 billion dollar to reach $ 206 billion
Oracle’s stock has reached new highs following its earnings report last week, which exceeded expectations and raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026.
Orcl have risen 20% this month and If this upward trend holds, it would mark their best performance since October 2022, when the stock jumped 28%, and the second best month since October 2002, nearly two decades ago.
The company’s stock success is partly driven by its involvement in the booming artificial intelligence sector. Ellison, Oracle’s founder since 1977, mentioned in last week’s earnings call that the company is building data centers to meet the growing demand for generative AI.
“We are literally building the smallest, most portable, most affordable cloud data centers all the way up to 200 megawatt data centers, ideal for training very large language models and keeping them up to date,” Larry said during the call
also he recently mentioned that Elon Musk and I ‘begged’ Jensen Huang for GPUs over dinner!We need you to take more of our money please!! It went ok. I mean, it worked!
Oracle also announced last week a partnership with Amazon’s cloud computing division to run its database services on dedicated hardware. Over the past year, it has formed similar alliances with Microsoft and Google, two other major cloud infrastructure providers
Oracle's cloud services are a key driver of their success, with revenue from this division growing 21% year over year, reaching $5.6 billion in quarterly earnings
Oracle is becoming a crucial provider, acting like a foundational layer for AI-focused companies. Their database systems are now critical to supporting businesses like OpenAI, AWS, and Google Cloud in building the infrastructure for future AI advancements. Despite AWS and Google Cloud being direct competitors, Oracle’s software remains essential to AI’s future.
Oracle's technology plays a foundational role, much like GPUs have in AI development. As companies seek efficient cloud-database solutions for AI workloads, Oracle is well-positioned to fulfill this demand.
Considering their strong Q1 performance and the central role of their database software in this field, I now view Oracle as a strong buy. The company's AI-powered cloud solutions, strategic partnerships, and growing database market make their technology indispensable for the future of AI
Oracle’s fiscal Q1 for FY 2025 exceeded expectations, with non GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.39, surpassing estimates by $0.06, and revenue hitting $13.3 billion, outperforming projections by $60 million. The cloud segment, which includes their AI database software, remains a significant growth driver, generating $5.6 billion in revenue.
Most of Oracle’s revenue came from the Americas, contributing $8.3 billion, a 6.9% year-over-year increase. The AI revolution, gaining momentum in the US, aligns with their strong revenue growth in this region.
During the Q1 earnings call, management emphasized their expanded partnerships with major tech companies like Google Cloud (Alphabet Inc) and AWS (Amazon), which are notable given that they are also competitors. Oracle highlighted its success in the AI training space, pointing to the construction of large data centers equipped with ultra-high-performance RDMA networks and 32,000-node NVIDIA GPU clusters.
In the EMEA region, crucial to Oracle’s growth due to rising demand for cloud infrastructure and AI solutions among European enterprises and governments (sovereign AI), the company reported $3.3 billion in revenue.
Oracle’s earnings per share aka EPS is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.5% for FY 2025, increasing to 14.41% in FY 2026, and continuing to compound at a modest double-digit rate in the coming years.
While these projections show strong potential for Oracle to be a compounder, I believe they may be somewhat conservative. The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped 53% year-over-year to $99 billion by the end of the first fiscal quarter, indicating that their pipeline of signed work is growing faster than revenue. Once Oracle scales its solutions and workforce to match this RPO growth, we could see both revenue and EPS accelerate further.
In fact, while Oracle’s forward revenue growth is projected at just 8.86% for the next 12 months, their backlog is growing by over 50%. This suggests a notable gap between revenue expectations and actual demand.
I believe the current revenue growth projections are too low, and once revised upward, they could become a key growth catalyst for the company.
As for Oracle’s valuation, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 24.74, which is just 6.76% above the sector median of 23.17. However, given Oracle’s growth potential, I think it warrants a P/E ratio closer to 30.12, which is roughly 30% above the sector median. This would imply an additional 21.75% upside for the stock, excluding dividends.
With a forward P/E ratio only slightly above the sector median, despite Oracle’s impressive growth, the company’s performance suggests the stock should be trading at a higher valuation.
Larry Ellison is the man that I always can trust his vision and always bullish on his spirit and his ambitious. Oracle expanding influence in AI, coupled with robust revenue growth, positions the stock for significant upside. AI is like a modern day Gold Rush, and Oracle, much like GPU makers, is providing the essential tools the "pickaxe" for AI companies so That’s a space I’m eager to invest in
the chart looks insane and if there will be pullback I consider it as a buy opportunity
ORCL Earnings Put Play $205 Puts – Are You In?
# 🔥 ORCL Earnings Play – Bearish Tail Hedge 🚨
**📊 Setup:** Oracle (ORCL) – Earnings 09/09 AMC
**🎯 Direction:** PUT (Short Bias)
**💵 Entry:** \$0.93 (205 Put)
**🛑 Stop:** \$0.47 (−50%)
**🎯 Target:** \$2.79 (+300%)
**📅 Expiry:** 2025-09-12
**📈 Confidence:** 66%
---
### ⚡ Why this trade?
* 📉 Weak technicals → price < 20d & 50d MAs, RSI \~42
* 🏦 Institutional flow → heavy OI/volume at \$205 puts
* 💣 Leverage risk (Debt/Equity > 500%)
* 🎯 Cheap asymmetric bet → defined premium risk vs. big payoff
---
### ⚠️ Risks to watch
* ❌ Small move + IV crush = full premium loss
* 🚀 Big beat → upside squeeze
* 📰 Macro (Fed/inflation data) could override stock move
---
### ✅ Trade Plan
* Enter: **Pre-earnings close (09/09 AMC)**
* Position size: ≤2% portfolio
* Profit scale: +100% / +200% / +300%
* Exit rule: If stop hit OR 2 hrs after open post-earnings
---
🔥 **ORCL = High-quality biz but high expectations. This setup = cheap downside hedge with asymmetric payoff.*
ORCL Weekly Call Setup — $240C Targeting Breakout!
# 🚀 ORCL Weekly Trade Setup (Sep 6, 2025) 🚀
### 🔎 Market Consensus
* **Momentum:** Weekly RSI strong (67.8 ↑), daily RSI improving (47.4).
* **Volume:** 1.5x weekly → institutional activity.
* **Options Flow:** C/P = **1.49** → bullish bias.
* **Volatility:** Low VIX (\~15) → cheap calls.
* **Consensus:** 📈 Moderate Bullish Weekly Bias
---
### 🎯 Trade Plan
* **Instrument:** ORCL
* **Direction:** CALL (LONG)
* **Strike:** 240C
* **Expiry:** 2025-09-12 (6 DTE)
* **Entry Price:** 8.30
* **Profit Target:** 10.40 (+25%) — stretch 12.30–16.40 if momentum holds
* **Stop Loss:** 4.95 (\~-40%)
* **Size:** 1 contract (scale by risk)
* **Entry Timing:** Market Open
* **Exit Rule:** Take profits in strength, exit **by Thu Sep 11** (avoid Friday decay/earnings risk)
* **Confidence:** 🔥 68%
---
### ⚖️ Key Risks
* Earnings risk inside 6-day window → binary volatility.
* High weekly volume could mean **distribution** if no follow-through.
* Theta/gamma crush into late week.
---
### 🧠 Alternative View
* Grok/xAI flags “No Trade” due to binary earnings event risk.
* Conservative traders may stay flat.
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS (JSON)**
```json
{
"instrument": "ORCL",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 240.0,
"expiry": "2025-09-12",
"confidence": 0.68,
"profit_target": 10.40,
"stop_loss": 4.95,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.30,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-09-06 12:07:08 EDT"
}
```
---
🔥 \ NYSE:ORCL | \ AMEX:SPY | \ NASDAQ:QQQ | #OptionsTrading #TradingView #UnusualWhales #SP500 #StocksToWatch #UnusualWhales#GammaSqueeze#OptionsFlow#FlowTrading#WeeklyOptions#CallOptions#StockMarket#TradingView #Bullish#SP500Inclusion#StocksToWatch#MarketMoves#EarningsSeason#MomentumTrading#RiskReward
Portfolio Update Aug 20 2025I sold all ORCL stocks yesterday as I see the market topped. Big tech companies are retracing now, so this might be the peak for now.
We have Jackson Hole symposium in the upcoming days which may lead to policy changes. We also waiting to see tariff effect in the 3rd quarter earnings. Plus Ukraine war updates.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
XLK Relative Strength – Leaders Extended, Rotation Risk BuildingXLK has been one of, if not the strongest sectors on a relative basis since bottoming at the end of March. Despite its relative strength, top SXLK holdings are into areas where profit-taking looks to be occurring, and a rotation out may be taking place (see Weekly Supply zone on RS chart 0.4157-0.4199).
This comes as NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AVGO , and NASDAQ:INTU are into -0.236 fib. extensions. NYSE:ORCL and NASDAQ:PLTR show a similar picture, with NYSE:ORCL reaching the 1.618 extension, while NASDAQ:PLTR failed to reach its 1.618 extension at $162.05.
Weak:
$APPL, NYSE:CRM , NYSE:IBM , and NYSE:NOW are among the weakest performers. If $APPL doesn’t hold around $200.00, look for it to slump to the $170.00 area.
Trades:
Look for NASDAQ:AMAT to hold around $169.46 for a move to $205.06 (Weekly Supply) or $243.40 (Monthly supply). If NASDAQ:AMAT fails to hold the $169.46 print, expect a move to $156.75.
Look for NASDAQ:QCOM to hold $145.20 (Weekly) for a move to the $172.23 area (Weekly Supply).
Look for NASDAQ:ADBE to hold $329.30 for a move to $449.40 (could top out around $417.30 depending on buying volume).
Look for NYSE:ACN to hold $250.00 (Weekly), or I like it better a $218.32 (Monthly Demand).
Featured Chart:
Look for NYSE:APH to hold $100.71 (Daily close on 07/23) for a move up to $116.00-$116.50 area. If NYSE:APH fails to hold around the $100.00 mark, I’d expect a move below $95.00.
AMEX:XLK move down to $240.38?
Let me know your thoughts for or against any of these names in the comments.
XETR:AMEX :
ORACLE Can you foresee it at $2000??Oracle (ORCL) is having perhaps the most dominant recovery from Trump's Tariff lows out of the high cap stocks, trading comfortable on new All Time Highs.
This is no surprise to us, as like we've mentioned countless times on our channel, we are currently at the start of the A.I. Bubble and heavy tech giants are expected to see massive gains until 2032, where we've calculated the end of this Bull Cycle and the start of a strong Bear.
As mentioned, this situation is extremely similar to the Dotcom Bubble of the 1990s. Of course Oracle is nearly impossible to repeat the +38637% gains of that Golden Decade after the 1990 Oil Crisis but in Fibonacci price and time terms, it can technically complete a +3411% rise and hit $2000 in the next 7 years.
If you have a long-term investor mindset like us, this is a must stock to buy and hold.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ORCL A POTENTIAL PIGGYStock Overview: Looks like Oracle Corporation is on the chart! We’re seeing a wild ride with some key patterns popping up.
Recent Trend: The stock’s been climbing steadily, but that shaded triangle (a descending wedge?) suggests a potential reversal or breakout. Keep an eye on it!
Resistance Level: That red line around 130-140 looks like a tough ceiling. Price has bounced off it a few times—might struggle to break through without strong momentum.
Support Zone: The green line sloping down shows a support trend. If it dips below, watch for a bounce around 100-110.
Indicators: Those lower charts (RSI and TRENDS) are wiggling a lot. RSI might be hinting at overbought conditions lately, so a pullback could be due.
Volume Check: Hard to tell without clear volume bars, but if volume spikes with a breakout above resistance, that’s a bullish sign!
My Take: This could go either way—breakout to new highs or a slide back to support. I’d wait for a clear move past 140 with volume to jump in, or a dip to 110 for a safer entry.
Next Steps: Let’s watch how it behaves this week (June 16, 2025). Want me to edit the chart or dig deeper? Just ask!
Careful, very few top side numbers left with lots of downside targets showing.
Price targets and trends marked on chart.
Follow for more charts like this.
Oracle (ORCL) shares surge 24% in a week, hitting all-time highOracle (ORCL) shares surge 24% in a week, hitting an all-time high
Last week, Oracle (ORCL) shares:
→ rose by approximately 24% — marking the strongest weekly gain since 2001;
→ broke through the psychological level of $200 per share;
→ reached an all-time high, with Friday’s session closing above $215. It is possible that a new record may be set this week.
What’s driving Oracle (ORCL) shares higher?
The main catalyst was the quarterly earnings report released last week:
→ Earnings per share ($1.70) exceeded analysts’ expectations ($1.64);
→ CEO Safra Catz projected revenue growth of 12–14% in upcoming quarters;
→ Company founder Larry Ellison highlighted “astronomical” demand for data centres, as well as Oracle’s competitive edge in building and servicing them.
Notably, Oracle provides infrastructure services for both OpenAI and Meta Platforms.
Technical analysis of ORCL shares
ORCL shares have shown high volatility throughout 2025, largely influenced by news surrounding Donald Trump. His promises to strengthen the US position in AI served as a bullish signal, while plans to impose international trade tariffs had a bearish impact.
As a result, a broad upward channel has formed on the chart, with the following key observations:
→ the price has repeatedly bounced sharply from the lower boundary (1), indicating strong demand;
→ by early June, the price had risen and stabilised near the channel’s median line (2).
Currently, the ORCL chart shows that the earnings-driven rally has pushed the price into the upper quartile (3) of the channel.
With the RSI indicator at extreme highs, it is reasonable to assume that ORCL may be vulnerable to a pullback. However, if a correction does occur, it is unlikely to be deep — perhaps testing the psychological $200 level — given the company’s strong fundamentals.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
An Internet Disaster - NET & GOOGL FallAs of Thursday, June 12, 2025, a significant internet outage has disrupted services across multiple major platforms, including Google, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Spotify, YouTube, Discord, and Shopify. Cloudflare acknowledged experiencing intermittent failures and noted that some services were beginning to recover, though users may continue to encounter errors as systems stabilize.
The root cause of the disruption has been identified as an issue with Google Cloud's Identity and Access Management (IAM) service, which affected various services globally. While Cloudflare's core services were not directly impacted, some of its services relying on Google Cloud experienced issues.
Imagine how far Net could've fallen if IGV / Cloud stocks weren't strong today.
ORCL Earnings Play – Riding AI Momentum (2025-06-11)📈 ORCL Earnings Play – Riding AI Momentum (2025-06-11)
Ticker: NYSE:ORCL (Oracle Corp)
Event: Earnings Report — 📆 June 11, After Market Close (AMC)
Bias: ✅ Moderately Bullish | Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Call Option | Expiry: June 13, 2025
🔍 Market Snapshot
📍 Price: Trading near recent highs
📈 RSI (Daily): 87.66 — Extremely overbought
📊 IV Rank: 0.75 → Implied volatility is high
📦 Options Market: Bullish skew; max pain at $170 suggests risk, but not dominant
🧠 Narrative Drivers: AI/cloud strength, institutional accumulation, strong uptrend
🧠 AI Model Consensus Summary
✅ Bullish (3/4 Models):
• Grok/xAI, Llama/Meta, Gemini/Google → all recommend a long call
• Favor upside potential due to strong trend + favorable sentiment
• Strike debate: $195 vs. $200 → $200 favored for cost/leverage
⚠️ Bearish (1/4 Models – DeepSeek):
• Flags overbought RSI + $170 max pain
• Recommends buying puts (contrarian sell-the-news play)
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: CALL
📍 Strike: $200
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
💵 Entry Price: $0.86
🎯 Profit Target: $1.00 (+16%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.25 (–71%)
📈 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Before earnings close
📏 Size: 1 contract (limit to ~1% of capital)
⚠️ Risk Factors
• ❗ Binary Event: IV crush or weak results can kill premium
• 🧊 RSI > 87 → potential for short-term correction
• 🔁 If no move materializes, you may lose full premium
📣 Will NYSE:ORCL deliver an AI-fueled beat or flop on IV crush?
💬 Share your take ⬇ | Follow for daily earnings plays and AI-backed trade alerts.
ORACLE: On a 3 year bottom. Buy opportunity for 240 long termOracle is bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 35.862, MACD = -4.360, ADX = 42.565) as this week it reached almost the same levels of correction as the 2022 Bear Market (-42.72%). This is also nearly a HL bottom for the 3 year Channel Up and as the 1W MA200 is right below, a great long term buy opportunity. The bullish wave after the 2022 bottom almost reached the 1.382 Fibonacci, so we have a technical level to target this time also (TP = 240).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Oracle: Tilting Downward…After a sharp rebound from the $152.02 support following the steep drop from the peak of the beige wave II, Oracle is once again tilting downward as expected. The next step should see the price fall below $152.02 to reach the projected low of the beige wave III. After a countermovement of wave IV, the broader downward movement as part of the beige five-wave decline should extend further, ultimately driving the stock to the low of the overarching blue wave (A). If Oracle instead breaks above the $198.31 resistance in the short term, the macro-level light green wave alt. will rise to a new high. However, this alternative scenario holds only a 34% probability. Primarily, we assume that wave was completed with the December peak.
What Lies Beyond Stargate's Gates?In a bold move that redefines the intersection of technology and national policy, President Donald Trump has unveiled "Stargate," a colossal project aimed at advancing the United States' capabilities in artificial intelligence. This initiative, backed by tech titans Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank, is not merely an investment in infrastructure but a strategic leap towards securing America's future in the global AI race. With commitments reaching up to $500 billion, Stargate is set to transform not only how AI is developed but also how it integrates into the fabric of American society and economy.
The project's immediate impact is palpable; it involves constructing state-of-the-art data centers in Texas, with plans to scale significantly across the nation. This undertaking promises to generate around 100,000 jobs, showcasing the potential of AI to be a major economic driver. Beyond the economic implications, Stargate aims at a broader horizon — fostering innovations in fields like medical research, where AI could revolutionize treatments for diseases like cancer. The involvement of key players like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Arm underscores a unified push towards not just business efficiency but also societal benefits, challenging us to envision a future where technology and humanity advance hand in hand.
However, the vision of Stargate also brings to mind the complexities of global tech dependencies, especially concerning AI chip manufacturing, which largely relies on foreign production. This initiative invites a deeper contemplation on how national security, economic growth, and technological advancement can be balanced in an era where AI's influence is ubiquitous. As we stand on the brink of this new chapter, Stargate challenges us to think critically about the future we are building — one where AI not only serves our immediate needs but also shapes our long-term destiny.
Oracle Stock (ORCL) Surges Amid Trump’s InitiativeOracle Stock (ORCL) Surges Amid Trump’s Initiative
Stargate – an initiative unveiled by Donald Trump on his second day as president – represents a collaborative project between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle to advance artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States. The project’s partners also include Microsoft, MGX, Arm, and NVIDIA.
The initiative involves an initial $100 billion investment to construct a data centre in Texas, with total funding potentially increasing to $500 billion over four years. Additionally, President Trump has revoked an executive order from his predecessor, Joe Biden, issued in 2023, which aimed to mitigate risks associated with AI development.
Financial markets responded with a rally in tech stocks, with Oracle’s stock (ORCL) gaining over 7% in a single day.
Technical analysis of the ORCL chart shows:
→ Price fluctuations are forming an ascending channel, and yesterday’s rally lifted the price from the lower half of the channel to its median line.
→ The price is approaching a bearish gap created on December 10 following disappointing quarterly results. This gap may act as resistance – similar to the inverse situation earlier in 2025, where the price found support at the upper boundary of a bullish gap formed after the September earnings report.
However, with support from the new administration, bulls might manage to sustain levels above $180, paving the way for a potential climb to a new all-time high around the psychological mark of $200 per ORCL share.
According to TipRanks:
→ 15 out of 27 analysts recommend buying ORCL stock.
→ The average 12-month price target for ORCL is $197.
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ORACLE Slowly turning into a long-term Buy again.Oracle (ORCL) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last call (September 18 2024, see chart below):
For the past 30 days it has been on a technical decline, which based on its +2 year pattern, is nothing but the Bearish Leg of the Channel Up. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Support of this trend but the September - October 2023 Bearish Leg bottomed a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result we expect the stock to turn into a buy by the end of the month or if the 1W RSI hits its 42.70 Support first and initiate the new Bullish Leg, which at first shouldn't be that aggressive.
Our Target is a little below the -0.236 Fib extension at $220.00.
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Oracle: Correction Started!Although ORCL is currently still trading above the $147.50 support level, we believe the green wave has reached its peak. This implies that the overall upward trend has concluded, and we anticipate a significant correction moving forward. This correction should unfold in five parts, with the beige wave I extending well below the $147.50 level. Afterward, we foresee a corrective counter-movement back above $147.50 during wave II before the price resumes its downward trajectory.