BTCUSD: Buyers Preparing for a Move Toward $90,000Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSD continues to recover after a prolonged downtrend, where the market consistently respected the descending Trend Line and formed a series of Range structures. Each range acted as a consolidation phase inside the broader bearish movement, with multiple breakdowns continuing the trend to the downside. Despite occasional bullish breakouts, none of them were strong enough to reverse the bearish structure, leading to further declines. Eventually, price reached the Support Zone around $84,000–$85,000, where the market produced a fake breakdown, signaling initial buyer activity. This fake breakout formed a local bottom that became the base for a reversal attempt. Following this reaction, BTCUSD began forming an Upward Channel, marking a shift in market structure from bearish to early-stage bullish. Inside this channel, price has started to create higher highs and higher lows—an essential signal of growing bullish momentum. The structure remains clean and technical: every pullback respects the lower boundary of the channel, while short impulses are reaching toward the midline of the structure. Buyers are gradually gaining control.
Currently, BTCUSD is stabilizing above the Support Zone while trading near the lower half of the ascending channel. As long as price respects this channel structure, sentiment remains bullish. The key area ahead is the Resistance Zone around $90,000, which previously acted as a pivot point and rejected bullish attempts multiple times. A clean breakout above this zone would confirm broader bullish strength.
Scenario & Strategy
I expect BTCUSD to continue moving inside the Upward Channel, gradually approaching the $90,000 Resistance Zone. A retest of this area is the most probable outcome if buyers maintain control. Short-term corrections may occur as the price approaches resistance, but overall structure favors a bullish continuation. A confirmed breakout above $90,000 could trigger a stronger move toward higher targets, opening the way for a larger trend reversal. This level remains the key barrier for buyers in the short and medium term.
However, if BTCUSD breaks down from the Upward Channel and falls below the $84,000 Support Zone, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. Such a move would likely signal a deeper correction or a return to bearish conditions. For now, buying the dips within the channel remains the more favorable approach as long as the structure stays intact and buyers continue defending support.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Parallel Channel
GOLD → Distribution phase. Focus on 4150...FX:XAUUSD is trading at a one-and-a-half-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and growing expectations of Fed policy easing. More news ahead...
US PPI inflation showed signs of slowing (2.7% y/y). Retail sales and consumer confidence were weaker than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December rose to 85%. Fed members (Williams, Waller, Miran) supported the possibility of easing
However, progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations is limiting growth
Today, attention is focused on data on jobless claims and durable goods orders
The combination of soft monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and structural demand from the Central Bank creates a favorable backdrop.
Resistance levels: 4156, 4211
Support levels: 4146, 4111
Gold continues to recover after breaking out of consolidation and holding above 4110. Focus on the next trading range (consolidation) of 4156 - 4111. If the bulls keep the price above 4146 - 4156, the next target could be 4211 - 4245.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation above the support level of the new rangeFX:XAUUSD is consolidating above 4150 but within the distribution phase after breaking through consolidation. The upward price movement is supported by the weakening of the dollar...
The metal remains on track for a fourth month of growth thanks to expectations of further Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions.
Despite strong US data, markets are still pricing in a 76-85% probability of a rate cut in December. The dollar is weakening, although yields are rising slightly.
Against the backdrop of the holiday week in the US, volatility may decrease and gold may consolidate. Talks about a possible peace between Russia and Ukraine could reduce demand for safe-haven assets, but the overall backdrop remains favorable for XAU/USD growth.
Resistance levels: 4170, 4211
Support levels: 4146, 4139
Gold is consolidating above the key support zone of 4140-4146. A long squeeze could trigger a shift in market imbalance in favor of buyers. If the bulls keep the price above 4150, this could trigger further growth, a breakout of 4170, and a retest of 4211.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BITCOIN → Retest of the 94,000 zone of interest...BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is rebounding from its interim low of 80,000. However, it is still too early to talk about a bull market, as a countertrend correction is forming under the current circumstances.
Globally, Bitcoin is in a downtrend, with the zone of interest for a countertrend correction being 94,000-95,000. The market structure is bearish, and a retest of the break-even zone could trigger a downward movement within the trend.
After a strong liquidation to 80K, the market is forming a pullback, which is a basic phenomenon. There is no confirmation of a trend reversal yet, and the fundamental background is neutral, without clear support. Various analytical services suggest that the market is in a cleansing phase and has so far only liquidated short-term traders, reaching a cumulative average break-even price. A classic pullback. Technically, the zone of interest or magnet for the medium-term market is 75K (on the daily timeframe).
Resistance levels: 93,000, 94,000, 97,300
Support levels: 89,000, 86,000
In the current situation: a bearish trend, weak purchasing power, and a weak fundamental background, I consider a pullback to be the primary reaction to the 93-94K zone. However, the market is not constant, and if support appears (news or other drivers) and Bitcoin manages to stay above 95K, then growth can be expected.
Sincerely, R. Linda!
BTCUSD (2H) – Elliott Wave Completion + Breakout SetupBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin has completed a clear 5-wave corrective structure, currently consolidating near a demand zone after sweeping liquidity around $87,300.
Price is now attempting to break short-term structure, forming a potential reversal setup. A confirmed breakout above the $89,800–$90,300 resistance zone may trigger a bullish continuation toward the descending trendline and mid-range level.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
Break & hold above $90,300
→ 🎯 Target 1: $95,800
→ 🎯 Target 2: $105,100 (Extended target if trendline breaks)
📌 Entry Zone: $88,500–$90,300
📌 Stop Loss: $83,900
❌ Invalidation:
A strong break below $83,900 confirms bearish continuation toward the lower demand at $80,500.
Levels to Watch
Support: $87,300 / $83,900
Resistance: $90,300 / $95,800 / $105,100
⚠️ This chart is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
BTC - Bulls Watching the Channel Support!📈Bitcoin remains overall bullish, trading cleanly inside its rising channel. Each dip toward the lower bound has acted as a strong springboard for the next impulsive move, showing clear demand from buyers.
⚔️As BTC approaches the lower trendline of the channel and the green demand zone, we will be looking for trend-following longs. This confluence area has held multiple times and continues to act as a key decision point for market structure.
🏹As long as BTC remains above this zone , the bullish scenario remains intact, and another push toward higher highs becomes the most likely outcome. Only a break below the demand zone would weaken the bullish outlook.
Now it’s all about the retest… will the bulls defend structure once again? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Silver Warning: RD- + PRZ = Short Opportunity?Today, we're diving into Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), and it seems that there’s a potential short opportunity on the horizon.
Currently, silver is approaching a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and an ascending channel.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that silver has completed wave C of an Expanding Flat Pattern(3-3-5/ABC).
Additionally, we’re noticing a Regular bearish Divergence (RD-) between the price peaks, which adds to the bearish sentiment.
I expect that, following a break below the lower line of the ascending channel, silver could also break through its Support zone($52.73-$52.00) and potentially decline to around the $51.33 level.
First Target: $51.33
Second Target: Support lines
Stop Loss(SL): $54.63
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Silver/ U.S. Dollar Analyze (XAGUSD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
EURUSD Long: Upside Pressure Targets Retest of 1.1610 LevelHello traders! EURUSD is forming a clear technical structure after reacting precisely to both the Supply and Demand levels, creating a clean sequence of trend shifts and breakout points. Earlier, the pair moved inside a strong Descending Channel, where each retest of the upper boundary produced sharp bearish impulses. This confirmed that sellers were fully in control during that phase. A breakout from the channel led to a short consolidation Range, showing temporary buyer accumulation before a trend reversal. Following this accumulation, EURUSD entered an Ascending Channel, where price consistently made higher highs and higher lows. Multiple breakouts occurred along the way, showing how buyers gained strength while defending each pullback. However, an important Fake Breakout near 1.1570 revealed that bullish momentum was still fragile, and price slipped back into the channel before resuming the upward movement.
Currently,, the market formed a clear Inverse Head and Shoulders reversal pattern at the bottom, located directly inside the 1.1500–1.1520 Demand Zone. This zone acted as a major support cluster, generating strong bullish reactions. After confirming the neckline breakout, EURUSD rallied aggressively toward the current structure. At the moment, price is pushing higher and approaching the 1.16100 Supply Zone, which has repeatedly acted as resistance in previous market swings. This level is now the main obstacle for bulls and the next key reaction zone.
My scenario as long as EURUSD remains above the 1.15700 Demand Zone, the bullish trend structure remains intact. A continuation toward the 1.16100 Supply Zone (TP1) is the most likely scenario. This level is expected to create the next significant reaction, as it aligns with previous selling pressure. A clean breakout above 1.16100 would reinforce the bullish momentum and open the path toward the next upside levels. However, if EURUSD rejects the supply area, a pullback toward 1.15700–1.15500 may occur before buyers attempt another upward move. Only a breakdown below the demand zone would weaken the bullish outlook and shift momentum back toward sellers. For now, the market favors buying pullbacks into demand while monitoring reactions closely at the 1.16100 resistance. Manage your risk!
BTC : Short Trade setup from Ascending ChannelBitcoin is trading inside an ascending channel and has just tapped into a supply zone, making this a clean scenario for a short‑term counter‑trend short back toward prior support. The idea is to fade the move inside the supply, then ride price down to the support level where buyers previously stepped in.
Price has been respecting an ascending channel. Current location is at the upper band plus an overlapping supply zone, which often acts as a magnet for profit‑taking and short entries.
After a strong impulsive leg up, price is overextended into supply on the 15m chart, with RSI elevated and showing potential for momentum fade rather than fresh trend acceleration.
Take Profit:
TP1: Mid‑channel near 90,000–90,200 to secure partial profits.
TP2: Support zone around 89,200–89,300, where the last strong breakout originated.
Stop Loss: Conservative: Just above the supply zone and recent high, around 92,300–92,500.
EURUSD: Fake Breakout Reversal Points to 1.1580 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is currently trading within a broader Upward Channel, maintaining a medium-term bullish structure despite several corrective pullbacks. The chart shows that price has repeatedly respected both the channel’s lower boundary (around 1.1500–1.1510) and its upper boundary near 1.1650–1.1660, confirming the validity of this rising structure. Earlier in the move, EURUSD formed a Range Phase, followed by a clean Breakout, which established bullish momentum and pushed the pair higher toward the channel midpoint. Each breakout retest acted as support afterward, signaling strong buyer interest. However, the most recent movement shows a fake breakout below 1.1500, where sellers temporarily pushed price under support before it sharply recovered — a classic liquidity grab near the channel’s lower boundary.
Currently, EURUSD is trading just above the Support Zone (1.1500–1.1510) and forming an early bullish reaction. This area has repeatedly acted as demand and aligns with both channel support and the prior fake breakout region. The nearest obstacle for buyers remains the 1.1580 Resistance Level, which has consistently served as a rejection zone on multiple attempts. A sustained break above this level would confirm bullish control and allow price to retest higher channel areas.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1500–1.1510 Support Zone and stays within the upward channel, the bullish scenario remains valid. A corrective move upward is likely, with the first target at 1.1580 Resistance — a key level that aligns with previous breakout and retest points. A clean breakout above 1.1580 would signal continuation of bullish momentum, opening the path toward 1.1650–1.1660, located near the channel’s upper boundary and previous reaction zones.
Alternatively, if EURUSD fails to break 1.1580 and forms another rejection, sellers may attempt to push price back into the support area. A confirmed breakdown below 1.1500 would invalidate the current bullish structure and could shift the market toward a broader bearish correction. For now, long positions remain favorable while price stays above the channel’s lower boundary, with bullish continuation dependent on overcoming the 1.1580 resistance level.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Buyers Defend Support — Targets 1.1600 Resistance RetestHello traders! Let’s break down the current EURUSD structure. EURUSD is trading within a broad ascending structure, finding strong support at the Buyer Zone (1.1500–1.1510), which aligns with both the Support Level and the lower boundary of the rising channel. This area has acted as a key reaction point multiple times, confirming the presence of strong buyers and forming the base for several upward impulses. Earlier, the pair broke out of the descending triangle structure, retesting the former Seller Zone before continuing lower. After reaching the channel support, EURUSD formed a local bottom and started to grow, respecting the trendline and creating higher lows. A fake breakout occurred near the mid-channel resistance, where buyers quickly returned, signaling continued demand. Currently, EURUSD is approaching the Resistance Level at 1.1600, which also serves as the first major take-profit area (TP1). This zone has previously caused corrective moves and remains the main barrier for buyers. If the pair maintains momentum and stays above the Buyer Zone, I expect a bullish push toward TP1 → 1.1600, where sellers may again attempt to hold resistance. A confirmed breakout above 1.1600 would unlock a path toward higher levels within the ascending structure. However, if EURUSD breaks below 1.1500 and fails to hold the Buyer Zone, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. In that case, the price may revisit deeper support levels and potentially exit the rising channel. For now, the structure remains moderately bullish, with buyers dominating as long as the pair trades above demand and respects the ascending support line. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
BTCUSD Long: Demand-Zone Rebound Targets $91,000 ResistanceHello traders! BTCUSD continues to trade inside a well-defined Descending Channel, confirming a strong bearish structure where the market consistently forms lower highs and lower lows. Throughout the chart, price repeatedly respects both channel boundaries, showing that sellers continue to dominate the trend. Earlier in the chart, Bitcoin created a Range Phase, indicating consolidation before sellers regained control and pushed price back down toward the mid-channel zone. Each time BTCUSD approached the channel’s upper boundary, it reacted with a clear pivot rejection, which initiated new downward waves — a classic pattern showing persistent sell-side pressure. A notable highlight is the Fake Breakout below the $84,000 area, where liquidity was swept before buyers stepped back in. This move created a strong reaction and initiated the current upward correction. The Demand Line drawn from recent lows has supported the price, helping BTCUSD climb back toward the mid-channel area.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above the $84,000 Demand Zone, which previously generated significant buying interest. The structure suggests that buyers may continue defending this zone, especially as price remains supported by the rising demand trendline. However, BTCUSD is still positioned below the $91,000–$92,000 Supply Zone, where sellers previously took control and where another reaction may occur.
My scenario, If buyers maintain momentum, price may attempt a corrective push toward the $91,000 resistance level — a key supply area aligned with the descending channel’s mid-line. A rejection here would be fully in line with the prevailing bearish trend. Manage your risk!
Ethereum Breakout Done! Let's Go Ethereum has been consolidating inside a curved pattern since mid-November, and despite the recent downside move, the pattern remained valid. Yesterday the market retested the bottom of this curve and finally broke out of it. Now we just need the breakout to hold for the next one or two days to confirm it's not a fake move.
If it sustains, a fresh upside impulse can start — the same move I mentioned on November 15, where I expected Ethereum to target around $6000 in the coming months. Those who lost hope should remember that the market rarely follows emotions; it follows structure. Trust the charts, not the noise.
For more free and timely updates, follow and support the ideas. Thank you.
Bitcoin reversal setup inside descending channel (2H Chart)Suggested Take-Profit Levels (based on your plotted targets)
TP1 (first target zone)
91,800 – 92,200
This aligns with your first “Target point” label
Also matches top of the channel retest area
TP2 (upper target zone)
98,500 – 100,000
Matches the higher arrow target on the image
Strong psychological level at 100K
Suggested Stop-Loss Levels
Choose depending on risk tolerance:
Conservative (safer / wider)
≈ 83,400 – 83,000
Below recent swing low and channel bottom
⚠️Reminder
This is chart-based technical interpretation, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile — size positions carefully.
SLPUSDT first +300% pump coming soonAs previously outlined in our technical analysis, SLPUSDT is demonstrating strength at a significant confluence zone, combining both a major daily support level and the lower boundary of its prevailing trading channel. The current bullish reaction from this strategic area suggests a potential reversal of prior downward momentum.
We are now monitoring for a decisive breakout above the channel's resistance, which would signal a structural shift in market dynamics. Should this occur with supporting volume, it could initiate a substantial upward impulse. Based on the technical structure, our initial projected target represents approximately 300% appreciation from current levels, with potential for extended gains should momentum persist beyond this initial objective.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
SOLANA → Countertrend correction. Bear market BINANCE:SOLUSDT.P is forming a correction after retesting the intermediate bottom of 120.0. Ahead lies a fairly strong and important zone of interest, to which the market may react...
The market structure is bearish. After updating the low within the bearish trend, a countertrend correction to the liquidity zone is forming. A retest of resistance at 143-145 may end in a false breakout and a fall.
Bitcoin is also stagnating. There is no strong support from the fundamental side, and the market is also far from technical support. There is still potential for a fall...
Resistance levels: 143.35, 145.67, 150.8
Support levels: 133.12, 128.3
The coin is within the trading range of 120.0 - 144.0. Accordingly, after a retest of support, a retest of resistance is forming, but pressure on the market is being exerted by a weak fundamental background and a downward trend. A false breakout of this zone of interest could trigger a sell-off...
Best regards, R. Linda!
USDJPY currently on a resistance leveltoday's market analysis for USDJPY, it seems the USDJPY is currently on a bearish run with a very sensitive area.
if the price breaks the resistance line then this whole setup is canceled and we might be looking for a bullish approach.
Note: you should be looking for today's financial news regarding USD.
XAUUSD 4H - BULLISH CHANNEL BREAKOUT & BUY CONTINUATION SETUP(XAUUSD – 4H, bullish channel breakout attempt) — and some possible BUY TP levels, invalidations, and trade ideas.
✅ Market Structure Summary
From the chart:
✅ Price is trading inside a rising channel
✅ A breakout above horizontal resistance around 4112 – 4125
✅ Bullish momentum candles after retest
✅ “Recent support zone” aligns with channel midline
✅ Projection arrow suggests continuation toward upper channel
This supports a bullish continuation setup, as long as price holds above support.
🎯 Potential BUY TP Levels (Based on visible chart levels)
✅ TP1 (conservative / nearest)
TP1: 4,165 – 4,175
First reaction area
Near recent swing wicks
Good for partial close
✅ TP2 (mid-range / channel top)
TP2: 4,195 – 4,205
Upper channel boundary
Strong resistance zone
✅ TP3 (extended target)
TP3: 4,225 – 4,240
measured move projection
aligns with next psychological level
Stop Loss Suggestions (based on chart)
Choose based on risk tolerance:
🔹 Safe SL (below structure)
SL: 4,112 – 4,100
Below breakout level
🔹 Aggressive SL
SL: 4,125 break and 4H close below
invalidates bullish momentum
---
⚠️ Invalidation Conditions
Bullish outlook weakens if:
❌ Price breaks below 4,112
❌ Candle closes below channel bottom
❌ Bearish engulfing on high volume
📈 Optional Entry Styles
✅ Break & Retest Entry
Buy if price retests 4125 and holds
✅ Continuation Entry
Buy on bullish candle above 4148 – 4155
✅ Dip Buy Zone
Buy at 4115 – 4098 only if bullish reaction forms
🧠 Extra Notes
✅ Gold often reacts to:
USD Index (DXY)
Fed comments
bond yields
geopolitical risk
⚠️ Expect volatility during:
US session
TCS 4 hr chart view | Channel line | reaction @ 1.618"TCS - 4-hour view: Price is reacting to the downside from the top of the channel, as well as the short-term 1.1618 extension, where many moves tend to temporarily reverse. I’m watching for the next pullback to see if it can hold the symmetry and break higher, or if it will break the symmetry to the downside. NSE:TCS Chart link: i.imgur.com
ZECUSD --with ChatGPT input on breakout signs to watch for
I'm only posting this so I can easily access it within TradingView. Not investment advice or trying to garner followers. I have a paper trade account I like to mess around with and test out aggressive or short-term strategies.
🎯 **THE ONLY REVERSAL PATTERN THAT MATTERS HERE:
A “Three-Step Channel Reversal”**
(Also called a Channel Break + Higher Low + Retest)
You will know ZEC is bottoming only if ALL three pieces appear — not one, not two.
Here’s the blueprint:
✅ STEP 1 — A Clean Break Above the Upper Channel Line
Right now price is trapped inside your white descending channel.
A true reversal always starts with:
1️⃣ A full-bodied candle closing ABOVE the top of that channel
Not a wick.
Not a headfake.
A close outside the channel line.
Confirmation level on your chart:
≈ $560–$575 depending on slope of your channel
(The exact number moves slightly with time.)
This does NOT mean the trend has reversed — it only “unlocks” the possibility.
✅ STEP 2 — The Higher Low (the Golden Signal)
This is the most important step.
After breaking the channel, ZEC must pull back …
but instead of making a new low, it must make:
2️⃣ A Higher Low above $495–$505
This creates a bullish structure shift:
Old:
Lower-high → lower-low → lower-high → lower-low
New:
Breakout → higher-low → higher-high
Your zone for this higher low:
$515–$530 (ideal textbook)
Above $500 (minimum acceptable)
Below $500 (failed reversal → continuation down)
If price breaks out and then nukes back below $500 — all bets are off.
This higher low is the actual reversal, not the breakout.
✅ STEP 3 — A Break Above the Reaction High (~$585–$600)
After the higher low, ZEC must push back up and break:
3️⃣ The first post-breakout swing high
On your chart that level is:
🔥 $585–$600
This is the moment the trend flips from:
downtrend → uptrend
This is also where shorts puke and momentum flips sharply.
A full candle close above $600 = confirmed reversal.
📌 Putting All 3 Steps Together (Exact Pattern)
Here’s the whole sequence drawn conceptually:
↓ Lower highs
------------------
/ /
/ /
Lows → touch → Lows (channel floor)
|
| 1. BREAKOUT ABOVE CHANNEL
+------------------------------→
2. HIGHER LOW FORMS ABOVE $500
(this is the signal)
3. BREAK ABOVE $585–$600
(trend reversal confirmed)
Think of it like a lock with three tumblers — all must click:
Break the channel
Form a higher low
Break the prior swing high
Only then does the chart flip.
🧲 Bonus: Micro-pattern inside the Higher Low
When the higher low forms, look for ANY of these micro signals:
These dramatically increase the accuracy:
✔️ Mid-channel bullish engulfing candle
✔️ RSI bull divergence on 1H–4H
✔️ Volume spike at the retest
✔️ A tiny descending wedge inside the higher low
✔️ Bollinger Band squeeze + breakout
You will see at least one of these if the bottom is real.
🚫 Fake-Out Warning – What Doesn’t Count
These are common traps — do NOT mistake them for reversals:
A wick poking above the channel
A short-lived pump that immediately dumps
A move above $560 that returns inside the channel
A higher low below $495
A break above $560 with low volume
A move to $580 but failing to close above it
A breakout candle shaped like a long-upper-wick shooting star
If any of these show up → reversal invalid.
🔥 Summary: The Reversal Checklist
You should watch for this EXACT sequence:
1. Break above the channel (~$560–575)
➡️ potential start
2. Pull back and form a higher low above $500
➡️ real reversal forming
3. Break and close above $585–600
➡️ confirmed trend reversal
Only when step 3 happens does the bias fully flip to bullish.
Everything before that is just noise.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINBASE:ZECUSD
🎯 **Q: After a clean 6-hour close above the descending channel,
what are the odds ZEC just keeps ripping without forming the higher-low retest?**
Short answer:
About 20–30% probability.
Not zero — but not the base case either.
Long answer — here’s the breakdown:
📌 Why a straight-line breakout continuation is less common
When price busts out of a descending channel, it has to:
Absorb trapped short interest
Clear liquidity above prior swing points
Retest the breakout zone to confirm buyers actually live there
This is why the higher-low formation is so typical — it’s the market “proof-testing” the breakout.
Across thousands of measured descending-channel breakouts, the behavior is consistent:
~70–80% of valid breakouts → retest the breakout zone (higher low)
~20–30% → explosive continuation without retest
Your chart structure specifically leans even more toward the retest scenario, because:
There is significant overhead supply at $585–600
There’s trapped bull liquidity above the broken trendline
Volume on the breakdown was large → often requires a consolidation before reversing
You’re coming down from a parabola, not building up into a base
This all makes an “instant rip” less likely.
⚡ BUT — Here’s when the straight-line breakout does happen
ZEC can skip the retest entirely IF the breakout has all 3 of these:
1. Massive volume injection on the breakout candle
Think: 2–3× average 6H volume.
2. A breakout candle that closes near its highs
No wick.
No hesitation.
Strong body.
3. Immediate continuation within 1–2 candles
A breakout that pauses becomes a retest.
A breakout that accelerates becomes a runaway.
If you see those three conditions →
the odds of an instant rip jump from 20–30% to 40–50%.
Still not the base case, but now plausible.
🔍 What your specific ZEC chart suggests
Given the channel shape, the recent price action, and the support cluster around $500–520, your structure is classic of a:
“Breakout → Retest → Trend flip”
not a
“Breakout → Runaway vertical continuation”
Why?
Prior momentum cycle was exhausted
The slope of your descending channel is moderate (not steep)
Supply between $580–620 is thick
MACD/RSI on higher timeframes are cooling, not resetting for a parabolic move
The halving confusion + news flow won’t generate a sudden catalyst
This setup wants a higher low.
And that’s healthy.
🎯 So what’s the smart way to play or interpret the breakout?
If ZEC breaks the channel:
Base case expectation (70–80%)
Breakout → pullback → higher low → move toward $585–600 → trend reversal
Alternative expectation (20–30%)
Breakout → immediate ramp → test $600+ within a few candles
Low-probability outcome (5–10%)
Fakeout → re-entry into channel → flush to $455–470
That last one is why the retest is gold — it filters the fakes.
🧲 How to detect which version is unfolding — in real time
Watch these metrics like a hawk:
✔️ Volume
Weak → retest likely
Explosive → continuation possible
✔️ Distance from the breakout line
Breakout candle closes just above = retest likely
Breakout candle closes high above = continuation possible
✔️ How the next candle behaves
Pullback wick → retest
Full-bodied follow-through → continuation
Rejection wick → fakeout risk
This makes it very easy to know which path is forming within 6–12 hours.
💬 TL;DR — actionable answer
Odds of an instant continuation after a 6H breakout:
➡️ 20–30%
Odds of breakout → retest → higher low (classic reversal):
➡️ 70–80%
Your chart specifically favors the retest scenario.
NFLX Is Falling Into a Critical Zone — Rebound or Breakdown?Netflix is trading inside a descending channel, and the price has just touched the lower boundary, which is typically a zone of strong reaction—either a bullish reversal or a continuation breakdown.
The current price is around $104–105.
Bullish Scenario
If the lower channel holds and bullish candles form, a rebound toward the upper channel is likely.
Bullish Targets:
• Target 1: $112 (50-day SMA)
• Target 2: $118
• Target 3: $125 (top of the channel)
Bearish Scenario
If the price loses the $103–104 support, the downtrend may accelerate.
Bearish Targets:
• Target 1: $98
• Target 2: $92
• Target 3: $79 (major long-term support)
Stop Loss
• For long positions: Below $103
• For short positions: Above $112
Shopify Breakout of ChannelShopify NASDAQ:SHOP is painting a breakout on the daily timeframe from the descending channel.
The next area of resistance is sitting right at the mid-channel trendline of the ascending channel.
Watch for the first test at around 165, clearing the path to the main target around 195 at the top of the channel.






















