EURUSD: Fake Breakdown from Support Signals Potential ReversalHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a clearly defined range, where price moved sideways and showed equilibrium between buyers and sellers. From this range, price attempted a bullish breakout, but the move resulted in a fake breakout into the upper area, signaling strong selling pressure inside the Resistance Zone around 1.1750–1.1760. This zone was tested multiple times, and each attempt to hold above it failed, confirming it as a strong supply area.
Currently, price is trading below the key resistance and remains structurally bearish. The highlighted move suggests a potential corrective pullback from support toward the descending channel resistance, which aligns closely with the horizontal resistance zone around 1.1750.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1680 Support Zone and no strong bearish acceptance occurs below it, the bullish bias is favored in the short term. I expect buyers to push price higher toward the descending channel resistance and horizontal Resistance Zone around 1.1740, which acts as TP1. A clean breakout and acceptance above the 1.1750 Resistance Zone would confirm stronger bullish continuation and open the door for a move toward higher highs.
However, a decisive breakdown and close below the support zone would invalidate the long scenario and signal renewed bearish continuation. For now, the market is at a key reaction area, and the long setup depends on buyers continuing to defend support.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Parallel Channel
EURGBP - When Structure Breaks, Bias FollowsFor a while, EURGBP was respecting a rising blue broadening wedge, keeping the overall momentum bullish. That changed.
📉 Momentum has now shifted from bullish to bearish after price broke below the blue rising structure, signaling a clear loss of upside control.
Since then, price has been trading inside a falling red channel, confirming that sellers are in control for now.
🔍 What matters next:
As long as EURGBP remains below the broken structure and continues to trade within the falling channel.
Any pullback toward the upper bound of the red channel, and the previous structure low marked in red, will be considered a sell zone!
I’ll then be zooming into lower timeframes and looking for trend-following short setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Elite | EURUSD – H1 | Pullback into DemandFX:EURUSD
After rejecting the previous high near 1.1803, price corrected into demand where buying interest has previously entered. Current price action suggests consolidation and liquidity engineering, with continuation dependent on confirmation rather than anticipation.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
– Strong reaction from 1.1660–1.1680
– H1 close above 1.1803 → Bullish BOS confirmed
🎯 Target 1: 1.1850
🎯 Target 2: 1.1900
🎯 Target 3: 1.2000 (HTF liquidity)
❌ Bearish Case 📉
– Failure to hold demand
– Acceptance below 1.1620
🎯 Downside Target: 1.1588
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 1.1803
Support 🟢: 1.1660–1.1680
Invalidation ❌: H1 close below 1.1620
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
BTCUSDT Holding Higher Lows, $94,700 Resistance in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (3H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT initially experienced a strong sell-off, marked by aggressive bearish momentum as price dropped from higher levels. After this decline, the market found a base and started to grow, transitioning into an ascending channel. This phase showed a clear shift in control from sellers to buyers, supported by a rising support line and multiple bullish reactions along the channel. However, as price approached the upper boundary of the channel and the Seller Zone, upside momentum began to slow. During this phase, BTC formed several fake breakouts and failed attempts to hold above resistance, signaling strong selling pressure near the highs. Price then broke back below short-term structure and entered a consolidation phase, forming a clear range. This range reflected temporary balance, with buyers defending the lower boundary while sellers capped the upside. Recently, BTC broke out from the range to the upside and reclaimed the Buyer Zone, confirming renewed bullish intent. Price is now trading above key support around 91,500–92,000 and is respecting the rising support line, indicating that buyers are actively defending pullbacks. The current move is pushing price back toward the Resistance Level and Seller Zone around 94,700, where a test is expected. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the rising support line, the bullish bias remains intact. I expect price to retest the 94,700 Resistance, with TP1 aligned near this level. A clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for higher targets. However, a strong rejection from the Seller Zone followed by a breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a deeper corrective move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GBPUSD | 1H | Channel Pullback BuyPrice is trading within a well-respected ascending channel, maintaining a strong bullish structure.
After the impulsive move up, price pulled back into channel support, showing signs of demand re-entry.
🎯 Buy entry from channel support
🛑 SL: Below channel & pullback low
💰 TP: Channel high / upside liquidity zone
As long as structure holds, trend continuation remains valid.
Trade with precision. 🔵
#GBPUSD #Forex #PriceAction #TrendTrading #TradingView #WinegoTrade
CADJPY: Important Breakout 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY broke and closed below a support line
of a rising parallel channel on a daily time frame.
With a high probability, the price will drop to even
lower structure levels.
The next key support is 112.5
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XAUUSD (8H) — Supply Rejection & Corrective Pullback ScenarioGold remains inside a broader rising channel, but the recent impulse has stalled and price is now trading beneath a short-term descending trendline. This creates a clear corrective context rather than trend continuation.
The 4480.8–4518.2 zone acts as a strong supply / resistance area. As long as price is capped below this zone and below the descending trendline, the higher-probability scenario is a bearish pullback toward lower demand.
This correction can be supported by flow dynamics. Early-January Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing often introduces mechanical selling pressure in commodities that strongly outperformed during the prior year, including gold. Such flows do not change the macro trend but can accelerate corrective moves.
Trade idea:
– Bias: Short below the 4480–4518 supply zone
– Invalidation: 8H close above ~4500.5 (conservative invalidation above 4518)
– Targets:
TP1: 4314.4 – 4335.1 (first demand zone)
TP2: 4195.6 – 4218.4 (deeper demand zone)
If price reaches these demand areas, I will reassess for potential bullish reactions, as the higher-timeframe structure remains constructive. This idea is invalidated if price breaks and holds above supply, especially on strong momentum or risk-off geopolitical news.
EURAUD - Shorts Played, Now Watching the Other SidePreviously, this one was pretty straightforward.☀️
📉As EURAUD approached the upper bound of the falling channel, the bias was clear, we were looking for shorts, and price reacted perfectly from that area.
Fast forward to now, and context has changed.
Price has pushed all the way down into a strong confluence:
• The lower bound of the falling channel
• The previous weekly low (also demand zone)
At the moment, we’re seeing rejection from the lower channel, suggesting selling pressure may be slowing down.
⚔️As long as this area continues to hold, my focus shifts from selling rallies to looking for longs, targeting a rotation back toward higher levels inside the range.
This doesn’t mean blind buying... it means waiting for confirmation on lower timeframes and letting the market prove that bulls are stepping in.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Philip Morris (PM – Daily)
Philip Morris (PM) has completed a strong medium-term uptrend and entered a descending corrective channel.
This move appears to be a healthy structural correction, not a trend reversal.
Key observation:
• Price has broken above the descending channel
• Currently retesting the breakout zone
→ Classic break-and-retest behavior
Key Price Levels
• Key Support:
154 – 156
• Major Support:
148 – 150
• Immediate Resistance:
160 – 162
• Next Resistance:
168 → 172
Bullish Scenario (Primary)
If price:
• Holds above the 154–156 zone
• Shows bullish continuation from the retest
➡️ Corrective phase is complete and trend continuation is likely.
Upside Targets:
160 → 168 → 172
Invalidation / Stop:
Daily close below 148
Bearish / Failed Breakout Scenario
If price:
• Fails to hold above 154
• Falls back inside the descending channel
➡️ A deeper corrective move toward the channel lows becomes likely.
Downside Targets:
148 → 142
Bearish Invalidation:
Strong acceptance above 160
Final Takeaway
PM is transitioning from correction to potential continuation.
Holding above 154 keeps the bullish bias intact.
GOLD - Retesting support at 4440 ahead of the news FX:XAUUSD is correcting from weekly highs of $4,500 amid a rising dollar and profit-taking ahead of key US labor market data
The market expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in December (47.9) was lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of a dovish policy. In addition, geopolitical risks remain (Russia's actions off the coast of Venezuela, tensions between China and Japan), which continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets.
Today, ADP employment data, JOLTS job openings, and the ISM services index will be released. Weak indicators could increase pressure on the dollar and support gold.
The correction appears to be technical amid profit-taking. The uptrend remains intact as the dollar remains under pressure due to expectations of Fed policy easing. Any decline in gold can be seen as a buying opportunity.
Resistance levels: 4475, 4497, 4520
Support levels: 4442, 4430, 4402
Two key support zones relative to the current trading range: 4442 - 4430. A long squeeze and liquidity capture followed by price consolidation above key levels could shift the imbalance towards the buyer (bullish trend)...
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD - Consolidation before resistance at 4470. Bullish trendFX:XAUUSD resumes growth and tests 4470, an important resistance level, amid a weakening dollar caused by expectations of further easing of Fed policy and continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut intensified after the release of weak ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
Geopolitical risks have temporarily receded into the background, but remain a potential catalyst for a new wave of demand for safe-haven assets.
Attention is shifting to US labor market data (ADP report and JOLTS vacancies on Wednesday, NFP on Friday). Weak employment figures could increase pressure on the dollar and support gold.
Important nuances: China and Russia's reaction to US actions in Venezuela, as well as the open conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Further dynamics will depend on employment data and a possible escalation of the geopolitical situation. A break above $4470 will open the way to testing higher levels.
Resistance levels: 4470, 4488, 4519
Support levels: 4440, 4430, 4400
If the metal does not pull back from 4470 and continues to storm the resistance, then attempts to continue growth from 4470 can be considered. Otherwise, the market may test 4440-4430 before rising (long squeeze). Within the current cycle, gold has a chance to test its ATH.
Best regards, R. Linda!
DOGEUSDT - Consolidation after growth is a positive signBINANCE:DOGEUSDT is testing resistance, but the coin is not going to reverse yet. Focus on the current consolidation at 0.145 - 0.1534. A long squeeze or a breakout of resistance could trigger growth.
Bitcoin has been growing throughout the week, forming a retest of resistance. If the growth continues, it could support a bullish run in altcoins.
After the rally, DOGE moved into consolidation at 0.145 - 0.1533. The market is showing positive dynamics. The altcoin may test the consolidation support before growing. However, a breakout of the 0.1533 resistance and a close above the level could trigger an early rise.
Resistance levels: 0.1534, 0.1648
Support levels: 0.145, 0.139
Regarding the current consolidation in the trading range format, I highlight two levels: 0.1534 and 0.145. If the overall positive background persists, a false breakdown of support at 0.145 or a breakout of resistance at 0.1534 with the price closing above the level could trigger further growth towards the local zone of interest at 0.165.
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURUSD Breakdown Confirmed, 1.1640 Support in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD initially traded within a well-defined ascending channel, showing a strong bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows after the market started to grow from the lower levels. This bullish phase reflected steady buyer control, supported by a rising support line and multiple clean reactions along the channel structure. Eventually, price broke above the channel resistance, signaling momentum expansion. Following the breakout, EURUSD entered a clear range, where price consolidated between key highs and lows, indicating temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Multiple internal reactions and false moves within this range highlighted uncertainty and distribution near the highs. After topping out, price turned around and transitioned into a short-term descending channel, marking a shift in momentum. During this pullback, EURUSD broke below the range support and the descending channel support, confirming increasing bearish pressure. Price is now trading below the Resistance Level near 1.1720, which aligns with the former breakout area and the Seller Zone, reinforcing it as a strong supply region. The recent breakout below this level suggests sellers are gaining control in the short term. Currently, price is reacting around the Buyer Zone near the Support Level around 1.1670. This area aligns with prior demand and has already produced a small bounce, indicating potential short-term reaction. However, the overall structure remains corrective within the broader move. My scenario: as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1720 Resistance Level, bearish pressure is likely to persist, with TP1 targeting the 1.1640 Support Level. A clear breakdown below support would open the door for further downside continuation. Conversely, a strong reclaim and acceptance back above resistance would invalidate the bearish bias and signal a potential trend shift. For now, price is at a key decision zone where sellers hold the advantage while support is being tested. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Relief Rally Incoming?It’s been a punishing stretch for TWE holders, but price action has now pulled back into a critical zone where a relief rally could emerge. The broader trend remains bearish, so any positioning here must respect that context.
Key Support Factors
1. 200% retracement from the 2018 double top.
2. Low Volume Node (LVN) zone, indicating limited price acceptance and potential for sharp moves.
3. Demand structure anchored by the August 2015 candle.
4. Historical tops acting as structural support.
5. November monthly candle showed notable demand — high volume on a narrow spread.
6. 11 consecutive weeks down in a single swing, aligning with Gann’s 7–10 bar exhaustion principle.
7. Proximity to the yearly S4 pivot, reinforcing the demand zone.
Trade Scenario 1 – Aggressive Entry
Setup: Despite no confirmed trend reversal, risk-tolerant traders could begin scaling in here, supported by the confluence of demand factors.
Stop Loss: 5.22 — just beneath the demand structure and S4 pivot.
Take Profit: Initial target at the midline (EQ) of the downward channel. If price breaks cleanly above, extend targets toward the upper bounds of the channel.
Trade Scenario 2 – Throw-Under Reversal
Setup: If the S4 pivot and demand structure fail, watch for a throw-under pattern whereby price dips below support but quickly reclaims the range.
Confirmation: A bullish hammer or doji on surging volume, ideally accompanied by negative sentiment, would strengthen the reversal case.
Take Profit: Similar roadmap to Scenario 1 — first target at the channel EQ, then potentially the upper boundary if momentum builds.
Summary
This is a high-risk, counter-trend play. The confluence of structural supports, exhaustion signals, and pivot proximity offers a tactical window for relief. However, discipline around stops and scaling is essential, as the long-term bear market backdrop remains intact.
* Note, price pathing is not time based, just the overall price movement
BTCUSDT Long: Uptrend Continues Toward 94,500 ResistanceHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT initially traded within a well-defined descending channel, reflecting sustained bearish pressure during that phase. This move ended with a clear pivot point, followed by a strong breakout from the descending channel, signaling a shift in market control from sellers to buyers. After this breakout, price transitioned into a broad range, where BTC consolidated for an extended period, showing balance between supply and demand with multiple internal reactions.
Currently, BTC is approaching a key Supply Zone around the 94,500 level, where previous selling pressure is expected to re-emerge. This area aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel, increasing the likelihood of a reaction. Below current price, the Demand Zone near 86,800 remains a critical support level, marking the prior breakout area and the base of the bullish structure.
My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Demand Zone and stays within the ascending channel, the bullish bias remains intact. I expect price to test the 94,500 Supply Zone, where a reaction or short-term pullback may occur. A clean breakout and acceptance above supply would signal further upside continuation. However, a strong rejection from supply followed by a breakdown below channel support would suggest a deeper corrective move. For now, structure favors buyers while price remains within the ascending channel. Manage your risk!
BTCUSDT: Sellers Defend 91,800 as Bullish Momentum WeakensHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT spent a significant period trading inside a well-defined range, where price oscillated between clear support and resistance levels, showing indecision and balanced participation from both buyers and sellers. Multiple breakout attempts from this range failed, confirming the strength of the boundaries and the lack of sustained momentum during that phase. Eventually, price broke out of the range to the upside and transitioned into a clean ascending channel, signaling a short-term bullish shift. This move was supported by higher highs and higher lows, reflecting increasing buyer control. However, as price approached the major Resistance Zone around 91,800, bullish momentum started to fade. The market printed reactions and hesitation near this resistance, indicating strong selling interest at higher levels.
Currently, the upper boundary of the ascending channel is being tested, and price is currently struggling to hold above the 90,000 Support Zone, which previously acted as a key breakout and demand area. The recent price action suggests that the upside move is losing strength and may be corrective rather than impulsive.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario: as long as BTCUSDT remains below the 91,800 Resistance Zone and fails to reclaim the upper part of the ascending channel, the bias favors a short-term bearish correction. A rejection from resistance increases the probability of a pullback toward the 90,000 Support Zone, which is the first key downside target. If this support fails to hold, further downside continuation toward lower range levels becomes possible.
However, a strong bullish breakout and acceptance above 91,800 would invalidate the short bias and open the door for renewed upside continuation within or above the channel. For now, price is at a critical decision area, with sellers defending resistance and buyers attempting to hold structure. Caution and proper risk management are essential in this zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
GBPJPY: Classic Bullish Pattern 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY violated a horizontal resistance of a narrow
accumulation range on a daily time frame.
It provides a strong bullish signal.
Expect a rise to 212.5 level.
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GOLD - The battle for 4400. Will the growth continue?FX:XAUUSD starts the week of 2026 with a rise of more than 1.5%, staying above $4,400 amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Latin America
Geopolitical crisis: US-Venezuela, Donald Trump threatened new military intervention if the interim government does not comply with Washington's demands.
Expanding risks: Trump hinted at Colombia and Mexico. The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense. Against this backdrop, investors are actively shifting funds into defensive instruments, including gold and the US dollar
Important US labor market data is expected this week, which could add to volatility. Venezuela has set up a commission to free Maduro, indicating a further escalation of the conflict.
Gold remains a priority for investors amid unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty. Short-term corrections are possible, but the overall uptrend is likely to continue, especially if the conflict in Latin America escalates
Resistance levels: 4440, 4470, 4519
Support levels: 4400, 4373
If the bulls keep gold above 4410-4400, then in the short and medium term, gold will be able to continue to grow despite the fact that the daily ATR has already been exhausted. Local and global trends are bullish...
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURJPY - Correction (hunting for liquidity) before growthFX:EURJPY is entering a correction amid an uptrend that has been ongoing since March last year. Zone of interest: 183.0
Amid the growth of the dollar, the euro is entering a correction, but the main trend of the index is bearish.
The key area of interest and liquidity for the currency pair is 183.43 - 183.15. A false breakout/long squeeze and holding the price above this level could trigger further growth. Locally, we have a correction against the backdrop of a global bullish trend
Resistance levels: 184.26, 184.82
Support levels: 183.43, 183.15
A pullback on a bullish trend is an additional opportunity to enter the market at a favorable price. Focus on support at 183.43 - 183.15 (additionally 183.0)
Best regards, R. Linda!
ETHEREUM - Consolidation near 3150 ahead of rallyBINANCE:ETHUSDT.P is rising after breaking through trend resistance and consolidating. The main trend remains bearish, but there are local indications of bullish support. The 3150 trigger is ahead.
Bitcoin is strengthening amid geopolitical nuances, acting as a hedging factor (locally). A rise in the leading cryptocurrency could support Ethereum, which, in turn, could trigger a breakout of 3150 and a subsequent rally.
Ethereum is consolidating near 3150, forming resistance (a trigger). Technically, consolidation continues, and the coin may test local lows at 3120-3100 before retesting 3150 and continuing the rally.
Resistance levels: 3150, 3200, 3270
Support levels: 3120, 3100, 3077
If the pullback is not deep and the price quickly returns to retest 3150, then we can continue to monitor the coin, waiting for a signal to long...
If the bulls hold the price above resistance after breaking through 3150, this move could trigger continued growth toward 3200-3270.
Sincerely, R. Linda!
Natural Gas At Crucial Levelwww.tradingview.com
Natural Gas recent Daily Move is at crucial Juncture and at Interesting confluence
1. Break out of Bigger Parallel channel
2. Retest of the channel and raise
3. Break of Smaller Parallel Channel
4. Todays Daily candle retesting 0.9 of Fib.
Entry - 3.959
Targets - 4.656, 5.618,
Long term Targets -- 6.634 ( Minimize to see the confluence of Fibonacci's.
Stop Loss -- 3.685
Long Term View
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