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Melt-Up into FOMC - Post FED Expect CorrectionMore all-time highs I shouldn't be upset (and I'm really not as the portfolio continues to make new YTD highs) But technically, it is extremely frustrating to see nothing more than slow grind higher after slwo grind higher on the indexes - and also see blowout moves on individual stocks (ORCL, GOOGL, AVGO for example) Rising Wedge still hasn't rolled over, resistance at 6500 hasn't been a wall yet 50 Day Moving Average is now over 90 bars from price. I could see price action melting up into a crescendo or peak pre, during, or post FOMC and then fading lower after to find some technical levels I've been eyeing for weeks Enjoy the melt-up, just be ready for some action and volatility in the indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, and the bond/yield markets I won't complain about YTD highs, but it's the caution ahead that I don't want to be surprised by in the coming weeks Plan accordingly - I'll continue to grind through it the best and safest way I know how Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
Dow at record highs, outperfoms peers! But are risks brewing?The Dow Jones DJIA surged to new record highs, driven by defensive sector strength and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Dow outperformed due to its heavier weighting in defensive sectors (industrials, financials, consumer staples), which are favoured during economic uncertainty and falling yields. Technical analysis suggests further upside potential, as investors seek stability and dividends in Dow components amid lingering recession risks. However, key support levels must hold to sustain the rally. The Dow has completed a V-shaped recovery, breaking above previous double-top highs from 2024/2025 (45,150), now acting as support. An open triangle pattern was identified, with the current move likely the fifth wave to the upside. The index trades above all major moving averages, confirming bullish momentum, but RSI shows hidden bullish divergence, supporting the case for continued upside only if support holds after a pullback. Dow has critical support at 45k, must hold to maintain bullish momentum. A drop below 45,581 could trigger a correction. Short-term upside shows 47k, with a major Fibonacci cluster and technical inflexion in focus. Intermediate levels sit at 46300/45900/45640, with important long-term Targets at 45k, 49500, 50k, 53k. Risks & Potential Scenarios Divergence: Despite strong momentum, technical divergence suggests a possible corrective move if the Dow falls below 45581. Bullish : Holding above 45581 and 45k supports further upside toward 47k and beyond. Bearish : A break below 45581 could trigger a deeper pullback before any renewed rally. Market Sentiment : The bond market’s caution contrasts with stock market optimism, so stay vigilant. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US30Long
by ThinkMarkets
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he? Let’s look at what the media ignores: 🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company. Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse. The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged. So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing. The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
SP:SPX
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Bitcoin Cycles: History Repeating Itself?Bitcoin has always moved in cycles — a strong impulsive rally 📈 (1), followed by a healthy correction 🔻 (2), then a breakout above the previous high 🔓 (3). Looking at the chart, the current price action is following this same rhythm once again. After the last correction, BTC bounced strongly, retested previous highs, and is now consolidating before its next potential move. If this pattern continues to repeat, the next leg could take Bitcoin toward the $140,000 target 🎯 — aligning perfectly with the upper bound of the long-term channel. 👉 The past doesn’t guarantee the future, but BTC’s structure suggests the market might just be writing the same story again. 💬 What’s your bias here? Are you bullish or waiting for a deeper pullback? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
18
S&P500 | Daily Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders. Welcome to today's trade idea by GTradingMethod. 🧐 Market Overview: I’ve opened a short on the cash500 (S&P 500) at 6521. All GTradingMethod variables have been met, which means this trade setup qualifies under my system. Additional confluences suggesting weaker buying strength include: - RSI making lower highs while price pushed higher highs. - Volume tapering off toward the latter part of the rally. - MACD on sell signal The only hesitation is that money flows have not decreased in the later stages of this move — but rules are rules. My edge is probability-based, so when my variables align, I must take the trade consistently. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/reward = 9.2 Entry price = 6520 Stop loss price = 6544 Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6370 Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6215 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: A high RR doesn’t make a trade safer — it simply reflects how far the market could move relative to your risk. Always focus on process and probability, not just the potential payout. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts - I would like to hear them. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
1
BULLISH Tone for EURUSDEURUSD attempts to sell are still met with a rejection from buyers and at the same time buy attempts are slowed by sellers. Despite Powell changing his Hawkish stance, the dollar is held back by good GDP and traders already anticipate NFP growth which means Hawkish for the dollar. So this week if THE 1.17200 resistance zone holds the pair will likely retest deeper. Therefore, any better than expected NFP will be bad for Powell dovish remarks. ISM is expected to be out tomorrow and I am looking forward to more buy positions if it comes out lower than expected. Buys momentum seem to still be there. If NFP confirms buy we are likely to reach 1.18900 zone.
Long
by WisdomArnold
1
USDJPY Deat Cat Bounce at play after Jackson Hole remarks?In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant labour, which is driving wage growth and sustaining inflationary pressures. Ueda’s Hawkish Stance: Ueda maintained a hawkish tone, noting that wage hikes in larger Japanese companies are now spreading to smaller firms, strengthening expectations for continued inflation. This commentary increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike, giving the yen additional support. Market Reaction: Prior to the Symposium, traders were positioned for a potential rate cut by year-end. However, after Ueda’s remarks, futures market pricing suggests the odds of an October rate cut are now evenly split at 50-50. Technicals: Open triangle completion may trigger further downside after the post-JHS drop. Current rally to the upside could be a relief rally, part of a potential Dead Cat Bounce (DCB). This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Euro gains ground, US GDP revised higher, German CPI nextThe euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand. Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%. Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release. The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.
by OANDA
Bitcoin | H1 Double Bottom | GTradingMethodHello Traders. Welcome to today’s trade idea by GTradingMethod. 🧐 Market Overview: Bitcoin is trending lower while the RSI is forming higher lows, creating positive RSI divergence — a bullish signal. I’ll be watching for the hourly candle to close within range alongside confirmation from other GTradingMethod indicators before entering. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 3.1 Entry: 109,104 Stop Loss: 108,234 Take Profit 1 (50%): 111,494 Take Profit 2 (50%): 112,453 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: RSI divergence can often signal a momentum shift before price action confirms the move. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and share your thoughts — I’d love to hear them. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by GTradingMethod
Fed rate cut timing: September or October? The Jackson Hole Symposium has set the stage for renewed downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, as investors increasingly position for a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September. However, Morgan Stanley assigns only a 50% probability to such a move, suggesting that a September cut is far from guaranteed. Market focus is also turning to the prospects of a rate cut in October too. The market is assigning only a small chance of two cuts in a row by the Fed. Perhaps Morgan Stanely’s outlook implies the Fed may delay the widely expected September cut until October instead. In practice, the market impact could be similar either way. With a softer dollar and stronger equities if Powell signals in September that easing is on the way the following month.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets
S&P (CASH500) | 30min Inverse Head & Shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders. Welcome to today’s trade idea by GTradingMethod. 🧐 Market Overview: Following Friday’s sharp rally after Jackson Hole, the S&P 500 may be forming a bull flag. If confirmed, this setup could drive an equal measured move higher, with the inverse head & shoulders pattern acting as a potential breakout structure. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 3.6 Entry: 6460.1 Stop Loss: 6453.8 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6481 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6489 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Always wait for confirmation of breakout patterns to avoid false moves. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
The reason we still have EURUSD bulls in play If you check my chart I have used the 4HR TF to show the reaction points well. The reason I am maintaining a bullish stance is because of Powell's comments on rate cut. The comments indicated a dovish tone while at the same time signaling uncertainty in the policy rate path. With these comments the dollar still remains at risk. Therefore any sell offs are just retests. The only major event this week is the QGDP which is expected to rise. A higher than expected will only push the pair for retest to the marked levels.
Long
by WisdomArnold
2
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that. 📈 Powell Drops the Mic Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns. But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted? In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too. That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ). The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming. 🚧 The Job Market Pivot Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead. The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data. For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot. 🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July . Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years. Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile. 🎈 Bubble Talk, Again Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean. But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks. Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead. 🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high. Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance. If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble. Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else. 🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours. The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof. It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast. 🏁 The Bottom Line Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs. But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started. Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
EUR/USD Long Setup: Riding the Wave After Powell’s Dovish TalkEUR/USD Long Opportunity Post-Powell Speech Following Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium, the EUR/USD is showing strong bullish potential. With the pair currently trading at 1.16626, I’m looking to enter buy positions targeting a move up to 1.18295. Key Points: Trade Direction: Strictly bullish. I see no reason to sell given the USD weakness post-Powell. Entry Zone: Buying opportunities around 1.16626 or on a confirmed breakout above 1.1700. Target: Aiming for 1.18295 (key resistance level). Stop Loss: Place below 1.1597 to manage risk. Market Context: The dovish Fed outlook supports EUR/USD upside, making this an ideal week for capturing momentum and passing prop firm trading challenges. Risk Management: Use 1-2% position sizing to navigate volatility and ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio (targeting at least 2:1). This setup offers a high-probability trade for swing traders and those aiming to pass funding challenges this week. Stay disciplined and monitor price action around key levels. Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Always conduct your own analysis and consult a financial advisor.
Long
by Tarsi_Fx
1
FOMC mins could be rates catalyst if Powell is neutral at JHSTraders are laser-focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could prove to be the most significant market-moving event ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium if Powell offers no insights. With markets already pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, the tone and details within the minutes will be crucial. The last FOMC meeting saw a strong division among members, with the decision to hold rates steady hinging on strong jobs data—a data point that was later revised downward, fueling speculation about a potential shift in the Fed’s outlook. The upcoming minutes offer the Fed an opportunity to clarify its stance, especially in light of the softer jobs numbers and mixed inflation signals. Traders will be watching closely for any signs that the Fed is becoming more dovish, which could reinforce expectations for a September cut, or for hints of caution that might temper those hopes. Ultimately, while Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole will set the broader policy tone, the FOMC minutes tonight may provide the first real clues about how the Fed is weighing recent economic developments and what that means for rate policy in the months ahead. The market is more dovish than the Fed’s own projections, so any hawkish signals could prompt a repricing. Gold is inversely correlated with the dollar and Fed policy. If Powell is less dovish, gold could see downside, with key support at $3,270 and potential for a move down to $2,934 if the triangle pattern breaks lower. Upside targets, if the pattern breaks higher, are $3,773–$3,785, with a 66% statistical chance of reaching the measured move. The current price action suggests a symmetrical triangle, which is a neutral pattern but slightly favours continuation of the prevailing trend (bullish in this case). Watch for a break of $3,270 for downside or a move above the triangle for upside momentum. RSI divergence and an ending wedge pattern hint at a possible reversal, so traders should stay alert for shifts following the FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
2
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
Powell Delivers at Jackson Hole - NVDA and PCE Up NextNearly a 200% ATR move today in the S&P SPY didn't close beyond all-time highs QQQ didn't close beyond all-time highs DIA did close above all-time highs IWM continues its strong rally for August I'm noticing some serious rotation into small cap, mid cap, and seeing the markets allocate outside of Mag7, Tech, and AI Powell all but guaranteed a September rate cut and the market loved it - yet prices aren't necessarily higher (yet). I still think the Aug-Oct window is ripe for a small correction and pullback to offer up better positioning for end of year NVDA Earnings next week Wednesday US PCE and Core PCE Friday to close out the month I'm curious if the SPX 6500 resistance level will continue to hold firm - let's see Thanks for watching!!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ChrisPulver
ADA/USDT | Cardano Breaks All Targets – Next Stop: Above $1?By analyzing the Cardano (ADA) chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price has surged exactly as expected, beautifully hitting all three targets at $0.85, $0.93, and $1! This move delivered an impressive 48% return. Following Jerome Powell’s remarks about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, Cardano saw renewed demand and has already risen from $0.82 to $0.91 so far. I expect this bullish momentum to continue, with a potential break and hold above the $1 level soon. Hope you made the most out of this analysis! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
EUR/USD eyes rebound ahead of Powell speechThe euro has come under mild pressure in recent days, weighed down by the dollar’s rebound and the lack of progress on Ukraine. Today’s spotlight is firmly on Powell. If he manages to steer market expectations back toward a coin-flip for a September rate cut, EUR/USD could slip towards the 1.1500 support zone — a key level that i think is unlikely to give way in the near term. However, a clear shift in Powell’s tone toward the dovish side could lift EUR/USD back into the 1.18s, eventually opening the path towards 1.20. Over the longer run, the outlook for the euro remains constructive. The ECB is largely finished with rate cuts, while Germany is rolling out a sizeable fiscal programme. Although the stimulus may only begin to show modest results later this year, its full impact is expected to become more meaningful in 2026 and beyond. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
SPX500 Market Outlook | Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in FocusSPX500 – Overview U.S. Sectors in Spotlight Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Gathering Wall Street is awaiting confirmation of a potential September interest rate cut when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday — a potentially pivotal event for markets, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors. This year’s gathering comes after a week of mixed inflation data, as consumer and wholesale price reports gave conflicting signals on how well the U.S. economy is handling President Trump’s import tariffs, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook. After cutting rates by 50 bps in September 2024 and 25 bps in both November and December, the Fed has since held steady. Rising expectations of another cut next month have buoyed homebuilders, banks, and retailers, though a hawkish surprise from Powell could weigh on these sectors. 🔎 Technical Outlook Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below 6389, downside pressure remains, targeting 6366 and, if broken, extending toward 6321. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed 1H/4H close above 6389 would open the way toward 6406 – 6425, with a stronger push possible toward 6468. 📍 Key Levels Pivot: 6389 Support: 6366 – 6341 – 6321 Resistance: 6406 – 6425 – 6468 ⚠️ Expect heightened volatility during Powell’s Jackson Hole speech — risk management is essential.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
BTC stuck 112k–115k: fade the bounce, watch Powell__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating below stacked resistances (115k–117k) after failing under 124k. Price is retesting a liquidity pocket at 112k while HTF supports still hold — an orderly pullback. Momentum: 📉 Bearish intraday within an overall bullish HTF trend — ongoing correction below 115k. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/6H/1D) : 114.6k–115.0k; 116.8k–117.0k; 119.9k–120.0k - Supports (4H/1D/1W) : 112.0k–112.3k; 109.0k–109.5k; 98.5k–99.5k Volumes: Overall normal; moderate on 4H — active pressure without extremes. Multi-timeframe signals: Intradays (15m→6H) trending down; 12H/1D/1W still up; aggregate trend down → correction under 114.7k/115k, repeated defenses at 112k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: SELL (moderate risk-off) — confirms intraday weakness; caution while < 115k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary trend still constructive, but intraday flow is selling — favor “sell the bounce” into 115k until that pivot is reclaimed. Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 115k; invalidation if 4H close > 115k . Opportunities: - 🔻 Rejection short at 114.6k–115.0k → target 113.0k then 112.2k (invalid. > 115.6k). - 🔼 Reaction long on a 111.8k–112.1k sweep with confirmation → target 113.5k then 114.7k (invalid. < 111.6k). - 🔼 Break & hold > 115k (4H) → extension to 116.8k–117.0k then 120k (invalid. < 114.2k). Risk zones / invalidations: - A firm break < 112k (4H) unlocks 111.2k/109.3k; - 1D close < 109.3k = risk of STRONG SELL toward 100k/98.5k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Powell at Jackson Hole today → could drive a 112k break or a squeeze > 115k. - US margin debt at a record (~$1.02T) → fragility if volatility spikes. - Inflation watch: rising oil and Japan CPI > 2% → temper near-term Fed easing hopes. Action plan: - Primary plan (rejection short) : Entry 114.6k–115.0k / Stop 115.6k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 112.0k → R/R ~2–2.8 depending on fill. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday timeframes keep correcting inside the 112k–117k range, while HTFs remain intact above 109.3k–112k. 12H/1D/1W: Uptrend structure intact above 109.3k; 115k is the pivot — reclaim > 115k reopens 116.8k–117k then 120k amid “normal” volume (no capitulation). 6H/4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Lower highs/lows; compression under 114.7k/115k; repeated defenses at 112k; a 30m bullish divergence (contrarian) could fuel a bounce to 113.1k–113.5k without changing trend yet. Major divergences/confluences: Support confluence 111.8k–112.3k (seen across 6 TFs) vs priority sell zone 114.6k–115.0k — key axis for the next directional move. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Powell’s speech, elevated market leverage, and derivatives-led on-chain dynamics frame a cautious risk-off backdrop that can catalyze a range breakout. Macro events: Powell today with a split Fed → likely cautious guidance; US margin debt at record (~$1.02T) → vulnerability if vol spikes; rising oil + Japan CPI > 2% → dampen near-term Fed easing. Bitcoin analysis: Testing ~112k; many anticipate a sweep and quick buyback; weekly Kijun near ~99.4k echoes the 98.5k–100k HTF support; fresh USDT minted to Binance/Bitfinex suggests added liquidity/volatility. On-chain data: Derivatives-led market (elevated OI then ~-$2.6B purge); slowing spot inflows despite recent ATH; no clear capitulation → downside more mechanical than spot-driven. Expected impact: NEUTRAL SELL bias while < 115k; macro headlines may trigger either a false break below 112k or a squeeze above 115k — manage risk tightly around events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday correction below 115k, HTF structure still intact above 109.3k. - Trend: 📉 Bearish intraday / 📈 Constructive on HTF. - Key setup: Sell rejection at 114.6k–115k toward 112k, or tactical long on defended sweep of 112k. - Macro: Powell + high leverage = elevated risk of directional spikes. Stay disciplined: execute the plan, respect invalidations, and adapt quickly around headlines. ⚠️ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
1
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: Key risks for SPX, DXY, and goldTraders are watching and waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The baseline expectation is that Powell will avoid committing to any move at the September meeting. Instead, he is likely to repeat that decisions will depend on the full set of economic data released between now and then. If Powell were to even weakly signal a rate cut in September, the S&P 500 could rally. However, the reaction may be limited since markets are already pricing in a high probability of easing. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see a 71% chance of a quarter-point cut in September. Looking beyond September, a hint of rate cuts in October, November, or December could weaken the U.S. dollar and provide support for gold.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets