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Pin Bar

BTCUSD: Short Squeeze In Progress. 6941 Test Possible?BTCUSD update: 7240 low which was the lower boundary of the minor 8171 to 7239 support zone was established and followed by a very bullish pin bar. The current candle has taken out the high of this pin bar which is a bullish sign. What needs to happen now is the follow through. Without it, price can still retest 7239 or even 6941 before the reversal process is complete. Like I wrote in my previous report, do not react, instead plan ahead. The current location is a very attractive area for buyers. In fact, if you were watching the order books on the some of the major exchanges while price was flirting with the low 7Ks, there was a huge discrepancy between the pending buy orders and sell orders. There were was something like 30K to buy and 8K to sell at one point while short interest was declining. This was visible as price was going lower which clearly signaled that the smart shorts were getting out while the weak longs were being scared out. No new shorts were entering the market. This was a clear sign that a short squeeze was imminent. Buying in such a situation is tough, especially if you are managing a larger position already. Do not fear though, because if this is the beginning of the next broader bullish move, there is still plenty of opportunity to participate at an attractive reward to risk ratio. The key to bullish continuation is how the next few candles unfold. The fact that 8300 was taken out quickly is a sign of strength, and that could have been used as an aggressive buy trigger. The problem is, price is hesitating when it should be pushing higher. This hesitation may lead to a retest of the 7401 reversal zone boundary or even 6941 with is the next reversal zone established by the 7239 low. It is also possible that the market presents a shallow higher low. All three of these scenarios offer buying opportunities IF new reversal candles or inside bars appear at these levels. In summary, the bigger picture carries the most weight. It also allows you to plan ahead when you are able to project relevant support and resistance levels. These locations give you a reference point to anticipate, and prepare for reversal patterns and triggers, not to blindly jump in. Just like the market highs are very risky for longs, these market lows are very risky for shorts and attractive for longs, especially for position and swing trade longs since the potential move off of this area can lead to the mid 9Ks with relative ease. The question you must ask of yourself is how much can you risk? Choose an amount, and then split it up into smaller units. This allows you to distribute your risk across levels of aggressiveness. You can allocate part of your target size toward aggressive entries (break outs), while allocating other portions to more conservative entries (pin bars off of reversal zones). Remember this is not a casino, manage risk and the rewards will take care of themselves. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
34
LTCUSD: 149 Low Hint Of Reversal? Bears Still In Control.LTCUSD update: Pin bars appear across the board at key support areas.In order for a solid reversal to follow through, the next couple of candles need to close strong. If they don't, all of these markets become more vulnerable to retest the newly established low. Pin bars at such a relevant location signify that the predetermined support areas of all the major coins are attracting buyers. When a long tail forms on a candle, it is expressing an important story. It is telling us that as ugly as the market looked at those lows, there were not enough new sell orders to keep momentum going. The long tail is evidence that there are more buyers around these lows which should not be a surprise. The key to using this valuable information is waiting for "follow through". Follow through is when price presents a change, (pin bar) and it is then followed by a dramatic push in the new direction. If there is no dramatic push which should happen relatively fast (next bar or two) then that means buyers are not serious yet. What is more likely to happen during a lack of follow through is price will often test the low once more, only to fake out again. The reversal process often begins with a candle formation, but this does not guarantee that the next move is simply higher. IF momentum does not pick up, then watch for a retest of the 151 minor reversal zone boundary low. Possibly even the 139 low, before significant buying activity returns. Even though price is now within the 186 to 138 major support zone (.618 of entire bullish structure), and the 161 to 139 minor support zone (.618 area of recent bullish swing), it still has plenty of room to gyrate before enough buying comes in to push prices dramatically higher. In summary, I often write about the importance of defining your time horizon and developing your plan around it. I have been managing a position trade in this market and that means I will keep adding to it carefully IF the market offers those type of opportunities. Adding carefully means waiting for distinct signals, and fractional sizing. In other words I am managing inventory. All of these markets are now in very attractive buying locations, but that is not enough to buy, especially if you are managing positions. Price is still expressing bearish momentum and if it cannot produce a series of strong closes, it will be much more likely to retest lows. This market and BTC are still far enough from their respective lows (106 in this case) to produce a very broad higher low formation and that is what I am waiting patiently for to add to my position again. If price wants to go lower, I will just hold what I have an wait it out. This is the risk you take when looking to capture broader moves. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
Gold forms another pin bar at key support zoneGold – Gold forms another pin bar at key support zone, will it move higher? Gold has been buoyant and a potential buy at support near and just above 1300.00 key level. We can see that price pulled back last week to 1313.00 area and Gold formed a small bullish pin bar there on Friday, indicating price may bounce higher from that support again this week. More conservative traders may elect to get long down closer to 1300.00 on a signal or a blind entry there. We remain bullish in Gold above 1300.00
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by PkTk13
1
BTCUSD: Price Poised To Push 9600 Level?BTCUSD update: 8859 minor reversal zone support holds price as it is poised to test the 9616 minor resistance level. A close above this resistance will signal renewed bullish momentum which is more likely to lead to a retest of the 11700 double top area. The pin bar that appeared off of the 8659 level a couple of days ago is the bullish clue. As you can see, price did not continue higher immediately off the pin bar. There was a bearish candle that appeared first. This candle which is nothing more than noise, looks a lot more dramatic on smaller time frames, enough to suck people into shorts or shake people out of longs. This is why I always emphasize evaluating the bigger picture first. The low of that initial pin bar was never compromised. This bearish failure translates into a bullish sign. The 9616 level is the .382 minor resistance of the recent bearish swing. Once price closes above this level, it will confirm that a new bullish leg is in progress. Are there swing trade opportunities here? Yes, but like I wrote in my previous report, the specifics to this trade will be published elsewhere. Even without a specific call, there is enough information here to quantify risk and anticipate reasonable targets. Keep in mind, the fact that price has pushed into the current support has also signaled for me that the near term expectation of this market is a range bound environment. That means the 10422 to 10943 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing) and the 11700 peak area have a higher chance of preventing a broader break out. IF prices tests these levels and shows immediate signs of failure, I will be prepared to lock in more profit on the position trade that I am managing at the moment. IF price just blows through (still possible) I will take no action and let the winner run. In summary, many less experienced traders often think in absolutes: IF THIS, THEN DEFINITELY THAT. You can't operate in these markets with such limited thinking. Even gauging precise probabilities is more appropriate for PhD's in Statistics, and not practical for speculators looking to capitalize on short term market movement. What is more practical is having the ability to question the market at all times by maintaining a flexible mindset. As price pushes off the current support, and it is strong as proven by the inability to make a new low, how should it behave at the 9616 level? What should the candle look like? How should a strong market present itself upon testing a minor resistance? How should it close? What about if the pin bar low is taken out instead? What does that mean and how does it change expectations for yourself and the herd? These are the questions that you should be asking and answering as the market provides new information. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
ETHUSD: Pin Bar Establishes New Support For Longs?ETHUSD update: Recent pin bar formation establishes a higher low relative to the 565 low. Simultaneously price has also rejected the 670 extreme support boundary which is also now in line with the new converging bullish trend line. Observe the structure on the bigger picture and what do you see? A broad triangle which can be labelled as a large magnitude Wave 2. Just like in BTC, the immediate action in this market has been bearish. Smaller time frames will certainly blind you to what is happening where it matters more and that is on the big picture. This minor sell off has done nothing more than push price deeper into a supportive area. The 713 to 520 zone is the .618 area of the entire bullish structure originating from the sub 300 lows. If this market is going to mount a broad reversal and transition back to a more bullish environment, this area is the most probable location for it to begin. IF price closes above the 830 level, that would confirm the bearish trend line break, and will signal the possibility of the first leg of a larger magnitude Wave 3. Positioning for a move like this requires a plan for entries, adjustments and sizing which you must have figured out ahead of time. The bullish pin bar that has appeared is one sign of the beginning of a reversal. It does not guarantee that a reversal is necessarily in play. What if the next candle closes lower? What if the newly established bullish trend line is taken out? Bearish momentum can lead price to extreme lows such as the 520 support zone boundary or the 491 extreme support boundary. IF the market chooses this more bearish scenario, I will be looking to buy into that extreme weakness. In summary, buying a fundamentally strong market is not as simple as buying any pull back. As you can see, since the peak in January, this market has retraced more than 50%. Even though recent lows are attractive buy points, they do not guarantee the best prices. The key to remember is this: there are no "best prices", it is always about what you are willing to risk, and then waiting for the market to provide a scenario where that risk is within range. Are you willing to buy at 1400 and sit through a 50% pull back? (high risk) Or are you willing to wait for a more reasonable price area (50% off the peak) to start building a position? By the time the new bullish leg is in progress, the opportunities that exist at the moment, or leading up to the break out will no longer be available. The goal of this report is to provide perspective, and an idea of what an opportunity looks like. As far as specific trades, they will be available to those who know where to look. Questions and comments welcome. (PM for fastest response).
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
BTCUSD: Impulse Still Active. Bullish Retrace From These Levels?BTCUSD update: As of this writing a bearish pin bar is forming which indicates the onset of weakness. This is a good sign for me since I am interested in buying into the next higher low to add further to my long. In this report I will discuss the two price areas that I will be considering. The first point that I want to make is this: the analysis that I write is based on the configuration of the pin bar which is not established yet. It has about 14 hours before it closes which means it has plenty of time to change. It can get weaker which is what I would prefer, or it can close strong which will prevent me from taking any action. TA helps to define multiple scenarios, and then you adjust to what the market chooses, you don't react. IF the pin bar closes and the next candle continues lower, I am looking for price to present a shallow reversal between the 9956 to 9723 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). Since this zone is relatively narrow, a break lower will bring my attention to the 9280 swing low. IF price can produce a reversal pattern within these price areas respectively, I will be looking to add 30% to my position. IF price falls through these levels, (anything is possible) then once again I will be eyeing the 8171 to 7329 minor support (.618 of recent bullish structure) for reversals. Keep in mind the likelihood of this scenario is lower since this market is still within the boundaries of a bullish impulse wave. I am looking at the current bullish swing as a Wave 1 of a Wave v. The next minor retrace would be the Wave 2. Breaking below the 9280 low will negate this count and imply that this market is in a consolidation that will have to be identified further as it unfolds. If the Wave 2 establishes itself, then Wave 3 should carry price back up toward the 11700 swing high, and likely break higher. Many people get confused when it comes to the subjectivity of Elliott Wave, but remember it is best used to provide a general road map or guide. As the market changes, it offers criteria and categories to base ideas on, expecting more than that is not realistic. In summary, looking ahead and preparing is much more effective than reacting. Inexperienced traders may focus on the pin bar and look to sell, but may quickly overlook the context of the situation surrounding this formation. With the bullish impulse wave still intact, this market is still has a short term bullish bias which reduces the weight of bearish formations like a pin bar, or lower high until the impulse is negated. This information alone should at least help you to look for support levels to hold rather than break, and more importantly to anticipate bullish reversals. This is how understanding context guides your decision making process which is much more effective than simply reacting to a candle formation alone. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
A+ BEARISH candlestick signalSTOP LOSS : 46.77 TAKE PROFIT : 42.56 Risk-reward : 2.17 Longer term trend: Sideways Current trend: Bearish General comments: Bearish movements seen at the end of Jan-18 with recent low being around $42.5. Price then moved higher till current price whereby it faced strong resistance - a strong daily resistance which coincides with the 50% retracement of the bearish move. An optimal entry is a few cents lower than the low of the bearish pin bar, which is highly probable to happen. What I like: 1) Reversal pattern happens in close proximity of strong resistance, meaning stop-loss can be tactically close-by. 2) Grade A+ reversal from a candlestick technical standpoint - excellent 3 bar reversal and pin bar closes very close to the low and below the resistance. 3) Trade is with the current trend. 4) Should the target price be triggered, a head and shoulder pattern will be confirmed. This means another shorting opportunity and to carry our trade even further lower. Other things to note: If trade is triggered, it will likely last for a few weeks to about a month. *A probable head and shoulder chart pattern seems to be in the making. I will be keeping an eye in the foreseeable future. * Do support by liking and following! All suggestions/feedback welcome! x, iskfx
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by PineConnector
Bullish bias for Exxon @ strong support lvl & bullish trendlineGeneral overview: 1) general direction since 2010 has been bullish 2) a 61.8% retracement occurred in late-2015, and we are at a similar level 3) lower highs seen after the massive retracement, though lower lows not being tested till recently What I like: 1) the pin bar pokes through a strong support level, bullish trendline, and the 61.8% retracement and closes above all three 2) excellent R/R of around 2-3 (depending on stop loss location, either way quite favorable) 3. if price hits target and breaks the upper limit of the triangle, price target will be moved even higher up till ~$104 mark. This makes a R/R of around 2 to a 6 easily. What I dislike: 1) subsequent day of the pin, price broke the high but closed not very much higher - this may be a sign of weakness Others to note: 1) volatility in stocks globally are higher than usual. This means stop losses should be placed slightly further than usual to avoid being a victim of whiplashes. *This is my first few attempts to contribute to the tradingview community. All suggestions/feedback welcome! x iskfx
NYSE:XOMLong
by PineConnector
BTCUSD: Poised For Retrace. Back To 7Ks? Or New Low?BTCUSD update: 8427 resistance decisively broken, so where is the steep rally? A retest of supports is necessary to "prove" that the bears are no longer in control. At the moment, a shooting star candle formation is unfolding just after pushing the 8427 level that I have been writing about. And if this candle closes in this configuration, it is a bearish sign. Keep in mind this period has at least 10 more hours before the candle is official. The close will more than likely determine if this market is going to retest a lower level, or continue the initial rally leg that has been building since the Senate hearings on Tuesday. One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that markets trend. Trends occur on every time frame and carry different weights. A 1 minute trend is much less significant than a 4 Hour trend, etc. Over the previous month, the intermediate trend has been bearish, while the bigger picture is still bullish. This can be confusing and is why it is so important to know what time frame you are looking to operate on before taking any trade. In order for this intermediate bearish trend to break, the market needs to fail to make a new low and instead, take out a previous peak. This is a process, not a single event. 8171 to 4983 is a major support area (.618 of entire bullish structure) but does not guarantee a reversal will materialize. One scenario that will signal the return of strength before it is obvious is what I call the broader higher low formation. "Broader" means it must happen on a large time frame like a daily or 12 hour. A convenient support area for this higher low is the 7149 to 6677 minor support zone (.618 are of current bullish swing). If price retraces from the current pin bar, I will be watching this minor support zone for bullish reversal patterns. Since the 8427 resistance was compromised, I am anticipating that there is a greater chance the minor support holds. A bullish reversal off of this zone should then lead to a higher high if the market is changing direction. Keep in mind, a broader higher low does not necessarily lead to a new bullish trend. This market may become more range bound before the bigger picture reasserts itself. The focus is to observe the signs and anticipate the most immediate move relative to your time frame and adjust accordingly, not to "predict" the broader moves of the market and feel good about being "right". In summary, this market is not out of the clear yet. IF the minor support in the high 6Ks is broken, this market may retest lows. IF the support holds, then anticipate the next resistance to be compromised and adjust accordingly. I am playing the bigger picture and in a situation like this, my choices are to add to my position, decrease my position, or do nothing. Since I am sticking to my bigger picture plan, I will not be shaken by a new low, I will just hold on to what I have and wait until the market shows a more supportive environment. This is not that difficult to do because my position is not margin based. I compare it to holding physical gold as opposed to paper gold (futures). IF the higher low forms, I will be looking to add once more, and from there only add on resistance break outs. My decisions are a function of the time frame that I am operating on, and is key to avoiding confusion and sticking with the plan. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Pin Bars Appear Within Support Zone. Signs Of Reversal?BTCUSD update: Lower low made at 7960 followed by a retrace and closed back within the 8656 boundary. The current candle (still open) is also showing a second pin bar off the the 8171 upper boundary of the large magnitude support zone below. I have bought more at 9202.18 (Coinbase) to add to my long position trade. You know when a short term low is established when members of the herd send you private messages bragging about their short positions. It is very entertaining, but more importantly serves as an excellent contrarian indicator, no different from all the buyers at 18K screaming that 30K is around the corner back in December. It does not surprise me that the first signs of stability are unfolding as I write this. As I keep emphasizing, effective positioning begins with a perspective. The problem is there are many perspectives to choose from and they all have their own unique focal points. The short term perspective (day trading) is bearish, but this perspective changes often, while the long term (position trading, investing) is bullish and requires major fundamental shifts in order to change (like how interest rates affect stocks). Since I am not day trading, I am only focusing on bigger picture clues and information. This is probably one of the more difficult concepts for newer traders to understand because they are usually so focused on the immediate price action and do not know how to separate perspectives. From the broader perspective, this market is now showing some early signs of stability. Price has managed to close within the 10988 to 8656 support zone (.618 are of broader bullish structure) and has rejected the upper boundary of the 8171 to 4983 largest magnitude support zone (.618 area of entire rally from sub 150 to 20K). This price action can lead to a rally attempt, but there is no way to tell if price is going to build the next broader leg up to the major highs from here. Reasonable targets for such a rally attempt are the 10988 upper boundary of this zone, and 12565 which is the short term trend resistance at the moment. Breaking beyond those levels will require very bullish motivators which are possible since nothing significant has really changed in this environment. I believe the reward/risk is very attractive at these levels, in addition to the projected levels and now candle formations. The new long position that I have taken brings my average price to 10,886. Depending on how price behaves IF it makes it back to projected resistances, I will determine if it makes sense to lock in some profit or hold further. When trading on broader time horizons, there is much less precision involved but some basic rules and best practices that should always be adhered to no matter what. In summary, the reversal that I am observing is still very small and it is possible that it can fizzle out. I am betting that there is less of a chance of that happening, but IF it does, that is okay too. I do not plan to add any more to my long after this trade. This position is definitely more aggressive, but I understand the risks involved and have sized carefully. The more conservative scenario is to wait for a higher low or failed low before taking a new long which would also serve as an attractive swing trade if you are looking for a shorter time frame exit. Risk would be measured from the 8K level. It is very easy to get sucked into the drama, and that is just human nature. There are many ways to minimized this, and that is what best practices are all about. Careful sizing, waiting for relevant levels and evaluating price action in light of the time horizon you intend to trade on are examples that lead to more rational decision making. If you find yourself confused or conflicted, it means you are not organizing your information effectively. Choose one time frame, learn what is relevant and reasonable for that magnitude, and then stick to it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
48
GBPJPY Bullish Pinbar On Support LevelHello Traders! It's Wednesday today, the last day of the month for January. While I was scanning the charts this morning upon the list of the currency pairs that I'm trading, I saw a possible long trade entry in the GBPJPY pair. As you can see from the chart below, it's evidently clear that this market is in an obvious uptrend since September of 2016 successfully breaking previous resistance and making higher highs. As of today, we've got a nice Bullish Pin bar or Bullish hammer keeping the price buoyant to that support level around 152.72. Together with the uptrend momentum, a possible thrust to upside is anticipated for the next trading days. For now, my buy limit entry is a little bit being left behind as I was hoping for small pullback with a tight stop loss. Thanks for reading. Will update this currency pair soon. To know more about price action trading setup, kindly visit my site: livetotradefx.blogspot.com Cheers!
Long
by livetotradefx
BTCUSD: Test Of Low In Sight But Bears Beware.BTCUSD update: Lower high increases the possibility of the failed low attempt around the 9683 level. To break this bearish bias, price needs to push above the 12346 minor resistance zone. Even though a higher low formation has been established above the 9989 area, that does not guarantee we will get the new rally back to 15K or 16K. It increases the chances UNLESS the market changes which we have no control over. As a price action trader I do not fight or insist or assert my ego, I simply adjust. The current bearish pin bar that is forming indicates such a change and points to the possibility of the bearish momentum leading this market toward retesting the lows once again. In order for this scenario to follow through, the bearish pin bar needs to close in the current configuration and the next candle needs to break the current candle low and close weak as well. IF this sequence occurs, then the retest of the lows becomes much more likely. What is the failed low formation? As I wrote in my previous report, the failed low is when price goes slightly lower (often into a reversal zone) and then proceeds to reverse dramatically. Often a pin bar will appear in these type of situations. Failed lows look extremely bearish at the bottom and are usually accompanied by a lot of hype, drama and bearish news. Trading failed lows often provides very attractive reward/risk since the best prices become available. The key to watch for is the reversal candle formation within the reversal zone which in this case can be between the 9683 area and the 8656 boundary. IF the reversal candle never appears (and closes) then that is a sign to steer clear because it will indicate bearish momentum is taking prices to much lower levels. I am still long from an average price of about the mid 12Ks and do not intend to exit. I write about the bearish possibilities because they are important to be aware of for risk management purposes but if the reversal candle that I am anticipating appears, I will simply buy more. What makes me so bullish in such a situation is the key support area and repetitive buying patterns. I am evaluating and positioning myself for a broader rally that may take days or weeks to unfold in this market. It is just a matter of a bullish catalyst taking the market by surprise that will spark such a move. In summary, being able to anticipate what the market is likely to do next provides a way to constantly adjust risk and expectations. Bullish momentum came into the market, but has stalled for whatever reason but do not lose sight of the bigger picture. Lower highs often lead to lower lows BUT there is no guarantee that this market will push lows here especially in light of being within a relevant support zone. Any minor higher low or immediate reversal off of a lower low (failed low formation) and I am looking to add to my position trade long. IF price breaks below dramatically, then I just sit on my position and wait for renewed signs of stability and evaluate from there. IF instead price never pulls back and pushes through the minor resistance, then we are back in the bullish momentum scenario. Trading and investing effectively starts with a plan, and that plan begins with an evaluation process that considers multiple scenarios. Either the market confirms or it doesn't and based on your risk tolerance you should know ahead of time what action you are going to take. Not reaction. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33