EURUSD Compressing Above Demand - Next Move IncomingHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. The pair is trading within a broader bullish environment, supported by a clearly defined rising support line that has guided price higher over time. Earlier in the move, EURUSD entered a consolidation phase, forming a clean range where buyers and sellers were temporarily balanced. This range acted as an accumulation zone before a strong impulsive breakout to the upside, confirming buyer dominance and continuation of the bullish trend. Following the breakout, price accelerated aggressively and pushed into the Seller Zone / Resistance area around 1.1930, where selling pressure increased significantly. This led to a corrective pullback, as sellers defended the resistance and price retraced lower. However, the decline found support at the Buyer Zone near 1.1850, which also aligns with the broader support level and rising structure. This reaction signaled that buyers were still active and willing to defend demand, preventing a deeper breakdown and maintaining the overall bullish structure. Currently, EURUSD is consolidating above the Buyer Zone and holding above the key support level, while respecting the rising channel structure. Price action shows compression just above support, suggesting absorption of selling pressure rather than distribution. Multiple breakout attempts from this area indicate that buyers are gradually regaining control, while sellers are struggling to push price decisively below demand. This type of consolidation after a corrective move often precedes another impulsive leg higher. My primary scenario favors bullish continuation, as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1850 Buyer Zone and continues to respect the ascending support line. A confirmed breakout and acceptance above the current consolidation would open the path toward the 1.1930 Resistance / Seller Zone (TP1), where sellers may attempt to react again. A clean breakout above this resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal continuation of the broader uptrend. On the other hand, a decisive breakdown below the Buyer Zone and loss of structural support would invalidate the bullish setup and shift focus toward a deeper corrective phase. For now, structure, trend, and price behavior continue to favor buyers. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Parallel Channel
GOLD - Consolidation ahead of the news? Will the trend continue?FX:XAUUSD is attempting to recover to $5,000 after a sharp 3.5% drop on Thursday. There are no clear reasons for this. All market attention is focused on today's US inflation report - CPI.
Yesterday's gold sell-off was caused not only by technical factors, but also by capital flight to the dollar amid renewed fears surrounding AI. There was no news driver, the market was overstretched, and the sharp momentum of the dollar triggered sell-offs (liquidations) in the markets.
Despite strong NFP, the market is still pricing in at least two rate cuts this year.
Ahead is CPI — the main trigger: Forecast — Core CPI slowdown to 2.5% y/y. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, the market will reassess the Fed's plans, which will strengthen the dollar and hit gold.
High volatility is inevitable today.
Resistance levels: 4990, 5100
Support levels: 4944, 4902
Technically, local and global trends are bullish, and any correction could quickly end in growth, especially from strong levels. A breakout of 4990 and maintaining the price above this level could confirm the bullish nature of the market. On news amid high volatility, the market may test the support of the trend and the range of 4878 - 4812.
Negative scenario: a breakout and close below 4800 could trigger a fall to 4700 - 4600.
Best regards, R. Linda!
ADAUSDT - Short squeeze before falling to 0.22BINANCE:ADAUSDT , after breaking through the global support zone of 0.275 and updating its lows to 0.22, entered a phase of correction and consolidation below key levels. Another short squeeze could trigger a decline.
Bitcoin is falling after a correction, which generally indicates a weak market and increases bearish pressure on the market. I recently said that Bitcoin would fall even lower, as global targets have not yet been achieved, so against this backdrop, altcoins may react accordingly.
Any corrections and volume spikes can be seen as a hunt for liquidity and quickly sold off.
ADA has been strengthening since the session opened and is showing strength against a weak market (top gainers). There are no fundamental reasons for growth, and technically, the market is heading towards a zone of interest.
Resistance levels: 0.2688, 0.276, 0.284
Support levels: 0.243, 0.2200
From a medium-term perspective, the altcoin has not yet tested the global support level hidden behind 0.22 - 0.2167, formed in 2023. A retest and short squeeze of the resistance zone could trigger a decline towards the target
Best regards, R. Linda!
Bitcoin Rejects Resistance, Eyes Support Test Around $65KHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (1H) based on the current chart structure. Bitcoin previously traded within a well-defined descending channel, where price respected both the resistance and support boundaries, confirming controlled bearish pressure rather than impulsive selling. This channel structure guided the market lower with consistent lower highs and lower lows, reflecting steady seller dominance. The decline eventually culminated in a sharp sell-off that swept liquidity and formed a clear turning point, where price reacted strongly from the Buyer Zone. This reaction marked the first sign of demand stepping in and weakening the bearish momentum. Following this reversal, BTC staged a strong impulsive recovery and broke back above the Buyer Zone, signaling a temporary structural shift and attracting renewed bullish interest. After this move, price entered a consolidation phase, forming a clean range where buyers and sellers temporarily found equilibrium. This ranging structure acted as a redistribution zone before the market rotated lower again. The rejection from the upper boundary of the range aligned with the descending resistance line, confirming that sellers were still active within the broader channel context. Currently, BTC is trading below the Seller Zone and remains inside the descending structure, with price recently breaking down from resistance and rotating toward the channel support. This move suggests that the recent bounce was corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal. Price action shows controlled downside continuation, with the market now approaching the Buyer Zone around 65,000, which also aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel and a key support area. My primary scenario favors a continuation toward the support region, as long as BTC remains below the Seller Zone and continues respecting the descending resistance line. A clean reaction from the 65,000 Buyer Zone (TP1) could trigger another bounce, as this level represents a confluence of structural support and potential liquidity. On the other hand, a decisive breakdown and acceptance below this Buyer Zone would confirm bearish continuation and open the path toward deeper downside expansion. Until buyers reclaim the Seller Zone and break the descending structure, the broader short-term bias remains cautiously bearish. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTCUSDT: Bullish Scenario While Above 66.3K SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT was previously trading inside a well-defined descending channel, where price consistently respected the falling resistance and support boundaries. This structure was characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained bearish pressure and controlled downside continuation rather than panic selling. Each corrective bounce into channel resistance was rejected, reinforcing seller dominance throughout the move lower. As price approached the Support Zone around 66,300, selling momentum began to weaken. Bitcoin briefly broke below this support, creating a fake breakdown and triggering sell-side liquidity. However, this move was quickly reclaimed, followed by a strong bullish impulse back above the support zone. This behavior signaled seller exhaustion and marked a potential short-term structural shift.
Currently, after the reclaim, BTCUSDT transitioned into a range structure between roughly 66,300 support and 69,900 resistance. This consolidation reflects temporary balance between buyers and sellers, with price holding above reclaimed demand while failing to break through resistance. Importantly, price is also respecting a rising triangle support line, indicating gradual bullish pressure building from below.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario favors bullish continuation, as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 66,300 Support Zone and continues to respect the rising triangle support line. The fake breakdown followed by strong acceptance above support suggests that the prior move down was a liquidity sweep rather than the start of a new bearish leg. Structurally, this range appears more like accumulation than distribution. The next key upside objective is the 69,900 Resistance Zone (TP1), which aligns with previous resistance and the upper boundary of the current range. A clean breakout and acceptance above this level would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside expansion.
However, if price fails to hold above the support zone and breaks decisively below both the range low and the triangle support line, the bullish scenario would be invalidated, potentially leading to renewed downside continuation. Until such a breakdown occurs, pullbacks toward support are viewed as corrective rather than bearish reversal signals.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
GOLD - Consolidation & compression to 5090. A show of strengthFX:XAUUSD fell back to $5018 after the release of NFP data, but the market is actively buying up the decline and heading towards resistance at 5090. Buyers are waiting for new triggers — US unemployment data and geopolitics
The NFP report was strong, but the dollar performed poorly and was unable to sustain its growth. Most likely, the market quickly digested the strong NFP, focusing on the large downward revision of employment for 2025 (181K instead of 584K).
The renewed tension between the US and Iran (no agreement after talks with Israel) is keeping gold buyers in the game.
Traders are waiting for Friday's CPI as a possible driver. It will determine whether expectations of two Fed rate cuts this year will remain.
Resistance levels: 5090, 5110, 5144
Support levels: 4975, 4902
Technically, everything is moving towards breaking the resistance at 5090. Activation (breakthrough) of the trigger could provoke further growth. I do not rule out that before the growth, the market may test the support at 5050, 4975
Best regards, R. Linda!
USDJPY - Reversal setup relative to range support FX:USDJPY faces strong support within the correction. The price closed within the trading range of 152.8 - 157.78 and is forming a strong reversal setup relative to the lower boundary.
The dollar is strengthening, which supports the currency pair. The yen is undergoing a correction. Within the range, a rebound from support to 155.65 is possible, and if the bulls hold the specified resistance, the growth may continue to 157.78.
The currency pair is returning to support at 152.8 as part of the sell-off and is testing the level, forming a double bottom, which generally suggests that there is no possibility of continuing the decline against the backdrop of a strong dollar.
Resistance levels: 155.65, 157.78, 159.45
Support levels: 152.83
The false breakout of support indicates that the bulls are trying to maintain their positions and are not letting the price fall, which also confirms the formation of a double bottom. If the bulls keep the price above 153.0, this move could support the price growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Larsen & Toubro: Two Hanging Men at ATH — Reversal Ahead?Price is currently facing resistance near 4195, which marks the recent high.
Two hanging man candles have formed at this level, indicating selling pressure at the top. However, a hanging man needs proper bearish confirmation to signal a reversal.
Equal highs are visible here. Is a potential double top forming? Possibly — but there is no confirmation yet.
As long as price holds above the short-term support zone around 4080–4100, the structure remains stable within the rising channel.
For now, this is a resistance reaction — not a confirmed breakdown.
Let the market confirm before taking a directional view.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NZDUSD - Trio Retest at ResistanceNZDUSD is approaching a very interesting technical confluence, what I call a TRIO RETEST .
Price is now testing the intersection of:
• The upper bound of the blue corrective structure
• The upper bound of the red falling wedge
• The major green resistance zone
Three technical factors aligning at the same level makes this a high-probability reaction area.
As price approaches this confluence zone, we will be looking for trend-following shorts, in line with the bigger bearish structure.
As long as this trio intersection holds, sellers remain in control.
A clean rejection from this area would confirm continuation toward the lower bounds of the structure.
Confluence creates opportunity. Now we wait for confirmation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
To 700 or Not To 700? OBV Might Be The ClueEdit: Sorry for the jank chart on the front of this idea, I didn't realize the view I had when I published this idea would be the main one for this idea. Anyway...
I ran upon an indicator new to me, and just thought I'd manifest my observations and thoughts on this interesting indicator. Here's what Google AI has to say about it:
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is a momentum tool that measures buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days. It is used to confirm trends when OBV moves with price, or to signal potential trend reversals (divergences) when OBV moves in the opposite direction.
+How to Use the OBV Indicator:
-Trend Confirmation: When both price and the OBV line are making higher peaks and higher troughs, a bullish trend is likely to continue. Conversely, lower peaks and lower troughs in both indicate a bearish trend is likely to continue.
-Identify Divergences (Reversals): A bullish reversal signal occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the OBV line makes a higher low, suggesting buying pressure is building despite price drops. A bearish reversal signal occurs when the price hits a higher high, but the OBV line hits a lower high, indicating selling pressure.
-Identify Accumulation/Distribution: During a flat, sideways trading range, a rising OBV indicates accumulation (smart money buying), while a falling OBV indicates distribution (selling).
So we all see the consolidation that has been going on with AMEX:SPY since October. Won't go up, but also won't go down...
So here's a throwback to the infamous bear market of 2022. As you can see, the OBV indicator fails to make new highs while the underlying AMEX:SPY not only retests ATHs but makes new ATHs.
And now, in what looks like our consolidation, we can see that the lack of new highs is shadowed by the AMEX:SPY also making new ATHs and retesting previous ATHs.
Additionally, we see that AMEX:SPY is bordering the upper trendline of a long-term bullish channel.
Counter theses to this idea is that NASDAQ:NVDA does NOT behave like its magnificent 7 brethren and instead edges higher or explodes after its earnings report comes out. Another counter would be a surprise jobs number or inflation data point that points to rate cuts, however as we have seen today (2/11/26) a really good job data point resulted in a slightly down AMEX:SPY as good news basically confirms a "higher for longer" fed rate. Unless we get a hot inflation print or horrible job numbers, an NASDAQ:NVDA sell the news reaction could result in a drastic decline in AMEX:SPY soon.
I would assume that a far down AMEX:SPY strike would outweigh the risk of a "day-one" scenario after NASDAQ:NVDA earnings. I'm no data center guru but I could see how RAM price surging in the last year could affect the bottom-line of data center / AI farm users who purchase NASDAQ:NVDA GPUs, and a hurting bottom-line for them could result in reduced sales in GPUs.
**This is not financial advice**
Also, this is the first idea I have written and published.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Another Bearish Wave Coming?!
It feels like Bitcoin is preparing for another bearish move.
The market completed a consolidation, breaking
a support of a horizontal range on a daily time frame.
The closest strong support is 63000.
I think it will be reached soon!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
QQQ - Ready For A BreatherI believe I have identified another Wyckoff distribution pattern on QQQ. In early October, we saw the first signs of selling. We got a selling climax at the start of November. We have consolidated within this range over the past 3 months, testing the channel's highs and lows. It is not a perfect Wyckoff schematic, but the volume has certainly supported a move lower especially as of late.
For confirmation, I would like to see this current support level hold one more time. If it does, it would be the buyer's last gasp before taking out the low like a crashing elevator. I am effectively looking for some form of bear flag, descending triangle, or rising wedge pattern.
I will consider this trade invalidated if we begin to see strong closings above the midline of the channel. At that point, I may need to reassess the quality of the pattern or confirm that the pattern has failed.
The target to the downside would first be the 200 MA, which currently rests at 577. Below there is 560. I am still a bit fuzzy on the calculations of Wyckoff, but the point-and-figure chart suggests the final target should be about 520. I feel we would need a strong catalyst to reach those levels, but anything is possible these days.
NVDA Range CompressionOn the 1H timeframe, NVDA is trading inside a horizontal rising range / channel, showing clear sideways consolidation after volatility.
Price is oscillating between:
• Upper resistance: ~195
• Lower support: ~170–172
The moving average is flattening, confirming range-bound structure and lack of short-term trend momentum.
This is a classic compression phase, and expansion is likely soon.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
• Clean breakout above 195
• Strong acceptance above range high
• Upside targets:
• 205
• 215
• Would signal renewed bullish momentum
🔴 Bearish Scenario
• Breakdown below 170
• Loss of range support
• Downside targets:
• 160
• 150
• Would confirm distribution and trend shift
🛑 Trading Notes (English)
• Avoid mid-range entries (poor R/R)
• Best entries: range extremes or confirmed breakout
• Expect volatility expansion soon
BTCUSDT Compression Below Resistance Signals Expansion To 71,800Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. Bitcoin previously traded within a well-defined range, where price respected both the upper and lower boundaries for an extended period. This consolidation phase reflected balance between buyers and sellers, with multiple reactions from range highs and lows. Eventually, price broke down from the range, signaling a loss of bullish control and the start of a corrective bearish phase. Following the range breakdown, BTC entered a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Price respected the falling resistance line, confirming sustained selling pressure and controlled downside continuation rather than a volatile sell-off. During this move, several corrective bounces were capped by the descending resistance, reinforcing the bearish structure. Currently, BTCUSDT is consolidating above the Buyer Zone, while also attempting to break and hold above a newly formed ascending support line. This behavior suggests that selling pressure is weakening and buyers are gradually gaining control. The recent breakout attempts from minor resistance indicate early bullish intent, although price is still capped below the key Seller Zone / Resistance near 71,800. My primary scenario favors a move higher toward the 71,800 resistance level (TP1), which aligns with the Seller Zone and previous breakdown area. A clean breakout and acceptance above this resistance would confirm a deeper recovery and potentially signal a trend shift. However, a strong rejection from the Seller Zone could lead to another pullback toward the Buyer Zone. A decisive breakdown below the 68,000 support and loss of the ascending support line would invalidate the bullish recovery scenario and open the door for renewed downside continuation. For now, BTCUSDT shows signs of stabilization after a strong drop, with buyers defending demand and price compressing below resistance — a classic setup for a potential breakout move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Bitcoin: 4H Corrective Recovery Within a Broader DeclineBitcoin remains in a broader short-term downtrend following the completion of a five-wave decline into the recent low near 60K. The sharp selloff established a clear impulsive structure, suggesting the dominant pressure has been to the downside.
Since printing that low, price has entered a recovery phase. However, the rebound is developing beneath a descending trendline and remains contained within prior breakdown structure, indicating the move is corrective rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Current Structure
The advance from the low appears to be forming an A–B sequence, with price currently pressing into the 0.382 retracement area in confluence with the -0.618 target for the wave C. This region acts as first meaningful resistance within a corrective rebound.
If momentum continues higher and price clears this zone decisively, the next area of interest sits between 85K–88K, aligning with the 1.618 projection and prior structural supply.
Risk Levels
The recent low near 60K remains the key invalidation level for the current recovery scenario. A break below that level would suggest continuation of the broader bearish sequence and invalidate the corrective rebound thesis.
Summary
Short-term trend: Still recovering, but under structural pressure
Resistance: 0.382 retracement and descending trendline
Upside extension: 85K–88K if resistance gives way
Invalidation: Sustained break below 60K
At this stage, the move higher should be viewed as a recovery attempt within a larger corrective environment unless price reclaims higher structural territory.
EURUSD: Market Structure Flip Signals Upside Potential To 1.1970Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD was previously trading within a clearly defined downward channel, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure reflected controlled bearish pressure, where sellers maintained dominance but price action remained technical and orderly. Each corrective rally toward the upper boundary of the channel was met with selling interest, confirming the validity of the bearish trend and the strength of supply at higher levels. As price approached the lower boundary of the descending channel, downside momentum began to weaken. Sellers struggled to extend the move lower, and EURUSD started forming a base. This loss of bearish strength ultimately resulted in a decisive breakout above the downward channel, signaling a potential trend shift rather than a simple correction.
Currently, price broke out of the consolidation range to the upside and held above the reclaimed support, reinforcing bullish intent. The market is now trading above a rising trend line, with higher lows forming, indicating that buyers are gradually gaining control. Overall, EURUSD is transitioning from a bearish structure into a bullish continuation phase, supported by strong structural reclaim and healthy consolidation.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario favors bullish continuation, as long as EURUSD holds above the key Support Zone and continues to respect the rising trend line. The successful breakout from the downward channel, followed by consolidation and another upside breakout, suggests that the prior bearish move has been exhausted and that sellers are losing control. From a structural perspective, the inability of price to break back below support confirms that recent pullbacks are corrective rather than impulsive. As long as price remains above support, dips are viewed as potential continuation setups within a developing uptrend. The next key upside objective is the Resistance Zone around 1.1970, which aligns with previous resistance and a major supply area. This level represents a logical TP1, where partial profits can be considered and where sellers may attempt to defend the level. A clean breakout and acceptance above this resistance would confirm further bullish expansion and open the door for higher targets.
However, if EURUSD fails to hold above the support zone and breaks decisively below the rising trend line, the bullish scenario would be invalidated, and the market could rotate back into a deeper correction or range. Until such a breakdown occurs, the overall bias remains bullish, with structure favoring continuation to the upside.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical AnalysisU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 1-Hour Chart
1. Market Structure Overview
The DXY is currently trading around 96.83, following a clear rejection from major higher-timeframe resistance near 97.80–98.00. Price has transitioned from a bullish structure into a short-term bearish phase after:
A double rejection at the main resistance zone
A confirmed breakout failure above prior resistance (~97.20)
A subsequent Change of Character (CHoCH) signaling momentum shift
The broader structure shows distribution at highs and a controlled decline toward key support.
2. Key Technical Zones
🔵 Main Resistance: 97.75 – 98.00
Strong supply zone
Multiple rejections (circled areas)
Likely institutional distribution
Remains valid until clean breakout and sustained acceptance above
🔵 Intermediate Resistance: ~97.20
Prior breakout level turned resistance
Clean rejection after retest
Now acting as short-term upside target
🟢 Main Support: 96.30 – 96.50
Higher-timeframe demand zone
Recent bullish reaction (long lower wick + impulse bounce)
Currently defending downside
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Perspective
FVG (Fair Value Gap) formed during previous bullish leg — later mitigated.
Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the downside after resistance rejection.
CHoCH confirms short-term bullish attempt after support reaction.
Liquidity likely rests:
Below 96.30 (sell-side liquidity)
Above 97.20 (buy-side liquidity)
Market appears to be in a range compression phase between 96.40 and 97.20 before expansion.
4. Current Price Behavior
Price is consolidating above main support after a sharp rebound. The structure suggests:
Short-term accumulation near support
Potential liquidity sweep toward 96.40 before expansion
Compression pattern often precedes impulsive move
Momentum is neutral-to-slightly bullish on lower timeframe after support defense.
5. Trading Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Preferred While Above 96.30)
Potential dip into 96.40–96.50 (liquidity grab)
Bullish confirmation on lower timeframe
Target 1: 97.00
Target 2: 97.20 (range high / resistance)
Extended target: 97.75 (main resistance)
Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 96.30.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If 96.30 breaks decisively:
Liquidity flush toward 96.00–95.80
Continuation of short-term bearish structure
Broader correction within higher timeframe distribution
6. Conclusion
The DXY is trading inside a defined range between 96.30 (support) and 97.20 (resistance) after rejecting major higher-timeframe supply at 98.00.
Current structure favors a short-term bullish retracement toward 97.20, provided support continues to hold. However, the broader context still reflects distribution near major resistance, meaning upside may remain corrective unless 97.75–98.00 is reclaimed.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented is based on technical analysis and market structure interpretation at the time of writing. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
ETH/BTC 4H – Pressure Building Below Channel ResistanceETH/BTC continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel (Base Channel) following the completion of a prior impulsive decline. The recovery attempt has remained structurally weak, producing lower highs while respecting the lower boundary of the channel.
Price is currently approaching a confluence between the 0.236–0.382 retracement region and the lower boundary of the parallel channel. This area also aligns with prior breakdown structure, making it a technically sensitive level.
Price appears to be forming a temporary consolidation near resistance. If this rebound stalls below the lower boundary of the channel, the next move is likely to be another decline toward the lower part of the structure, with downside targets projected below recent lows. If the price decides to break in the parallel channel, then the move is likely headed upwards targeting the middle and upper boundaries. As long as the Wave (4) invalidation area is not violated, the count remains valid.
The broader bias remains negative while price trades below the highlighted invalidation band near 0.0325–0.0330. A sustained move above that region would neutralize the immediate downside scenario.
Until then, rallies appear corrective rather than impulsive.
IBM Testing Rising Channel SupportIBM is trading inside a well-defined ascending channel on the daily timeframe, reflecting a steady medium-term uptrend.
Price has recently pulled back sharply toward the lower boundary of the channel (~270–275), which is a critical support zone. This area also aligns with prior structure support.
The current move is a decisive moment:
Either this becomes a bullish bounce from channel support, or a breakdown that shifts structure.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
• Strong reaction and daily close back above 280
• Holding the channel support
• Upside targets:
• 300
• 320
• 340 (upper channel zone)
This would confirm continuation of the primary uptrend.
✅ Long Stop Loss:
• Below 268
• Conservative SL: below 260 (clean breakdown level)
🔴 Bearish Scenario
• Daily close below 270
• Clear breakdown of ascending channel
• Downside targets:
• 255
• 240
• 225 (major structure support)
This would signal a structural trend shift.
✅ Short Stop Loss:
• Above 285
• Aggressive SL: above 292
Trading Notes (English)
• This is a high-probability reaction zone.
• Breakdown trades require confirmation.
• Watch volume behavior near 270 support.
Why Amazon Is a Buy NowWhy Amazon Is a Buy Now
Amazon is currently going through a significant transition period in early 2026.
Although the stock has experienced recent volatility with a drop of nearly 20% so far this year the analyst consensus remains mostly bullish with price targets ranging between $260 and $300.
🪴 Growth Catalysts
AWS Cloud and AI is the primary engine.
AWS has returned to growth rates of 24% year over year surpassing previous quarters driven by the massive migration of Generative Artificial Intelligence workloads.
Digital Advertising is growing above 20% and has much higher margins than retail. Amazon is establishing itself as the third global player behind Google and Meta by monetizing Prime Video in addition to its website.
Proprietary Chips like Trainium and Graviton allow Amazon to reduce its reliance on Nvidia. Its chip business is expected to reach $10 billion soon while offering better costs to cloud customers.
Logistics Efficiency and Robotics through the implementation of AI in warehouses are successfully expanding operating margins in the retail business which is traditionally the tightest.
🐘 The Elephant in the Room 200 Billion Dollar Capex
The major current focus of tension is the announcement of 200 billion dollars in capital expenditure for 2026.
A negative interpretation is that the market fears this massive investment in AI infrastructure will reduce free cash flow in the short term.
A positive interpretation from CEO Andy Jassy is that this spending responds to massive real demand from customers. If Amazon manages to monetize this investment as it did with the original cloud infrastructure the long term profit potential is enormous.
📈 Technical Perspective and Valuation
Right now, in terms of price, Amazon is in a long-term bullish trend but is currently at a fairly low point. In fact, it is very close to the bearish channel.
In the short term, losing the $210 level has sent the price directly to $190. This area could be a very interesting buy for several reasons:
We will be at the bottom of the channel.
We will be right above a high-volume zone .
These were the 2021 highs.
The analyst consensus is at $300 , which means we are talking about a potential upside of more than 50% from this $190 support.
The Stop Loss can be very tight, we shouldn't see the price below $175. If that happens, we would be losing very important supports and even breaking a legendary channel.
Let's see how the price reacts to the $190 zone.
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