USDJPY: The Market Will Recover 🇺🇸🇯🇵
There is a high chance that USDJPY will grow on Monday,
following a formation of a huge Fair Value Gap FVG
after a Powell speech on Friday.
A trap that is followed by a bullish imbalance indicate
a highly probably bullish movement at least to 147.25 resistance.
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Pivot Points
$HUT Clear for take off?NASDAQ:HUT bounced strongly off the weekly pivot retest above the major resistance High Volume Node flipped support.
Path is clear for the weekly R1 pivot target resistance at $33 and a poke above the previous swing high.
Long term cyclical targets remain at the R3 weekly pivot at $61. Weekly RSI is in an uptrend but not yet overbought while weekly RSI is pointing upwards.
Analysis is invalidated below $10.7
Safe trading
SMC Trading Basics. Liquidity Zones & How to Identify Them
In the today's article, I will teach you the concept of liquidity zones and how to identify them properly, trading Forex, Gold, Crypto and Indexes.
Simply put, a liquidity zone is a certain area on a price chart where a significant concentration of trading volumes occurred.
Huge trading volumes signify the presence of big players: hedge funds, banks, etc...
Correct identification of liquidity zones is essential for smart money trading, because such zones provide the safest and the most profitable trading opportunities.
There are 3 common characteristics of a valid liquidity zone:
1. Huge volume spikes upon its test
Take a look at the underlined blue area on USDCAD.
We see sharp volume spikes when the market was testing that area.
2. Strong rejections from such an area with a formation of long wicks
Look how the price reacts to the liquidity zone on USDJPY.
We see multiple strong rejections from that.
3. Long consolidation within that zone
Bitcoin was "standing" on a liquidity zone for more than 3 weeks, barely moving while trading volumes were quietly accumulating.
4. Multiple strong bullish or bearish reactions to that area
Just look how many times the underlined area was respected by the buyers and by the sellers. That is a perfect example of a liquidity zone.
To underline a liquidity zone properly, follow these simple rules:
1. If the price is ABOVE the liquidity zone, its lower boundary
will be the lowest wick within that area and its upper boundary will be the lowest candle close. Such a liquidity zone will be called a demand area.
Here is the example of drawing a liquidity zone on GBPUSD.
The lower boundary of the zone is the lowest wick, while its upper boundary is the lowest candle close.
2. If the price is BELOW the liquidity zone, its upper boundary will be the highest wick within that area and its lower boundary will be the highest candle close. Such a liquidity zone will be called a supply area.
Here is the liquidity zone that I identified on Gold following our rules.
Remember, that you can identify liquidity zones on any time frame. However, the rule is that the higher is the time frame, the stronger is the liquidity zone.
I prefer to analyze the liquidity zones on a daily time frame.
Once you underlined liquidity zones, you should realize that within these areas, big players are expected to place their orders in the future.
For that reason, after the tests of such areas, a strong bullish or bearish movements will be expected.
Here is a huge liquidity zone that I spotted on GBPJPY.
Look at a strong bearish movement that initiated after its test.
Your task as a smart money trader will be to identify bullish or bearish confirmations and understand the intentions of big players. With experience, you will learn to recognize valid signals.
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$HBAR Macro Chart - Ready for wave 5 of (1) of 3 up?CRYPTOCAP:HBAR appears to be printing a wave 4 triangle above the weekly pivot point. This implies the next move would be a terminal wave (5) of 1 of (3) likely completing with a poke above all time high to trap FOMO novice investor / traders. Classic Elliot Wave.
Wave 2 of (3) has a high probability of ending at the wave 4 triangle base which is the weekly pivot and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement adding confluence. This fib level support would indicating continued trend strength.
If it is a wave 1 of (3) is completing then we can expect the long term target to overextend the weekly R5 pivot point of $1.16, possibly reaching $3.
Weekly RSI remains at the EQ so plenty of room to grow.
Analysis is invalidated below the weekly pivot.
Safe trading
$CLSK Looks like XRP at $0.4 before the move to $3NASDAQ:CLSK is hated right now as much as XRP was when it ranged between $0.4-$0.8 for 4 years before it when ballistic.
CRYPTOCAP:XRP printed a huge macro triangle similar to what I have identified here for CLSK which looks complete at the triangle EQ, where wave E is expected to terminate! This finds confluence with the High Volume Node and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
Quadruple resistance lies ahead of the weekly 200EMA, major High Volume Node, weekly pivot point and descending resistance boundary, tested multiple times weakening the point. This built up pressure could provide an explosive move to price discovery.
I have left my alternative motif wave count on their as a secondary count (1-2) with similar targets.
RSI is at the channel EQ so plenty of upside left.
Analysis is invalidated below $6.05.
Safe trading
$BTDR Pressure Building?NASDAQ:BTDR still appears to be in a wave 2 triangle building pressure for a significant wave 3 up into price discovery.
Wave (II) found support a the golden pocket, shallower than the other miners! Price has tested the upper boundary of the triangle and High Volume Node multiple times at $15 and only once at the bottom threshold hinting at a breakout upwards. Each test makes the boundary weaker.
The weekly pivot point at $17 is the first area of resistance to watch followed by the all time high at $25
Analysis is invalidated below $6.44. RSI is only at the EQ so has room to grow.
Safe trading
$AAVE Set for all time high?AAVE tested the weekly pivot as support and after a secondary pullback to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, sky rocketed alongside BTC and crypto yesterday to a new local high.
Wave III looks truly underway with this kind of price action and the target remains the R5 weekly pivot at $1155. High Volume Node resistance at $460 and $670 are the next targets.
Weekly RSI has plenty of room to grow to get to overbought.
Analysis is invalidated below $111 so plenty of room to breathe!
Safe trading
BTC/USD 1H Key Levels to WatchResistance Zones:
$119,082 - Major resistance, watch for rejection
$117,857 - Secondary resistance level
$116,940 - Intermediate resistance
Support:
$114,000 - Critical support zone
Current Setup:
Price action around these levels will determine next directional move. Clean break above $119k could signal continuation higher, while failure to hold $114k support may lead to further downside.
Trade Plan:
Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempts
Look for rejection/bounce signals at key levels
Manage risk accordingly
Not financial advice. DYOR.
ETH - 4H Elliott Wave Analysis - 22.08.25Greetings ^^
We did get our rally from the support area that we had on the chart.
We assume that high of the 14th of August formed the top of the white Wave 3 and that we are currently in a correction displayed as yellow ABC which would form the white Wave 4.
The support area of this Wave 4 is between the 0.236 FIB at 4059 USD and the 0.5 FIB at 3370 USD. The Wave A is in and today's rally is the B Wave which we thermalized in yesterdays analysis and did expect it to be strong. We assume this ABC is an expanding flat which means the B Wave overshoots which it did. It touched the 1.05 FIB at 4833 USD which is a common target but it also is right below the ATH. Further targets for the B Wave would be the 1.236 FIB at 4985 USD and the 1.382 FIB at 5105 USD.
Next we would look for a Wave C to the downside.
The targets for this C Wave are the 0.618 FIB at 4375 USD the 1 to 1 FIB at 4106 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 3947 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 3853 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 3705 USD. A lot of targets, the most common is the 0.618 and the 1.618 FIB. The 1.618 FIB would also be in confluence with the 0.382 FIB of the Wave 4 support area which is the optimal target for a Wave 4.
Alternatively you can count the recent low as blue Wave 4 instead yellow A Wave and the move up today could potentially be the blue Wave 5 which would than finished white Wave 3. We do think the count mentioned above is more likely as the yellow A touched the 0.236 FIB of the white Wave 4 support area which is a common target for an A Wave and additionally the structure of today's rally look more corrective on the smaller timeframes. Overall it does not make a big difference for the moment except that in the blue Wave 5 we could go a bit higher compared to the overshooting B Wave.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus
SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus
Established Uptrend with Strong Trend Line Support: SPY continues to display a clear upward trend on the daily timeframe, with price consistently finding support along the depicted trend line. The recent pullback in mid-August saw price effectively test and bounce off this crucial trend line, reaffirming its strength.
640 as Immediate and Confluent Support: The 640 level has proven to be an immediate support zone, coinciding with the recent touch of the upward trend line. The market has shown a decisive bounce from this confluence of support, suggesting current bullish momentum for the short term.
Key Level 620-625 as Deeper Support: Should the immediate 640 support and the upward trend line fail to hold, the next significant 'Key Level' to monitor is the 620 to 625 range. This area has previously acted as a strong demand zone and would represent a more substantial correction within the prevailing uptrend.
Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech signaling potential rate cuts amid labor market slowdown and inflation risks, fueled a surge in growth and tech stocks, reinforcing today’s rally.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Nifty Analysis EOD – August 22, 2025 – Friday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – August 22, 2025 – Friday 🔴
Bears finally break the wall — wiping out 4 sessions’ gains
🗞 Nifty Summary
Yesterday, we noted:
“Though the close is higher by +33 points vs the previous day, it left behind a red daily candle (close < open). This indicates fading bullish momentum, even though HH-HL structure is still intact. The range was narrow (≈98 points), categorising the day as range-bound, not sideways. The previous weekly expiry was also narrow yet sideways.”
That caution proved valid today. Right from the opening candle, Nifty broke the PDL + S1 zone, invalidating the HH-HL structure and giving bears a clean entry. The past two sessions’ range contraction added fuel to the breakdown, resulting in a 225-point fall.
The attempted defense at 24,995, 24,955, 24,920, and 24,890 provided only temporary halts, but the downside momentum was too strong. The day ended at 24,869.45, erasing gains of the last 4 sessions.
On the weekly chart, the index now resembles a bearish pin bar / inverted hammer, a sign of exhaustion at the top.
📌 For Monday:
If Nifty fails to hold 24,850–24,820, then 24,745 and 24,650 come into play.
Bulls must reclaim and close above 24,955 to hold their fort.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
📌 Intraday Walk
Opened at 25,064.15 with mild optimism.
First 1-min candle → broke PDL + S1 decisively → bears in control.
Gradual fall → temporary fights at 24,995 → 24,955 → 24,920 → 24,890, but all failed.
Closing print at 24,870.10, almost at the day’s low.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,064.15
High: 25,084.85
Low: 24,859.15
Close: 24,870.10
Change: −213.65 (−0.85%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Strong red candle (Close < Open)
Body: 194.05 points
Upper wick: 20.70 points
Lower wick: 10.95 points
Full-body bearish bar → strong downside momentum
📚 Interpretation
Sellers seized control after three days of stalling at 25,150–25,180.
Break below 25,000 confirms supply dominance.
Closing near day’s low = no recovery attempt → decisive distribution.
🕯️Candle Type
Bearish Marubozu-style → clear trend shift to sellers.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 198.19
IB Range: 134.25 → Medium
Market Structure: ImBalanced
Trade Highlight:
9:20 → Short Trigger → Target Achieved (R:R = 1:2).
🕵️Range & Bias
Support zone: 24,850–24,820
Resistance zone: 25,000–25,080
Bias: Bearish momentum → “Sell on rise” until 25k is reclaimed.
📌 Support & Resistance Levels
🎚️ Resistance Zones
24,920
24,955
24,995 ~ 25,005
25,080 ~ 25,090
🎚️ Support Zones
24,850 ~ 24,820
24,770
24,745
24,695 ~ 24,675
💡 Final Thoughts
The market has shifted gears from cautious bullish to outright bearish, with 25,000 now acting as a supply zone. Unless bulls reclaim lost ground above 24,955–25,000, the slide toward 24,745–24,650 seems inevitable.
“Markets climb the stairs but take the elevator down — today, the elevator arrived.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is my personal analysis — not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
ETH New Analysis (4H)After the weekly trigger line was broken and a key supply was cleared, most of the major market participants have been accumulating Ethereum. Considering the momentum and power of the previous bullish trend, we expect nearby supports to hold well and a large distribution phase to form.
In this phase, in order to fill the orders of big players and create a strong bullish outlook before a major correction, the price is expected to revisit the previous bullish wave or even hunt Ethereum’s all-time high.
As long as the green zone holds, we anticipate a price pump for Ethereum in the coming days.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
$TSLA looks "Cheap" but it can always get cheaperTSLA has been consolidating in a flag here. While price could break up out of it, I actually lean towards price breaking to the downside. The reason is because there have been more tests on the downside, and I think if price falls and tests it again, it'll break.
That and, if you turn on Heikin Ashi candles, it looks like bearish momentum is starting on higher timeframes (1D-4D) and Ichimoku giving bearish warning signals in the cloud formation.
I think the most likely outcome is that we break lower and go test the box below for a new low. Everyone would get bearish down there, but that will be a great level to buy for the long term.
CAKEUSDTThe price of $CAKUSDT has been in an uptrend but recently dropped from its high to a correction level at $3.260. Right now, it has pulled back to $2.610, which looks like a great area to buy. This price is a good spot because it’s where the price might bounce back up, making it a smart entry point for a trade.
22.08.25 – XAUUSD Market Bias Strate💡 How the Strategy Works:
Identify when a 4-hour candle opens above or below any of the key levels listed below.
The nearest level to the candle open will define the market bias:
Above level → Long Bias
Below level → Short Bias
If price touches a level but fails to hold, and the next 4-hour candle opens in the opposite direction, the bias flips.
Once flipped, the market is expected to target the previous level.
⛔ Stop-Loss / Trade Exit Rule:
After entering a setup, if any 1-hour candle opens in the opposite direction to the 4-hour candle bias where the setup was taken, close the trade manually to limit losses.
📍 Key Levels for Today:
Pivot: 3338.763
Supports: S1 = 3325.227 | S2 = 3311.743 | S3 = 3298.207
Resistances: R1 = 3352.247 | R2 = 3365.783 | R3 = 3379.267
📌 Reminder: Discipline over greed works — take the 50 pips, lock profits, and avoid unnecessary risk.
MEME Main trend -97% Channel. Reversal or scam zone.Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not needed).
🟡 The price has reached a decline from the highs (not a listing squeeze) -97%. These are practically the maximums of declines after the hype for cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (96-98), after which there is only a complete scam. At the moment, there is a reaction from this zone (the lower zone of the main trend channel) (impulse buyback), and a rollback after it, which forms the canvas of a potential ascending flag. If there is a breakthrough, then locally - the implementation of the ascending flag.
⚠️🔼 These are high-risk cryptocurrencies of such liquidity (that's why such declines are big), but the percentage of price growth in them, for the same reasons (liquidity/volatility) is an order of magnitude greater in the case of their implementation. When working with such assets, observe money management.
🟣 Implementation of the flag's goals (essentially to the channel median) +80-100%
🟡 To the resistance of the descending channel of the main trend +325%
🔵 To potential highs (one of the previous consolidations) +1000-1300%.
SP500 Secondary trend. Part of the channel. Reversal zone. 2025 Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (less is not necessary). The SP500 index primarily reflects the "health" of the American stock market and the economy as a whole. This is reflected in all markets by the domino effect.
Now, after a huge takeout and recovery, the price is at the maximums of the local trend that has formed, and this is also the maximum of the index as a whole for its entire 100-year existence (before displaying on the chart).
🔄 Locally, the price has run into the resistance of the median of the ascending channel (green dotted line). Now the resistance level of this zone will be formed.
🟢 A breakout of this zone upwards - an exit above the median, promises strong growth and pumping of the stock market as a whole.
🔴 And the reverse process is not a breakthrough and not a consolidation above this zone - consolidation in the range under resistance and above the dynamic support of the internal channel. An extremely negative case is a decline in the lower zone of the channel.
🧠 The chart as a whole shows the channel range itself. Including on both sides, price slippage zones (low probability), as well as key support / resistance levels of this secondary trend that exist, and those that will be formed in the future, but will be key for the development of the trend. This can be an addition to the analysis and formation of tactics and money management in other markets, including cryptocurrency.
ETH - 1H Elliott Wave Analysis - 21.08.25Greetings and welcome to another Ethereum analysis.
For Ethereum we got two scenarios. Both bullish.
Case 1:
We assume the last top which we created during the 14th of August was our blue Wave 3 and the recent correction our blue Wave 4 as red ABC. The Wave 4 support area goes down to the 0.618 FIB at 3976 USD which is the invalidation of this scenario. Next we want to see a bounce which would start the blue Wave 5 which should take us to new ATH.
Case 2:
Alternatively we could count the blue 5 wave move up finished in which case the blue Wave 3 would be the blue Wave 5 and the move up was our white Wave 3 which means we started the white Wave 4 correction. In this scenario we assume the move down was only the yellow Wave A of a bigger correction as yellow ABC. The yellow B could be in but we think this would be a rather shallow and short B so we doubt it has finished already. We also want to make aware that we were very close to making a new ATH which could lead to the B Wave to overshoot and take out the ATH before starting the Wave C down.
We do lean towards the 2nd scenario where we would see a deeper correction as yellow ABC which would take us to the price area of 3300 USD to 4000 USD. For further clarity we need to observe the price action on the lower timeframes but at the moment it looks rather corrective than impulsive which would fit case 2 better. Short term we would like to see a bounce in either case.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
SOL - 4H Elliott Wave Analysis - 21.08.25Greetings, Solana is still holding strong and looking strong.
We assume the move up from the 3rd of August was an impulse displayed as green 5 wave move of which we finished Wave 1 and potentially Wave 2 as a red ABC.
We have two scenarios moving forward as the price action on the lower timeframes doesn't give us enough clarity to say which one is preferred. In either case we want to hold the Wave 2 support area which goes down to the 0.886 FIB At 161.99 USD.
Case 1:
Green Wave 2 is already finished in the red ABC and we are looking for an impulsive move to the upside in the 3rd Wave which should take us above 230 USD. Be aware that this 3rd Wave should happen quiet fast and aggressively.
Case 2:
The move down in the red ABC was only the Wave A of an extended correction.
The Wave B resistance area is between the 0.382 FIB at 188.74 USD and the 0.886 FIB at 205.96 USD. Be aware that we touched the 0.382 FIB which means the B wave could be in but we think the B wave isn't in yet because it would be a very shallow B which doesn't fit Solana's recent strong performance. We think a higher B wave is more likely.
As said we can't distinguish well between the two scenarios due missing price action on the lower timeframe. We hope to get more clarity soon. We also want to communicate a back up scenario in case we break the support area in which we would assume that we get a reset of the white Wave 2 in expanding flat meaning the green Wave 1 was an overshooting B Wave.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
XRP - 1H Elliott Wave Analysis - 21.08.25Welcome back to another XRP update.
The bullish count is still valid. Today we gonna look on the potential count on a lower timeframe.
We did retrace deep into our Wave 2 support area that we had on the chart in the last analysis already but it is still valid.
From the support area we saw a bounce which we count as either green 1 or yellow A Wave followed be a retracement in either the green 2 or yellow B. Currently we are looking for a bounce in the green Wave 3 or as the yellow Wave C.
The support area for this green impulse or yellow ABC is between the 0.382 FIB at 2.9227 USD and the 0.886 FIB at 2.8374 USD which cuts into our other support area.
The targets for the yellow Wave C or the green Wave 3 would be the 1 to 1 FIB at 3.0545 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 3.0949 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 3.1199 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 3.1603 USD.
We think the 1.382 FIB is the most likely but for the green count we would like to see the 1.618 FIB get hit. We do think the yellow ABC has a higher probability compared to the green count because the bounce from our last low during the 21th of August looks rather corrective than impulsive.
Be aware that if we break the 0.886 FIB at 2.7957 USD of the Wave 2 support area we are looking for a deeper retracement which would take us to 2.52 USD or even lower. In this scenario we would need to count the move up that we started in April as a diagonal or even some corrective structure to the upside.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
a flag breakout can be a bullish trade ideahere as per technical analysis , we can see several factor which can
aide a bullish take on TESLA stock on a very short term time frame .
1) pole and flag
2) prices above 20 Day sma ( h)
3) monthly pivot ( traditional ) crossover upside
Pole and flag : a pole and flag which has a decreasing volume during the flag formation , and not having much of retracement , aides the bullish view here
20 DSMA :till the time prices are above the 20 day sma (high) , we can keep our bullish trade intact ,
Pivot level monthly : recently the stock has crossed over monthly pivot level ( traditional ) , in an assuring manner
prices forming a floor above floor structure , where the prices are showing their initial motive towards upside , and then correcting in a slow manner in a retracement manner . a good time has been spent in the shadow of the impulsive motive ( upside ) , which creates a stronger base for the prices and shows no major selling has been happening here , and the profit booked at the higher levels are being bought out again ( re-entry into the market )
break of structure , the lesser candles demand zone which actually created a break of strcuture was respected recently ,
action plan , as soon as the flag pattern is breached on the upside , with a good volume candle , one can have a bullish entry here .
stoploss level at 330 , target price : 15% after the breakout of the flag.
ZRX/USD Main trend. Channel. Fractal.Logarithm. Time frame 1 month. Main trend. Idea for long-term trend orientation on a large timeframe.
0x is an infrastructure protocol that allows users to easily trade ERC20 tokens and other assets in the Ethereum blockchain without relying on centralized intermediaries such as traditional cryptocurrency exchanges.
The price has fallen by -93% from the high of pumping. Pump/dump channel. Possible fractal recurrence based on the logic of the previous secondary trend. The potential is quite significant.
Suitable for position trading. Rational to work from the average buy/sell price. The price is approaching the zone of previous lows, but the slippage can be by a significant percentage at the moment of “fear peak”.
Trading volume. Holder Addresses.
Pay attention to the minimum trading volume of the last year (this whole downtrend) compared to the past cycles. To understand why it is so, trace the main mass of large and medium addresses of this coin. Activity, time of creation.
This is what it looks like on a line chart if the “market noise” is removed.