Today is the first of two days of Jerome Powell press conferences. Depending on the comments, it is possible that we will see larger swings that will provide new opportunities. At this stage we have no deals and are not looking for new entries. We are looking at buying opportunities in EURUSD after a correction or after a break and test of 1.0700. We will...
The Canadian dollar is coming off a relatively quiet week but that could change as there a host of key releases this week. Ivey PMI kicks things off later today, followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and the February employment report on Friday. Canada's Ivey PMI recorded a massive rebound in January, climbing from 33.4 all the way to 60.1...
CPI data is tomorrow and yet if Feds pivots still alive. Bad news the inflation still high and slowly cooling down but not at eased. This is a cause of disinflation.. we supposed not to go there way too fast ! This is big reason for markets to crash. Overall we should expect the big fall pay attention for the CPI news tomorrow morning This will be the biggest...
The questions in recent times... - Is the federal reserve going to slow down on future rate increases? - Could we see a cut in rates in 2023? - With terminal rates still undecided, could it be revised higher? Perhaps the height of the Central Banker of the US Federal Reserve could be a leading indicator of interest rate decisions! (I'm not being serious, but it...
The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%. The pound is recovering from a nasty slide of almost 400 points, in which it dropped below the 1.20 line for the first time since Jan. 23. The equity markets were nervous ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks at an event in Washington on...
GOLD is described as a safe haven against war, inflation, and banking collapse as we can see on the daily chart. The 2 fat red candles are basically 3 interest rate decisions in two consecutive days which were all hikes. Uptrend support shows signs of resuming the previously steady uptrend. The dovish comments from Powel can be interpreted as neutral, in our case...
The euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read...
Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply. Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates...
Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations...
Hello traders! As stated in our previous post, linked in the description, we are following two main scenarios on S&P500. According to the bullish scenario, the 5 waves labeled in the chart should form a leading diagonal for wave i of C in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. In this case we should now retrace in wave ii of C. According to the...
📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - JPY for the Yearly Close Of course, the breakout here can be bought after so much consolidation but it takes time. Buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Japanese fiscal and monetary policy is easy enough to map. Even more than that Kuroda and Suga are well seasoned, the logical link here is for USDJPY...
The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. ...
Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion...
Once AAPL broke $128.65 last Friday, I've been patiently waiting on a retest. Today at 10:45 we retested, dipped below level and reclaimed it and then retest it again at 12 and has a strong upside move. With this context, the rejection wicks on the 1h candles and the fact that we've broken out of this channel that apple has had for a few weeks, I am anticipating...
Markets are not moving much. They slowed down after some dollar weakness over the last two trading days. We see US stocks coming down from resistance ahead of Powell today, so it appears that investors are waiting on more details before they may position themselves for a breakout. Will Powell be hawkish or more neutral with comments is the question. I think he may...
15m chart below and we broke above $130 at market open but we wiped all the gains and ended right at this key psychological level and 50 SMA in anticipation for Powell tomorrow and CPI Thursday. If we hold $130, I’m expecting a violent move up. Otherwise, since we have reclaimed this $130 level and closed at the lows, I’m expecting more downside kicked off by...
SPX looking very relaxed coming into the week. The DarkLord Powell speaks on Tuesday so I anticipate Monday ES1 and SPX are non-directional until we hear what happens on Tuesday.
✅2022 was a difficult year but it has almost ended, so it is natural for us to ask what has 2023 in stock for us! The answer lays in the structure that we both love and hate and it's the FED. Yes, the markets are now governed not by fundamentals and value but by the decision of a bunch of people in suits at the FED. However, we are traders and our job is not to...