Pivot Points
USDJPY - 21/8/25 - sell to buy With the strength in the dollar coming through - i am anticipating a sell to buy setup.
The messing declining consolidation over the last 2 days has some 15min imbalances that i want to be swept. there after the 4 hour demand zone zone below is where i want price to drop to for a buy setup.
+ ve:
1. There is a 4 hour zone below with big imbalance that needs to be taken out
2. market structure supported
3. no confirmed recent high as it was sweeps of price, which normally indicates that price will reach down to take out imbalances before rally up again.
-ve:
1. price is reaching into an efficient zone and may continue with the strength of the dollar.
Walmart Stock Trading in Bullish Trend – Upside Potential AheadWalmart Inc. (WMT) shares are currently exhibiting a bullish trend, maintaining upward momentum over recent trading sessions. While the stock has been consolidating in a range over the past few days, the broader outlook remains positive, suggesting potential for further gains in upcoming sessions.
Key Observations:
- Established Uptrend: Walmart's price action reflects sustained buying interest, keeping the stock in a bullish phase.
- Range-Bound Consolidation: Recent sideways movement indicates a temporary pause, often a precursor to the next directional move.
- Strong Support & Resistance Levels: The stock has formed clear reference points for traders to watch.
Price Projections:
- Upside Target at $105: A breakout above the current range could propel WMT toward the $105 resistance level, representing a significant upside opportunity.
- Key Support at $90: On the downside, the $90 level has emerged as a strong support zone. Any pullback is likely to find buying interest near this area.
Market Implications:
1. Bullish Continuation Likely: The consolidation within an uptrend typically resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend—in this case, upward.
2. Breakout Potential: A decisive move above the recent range high could accelerate buying momentum toward $105.
3. Risk Management Consideration: While the bias is bullish, a drop below $90 would signal weakening momentum and potentially invalidate the near-term upside scenario.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: Consider long positions on a confirmed breakout above the range, or on dips near $90 support.
- Stop Loss: A close below $90 would suggest a trend reversal, warranting exit from bullish positions.
- Target: $105 serves as the primary upside objective, with interim resistance levels to monitor along the way.
Final Thoughts:
Walmart’s stock appears poised for further gains, with $105 as the next key target. Traders should watch for a breakout from the current range while keeping an eye on the $90 support level for risk management. As always, confirmation through price action and volume will be crucial for validating the bullish thesis.
GBPUSD- 19/8/25 - bearish continuationDue to the strength shown in the dollar yesterday - this is a riskier trade as i am anticipating further strength in the dollar which will push down GBP even through it is not as correlated as the Euro.
+ve:
1. substructure break
2. equal low liquidity formed below
3. zone that equal low formed at is an area of inducement
4. 4 hour demand below that is my target
-ve:
1. dollar could reverse bearish
2. there is still an area of supply above that i expect price to get to
21.08.25 – XAUUSD Market Bias Strategy💡 How the Strategy Works:
Identify when a 4-hour candle opens above or below any of the key levels listed below.
The nearest level to the candle open will define the market bias:
Above level → Long Bias
Below level → Short Bias
If price touches a level but fails to hold, and the next 4-hour candle opens in the opposite direction, the bias flips.
Once flipped, the market is expected to target the previous level.
⛔ Stop-Loss / Trade Exit Rule:
After entering a setup, if any 1-hour candle opens in the opposite direction to the 4-hour candle bias where the setup was taken, close the trade manually to limit losses.
📍 Key Levels for Today:
Pivot: 3336.773
Supports: S1 = 3323.272 | S2 = 3298.058 | S3 = 3284.557
Resistances: R1 = 3361.987 | R2 = 3375.488 | R3 = 3400.702
📌 Reminder: Discipline over greed works — take the 50 pips, lock profits, and avoid unnecessary risk.
BTC - 4H Elliott Wave Analysis - 20.08.25Welcome back to another update, today the 4H timeframe instead of the 1H.
We're going to update ETH, XRP and SOL tomorrow.
Main Case:
We have extended to the downside in the correction but we didn't invalidate the immediate bullish count yet.
Due the deep correction we can't count this as Wave 2 anymore so we removed the impulsive count. If we get a move up now we assume it to be a Wave C in white of a potentially bigger move up as an ending diagonal which would potentially mark the top of the bullrun.
We also added a trendline breaking it would be the first sign of an incoming reversal. The move down looks rather corrective as to impulsive on the lower timeframes. If we take out the 115847 level it would increase the probabilities for the low being in.
Back-up Case:
If we break down lower we added a Support area between the 0.5 FIB at 109994 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 103047 USD which is a bullish set up but we have to warn that it has lower probability to take out the ATH afterwards than our current set up as it increases the probabilities for a count in which the recent move up was an ending diagonal that we finished already. But we do expect at least a bounce from it and would need to see if it is of corrective or impulsive nature to get more clarity.
Next target would be the 1.382 FIB at 108763 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 106273 USD.
Be aware that we have high impact news tomorrow at 14.30 (UTC +2) we get Unemployment Claims and at 15.45 (UTC +2) we get the Flash Manufacturing PMI which can shake up the market.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Gold Trade the range until it breaks Short Setup Here is a quick video on the current range and what I see going into Friday with the Fed speaking .
I have given some key levels and reaction zones for what could be a volatile reaction in the gold price .
Tools used Fibonacci, Time price opportunity charts , Anchored vwap and bars pattern .
Any questions then please leave in the comments section below the chart
Cardano – Accumulation Above Key PivotWe are currently seeing a phase of accumulation just above a major pivot level. Price has been consolidating within a tight range, suggesting that market participants are building positions.
The Volume Profile shows significant activity around this zone, confirming that a lot of volume has been exchanged here.
However, it’s important to note the liquidity gap just below the current range. If price breaks to the downside, there is very little volume supporting the order book in that region, which could lead to a very fast and sharp move lower. (Anchored volume profile of the last up trend)
Nifty Analysis EOD – August 20, 2025 – Wednesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – August 20, 2025 – Wednesday 🔴
Climbing Above 25K, But With Shaky Conviction
🗞 Nifty Summary
Nifty opened flat but slipped 50+ points in the opening minutes, sliding below the CPR zone to mark the day’s low at 24,929.70.
A sharp recovery followed — breaking the day’s high and reaching PDC (Previous Day Close) — only to get rejected and pulled back toward the CPR BC.
This 60-point rollercoaster played out within just 30 minutes, setting a volatile tone.
Later, after crossing 24,995, the index faced resistance at 25,020–25,030. Gradual progress pushed Nifty to 25,063, where it hit a trendline hurdle. Despite multiple attempts, it couldn’t hold convincingly above it, and the day ended at 25,050.55 — marginally positive (+ 70 points), but with effort showing fatigue.
👉 Intraday action tells the story: every breakout lacked conviction, with sharp throwbacks. While Nifty somehow managed to hold above 25k, Bank Nifty stayed weak, stuck near VWAP and below CPR (negative bias).
With weekly expiry tomorrow, sustainability above 24,990–25,030 and breakout PDH in the first half could trigger a short-covering rally targeting 25,190–25,240.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
📊 Intraday Walk
🔻 Early dip → Below CPR, day low at 24,929.70.
🔼 Quick rebound → Tested PDC, rejection pulled back to CPR BC.
⚔️ 60-point whipsaws within first 30 mins = High volatility.
🔼 Crossed 24,995 → Resistance at 25,020–25,030 zone.
🚧 Stalled at 25,063 → Trendline resistance.
📉 Multiple failed breakouts, sharp pullbacks.
✅ Closed 25,050.55, above 25k but not convincing.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,965.80
High: 25,088.70
Low: 24,929.70
Close: 25,050.55
Change: +69.90 (+0.28%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Green Candle (Close > Open).
Body: 84.75 points
Upper Wick: 38.15 points
Lower Wick: 36.10 points
Balanced wicks → Intraday tug-of-war.
📚 Interpretation
Buyers managed another close above 25,000.
Supply zone still active near 25,080–25,100 → sellers capping the rally.
Despite intraday volatility, close above open = continuation of bullish structure.
Candle suggests testing phase at 25k, not yet a clean breakout.
🕯️ Candle Type
A Spinning Top (bullish tilt) → indecision with buyers slightly ahead.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 205.36
IB Range: 61.95 → Small
Market Structure: Balanced
Trade Highlight:
⏰ 10:10 AM → Long Trigger → Target Hit (R:R = 1:2)
🕵️ Range & Bias
Support Zone: 24,920 – 24,890
Resistance Zone: 25,090 – 25,100
Bias: Cautiously Bullish → Above 25k, but conviction lacking.
📌 Support & Resistance Levels
🎚️ Resistance Zones
25,030 – 25,050
25,100
25,190
25,240
🎚️ Support Zones
24,995
24,955
24,920
24,890 – 24,880
💡 Final Thoughts
Nifty is grinding higher, but intraday volatility and failed follow-throughs highlight lack of conviction. For expiry, the 25,100 ceiling is crucial. A sustained move above could trigger short-covering firepower, while below 24,930, the downside gap-filling risk reopens.
"Levels hold the key — conviction comes only when price sustains beyond them."
✏️ Disclaimer
This is my personal analysis — not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
GBPAUD: Another Trap?! 🇬🇧🇦🇺
GBPAUD may finally start retracing after a test of a historic daily resistance.
I see a local intraday bearish reversal and anticipate a down movement
to 2.0914
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TCS Swing Trade Setup📊 Price Action & Trend Analysis
Analyzing market trends using price action, key support/resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to identify high-probability trade setups.
Always follow the trend and manage risk wisely!
Price Action Analysis Interprets Market Movements Using Patterns And Trends On Price Charts.
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USDT DOMINANCE Analysis (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
After hitting the green zone, it pumped more than 8%, which caused a correction in Bitcoin and altcoins. This bullish move in Tether dominance may continue for now.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
XAUUSD - 18/8/25 - BullishLast weeks bearish momentum was broken this morning with price moving in to the efficient area above.
Which this shift in in direction, my bias has move bullish to the next supply zone above the small imbalance.
I am looking for an entry near the bottom of the asian session, but when strong moves like this take place during a monday, it tends to rarely pull back intraday.
+ve:
1. imbalance above
2. direction of the asian session
-ve:
1. there is still a demand zone below with big imbalance
2. Gold moves based on market news and its still unclear.
The Kiwi Plunges as the RBNZ Deliver a Dovish CutToday's 25b bp cut was expected, but the RBNZ have revised their forecasts and lowered their expected terminal rate. I take a look at the important points from the statement, how markets reacted, and why futures market positioning could point to further downside for the New Zealand Dollar.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
20.08.25 – XAUUSD Market Bias Strategy💡 How the Strategy Works:
Identify when a 4-hour candle opens above or below any of the key levels listed below.
The nearest level to the candle open will define the market bias:
Above level → Long Bias
Below level → Short Bias
If price touches a level but fails to hold, and the next 4-hour candle opens in the opposite direction, the bias flips.
Once flipped, the market is expected to target the previous level.
⛔ Stop-Loss / Trade Exit Rule:
After entering a setup, if any 1-hour candle opens in the opposite direction to the 4-hour candle bias where the setup was taken, close the trade manually to limit losses.
📍 Key Levels for Today:
Pivot: 3325.390
Supports: S1 = 3305.315 | S2 = 3294.930 | S3 = 3274.855
Resistances: R1 = 3335.775 | R2 = 3355.850 | R3 = 3366.235
📌 Reminder: Discipline over greed works — take the 50 pips, lock profits, and avoid unnecessary risk. ALSO WE HAVE FOMC MINUTES TODAY, TRY NOT TO TRADE AT THAT TIME!
LLORENTE Y CUENCA, S.A. | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# LLORENTE Y CUENCA, S.A.
- Double Formation
* (A+)) - *Crossing - *Short Entry - *25EMA | Subdivision 1
* #Stop Loss - *(Range Allocation)) | No Size Up | Completed Survey
* 143bars, 1001d | Date Range Method - *(Downtrend Argument))
- Triple Formation
* (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2
* Weekly Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition | Subdivision 3
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings
* Stop Loss Feature Varies Regarding To Main Entry And Can Occur Unevenly
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 10.00 EUR
* Entry At 9.25 EUR
* Take Profit At 6.80 EUR
* (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
- Continuation Pattern | Not Valid
- Reversal Pattern | Not Valid
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
AUDCHF Short From ResistanceHello Traders
In This Chart AUDCHF 4 HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today AUDCHF analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes AUDCHF market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on AUDCHF Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Just like WeBull... but more riskyAs we see from the chart we are breaking out of the downtrend and trying to find resistance.
The most important thing to watch is how the support is found when retesting, if any at all.
Key level for profit taking is at $96 and $102. Stay focused as it could lose support quick. But, from todays candle I think the odds are in my favor.
$XAUUSD Mark-Up XAUUSD LTF Analysis - Aug 19
Analysis Notes:
On the 4H timeframe, the price has entered a ranging structure and is currently within the 4H IFC.
My expectation is that after the IFC is consumed, the price will move towards the weak high and the liquidity levels.
You can look for entry confirmations on lower timeframes.
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Break of Structure VS Liquidity Grab. How to Identify Valid BoS
The main problem with break of structure trading is that you can easily confuse that with a liquidity grab.
But don't worry.
There is a secret SMC price model that will help you to confirm a break of structure in a second.
Learn smart money concepts trading secrets and a simple strategy to trade break of structure on any forex pair.
Let's study a break of structure that I spotted on AUDUSD forex pair.
We see that the market is bullish on a daily time frame and the price has just violated a previous high with a break of structure.
The issue with that is the fact that such a violation can easily be a liquidity grab and a bullish trap .
Buying the market immediately after a BoS, we can incur a huge loss .
We need something that would help us to accurate validate that.
Fortunately, there is a simple price model in SMC that will help.
After you spotted a break of structure on a daily time frame,
use a 4h time frame for its validation.
After a BoS on a daily time frame, the market usually starts retracing , setting a new local high.
To confirm that it is not a trap, you will need a break of THAT structure on a 4H time frame.
It will increase the probabilities that the entire bullish movement that you see on a daily is not a manipulation.
Here is what exactly we need.
After the price violated a daily structure and closed above that, we see a minor intraday retracement on a 4h time frame.
A bullish violation of the last high there is our BoS confirmation and a clear indicator of the strength of the buyers.
You can execute a buy trade, following a simple strategy then.
Set a buy limit order on a retest of a broken high on a 4H,
a stop loss should be below the last higher low,
a take profit is based on the next supply zone on a daily.
To avoid the traps, a single time frame is not enough for profitable trading break of structure.
Learn to integrate multiple time frames in smart money concepts trading. It will help you make thousands of pips weekly.
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$EURUSD 15m Mark-UpEURUSD LTF Analysis - Aug 19
Analysis Notes:
The 15 minute timeframe is completely ranging, with a weak upper high, and the previous low had also caused a weak high to form.
Basically, as long as there’s no clear direction, trading on this timeframe in lower timeframes (1 minute) is not suitable.
If there’s any update regarding EUR, I’ll post it.
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