A good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals. Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he...
On Wednesday, we saw the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2023. This led to a low in price of the USD everywhere, but only within an hour. Then we see a rise again in USDCHF. We are currently in a downward movement of H1, as the resistance trend line has been broken. The levels before the start of Powell's press conference were...
Tonight we are expecting a Fed Interest Rate Decision! No change in the interest rate is expected, but there will be movement! Jerome Powell's comments at the press conference will be extremely important! After today, many opportunities will be sought based on this news. We are looking for a higher probability in advance and we have expectations. Our...
Hi, bulls are approaching 110, looks like we might see that level ahead of Wednesday,s FOMC. Buying dips towards 108,60 Stop below 108,35 target 110 Good luck
As we mentioned in yesterday's analysis, we saw an important day for the USD. After Jerome Powell's speech, the dollar rose everywhere. Did we expect it? See our latest analysis: AUDUSD EURGBP USDJPY Now the NFP data is coming! We expect to see a continuation of EURUSD to 1.1917! The resistance zone is 1.1996-1.2020. And the minimum stop is over...
It's been a few weeks since EUR/USD broke below the neckline of its head and shoulders and the response since has been a little sluggish, to say the least. The trend was starting to look very favourable for the dollar as it enjoyed a bit of a resurgence, taking out the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern in the process. Since then, it came back and tested...
Stocks really took a dive today. It seems the S&P is fearful of what Fed Chair Powell may have to say today. Recall that part of the reason that stocks are selling off is that due to increased bond yields, investors are fearful of higher interest rates, which would dampen the easy money party that stocks have been enjoying for years. We are at a support level...
From the beginning of the year, a downtrend in H4 gold began. It represents a correction of the rise in 2020. And the main question always, is it time to buy or will we see another drop? It will become clear today! We are currently facing resistance from the trend line, as well as resistance from previous peaks. This is an opportunity to look for a new...
Stocks have retraced significantly in what appears to be a megaphone-like pattern. For the pedantic, a proper megaphone pattern requires higher highs as well, which we don't seem to have, but the spirit of the megaphone pattern is expanding volatility which we do see, especially on the down side. These current levels are a make-or-break for stocks. The level...
The Dax has lost it's upward momentum after having made all time highs on Monday as global equities rose due to Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package. However, downside risks remain due to the continued impact of the pandemic on the global economy as US inflation came in at 1.4% vs 1.5% forecast. We await Powell's speech later today for any significant...
📌 ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 27.01.2021 What is in play here? Buyers depriving shorts of their rewards and not allowing the breakdown ahead of Fed. Strategically speaking, this looks and smells a lot like a slingshot. The strong rejection points towards the Kiwi inflows after RBNZ let slip that rate cuts are unlikely. On the Fed side, dollar...
📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 28.01.2021 In this position, we have managed to build a solid floor at the 1.207x area and as widely expected Buyers fought like a lion to defend their jurisdiction. The ECB on the wires attempted to talk down the currency via threatening room for rate cuts, classic jawboning from Knot in attempt to provide shelter. They...
📌 ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 27.01.2021 In the middle of Fed, let's update the Gold chart! Buyers are in the habit of unpinning , by choosing the quiet break of $1,860 and then allowing a quiet congestion to justify this collection of energy based on two premises: 1️⃣ The bottom formation has taken place ahead of the event. 2️⃣ The troops...
📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 26.01.2021 An important chart update for euro here, which does not require to create a decision, but shows how price rolls forwards undr the direction of price drivers. It advanced quite far and cramped the highs. Finally there is another opportunity for loading on the 1.212x pivot. For the risk cocktail we have Conte...
📌 ridethepig | Euro for ECB In some chart annotations, we have already covered the need for a pullback yesterday and to either use that to build the position centrally or lines aimed at mapping the flow for those covering on the pullback. The main point was to gain momentum for the slingshot after the 1.207x bids held. > Global inflation is starting...
📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 01.19.2021 We should strategically protect our position, not a sickly stop or weak-looking exposure, etc. As you can see, the bids at 1.207x held and buyers as widely expected fought like a lion to defend their jurisdiction. This was not the act of Christian kindness or pity or etc, this is a strategic point that...
📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 18.01.2021 Here to kick the week off with the first moves we have buyers choosing to defend the 1.207x bids, protecting the support level and relieving the channel structure of this duty so that it can become a bit more appealing possibly for a slingshot. The next moves higher in EURUSD can be the start of a swing that...